08:05 PM MLB N.L. Wildcard Playoff [934] New York Mets +112 (Bumgarner/Syndergaard)
08:00 PM CFB [301] Georgia Southern -8.5 -110
06:30 PM SOC [208206] Atletico PR -104 over Chapecoense (soccer - BRAZIL - SERIE A)
06:30 PM SOC [208217] TOTAL o2.5 +110 (Gremio vrs Vitoria) (soccer - BRAZIL - SERIE A)
1 unit bet pays 15.67 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 17-169, -33.12 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...and this 5 teamer, due to rain-shortened game became a 4 teamer on Sept 29.
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074 Goooooood Luck ALLLL!!!!
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The opening of the 2016 MLB Playoffs provided a lot of drama in Toronto last night, including the rather curious handling of the end-game pitching by Buck Showalter, and if anything that can help to get the proper frame of mind for baseball bettors going forward ? so many of the outcomes the next few weeks will have major swings based on a single decision, or a single pitch. But if we get the proper value there is the opportunity to win through the cycle, and that value appears to be there in Giants/Mets tonight.
As was the case last season Eric Strasser, author of Betting Baseball for Profit...will be joining in until the final out of the World Series. The collaborations worked rather well last October, and the dynamics of the teams involved this year will bring ample opportunity, with some tough decisions for the odds makers and markets to make. I will be mixing Eric?s ideas into the flow here, using italics to designate what has come directly from him, and we are now in full agreement for tonight at the current trading. That was not quite the case at the get-go, but now that the Mets are available at an underdog rate of return it will be #934 New York (8:05 Eastern) in play, my own ratings making it work at even money or better.
Now time for Mr. Strasser - I made the number Mets -123 here so immediately bet a little Mets -108 when it opened. I made the bet expecting Giants money as Bumgarner will almost always get bet in a standalone primetime game just based on reputation, but also knowing the numbers point the other way. I?ll complete my unit at best available price before game time.
There?s nothing here pointing to Bumgarner other than reputation. Syndergaard has been the better pitcher all year. 10.7 K/9 vs. 10.0 BB/9 very close but 2.1 vs 2.2. 51% GB rate vs 39.6%. Better hard hit ball rate, xFIP 2.67 vs. 3.54. Thor sweeps the metrics, and to make an analogy everyone will understand, that difference in xFIP is comparable to a -7 spread in an NFL game. It?s a big deal.
The Mets bullpen is deeper and more consistent with Salas, Reed and Familia all throwing well down the stretch, while the Giants problems have been well documented. The Mets struggled early in the year against LHP but Reyes (1.200 OPS) and Rene Rivera (.935 OPS) have changed that. Giants will try and run on Syndergaard but their best base stealer (Nunez) is probably not going to play.
I?ve heard people point to the Giants ?experience? as a reason to bet them, but the Mets were in the World Series last year so I can?t see the edge there. Can Bumgarner summon his post-season magic one more time and win the game himself? Sure he can, although his fastball has lost four MPH since he?s thrown a playoff game. That?s not the way to bet it.
Let me add to that notion of Bumgarner?s current stuff vs. those memories of October?s past ? since the All Star break he has worked to a 5-5/3.80 tune over 15 starts and 97 innings. That was all. He was solid and dependable, but he was not special, and the market surge on this game is trying to put him into the category of being special. Meanwhile the team behind Bumgarner has only gone 30-42 since the All Star break, which has this game now being mislabeled, a price sticker that we can take advantage of.
----------
Wednesday comp play is the Over in tonight's Georgia Southern-Arkansas State meeting from Jonesboro.
The Eagles had last week off, so they should be ready to go tonight against the winless Red Wolves. Last time Georgia Southern was on field, they lost at Western Michigan, 49-31 in a game that easily went Over the posted total.
The Eagles have been averaging 33 points per game through their first 4 games, and if they can hit that average, there is a strong chance we see the Over cash in.
The Red Wolves have not won a game this season, so they will be desperate for the win in front of their home crowd, which means they may a few trick plays in their game plan this evening.
One thing for sure, Arkansas State is allowing an average of 36 points per game, so they will need to try and keep Georgia Southern out of the end zone tonight.
My guess is we see enough points for this game to head Over the total.
2* GEORGIA SOUTHERN-ARKANSAS STATE OVER
---
?The O?s went to prom w/ the hottest chick in school then locked her in the car when they got there.?
I would love to take credit for what was the tweet of the night. But this one was courtesy of former big leaguer and now MLB Network analyst Eric Byrnes (@byrnes22).
In case you somehow missed it, Tuesday October 4 is the date Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter completely lost his mind.
I?m sorry, but for those who are trying their best to defend Showalter?s decision to leave closer Zach Britton in the bullpen, you simply haven?t got a leg to stand on.
There is no acceptable rationale for this disastrous maneuver on the part of Showalter. Britton had to pitch in this baseball game. If it?s a regular season game and it?s tied and you?re on the road, then maybe and only maybe is it okay to not bring Britton into the game.
But this wasn?t a regular season game. It was win or go home, and the Orioles are now going home.
I reluctantly was accepting Showalter?s decision to hold off on bringing in Britton prior to the eleventh inning. But going to Brian Duensing and then Ubaldo Jimenez with the season on the line was nothing short of stupid.
Duensing actually did his job by retiring the only man he faced, but bringing in a guy who had pitched zero high leverage innings this season was shaky. Going to Ubaldo next was just plain nuts.
Just so you don?t think I?m Monday morning quarterbacking here, there are numbers that support my claim that not only was Jimenez a bad choice, he was actually the worst possible choice of those remaining in the Baltimore bullpen.
Yeah, I know, Ubaldo pitched well down the stretch. But if you look at those starts and basically his entire season, you?ll see something pretty plain as day right off the bat. The worst inning for Jimenez? Drum roll, please. If you guessed his first inning, you win the grand prize.
Jimenez was absolutely horrible all season in the first inning. The numbers are almost incredibly awful. Ubaldo was the absolute last resort to come in as a reliever in this game. And yet, with a guy who actually has a shot to win the Cy Young Award ready to go, Buck Showalter instead hands the ball to his worst option.
The only good news for Showalter is that this happened in the play-in game rather than in the seventh game of the ALCS or the World Series. Nevertheless, Showalter?s decision to never get his best arm into an elimination game ranks as one of the worst in game decisions I have ever seen or will see.
----
Hurricane Matthew is coming and it doesn't look good for those on the southeast coast. As a result, a number of college football game are expected to be canceled or pushed up. And those contests that are taking place inland but still pegged to get hit by bad weather have nearly all be bet under the total.
Here's a link to the current path and timing of the storm.
Games potential impacted include:
Army at Duke - 3:30 pm ET
Syracuse at Wake Forest - 7 pm ET
Virginia Tech at North Carolina - 3:30 pm ET
Notre Dame at NC State - Noon ET
Houston at Navy - 3 pm ET
East Carolina at South Florida - Noon ET
Florida State at Miami - 8 pm ET
Charlotte at Florida Atlantic - 3:30 pm ET
Georgia at South Carolina - 7:30 pm ET
LSU at Florida - Noon ET
Tulane at Central Florida - CANCELED, Moved to Nov. 5
UMass at Old Dominion - Moved to Friday, 8 pm ET
-------------
Oklahoma vs. Texas - Dallas
Saturday, 9 am PT - FS-1
Opener: Oklahoma -10.5 O/U 72
Current: Oklahoma -10 O/U 73
Recommendation: Over
To say that the Longhorns new uptempo offense has paid immediate dividends is something of an understatement. The Longhorns rank among the Top 10 teams in the country in pace ratings, averaging just shy of 85 plays per game.
Sterlin Gibert?s attack is averaging 38 points per game in regulation through their first four contests, behind the strong arm of Shane Buechele and the D?Onta Foreman/Chris Warren running back duo, combining to average nearly 6.5 yards per carry. And these aren?t padded numbers against bottom tier FCS schools or Sun Belt squads either ? three of the Longhorns first four opponents were Power 5 conference bowl teams last year (Notre Dame, Cal and Oklahoma State).
Oklahoma is no stranger to playing uptempo football, even though their full season pace rating isn?t quite as high as that of Texas. The Sooners game against uptempo TCU last week produced 98 points, with both teams gaining more than 500 yards of offense. And there?s little reason to expect a dramatically different pace or result this week.
Sooners senior QB Baker Mayfield is coming off his best game of the season, completing 77% of his passes against TCU, throwing for two scores and rushing for two more. RB?s Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine have averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Four different receivers have caught passes of 60 yards or longer. And, like Texas, Oklahoma is battle tested, putting up these impressive offensive stats despite facing Houston, Ohio State and TCU in their first four contests.
Charlie Strong is taking over the Longhorns defense this week. I?m not expecting a dramatic improvement in one week from a defense that hasn?t stopped anybody all year, especially against an offense of this caliber. Oklahoma hasn?t been able to stop anybody either; not a defense loaded with NFL caliber talent. The Buckeyes and Horned Frogs have hung 45 and 46 on them in their last two weeks, and Texas is quite capable of approaching or exceeding that number.
So, to sum up. Both teams play uptempo on offense. Both teams are loaded with playmakers, capable of ?quick strike? touchdowns. Neither defense has shown the ability to stop potent attacks. And given the ultra- competitive nature of the Red River Rivalry, neither team is going to take their foot off the gas pedal, even with a lead. Put it all together and the Over is a clear choice for this bettor!
08:00 PM CFB [301] Georgia Southern -8.5 -110
06:30 PM SOC [208206] Atletico PR -104 over Chapecoense (soccer - BRAZIL - SERIE A)
06:30 PM SOC [208217] TOTAL o2.5 +110 (Gremio vrs Vitoria) (soccer - BRAZIL - SERIE A)
1 unit bet pays 15.67 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 17-169, -33.12 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...and this 5 teamer, due to rain-shortened game became a 4 teamer on Sept 29.
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The opening of the 2016 MLB Playoffs provided a lot of drama in Toronto last night, including the rather curious handling of the end-game pitching by Buck Showalter, and if anything that can help to get the proper frame of mind for baseball bettors going forward ? so many of the outcomes the next few weeks will have major swings based on a single decision, or a single pitch. But if we get the proper value there is the opportunity to win through the cycle, and that value appears to be there in Giants/Mets tonight.
As was the case last season Eric Strasser, author of Betting Baseball for Profit...will be joining in until the final out of the World Series. The collaborations worked rather well last October, and the dynamics of the teams involved this year will bring ample opportunity, with some tough decisions for the odds makers and markets to make. I will be mixing Eric?s ideas into the flow here, using italics to designate what has come directly from him, and we are now in full agreement for tonight at the current trading. That was not quite the case at the get-go, but now that the Mets are available at an underdog rate of return it will be #934 New York (8:05 Eastern) in play, my own ratings making it work at even money or better.
Now time for Mr. Strasser - I made the number Mets -123 here so immediately bet a little Mets -108 when it opened. I made the bet expecting Giants money as Bumgarner will almost always get bet in a standalone primetime game just based on reputation, but also knowing the numbers point the other way. I?ll complete my unit at best available price before game time.
There?s nothing here pointing to Bumgarner other than reputation. Syndergaard has been the better pitcher all year. 10.7 K/9 vs. 10.0 BB/9 very close but 2.1 vs 2.2. 51% GB rate vs 39.6%. Better hard hit ball rate, xFIP 2.67 vs. 3.54. Thor sweeps the metrics, and to make an analogy everyone will understand, that difference in xFIP is comparable to a -7 spread in an NFL game. It?s a big deal.
The Mets bullpen is deeper and more consistent with Salas, Reed and Familia all throwing well down the stretch, while the Giants problems have been well documented. The Mets struggled early in the year against LHP but Reyes (1.200 OPS) and Rene Rivera (.935 OPS) have changed that. Giants will try and run on Syndergaard but their best base stealer (Nunez) is probably not going to play.
I?ve heard people point to the Giants ?experience? as a reason to bet them, but the Mets were in the World Series last year so I can?t see the edge there. Can Bumgarner summon his post-season magic one more time and win the game himself? Sure he can, although his fastball has lost four MPH since he?s thrown a playoff game. That?s not the way to bet it.
Let me add to that notion of Bumgarner?s current stuff vs. those memories of October?s past ? since the All Star break he has worked to a 5-5/3.80 tune over 15 starts and 97 innings. That was all. He was solid and dependable, but he was not special, and the market surge on this game is trying to put him into the category of being special. Meanwhile the team behind Bumgarner has only gone 30-42 since the All Star break, which has this game now being mislabeled, a price sticker that we can take advantage of.
----------
Wednesday comp play is the Over in tonight's Georgia Southern-Arkansas State meeting from Jonesboro.
The Eagles had last week off, so they should be ready to go tonight against the winless Red Wolves. Last time Georgia Southern was on field, they lost at Western Michigan, 49-31 in a game that easily went Over the posted total.
The Eagles have been averaging 33 points per game through their first 4 games, and if they can hit that average, there is a strong chance we see the Over cash in.
The Red Wolves have not won a game this season, so they will be desperate for the win in front of their home crowd, which means they may a few trick plays in their game plan this evening.
One thing for sure, Arkansas State is allowing an average of 36 points per game, so they will need to try and keep Georgia Southern out of the end zone tonight.
My guess is we see enough points for this game to head Over the total.
2* GEORGIA SOUTHERN-ARKANSAS STATE OVER
---
?The O?s went to prom w/ the hottest chick in school then locked her in the car when they got there.?
I would love to take credit for what was the tweet of the night. But this one was courtesy of former big leaguer and now MLB Network analyst Eric Byrnes (@byrnes22).
In case you somehow missed it, Tuesday October 4 is the date Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter completely lost his mind.
I?m sorry, but for those who are trying their best to defend Showalter?s decision to leave closer Zach Britton in the bullpen, you simply haven?t got a leg to stand on.
There is no acceptable rationale for this disastrous maneuver on the part of Showalter. Britton had to pitch in this baseball game. If it?s a regular season game and it?s tied and you?re on the road, then maybe and only maybe is it okay to not bring Britton into the game.
But this wasn?t a regular season game. It was win or go home, and the Orioles are now going home.
I reluctantly was accepting Showalter?s decision to hold off on bringing in Britton prior to the eleventh inning. But going to Brian Duensing and then Ubaldo Jimenez with the season on the line was nothing short of stupid.
Duensing actually did his job by retiring the only man he faced, but bringing in a guy who had pitched zero high leverage innings this season was shaky. Going to Ubaldo next was just plain nuts.
Just so you don?t think I?m Monday morning quarterbacking here, there are numbers that support my claim that not only was Jimenez a bad choice, he was actually the worst possible choice of those remaining in the Baltimore bullpen.
Yeah, I know, Ubaldo pitched well down the stretch. But if you look at those starts and basically his entire season, you?ll see something pretty plain as day right off the bat. The worst inning for Jimenez? Drum roll, please. If you guessed his first inning, you win the grand prize.
Jimenez was absolutely horrible all season in the first inning. The numbers are almost incredibly awful. Ubaldo was the absolute last resort to come in as a reliever in this game. And yet, with a guy who actually has a shot to win the Cy Young Award ready to go, Buck Showalter instead hands the ball to his worst option.
The only good news for Showalter is that this happened in the play-in game rather than in the seventh game of the ALCS or the World Series. Nevertheless, Showalter?s decision to never get his best arm into an elimination game ranks as one of the worst in game decisions I have ever seen or will see.
----
Hurricane Matthew is coming and it doesn't look good for those on the southeast coast. As a result, a number of college football game are expected to be canceled or pushed up. And those contests that are taking place inland but still pegged to get hit by bad weather have nearly all be bet under the total.
Here's a link to the current path and timing of the storm.
Games potential impacted include:
Army at Duke - 3:30 pm ET
Syracuse at Wake Forest - 7 pm ET
Virginia Tech at North Carolina - 3:30 pm ET
Notre Dame at NC State - Noon ET
Houston at Navy - 3 pm ET
East Carolina at South Florida - Noon ET
Florida State at Miami - 8 pm ET
Charlotte at Florida Atlantic - 3:30 pm ET
Georgia at South Carolina - 7:30 pm ET
LSU at Florida - Noon ET
Tulane at Central Florida - CANCELED, Moved to Nov. 5
UMass at Old Dominion - Moved to Friday, 8 pm ET
-------------
Oklahoma vs. Texas - Dallas
Saturday, 9 am PT - FS-1
Opener: Oklahoma -10.5 O/U 72
Current: Oklahoma -10 O/U 73
Recommendation: Over
To say that the Longhorns new uptempo offense has paid immediate dividends is something of an understatement. The Longhorns rank among the Top 10 teams in the country in pace ratings, averaging just shy of 85 plays per game.
Sterlin Gibert?s attack is averaging 38 points per game in regulation through their first four contests, behind the strong arm of Shane Buechele and the D?Onta Foreman/Chris Warren running back duo, combining to average nearly 6.5 yards per carry. And these aren?t padded numbers against bottom tier FCS schools or Sun Belt squads either ? three of the Longhorns first four opponents were Power 5 conference bowl teams last year (Notre Dame, Cal and Oklahoma State).
Oklahoma is no stranger to playing uptempo football, even though their full season pace rating isn?t quite as high as that of Texas. The Sooners game against uptempo TCU last week produced 98 points, with both teams gaining more than 500 yards of offense. And there?s little reason to expect a dramatically different pace or result this week.
Sooners senior QB Baker Mayfield is coming off his best game of the season, completing 77% of his passes against TCU, throwing for two scores and rushing for two more. RB?s Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine have averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Four different receivers have caught passes of 60 yards or longer. And, like Texas, Oklahoma is battle tested, putting up these impressive offensive stats despite facing Houston, Ohio State and TCU in their first four contests.
Charlie Strong is taking over the Longhorns defense this week. I?m not expecting a dramatic improvement in one week from a defense that hasn?t stopped anybody all year, especially against an offense of this caliber. Oklahoma hasn?t been able to stop anybody either; not a defense loaded with NFL caliber talent. The Buckeyes and Horned Frogs have hung 45 and 46 on them in their last two weeks, and Texas is quite capable of approaching or exceeding that number.
So, to sum up. Both teams play uptempo on offense. Both teams are loaded with playmakers, capable of ?quick strike? touchdowns. Neither defense has shown the ability to stop potent attacks. And given the ultra- competitive nature of the Red River Rivalry, neither team is going to take their foot off the gas pedal, even with a lead. Put it all together and the Over is a clear choice for this bettor!
