08:05 PM NBA [514] Houston Rockets -6.5 -110
10:35 PM NBA [517] Oklahoma City Thunder +13.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB [532] Alabama -13-110
10:00 PM CBB [565] Cal Irvine -6.5 -110
10:00 PM CBB [570] Nevada -11.5 -110
08:05 PM NHL [6] Detroit Red Wings +123
09:35 PM NHL [8] Edmonton Oilers -1.5 +160
1 unit bet pays 146 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -11
Georgia Tech is off to a surprising 3-2 start in the ACC after losing a ton to graduation and being picked to finish second to last in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets lost their top four scorers from the team last year that went to the NIT but they have responded with some big wins over VCU and North Carolina. Most recently, Georgia Tech produced victories over NC State and Clemson but it is just 1-3 this season following consecutive wins and has not won consecutive road games thus far. Virginia Tech opened the season 12-1 and got its way into the Top 25 but has since faltered as the schedule has not been on its side. The Hokies defeated Duke by 14 points for their 12th win and that produced a letdown for their next game at NC State. They have also lost two of their last three games after that but those were against Florida St. and Notre Dame which are a combined 32-4 and the loss to the Irish was their first home loss of the season. This is a very efficient team that should bounce back as Virginia Tech is 22nd nationally in effective field goal percentage, 24th in free throw rate, 26th in three-point percentage, 28th in two-point field goals, 31st in raw offensive efficiency, 33rd in two-point field goal percentage defense and 38th in offensive turnover percentage. Going back, the Hokies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning straight up record.
Loyola-Chicago vs. Northern Iowa
Play: Loyola-Chicago +3
The Ramblers took both meetings in this series last season when the Panthers were a force to be reckoned with. They have also covered the L3 matchups. They enter this contest covering their L4 overall (3-1 SU) while Northern Iowa lost 3 DD scorers, including their on-the-floor captain, they are certainly not the same squad, going 1-8 ATS their L9 and 1-7 SU their L8. L-Il hits a remarkable, 51.2% (4th nationally) as UNI is having trouble just putting points on the board (64.6 PPG). The ramblers are 7-3 ATS the L10 meetings in this series and 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. MVC foes.
Illinois St at Bradley
Pick: Bradley
Illinois State is coming off an emotional win over Wichita St where it used every ounce of it's energy. The Redbirds expect to win this one and will be challenged to get properly prepared for the improving Braves. Brian Wardle is quietly improving the Bradley program and they'll be ready to go in this spot. These two campuses are separated by less than 40 miles on I-74 and the two schools have an naturally intense rivalry. It's Bradley's game of the year, while ISU is hungover and dreaming about a Missouri Valley title.
Oklahoma State -3
The Oklahoma State Cowboys will be highly motivated for their first Big 12 victory of the season. They have started 0-5 this season with some tough road losses to Texas (by 3), Baylor (by 4) and Kansas (by 7). They have shown they can play with the league's best, but they just haven't been rewarded with a win yet.
I look for them to get that win tonight against a Kansas State team that hasn't been all that impressive in conference play, either. The Wildcats are 2-3 with their only two wins coming at home over Texas (by 3) as 8.5-point favoites and Oklahoma (by 11) as 11.5-point favorites. The Sooners were playing without their best player in that game.
Home-court advantage means more in this series than perhaps any other in the Big 12. The home team is 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings. Oklahoma State is 11-1 straight up in its last 12 home meetings with Kansas State. The home team is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
The Cowboys are 40-16-3 ATS in their last 59 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Wildcats are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.
Texas Tech -4
I like the value here with the Red Raiders laying a short number at home against the Horned Frogs. Texas Tech has alternated wins and losses in Big 12 play, as they come in at 2-3 in the conference and fresh off a 75-84 loss at Oklahoma. All 3 losses have come on the road, as the Red Raiders are a different team at home, where they are a perfect 11-0 this season.
I believe we are getting a favorable number here due to the fact that TCU is fresh off a 84-77 win at home over Iowa State. I see this is as a tough spot for the Horned Frogs to match the intensity of the Red Raiders off that big win and with an even bigger home game on deck against Baylor this Saturday.
TCU is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games off a home win, while the Red Raiders are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite of 6.5 or less.
VA TECH -11 over Georgia Tech
Very seldom will you see us spotting this many points with a recognized 13-4 program because they are almost always overpriced but that is not the case here. You see, Georgia Tech is coming off two outstanding double digits wins against Clemson and N.C. State respectively with the latter coming on the road. The Yellow Jackets also have a recent win over #9 North Carolina by double digits. Aside from playing that aforementioned trio and beating them, the Jackets played Louisville and Duke in between. Georgia Tech has had a ton of exposure lately because they have played some marquee names and they have looked pretty damn good in doing so. This market is not anxious to be giving this intruder double digits when they have been winning by double digits and that?s the basis for this play. Sell high my friends, which is precisely what we are doing here.
Buy low. Va Tech has dropped three of four and lost its ranking in the process. Not only have the Hokies dropped three of four, they lost 104-78 to the same team (N.C. State) Georgia Tech just beat by 10 points. The result of their three losses in their last four games and getting smoked by Florida State and N.C. State in the process, is that the general consensus is that the Hokies are an overrated bunch. That said, basketball is all about matchups and this is not a good one for the Jackets. The Jackets are an incredibly offensively challenged bunch that is about to play one of the finer defenses in the country. Georgia?s offensive efficiency ranking is 207th, and their possessions per 40 minutes is even worse at 237th. What all this translates to is that the Jackets are going to have to hit a very high percentage of their shots to cover this number and that is extremely unlikely to happen. The Jackets lost to Duke, 110-57 and they lost to Louisville 65-50, which gives you an idea of the type of numbers they put up against top defenses. Va Tech enters this one in a foul mood and this is the perfect victim to take their frustrations out on.
WASHINGTON ST +9? over Utah
The Cougars have about as much appeal as rush hour these days. Wazzou has dropped three straight, which included a 19-point loss to Oregon and a 30-point loss to Stanford. The Cougars have zero notable wins this season to go along with some disturbing losses. A 12-point loss to San Jose State and a 26-point loss to Creighton are among them. Frankly, it is near impossible to make a case for the Coogs and we?re not going to try to. They are a weak Pac-12 team that could easily finish last in the conference. However, this wager is not about backing the Cougars. It is all about fading the Utes, who are not only an average team to begin with but that is also in a difficult spot too.
Let?s begin with the good. The Utes are 12-5 and just beat #25 USC by 22 points. That?s all the good you?re going to get. Utah has played one of the weakest out-of-conference schedules in the country that ranked 334th. Among its victims in its 12 wins were NW Nazarene, Concordia OR, Coppin State, Utah Valley, Prairie View A&M, San Francisco and Montana State. That?s seven of Utah?s 12 wins right there and some of them were lopsided victories, thus skewing the Utes offensive and defensive numbers. In terms of scheduling, Utah is coming off games against #17 Arizona, #25 USC and #4 UCLA in three of its last four contests. The Utes intensity level figures to be much lower here on the road against a team they are expected to beat. The Utes went toe-to-toe with the Bruins on Saturday and eventually lost by just one point. Utah?s good showing against UCLA increased its market value, which means you are paying a higher price to back them here than if they would?ve been blown out. We?re not putting much weight on any team that has a good showing against any other Pac-12 team because the conference is a weak and grossly overvalued one. Utah is more than capable of losing to any Pac-12 team, especially when they travel and the Cougars are no exception. Huge value in this inflated price.
St. Joseph?s +6? over UMASS
Last Wednesday most of the country faded the Minutemen when Dayton came calling and when it was over, they were all ripping up their tickets. One week later and the Minutemen go from a 6?-pooch to a -6?-point favorite and therein lies the overreaction. While Dayton is obviously a better team than the Hawks, there is also a big difference from being expected to lose to expecting to win. UMass finds itself in those contrasting roles here and we wouldn?t trust them for a second. The Minutemen have been favored a mere five times this season in 18 games and they have covered twice. They played a bunch of marshmallows in their out-of-conference slate and had some close call against some of them, which included a six-point home victory over North Carolina A&T and a seven-point victory, also at home, against Wagner.
St. Joe?s is coming off a four-point home loss to Richmond, which doesn?t do anything to booster its credentials but it?s actually better than it seems. You see, the Hawks lost by just four points after shooting a mere 34% from the floor and missing nine free throws too. Bad shooting days happen but this market usually sees results and nothing else. That the Hawks didn?t lose by 20 after such a poor shooting performance reveals how good their defense played and also how determined they were. The Hawks have also had to transition after they lost junior point guard Shavar Newkirk for the year on December 30. St. Joe?s has four games under their belt since that devastating blow but don?t count them out. Phil Martelli is in his 22nd year at St. Joe?s and knows exactly how to get the best out of every player. The Hawks went 28-8 last year and while they lost some serious talent, Martelli has restocked the lineup with an athletic four-man group that is getting better with each passing game. The Hawks are very likely going to shoot much better here than they did against the Spiders and should that come to pass and they play with the same intensity level, they?ll have a great chance to not only cover but to win outright. We?re calling the upset but will take the points.
Florida vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -2
Florida is getting all kinds of love due to winning a 7-game winning streak, which includes a 5-0 start to SEC play. The thing is the Gators have had a pretty easy slate so far and I see this game at South Carolina as their biggest challenge yet. The Gamecocks simply aren't getting enough respect here. They are 14-3 overall and 10-1 at home and all 3 losses have come with their best player, Sindarius Thornwell sidelined. South Carolina is 8-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons off 3 straight wins by 10 or more, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Colorado State vs. Fresno State
Play: Fresno State -4?
Fresno hosts Colorado State on Wednesday night. The Bulldogs have won three of their last five all at home over Boise State, Wyoming and Nevada. Fresno has a lot of weapons led by Karachi Edo and Paul Watson. They are facing a Rams team with just seven scholarship players and only three guards or so on the roster. They have won three of their last five after a three game losing streak. The problem has been their defense which needs to be better considering the offense has been inconsistent. Fresno has covered 10 of their 13 lined games including four of five at home. I like the home team in this one.
Raptors vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +6
The Philadelphia 76ers have finally turned the corner and are playing their best basketball of the year. They are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. One of the losses was a 4-point setback at Boston as 11-pint dogs. The 76ers went into Milwaukee last time out and won 113-104 as 8.5-point dogs. Now they face a Toronto Raptors team in a very bad spot. The Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 119-109 win in Brooklyn last night. And leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is likely to rest tonight for the Raptors because of it. Philadelphia is 14-5 ATS revenging a home loss this season.
Toronto vs. Philadelphia
Play: Over 210
Don't look now but the Philadelphia 76ers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Sixers have won six of their last eight overall, and they've scored an average of 104 points per game during that span. They will need all the points they can get if they want to upset the Raptors at home tonight, Toronto ranks third in the NBA in scoring averaging over 111 points per game. They've scored at least 110 points in six straight games, and they've scored more than 120 points in each of their last three games against the Sixers. The over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams, and I expect another high scoring affair here in Philly tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +3
The Memphis Grizzlies are on the road in Washington to take on the Wizards Wednesday night. The Grizzlies are coming off a home loss to the Bulls on Sunday 108 to 104 which was their second loss in their last three outings. The Grizzlies have matched up well against this Wizards team in certain situations they are a perfect 3-0 ATS against the Wizards in the current price range. The reason for that success against the Wizards in the current price range is nothing new the Wizards are 39-54-2 ATS as a favorite in the current price range and 25-37-2 ATS when installed as a home favorite in this price range. We want to play ON non-conference road teams coming off a SU/ATS win as a home favorite in their last game because these teams are 135-94-6 ATS. We look for the Grizzlies bounce back here against the Wizards on Wednesday night.
Memphis vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The set-up: The 25-18 Memphis Grizzlies have their work cut out for them when they visit Washington tonight, as the 21-19 Wizards have won their last 12 games at Verizon Center.
Memphis: The Grizzlies suffered a 108-104 home loss to the Chicago Bulls on Sunday night and have dropped two of three and six of their last 11 games, with all but one of those setbacks coming on the road. Veteran power forward Zach Randolph held his own in Chicago and recorded 15 points and 16 rebounds off the bench to mark his fourth double-double in the last five games. Randolph (13.8 & 5.2 on the season) has lobbied for more playing time alongside center Marc Gasol (19.4-6.1-4.2) and is thriving in extended minutes while posting 17 points and 11.8 rebounds in an average of 29 minutes in the last five contests. That inside duo joins PG Conley (19.0-3.7-5.2) as the team's lone double digit scorers.
Washington: Meanwhile, all five Washington starters score in double digits. The backcourt duo of Wall (22.9-4.5-10.1) and Beal (22.5) lead the way, while up front, forwards Porter (14.0 & 6.4) and Morris (13.4 & 6.3) surround center Gortat (11.4 & 11.6). The Wizards stumbled badly out of the gate at 2-8 but the team is 15-7 since Dec. 5 (12 straight home wins began on Dec. 8 ).
The pick: The Wizards are 11-1 ATS during their 12-game home winning streak, so why buck them here?
Indiana vs. Sacramento
Pick: Sacramento
Sacramento had hoped that a two-week homestand of seven games would help solidify the team as a playoff contender in the Western Conference with six games completed, the Kings have managed just ONE victory! That lone win came 100-94 over the Pistons, who squandered an 18-point third quarter lead. It's safe to say, things haven't gone as planned this homestand for the Kings. Tonight, it's a game against the 21-19 Indiana Pacers, then the Kings head out on the road for an EIGHT-game road trip over 12 days!
The Pacers begin a three-game Western Conference trip with this contest and have struggled to close games this season. Away from Indiana, the Pacers are just plain have trouble winning, sporting a 5-14 SU record, also going 5-14 ATS (more on that, later). The Pacers come in having won six of their past seven and can move three games above .500 for the first time with a victory, but FIVE of those seven games were played at Indiana. SF Paul George (22.0-6.1-3.3), center Turner (15.6 -7.7) and PG Jeff Teague (15.6-4.1-8.0) are the pacesetters for an Indiana offense that has shot at least 50 percent in five of its past six games.
The poor homestand has been disappointing to both players and coaches, and the repeated miscues and breakdowns have been alarming. "We're not a good team right now -- plain and simple," small forward Matt Barnes told reporters. "We have what it takes but we're undisciplined. We're not consistent and we lose our focus too much." However, the Kings are still just one game out of the West's final playoff spot. Also, Indiana's woes on the road are real, as the team has failed to cover in ANY of its 14 SU losses on the road this season! Kings head out on the road off a win.
Boston vs. Detroit
Pick: Boston -138
Boston has won eight of the last nine meetings against Detroit, including 1-0 on Oct. 29. The Bruins come off a loss to the New York Islanders on Monday as Tuukka Rask had an off night in goal allowing three goals and Zane McIntyre finished up and allowed another goal in the 4-0 loss. Rask is still 22-10-3 this season with a 2.03 goals-against average and .923 save percentage and should bounce back tonight. The Red Wings won its second straight 1-0 against Montreal on Monday with Thomas Vanek scoring the only goal and Jared Coreau making 18 saves. Detroit is just 1-6 after allowing two or fewer goals its previous game and Boston is 6-1 after allowing three goals or more in a home loss. The Red Wings have lost four of their last five following a win.
Memphis at Washington -2
Play: Washington -2
The markets haven?t come close to catching up with the Wizards in recent weeks, particularly on their home floor. The Wizards are 15-7 SU since their 2-8 start. At home, the numbers are even more impressive: 12-0 SU, 11-1 ATS ; a streak that dates back to early December. Shooting guard Bradley Beal: ?We have that extra urge here, that will to want to win. We want to be a great team here and home, we want to have home court when playoff time comes around."
Washington?s run of success is no fluke. Point guard John Wall is playing at a superstar level, ranked #5 in the NBA (behind Westbrook, Curry, Lowry and Paul) in REAL plus/minus for point guards. Small forward Otto Porter has come into his own as well, ranked #6 at his position in REAL plus/minus, behind the likes of LeBron, Kawhi, Greek Freak, Durant and Jimmy Butler. Marcin Gortat is cleaning up in the low post, Beal is draining three?s, and despite a relatively weak bench, Scott Brooks has a surging, confident team right now.
The Wizards are rested and ready, playing only their third game in the last seven days, all at home. The Grizzlies are on the other end of the ?rested and ready? spectrum. This will be their 14th consecutive court change, a brutal scheduling stretch that has left them without back-2-back home games since the week before Christmas. They?ve played in all four US time zones in their last six games; looking gassed and out of sync in a home loss to Chicago in their last contest.
Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale, talking about how he?s trying to patch things through the Grizzlies rough scheduling stretch and their near constant battle with key injuries: ?We?re trying to feel our way through this thing and see what works and what doesn?t work as we get these guys back healthy and getting their legs under them. We?ve just got to figure it out...and be more consistent.? That?s no bet-on quote!
Bucks at Rockets
Play: Under 225
The Houston Rockets come home following a 109-103 loss in Miami last night to play an up and coming Milwaukee Bucks squad. We will be taking the UNDER as we have a total of 225 at the time of this writing which we believe is a little high. We had this total at 221 so there is plenty of value for us here. Milwaukee is ranked 10th in opponents points per game and we see them trying to play more defense than getting into a run and gun game with the Rockets. The Rockets are also fighting the injury bug. Ryan Anderson is recovering from the flu and Eric Gordon was hurt last night and even if they both play they will not be close to 100%. In the Bucks last 35 games only 2 have gone OVER today's posted total. We know Houston are the second highest scoring team in the NBA but back to back games with a club not a 100% healthy has us on the UNDER here.
Montreal -110
It's never a snap to fade the powerful Penguins, but I think I have to do that here. Pittsburgh is off one of the craziest wins I've seen in ages. The Pens rallied from a 3-0 deficit, then blew 5-3 and 7-5 leads before getting the overtime win against the Capitals on Monday night. That game was absolutely insane, and wheeling back on the road 48 hours later doesn't figure to be easy. On the flip side, Montreal should be pretty geared up for this game. They came out on the short end of an overtime thriller the last time they faced Pittsburgh. In that game, the Habs were up one goal before the Penguins tied it with less than one minute to play in regulation. In the overtime, Montreal got tagged for having too many men on the ice when they botched a change while trying to prevent a 2-0n-1 break and Pittsburgh skated away with the win on a power play goal. There's no such thing as a perfect storm in handicapping, but I think this one is pretty good. I'll play the Canadiens at close to even money on Wednesday night.
Arizona +160 over WINNIPEG
OT included. Michael Hutchison was a great goaltender when he first came up to the Jets and now his head is spinning. Connor Hellebucyk was also a great goaltender when he first came up and now his head is spinning too. Andrej Pavelec?s head isn?t spinning because the Jets are paying him four million a year to play minor league hockey.
Winnipeg has dropped four in a row and five of six. They have allowed 19 goals against in their last four losses. Coach Paul Maurice is blaming weak goaltending on his teams? woes. Don?t blame Michael Hutchison and don?t blame Connor Hellebucyk. Blame the Jets? idiot coach for not sticking with one guy for an extended period of time instead of alternating them whenever one had a bad game. Getting constantly yanked and/or benched ruins one?s confidence. Without confidence, you cannot succeed in pro sports. Now Maurice has two mentally damaged goaltenders on his hands. Instead of picking one or the other, Maurice summoned for Andrej Pavelec, a goaltender that he did the same thing to. Pavelec will now play in his first NHL game since last April. Pavelec?s numbers were horrible last year and he?ll now come in and try and save Winnipeg?s season under heavy media and fan scrutiny. The Jets return home from a three-game trip through Arizona, Los Angeles and San Jose to face the Coyotes in front of their ?tired of waiting? fans. Paul Maurice has ruined this team and the players aren?t responding to him anyway. The Jets are wasting a ton of talent and while it would be damn foolish to think they can?t win here, we?ll gladly take our chances because Winnipeg is fragile and on the verge of a coaching change.
Arizona is fragile too but in a different way. The Coyotes don?t have the talent that the Jets have so they struggle to win games and that plays on their minds. However, they have a great coach, they?re on the right track and they?re playing better as of late without the results. Arizona has held five of its last seven opponents to 27, 23, 28, 24 and 24 shots on net. The Coyotes have picked up points in three of its last five games. Arizona?s talented defense and its work ethic make them very worthy of a bet in certain situations and this is one of them. The bet here is a fade against Winnipeg, who cannot be favored in this range. Damn straight the ?Yotes can win here.
EDMONTON -1? +180 over Florida
The Panthers played in Calgary last night and lost 5-2 but that was a flattering score to the Panthers, as they probably should have lost 7-0. Florida?s first two goals came on their first nine shots and both were by Vincent Trocheck in virtually the exact same spot. Calgary had two goals overturned in the third period that were both coaches? challenges for offside. Both offsides were by a fraction of an inch (if that), which took the refs quite some time to determine in both instances.
Florida had 12 shots about midway through the third period last night before the Flames took a series of penalties that resulted in four minutes of power play time. The Panthers also pulled their goalie with 3 minutes remaining and a man advantage so it was a 6-on-4 situation. The 11 shots on net by the Panthers in the third period looks prettier on paper than it did on the ice. With that loss last night, Florida is now 5-18 against top-16 teams. The Panthers were running around (badly) in their own end last night and that?s tiring. Playing the second game of back-to-backs against the speedy Oilers is not a recipe for success. The Panthers are laboring miserably.
Edmonton has allowed 22, 25, 19, 18 and 20 shots on net in five of its last six games while dominating the time of possession, scoring chances and shots on net. Edmonton has won three in a row and five of seven but the puck is not going in for them like it should be. Edmonton has either run into some hot goaltending of its luck around the net has been poor. Incredibly, the Oil has scored three goals or less in 16 of their last 17 games but they are not going to be contained much longer. Edmonton creates a ton of high quality scoring chances. In that regard, they rank sixth in the league and somebody is going to pay. The Oilers rank top-6 in several other analytical categories too so their lack of goals scored recently is in line for a major correction. This visitor could provide that correction.
Coyotes vs. Jets
Play: Over 5?
The Coyotes struggle to score goals. There is no doubt about that. But Arizona may have found the perfect host to get their struggling offense back on track. Winnipeg comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak where they have allowed a total of 19 goals in the 4 games! Not surprisingly, none of these 4 games resulted in an under. The Jets have now allowed 4 goals or more in 7 of their last 10 games! The Coyotes have also had trouble keeping the puck out of their own net. Arizona has allowed at least 3 goals in 12 of its last 13 games! There is hope for the Coyotes do get some goal production going again here as they have averaged 3 goals per game in their last 4 games against Winnipeg. 3 of those 4 games have gone over the total and I expect another one here. The Jets are 16-10 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Look for the recent Winnipeg struggles in their own end to bring out the best in the Coyotes offense while the Jets continue to score well (47 goals in their last 15 games).
CareerBuilder Challenge
From Hawaii, we say hello to the West Coast and Coachella Valley for the first celebrity Pro-Am of the calendar year. The CareerBuilder Challenge will once again be sponsored by the Clinton Foundation. This course is one of those tricky rotating course events with three different tracks hosting the first trio of rounds and it is an excellent test of mettle for a field slightly low on quality with the elite seeking their fortune elsewhere. Still, that?s good news for us because the chances of a longshot coming in increases.
The trio of courses in the rotation are the TPC Stadium Course, which will also host the final round and measures in at 7,113 yards for its Par 72; the Nicklaus Tournament Course (Par 72, 7,159 yards) and La Quinta CC, which measures 7,060 yards and has a stroke index of Par 72 also. The Stadium Course garners the most attention thanks to its tariff of difficulty, which back in the late 1980?s was considered one of the toughest tests on Tour. The Jack Nicklaus designed Tournament course is said to be ?forgiving off the tee but demanding around the greens,? with well-placed hazards in the final third causing the occasional headache. The extra room off the tee certainly contributed to the low scoring in 2016, however. La Quinta was the easiest of the three courses, certainly through round one anyway, with a stroke average of 69.596; bettering the 69.424 set by the Nicklaus and the 71.825 mark of the Stadium Course.
We?re going to place an emphasis on decent putting ? as last year?s winner (Dufner) gained 1.48 strokes on the field with his flat stick, and Par 4 Scoring (Dufner played the regulation holes in -12). All in all, seven of the top-10 in 2016 gained at least 1.00 shots on the field with their putter, and 6/10 via Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, so a decent all-round contribution will be required.
The following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.
The head to head match-ups will be bet at .
Jamie Lovemark 30-1
We almost always look for odds higher than 30-1 but Lovermark is on the verge of a win and we don?t want to miss it if he pops this week. His effort at the Sony Open last week was tremendous, a T4 finish backed by an outstanding effort with the putter by gaining 1.861 shots on the field. A hot flat stick is never a bad thing, and perhaps explains why Lovemark has served up a pair of top-10 finishes in his last two starts. A proud Californian, he will be determined to get stuck into his hometown tournament here, and in finishing T6 in the first outing for the new rotation of courses in 2016, he gave us a fantastic insight into what to expect. Yet to break his duck on the PGA TOUR despite eight top-10 finishes, a tournament he enjoys in limited company could well give Lovemark the opportunity he desires (risking 0.4 units to win 12 units).
Head-to-head
J. Lovemark +117 over J. Rahm (risking 1 unit).
Cameron Smith 80-1
We?ve discussed having in-form players who are decent putters on board this week and Cameron Smith fits the bill excellently. A string of form reading 11-10-42-27 is pleasing on the eye and in ranking inside the world?s top 40 for Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and Strokes Gained Putting, Smith?s game appears ideally suited for this Californian test. The Aussie boasts some lovely stats for Proximity to the Hole and Birdie-Making too, so let?s sign him up without hesitation at these odds. He has other key stats too that include - Total Birdies - ranked 11th, Par 4 Scoring Average ? ranked 20th and Strokes Gained Putting ranked ? 40th (risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).
Head-to-head
C. Smith -108 over S. Kjeldsen (risking 1.08 units to win 1).
Michael Thompson 150-1
A hot putter that is heating up quite nicely at the moment belongs to Michael Thompson, who holds some excellent value this week. He can be inconsistent, which is why he?s priced so high but the risk is worth the reward. A T13 at the RSM Classic and T20 at the Sony Open in his last two starts suggest things are going in the right direction. That performance in Hawaii ? where he carded scores of 65 and a closing 63 ? was outstanding, and he claimed an incredible 2.00 shots on the field with his putter; which should help on these probable dull and wet greens. His career strike rate is roughly 20% for finishing in the top-25 (34 in 155), and on tracks like this that should suit him, let?s hope he can be in the mix on Sunday and give us a chance to cash something. Some of Thompson?s key stats are Strokes Gained Putting ? ranked 14th, approaches from > 200 yds ? ranked 25th and Scoring Average, ranked ? 50th (risking 0.2 units to win 30 units).
Note: There are no heads up matches available for Thompson
Martin Laird 50-1
Scotsman Laird is the archetypal sleeper, as he?s consistently finishing higher than his odds would suggest, including T8 at the Safeway Open, T27 at Shriners, and T13 at Mayakoba in his last trio of outings. A T15 here in 2015 offers some further encouragement, and Laird?s natural eye ? he pounds fairways and greens and can, on his day, putt the lights out ? should suit the new set-up too. If the wind picks up, Laird?s great efficiency off the tee could well become a secret weapon to savor. Laird is not without some key stats either, as his Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green is ranked 7th, his Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is ranked 15th and his Putting Average is ranked 34th. Dude is absolutely worth a bet here (risking 0.2 units to win 10).
Head-to-head
M. Laird -119 over C. Hoffman (risking 1.19 units to win 1).
Jon Huh 66-1
Although Huh has not taken off like it looked like he would after starting his career with consecutive seasons finishing in the top-45 of the FedExCup standings, he has remained a consistent force on the PGA TOUR and made it to the weekend 53 times over 87 starts (61%) between 2014 and 2016. His steady play has allowed him to kick off the New Year in fantastic fashion, going 6-for-6 in cuts made with a top-10 at the Shriners Open. He?s been under par by double-digits at each of his last four starts and is currently riding a streak of eight consecutive rounds in the 60s due to his ability to scramble (72.22%, 12th on Tour) and gain strokes with his approach to the green (0.761, 26th on Tour). He should stay out of trouble this week and improve on his start last year when he came away from this event in 24th. Great price on a great golfer (risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head-to-head
J. Huh -117 over H. Varner III (risking 1.17 units to win 1).
10:35 PM NBA [517] Oklahoma City Thunder +13.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB [532] Alabama -13-110
10:00 PM CBB [565] Cal Irvine -6.5 -110
10:00 PM CBB [570] Nevada -11.5 -110
08:05 PM NHL [6] Detroit Red Wings +123
09:35 PM NHL [8] Edmonton Oilers -1.5 +160
1 unit bet pays 146 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -11
Georgia Tech is off to a surprising 3-2 start in the ACC after losing a ton to graduation and being picked to finish second to last in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets lost their top four scorers from the team last year that went to the NIT but they have responded with some big wins over VCU and North Carolina. Most recently, Georgia Tech produced victories over NC State and Clemson but it is just 1-3 this season following consecutive wins and has not won consecutive road games thus far. Virginia Tech opened the season 12-1 and got its way into the Top 25 but has since faltered as the schedule has not been on its side. The Hokies defeated Duke by 14 points for their 12th win and that produced a letdown for their next game at NC State. They have also lost two of their last three games after that but those were against Florida St. and Notre Dame which are a combined 32-4 and the loss to the Irish was their first home loss of the season. This is a very efficient team that should bounce back as Virginia Tech is 22nd nationally in effective field goal percentage, 24th in free throw rate, 26th in three-point percentage, 28th in two-point field goals, 31st in raw offensive efficiency, 33rd in two-point field goal percentage defense and 38th in offensive turnover percentage. Going back, the Hokies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning straight up record.
Loyola-Chicago vs. Northern Iowa
Play: Loyola-Chicago +3
The Ramblers took both meetings in this series last season when the Panthers were a force to be reckoned with. They have also covered the L3 matchups. They enter this contest covering their L4 overall (3-1 SU) while Northern Iowa lost 3 DD scorers, including their on-the-floor captain, they are certainly not the same squad, going 1-8 ATS their L9 and 1-7 SU their L8. L-Il hits a remarkable, 51.2% (4th nationally) as UNI is having trouble just putting points on the board (64.6 PPG). The ramblers are 7-3 ATS the L10 meetings in this series and 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. MVC foes.
Illinois St at Bradley
Pick: Bradley
Illinois State is coming off an emotional win over Wichita St where it used every ounce of it's energy. The Redbirds expect to win this one and will be challenged to get properly prepared for the improving Braves. Brian Wardle is quietly improving the Bradley program and they'll be ready to go in this spot. These two campuses are separated by less than 40 miles on I-74 and the two schools have an naturally intense rivalry. It's Bradley's game of the year, while ISU is hungover and dreaming about a Missouri Valley title.
Oklahoma State -3
The Oklahoma State Cowboys will be highly motivated for their first Big 12 victory of the season. They have started 0-5 this season with some tough road losses to Texas (by 3), Baylor (by 4) and Kansas (by 7). They have shown they can play with the league's best, but they just haven't been rewarded with a win yet.
I look for them to get that win tonight against a Kansas State team that hasn't been all that impressive in conference play, either. The Wildcats are 2-3 with their only two wins coming at home over Texas (by 3) as 8.5-point favoites and Oklahoma (by 11) as 11.5-point favorites. The Sooners were playing without their best player in that game.
Home-court advantage means more in this series than perhaps any other in the Big 12. The home team is 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings. Oklahoma State is 11-1 straight up in its last 12 home meetings with Kansas State. The home team is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
The Cowboys are 40-16-3 ATS in their last 59 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Wildcats are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.
Texas Tech -4
I like the value here with the Red Raiders laying a short number at home against the Horned Frogs. Texas Tech has alternated wins and losses in Big 12 play, as they come in at 2-3 in the conference and fresh off a 75-84 loss at Oklahoma. All 3 losses have come on the road, as the Red Raiders are a different team at home, where they are a perfect 11-0 this season.
I believe we are getting a favorable number here due to the fact that TCU is fresh off a 84-77 win at home over Iowa State. I see this is as a tough spot for the Horned Frogs to match the intensity of the Red Raiders off that big win and with an even bigger home game on deck against Baylor this Saturday.
TCU is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games off a home win, while the Red Raiders are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite of 6.5 or less.
VA TECH -11 over Georgia Tech
Very seldom will you see us spotting this many points with a recognized 13-4 program because they are almost always overpriced but that is not the case here. You see, Georgia Tech is coming off two outstanding double digits wins against Clemson and N.C. State respectively with the latter coming on the road. The Yellow Jackets also have a recent win over #9 North Carolina by double digits. Aside from playing that aforementioned trio and beating them, the Jackets played Louisville and Duke in between. Georgia Tech has had a ton of exposure lately because they have played some marquee names and they have looked pretty damn good in doing so. This market is not anxious to be giving this intruder double digits when they have been winning by double digits and that?s the basis for this play. Sell high my friends, which is precisely what we are doing here.
Buy low. Va Tech has dropped three of four and lost its ranking in the process. Not only have the Hokies dropped three of four, they lost 104-78 to the same team (N.C. State) Georgia Tech just beat by 10 points. The result of their three losses in their last four games and getting smoked by Florida State and N.C. State in the process, is that the general consensus is that the Hokies are an overrated bunch. That said, basketball is all about matchups and this is not a good one for the Jackets. The Jackets are an incredibly offensively challenged bunch that is about to play one of the finer defenses in the country. Georgia?s offensive efficiency ranking is 207th, and their possessions per 40 minutes is even worse at 237th. What all this translates to is that the Jackets are going to have to hit a very high percentage of their shots to cover this number and that is extremely unlikely to happen. The Jackets lost to Duke, 110-57 and they lost to Louisville 65-50, which gives you an idea of the type of numbers they put up against top defenses. Va Tech enters this one in a foul mood and this is the perfect victim to take their frustrations out on.
WASHINGTON ST +9? over Utah
The Cougars have about as much appeal as rush hour these days. Wazzou has dropped three straight, which included a 19-point loss to Oregon and a 30-point loss to Stanford. The Cougars have zero notable wins this season to go along with some disturbing losses. A 12-point loss to San Jose State and a 26-point loss to Creighton are among them. Frankly, it is near impossible to make a case for the Coogs and we?re not going to try to. They are a weak Pac-12 team that could easily finish last in the conference. However, this wager is not about backing the Cougars. It is all about fading the Utes, who are not only an average team to begin with but that is also in a difficult spot too.
Let?s begin with the good. The Utes are 12-5 and just beat #25 USC by 22 points. That?s all the good you?re going to get. Utah has played one of the weakest out-of-conference schedules in the country that ranked 334th. Among its victims in its 12 wins were NW Nazarene, Concordia OR, Coppin State, Utah Valley, Prairie View A&M, San Francisco and Montana State. That?s seven of Utah?s 12 wins right there and some of them were lopsided victories, thus skewing the Utes offensive and defensive numbers. In terms of scheduling, Utah is coming off games against #17 Arizona, #25 USC and #4 UCLA in three of its last four contests. The Utes intensity level figures to be much lower here on the road against a team they are expected to beat. The Utes went toe-to-toe with the Bruins on Saturday and eventually lost by just one point. Utah?s good showing against UCLA increased its market value, which means you are paying a higher price to back them here than if they would?ve been blown out. We?re not putting much weight on any team that has a good showing against any other Pac-12 team because the conference is a weak and grossly overvalued one. Utah is more than capable of losing to any Pac-12 team, especially when they travel and the Cougars are no exception. Huge value in this inflated price.
St. Joseph?s +6? over UMASS
Last Wednesday most of the country faded the Minutemen when Dayton came calling and when it was over, they were all ripping up their tickets. One week later and the Minutemen go from a 6?-pooch to a -6?-point favorite and therein lies the overreaction. While Dayton is obviously a better team than the Hawks, there is also a big difference from being expected to lose to expecting to win. UMass finds itself in those contrasting roles here and we wouldn?t trust them for a second. The Minutemen have been favored a mere five times this season in 18 games and they have covered twice. They played a bunch of marshmallows in their out-of-conference slate and had some close call against some of them, which included a six-point home victory over North Carolina A&T and a seven-point victory, also at home, against Wagner.
St. Joe?s is coming off a four-point home loss to Richmond, which doesn?t do anything to booster its credentials but it?s actually better than it seems. You see, the Hawks lost by just four points after shooting a mere 34% from the floor and missing nine free throws too. Bad shooting days happen but this market usually sees results and nothing else. That the Hawks didn?t lose by 20 after such a poor shooting performance reveals how good their defense played and also how determined they were. The Hawks have also had to transition after they lost junior point guard Shavar Newkirk for the year on December 30. St. Joe?s has four games under their belt since that devastating blow but don?t count them out. Phil Martelli is in his 22nd year at St. Joe?s and knows exactly how to get the best out of every player. The Hawks went 28-8 last year and while they lost some serious talent, Martelli has restocked the lineup with an athletic four-man group that is getting better with each passing game. The Hawks are very likely going to shoot much better here than they did against the Spiders and should that come to pass and they play with the same intensity level, they?ll have a great chance to not only cover but to win outright. We?re calling the upset but will take the points.
Florida vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -2
Florida is getting all kinds of love due to winning a 7-game winning streak, which includes a 5-0 start to SEC play. The thing is the Gators have had a pretty easy slate so far and I see this game at South Carolina as their biggest challenge yet. The Gamecocks simply aren't getting enough respect here. They are 14-3 overall and 10-1 at home and all 3 losses have come with their best player, Sindarius Thornwell sidelined. South Carolina is 8-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons off 3 straight wins by 10 or more, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Colorado State vs. Fresno State
Play: Fresno State -4?
Fresno hosts Colorado State on Wednesday night. The Bulldogs have won three of their last five all at home over Boise State, Wyoming and Nevada. Fresno has a lot of weapons led by Karachi Edo and Paul Watson. They are facing a Rams team with just seven scholarship players and only three guards or so on the roster. They have won three of their last five after a three game losing streak. The problem has been their defense which needs to be better considering the offense has been inconsistent. Fresno has covered 10 of their 13 lined games including four of five at home. I like the home team in this one.
Raptors vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +6
The Philadelphia 76ers have finally turned the corner and are playing their best basketball of the year. They are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. One of the losses was a 4-point setback at Boston as 11-pint dogs. The 76ers went into Milwaukee last time out and won 113-104 as 8.5-point dogs. Now they face a Toronto Raptors team in a very bad spot. The Raptors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 119-109 win in Brooklyn last night. And leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is likely to rest tonight for the Raptors because of it. Philadelphia is 14-5 ATS revenging a home loss this season.
Toronto vs. Philadelphia
Play: Over 210
Don't look now but the Philadelphia 76ers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Sixers have won six of their last eight overall, and they've scored an average of 104 points per game during that span. They will need all the points they can get if they want to upset the Raptors at home tonight, Toronto ranks third in the NBA in scoring averaging over 111 points per game. They've scored at least 110 points in six straight games, and they've scored more than 120 points in each of their last three games against the Sixers. The over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams, and I expect another high scoring affair here in Philly tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +3
The Memphis Grizzlies are on the road in Washington to take on the Wizards Wednesday night. The Grizzlies are coming off a home loss to the Bulls on Sunday 108 to 104 which was their second loss in their last three outings. The Grizzlies have matched up well against this Wizards team in certain situations they are a perfect 3-0 ATS against the Wizards in the current price range. The reason for that success against the Wizards in the current price range is nothing new the Wizards are 39-54-2 ATS as a favorite in the current price range and 25-37-2 ATS when installed as a home favorite in this price range. We want to play ON non-conference road teams coming off a SU/ATS win as a home favorite in their last game because these teams are 135-94-6 ATS. We look for the Grizzlies bounce back here against the Wizards on Wednesday night.
Memphis vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The set-up: The 25-18 Memphis Grizzlies have their work cut out for them when they visit Washington tonight, as the 21-19 Wizards have won their last 12 games at Verizon Center.
Memphis: The Grizzlies suffered a 108-104 home loss to the Chicago Bulls on Sunday night and have dropped two of three and six of their last 11 games, with all but one of those setbacks coming on the road. Veteran power forward Zach Randolph held his own in Chicago and recorded 15 points and 16 rebounds off the bench to mark his fourth double-double in the last five games. Randolph (13.8 & 5.2 on the season) has lobbied for more playing time alongside center Marc Gasol (19.4-6.1-4.2) and is thriving in extended minutes while posting 17 points and 11.8 rebounds in an average of 29 minutes in the last five contests. That inside duo joins PG Conley (19.0-3.7-5.2) as the team's lone double digit scorers.
Washington: Meanwhile, all five Washington starters score in double digits. The backcourt duo of Wall (22.9-4.5-10.1) and Beal (22.5) lead the way, while up front, forwards Porter (14.0 & 6.4) and Morris (13.4 & 6.3) surround center Gortat (11.4 & 11.6). The Wizards stumbled badly out of the gate at 2-8 but the team is 15-7 since Dec. 5 (12 straight home wins began on Dec. 8 ).
The pick: The Wizards are 11-1 ATS during their 12-game home winning streak, so why buck them here?
Indiana vs. Sacramento
Pick: Sacramento
Sacramento had hoped that a two-week homestand of seven games would help solidify the team as a playoff contender in the Western Conference with six games completed, the Kings have managed just ONE victory! That lone win came 100-94 over the Pistons, who squandered an 18-point third quarter lead. It's safe to say, things haven't gone as planned this homestand for the Kings. Tonight, it's a game against the 21-19 Indiana Pacers, then the Kings head out on the road for an EIGHT-game road trip over 12 days!
The Pacers begin a three-game Western Conference trip with this contest and have struggled to close games this season. Away from Indiana, the Pacers are just plain have trouble winning, sporting a 5-14 SU record, also going 5-14 ATS (more on that, later). The Pacers come in having won six of their past seven and can move three games above .500 for the first time with a victory, but FIVE of those seven games were played at Indiana. SF Paul George (22.0-6.1-3.3), center Turner (15.6 -7.7) and PG Jeff Teague (15.6-4.1-8.0) are the pacesetters for an Indiana offense that has shot at least 50 percent in five of its past six games.
The poor homestand has been disappointing to both players and coaches, and the repeated miscues and breakdowns have been alarming. "We're not a good team right now -- plain and simple," small forward Matt Barnes told reporters. "We have what it takes but we're undisciplined. We're not consistent and we lose our focus too much." However, the Kings are still just one game out of the West's final playoff spot. Also, Indiana's woes on the road are real, as the team has failed to cover in ANY of its 14 SU losses on the road this season! Kings head out on the road off a win.
Boston vs. Detroit
Pick: Boston -138
Boston has won eight of the last nine meetings against Detroit, including 1-0 on Oct. 29. The Bruins come off a loss to the New York Islanders on Monday as Tuukka Rask had an off night in goal allowing three goals and Zane McIntyre finished up and allowed another goal in the 4-0 loss. Rask is still 22-10-3 this season with a 2.03 goals-against average and .923 save percentage and should bounce back tonight. The Red Wings won its second straight 1-0 against Montreal on Monday with Thomas Vanek scoring the only goal and Jared Coreau making 18 saves. Detroit is just 1-6 after allowing two or fewer goals its previous game and Boston is 6-1 after allowing three goals or more in a home loss. The Red Wings have lost four of their last five following a win.
Memphis at Washington -2
Play: Washington -2
The markets haven?t come close to catching up with the Wizards in recent weeks, particularly on their home floor. The Wizards are 15-7 SU since their 2-8 start. At home, the numbers are even more impressive: 12-0 SU, 11-1 ATS ; a streak that dates back to early December. Shooting guard Bradley Beal: ?We have that extra urge here, that will to want to win. We want to be a great team here and home, we want to have home court when playoff time comes around."
Washington?s run of success is no fluke. Point guard John Wall is playing at a superstar level, ranked #5 in the NBA (behind Westbrook, Curry, Lowry and Paul) in REAL plus/minus for point guards. Small forward Otto Porter has come into his own as well, ranked #6 at his position in REAL plus/minus, behind the likes of LeBron, Kawhi, Greek Freak, Durant and Jimmy Butler. Marcin Gortat is cleaning up in the low post, Beal is draining three?s, and despite a relatively weak bench, Scott Brooks has a surging, confident team right now.
The Wizards are rested and ready, playing only their third game in the last seven days, all at home. The Grizzlies are on the other end of the ?rested and ready? spectrum. This will be their 14th consecutive court change, a brutal scheduling stretch that has left them without back-2-back home games since the week before Christmas. They?ve played in all four US time zones in their last six games; looking gassed and out of sync in a home loss to Chicago in their last contest.
Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale, talking about how he?s trying to patch things through the Grizzlies rough scheduling stretch and their near constant battle with key injuries: ?We?re trying to feel our way through this thing and see what works and what doesn?t work as we get these guys back healthy and getting their legs under them. We?ve just got to figure it out...and be more consistent.? That?s no bet-on quote!
Bucks at Rockets
Play: Under 225
The Houston Rockets come home following a 109-103 loss in Miami last night to play an up and coming Milwaukee Bucks squad. We will be taking the UNDER as we have a total of 225 at the time of this writing which we believe is a little high. We had this total at 221 so there is plenty of value for us here. Milwaukee is ranked 10th in opponents points per game and we see them trying to play more defense than getting into a run and gun game with the Rockets. The Rockets are also fighting the injury bug. Ryan Anderson is recovering from the flu and Eric Gordon was hurt last night and even if they both play they will not be close to 100%. In the Bucks last 35 games only 2 have gone OVER today's posted total. We know Houston are the second highest scoring team in the NBA but back to back games with a club not a 100% healthy has us on the UNDER here.
Montreal -110
It's never a snap to fade the powerful Penguins, but I think I have to do that here. Pittsburgh is off one of the craziest wins I've seen in ages. The Pens rallied from a 3-0 deficit, then blew 5-3 and 7-5 leads before getting the overtime win against the Capitals on Monday night. That game was absolutely insane, and wheeling back on the road 48 hours later doesn't figure to be easy. On the flip side, Montreal should be pretty geared up for this game. They came out on the short end of an overtime thriller the last time they faced Pittsburgh. In that game, the Habs were up one goal before the Penguins tied it with less than one minute to play in regulation. In the overtime, Montreal got tagged for having too many men on the ice when they botched a change while trying to prevent a 2-0n-1 break and Pittsburgh skated away with the win on a power play goal. There's no such thing as a perfect storm in handicapping, but I think this one is pretty good. I'll play the Canadiens at close to even money on Wednesday night.
Arizona +160 over WINNIPEG
OT included. Michael Hutchison was a great goaltender when he first came up to the Jets and now his head is spinning. Connor Hellebucyk was also a great goaltender when he first came up and now his head is spinning too. Andrej Pavelec?s head isn?t spinning because the Jets are paying him four million a year to play minor league hockey.
Winnipeg has dropped four in a row and five of six. They have allowed 19 goals against in their last four losses. Coach Paul Maurice is blaming weak goaltending on his teams? woes. Don?t blame Michael Hutchison and don?t blame Connor Hellebucyk. Blame the Jets? idiot coach for not sticking with one guy for an extended period of time instead of alternating them whenever one had a bad game. Getting constantly yanked and/or benched ruins one?s confidence. Without confidence, you cannot succeed in pro sports. Now Maurice has two mentally damaged goaltenders on his hands. Instead of picking one or the other, Maurice summoned for Andrej Pavelec, a goaltender that he did the same thing to. Pavelec will now play in his first NHL game since last April. Pavelec?s numbers were horrible last year and he?ll now come in and try and save Winnipeg?s season under heavy media and fan scrutiny. The Jets return home from a three-game trip through Arizona, Los Angeles and San Jose to face the Coyotes in front of their ?tired of waiting? fans. Paul Maurice has ruined this team and the players aren?t responding to him anyway. The Jets are wasting a ton of talent and while it would be damn foolish to think they can?t win here, we?ll gladly take our chances because Winnipeg is fragile and on the verge of a coaching change.
Arizona is fragile too but in a different way. The Coyotes don?t have the talent that the Jets have so they struggle to win games and that plays on their minds. However, they have a great coach, they?re on the right track and they?re playing better as of late without the results. Arizona has held five of its last seven opponents to 27, 23, 28, 24 and 24 shots on net. The Coyotes have picked up points in three of its last five games. Arizona?s talented defense and its work ethic make them very worthy of a bet in certain situations and this is one of them. The bet here is a fade against Winnipeg, who cannot be favored in this range. Damn straight the ?Yotes can win here.
EDMONTON -1? +180 over Florida
The Panthers played in Calgary last night and lost 5-2 but that was a flattering score to the Panthers, as they probably should have lost 7-0. Florida?s first two goals came on their first nine shots and both were by Vincent Trocheck in virtually the exact same spot. Calgary had two goals overturned in the third period that were both coaches? challenges for offside. Both offsides were by a fraction of an inch (if that), which took the refs quite some time to determine in both instances.
Florida had 12 shots about midway through the third period last night before the Flames took a series of penalties that resulted in four minutes of power play time. The Panthers also pulled their goalie with 3 minutes remaining and a man advantage so it was a 6-on-4 situation. The 11 shots on net by the Panthers in the third period looks prettier on paper than it did on the ice. With that loss last night, Florida is now 5-18 against top-16 teams. The Panthers were running around (badly) in their own end last night and that?s tiring. Playing the second game of back-to-backs against the speedy Oilers is not a recipe for success. The Panthers are laboring miserably.
Edmonton has allowed 22, 25, 19, 18 and 20 shots on net in five of its last six games while dominating the time of possession, scoring chances and shots on net. Edmonton has won three in a row and five of seven but the puck is not going in for them like it should be. Edmonton has either run into some hot goaltending of its luck around the net has been poor. Incredibly, the Oil has scored three goals or less in 16 of their last 17 games but they are not going to be contained much longer. Edmonton creates a ton of high quality scoring chances. In that regard, they rank sixth in the league and somebody is going to pay. The Oilers rank top-6 in several other analytical categories too so their lack of goals scored recently is in line for a major correction. This visitor could provide that correction.
Coyotes vs. Jets
Play: Over 5?
The Coyotes struggle to score goals. There is no doubt about that. But Arizona may have found the perfect host to get their struggling offense back on track. Winnipeg comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak where they have allowed a total of 19 goals in the 4 games! Not surprisingly, none of these 4 games resulted in an under. The Jets have now allowed 4 goals or more in 7 of their last 10 games! The Coyotes have also had trouble keeping the puck out of their own net. Arizona has allowed at least 3 goals in 12 of its last 13 games! There is hope for the Coyotes do get some goal production going again here as they have averaged 3 goals per game in their last 4 games against Winnipeg. 3 of those 4 games have gone over the total and I expect another one here. The Jets are 16-10 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Look for the recent Winnipeg struggles in their own end to bring out the best in the Coyotes offense while the Jets continue to score well (47 goals in their last 15 games).
CareerBuilder Challenge
From Hawaii, we say hello to the West Coast and Coachella Valley for the first celebrity Pro-Am of the calendar year. The CareerBuilder Challenge will once again be sponsored by the Clinton Foundation. This course is one of those tricky rotating course events with three different tracks hosting the first trio of rounds and it is an excellent test of mettle for a field slightly low on quality with the elite seeking their fortune elsewhere. Still, that?s good news for us because the chances of a longshot coming in increases.
The trio of courses in the rotation are the TPC Stadium Course, which will also host the final round and measures in at 7,113 yards for its Par 72; the Nicklaus Tournament Course (Par 72, 7,159 yards) and La Quinta CC, which measures 7,060 yards and has a stroke index of Par 72 also. The Stadium Course garners the most attention thanks to its tariff of difficulty, which back in the late 1980?s was considered one of the toughest tests on Tour. The Jack Nicklaus designed Tournament course is said to be ?forgiving off the tee but demanding around the greens,? with well-placed hazards in the final third causing the occasional headache. The extra room off the tee certainly contributed to the low scoring in 2016, however. La Quinta was the easiest of the three courses, certainly through round one anyway, with a stroke average of 69.596; bettering the 69.424 set by the Nicklaus and the 71.825 mark of the Stadium Course.
We?re going to place an emphasis on decent putting ? as last year?s winner (Dufner) gained 1.48 strokes on the field with his flat stick, and Par 4 Scoring (Dufner played the regulation holes in -12). All in all, seven of the top-10 in 2016 gained at least 1.00 shots on the field with their putter, and 6/10 via Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, so a decent all-round contribution will be required.
The following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.
The head to head match-ups will be bet at .
Jamie Lovemark 30-1
We almost always look for odds higher than 30-1 but Lovermark is on the verge of a win and we don?t want to miss it if he pops this week. His effort at the Sony Open last week was tremendous, a T4 finish backed by an outstanding effort with the putter by gaining 1.861 shots on the field. A hot flat stick is never a bad thing, and perhaps explains why Lovemark has served up a pair of top-10 finishes in his last two starts. A proud Californian, he will be determined to get stuck into his hometown tournament here, and in finishing T6 in the first outing for the new rotation of courses in 2016, he gave us a fantastic insight into what to expect. Yet to break his duck on the PGA TOUR despite eight top-10 finishes, a tournament he enjoys in limited company could well give Lovemark the opportunity he desires (risking 0.4 units to win 12 units).
Head-to-head
J. Lovemark +117 over J. Rahm (risking 1 unit).
Cameron Smith 80-1
We?ve discussed having in-form players who are decent putters on board this week and Cameron Smith fits the bill excellently. A string of form reading 11-10-42-27 is pleasing on the eye and in ranking inside the world?s top 40 for Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and Strokes Gained Putting, Smith?s game appears ideally suited for this Californian test. The Aussie boasts some lovely stats for Proximity to the Hole and Birdie-Making too, so let?s sign him up without hesitation at these odds. He has other key stats too that include - Total Birdies - ranked 11th, Par 4 Scoring Average ? ranked 20th and Strokes Gained Putting ranked ? 40th (risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).
Head-to-head
C. Smith -108 over S. Kjeldsen (risking 1.08 units to win 1).
Michael Thompson 150-1
A hot putter that is heating up quite nicely at the moment belongs to Michael Thompson, who holds some excellent value this week. He can be inconsistent, which is why he?s priced so high but the risk is worth the reward. A T13 at the RSM Classic and T20 at the Sony Open in his last two starts suggest things are going in the right direction. That performance in Hawaii ? where he carded scores of 65 and a closing 63 ? was outstanding, and he claimed an incredible 2.00 shots on the field with his putter; which should help on these probable dull and wet greens. His career strike rate is roughly 20% for finishing in the top-25 (34 in 155), and on tracks like this that should suit him, let?s hope he can be in the mix on Sunday and give us a chance to cash something. Some of Thompson?s key stats are Strokes Gained Putting ? ranked 14th, approaches from > 200 yds ? ranked 25th and Scoring Average, ranked ? 50th (risking 0.2 units to win 30 units).
Note: There are no heads up matches available for Thompson
Martin Laird 50-1
Scotsman Laird is the archetypal sleeper, as he?s consistently finishing higher than his odds would suggest, including T8 at the Safeway Open, T27 at Shriners, and T13 at Mayakoba in his last trio of outings. A T15 here in 2015 offers some further encouragement, and Laird?s natural eye ? he pounds fairways and greens and can, on his day, putt the lights out ? should suit the new set-up too. If the wind picks up, Laird?s great efficiency off the tee could well become a secret weapon to savor. Laird is not without some key stats either, as his Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green is ranked 7th, his Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is ranked 15th and his Putting Average is ranked 34th. Dude is absolutely worth a bet here (risking 0.2 units to win 10).
Head-to-head
M. Laird -119 over C. Hoffman (risking 1.19 units to win 1).
Jon Huh 66-1
Although Huh has not taken off like it looked like he would after starting his career with consecutive seasons finishing in the top-45 of the FedExCup standings, he has remained a consistent force on the PGA TOUR and made it to the weekend 53 times over 87 starts (61%) between 2014 and 2016. His steady play has allowed him to kick off the New Year in fantastic fashion, going 6-for-6 in cuts made with a top-10 at the Shriners Open. He?s been under par by double-digits at each of his last four starts and is currently riding a streak of eight consecutive rounds in the 60s due to his ability to scramble (72.22%, 12th on Tour) and gain strokes with his approach to the green (0.761, 26th on Tour). He should stay out of trouble this week and improve on his start last year when he came away from this event in 24th. Great price on a great golfer (risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head-to-head
J. Huh -117 over H. Varner III (risking 1.17 units to win 1).
