12:35 PM MLB [951] New York Mets -152 ( N Syndergaard - R /DeSclafani)
01:10 PM MLB [966] Tampa Bay Rays +106 ( D Bundy - R / D Smyly)
02:10 PM MLB [968] Chicago White Sox -128 ( A Sanchez - R /Quintana)
1 unit bet pays 5 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay laeter
MLB parlays: 14-153, -41.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
Over is 14-1 in last 15 games at Target Field...Over is 44-16-2 in MIN last 62 home games....Minnesota lost 15 of last 17 games.
definitely take the over again tonight. And you do not want to list pitchers, just do 'action' in case there is a change!
and take KC to win. They have to keep winning to get that wild card. This string of games vs poor teams is just what they needed. They seem to be taking advantage of it.
The Twins pitching is simply terrible of late, and Gibson is one of the culprits. Tho when he does throw a decent game, he usually doesn't go deep.
some hot bats on both teams now, like Dozier and Morales. Tho Dozier has no home runs vs Duffy in over 30 at bats...
KC has won 7 straight vs MN, outscored them 57-18
last night KC managed to score a bunch of runs late:
"We were trying to keep (closer) Wade (Davis) out of the game," said Royals manager Ned Yost. "We've really pounded our back-end relievers the last two weeks. Every opportunity to give them an extra day is always huge."
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Mets/Reds Under 8?
We are getting some big time value on the total in today's afternoon matchup between the Reds and Mets. Two of the NL's best starters will be facing off in this one and runs are going to be at a premium.
Cincinnati gives the ball to Anthony Desclafani, who is one of the most underrated starters in the majors. Since joining the rotation in June, Desclafani has gone 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 16 starts. He's been absolutely dominant in his last two outings, giving up just 2 runs on 10 hits in 16 innings of work. The Mets counter with Noah Syndergaard, who is 12-8 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 26 starts. Syndergaard has been dominant on the road with a 2.63 ERA in 11 starts and has a 1.23 ERA and 0.545 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
UNDER is 20-8 in Desclafani's last 28 starts when listed as an underdog, 9-1 in the Mets last 10 after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less in 4 straight games and 14-5 in New York's last 19 day road games.
The Brewers are 13-3 in their past 16 home games vs. a lefty starter.
COL are 59-20 in De La Rosas last 79 home starts.
Over is 12-3-1 in TEX last 16 overall.
L.A. Angels @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND -105 over L.A. Angels
This is a day game after a night game between two teams going nowhere so one can expect the Angels to sit some of their vets. Our position here is that Oakland cares more while the Angels will look forward to a day off tomorrow before returning home to face the contending Rangers for a three-game weekend set. It?s also rookie starter v rookie starter here and we give a big edge to not only Oakland?s rookie but to the A?s bullpen as well.
We suppose one could call Alex Meyer a rookie considering he?s pitched in only four MLB games in his career with two of those coming last year and two coming this year. Meyer is now 26-years-old and has spent the past five seasons in the minors where he has thrown 458 innings. He has a very impressive 532 K?s in those 458 innings but the problem is the 195 walks he?s issued. In his only start this year on May 3, Meyer lasted just 2.2 innings against the free-swinging Astros after walking three batters and allowing three hits and three earned runs. His xERA in that start was 6.99. In one relief appearance in late April, Meyer surrendered five hits in one inning and walked a better also. Those two aforementioned appearances came as a member of the pitching starved Minnesota Twins but at the deadline the Twinkies were able to deal him and Ricky Nolasco for Hector Santiago and minor leaguer Alan Busenitz. Meyer has thrown just 11 innings since August 12, He?s suffered two bouts of shoulder inflammation already this year that landed him on the DL. Once a major sought after prospect that was deemed a ?can?t miss? top of the rotation guy, Minnesota finally gave up on Meyer when they dealt him for a nobody on deadline day.
When a team like Minnesota, who has not had an ace since Jack Morris in 1991, gives up on you, it is telling. Of all the teams in MLB, Minnesota is the very last one that can afford to give up on a prospect so they had to be damn sure about giving up on this one. That?s all the info we need to proceed against Meyer here.
The Athletics rookie is Jharel Cotton. The A?s promoted this 24-year-old from Triple-A to make his major league debut today (Wednesday, September 7). Cotton was obtained via trade from the Dodgers at the trade deadline and he certainly has a clear path to the starting rotation. Though not blessed with ideal size (5?11?), he is a terrific athlete. He?s gained velocity as he?s gotten older and now sits in the 91-93 mph range. He can also reach back and hit 96 mph on occasion. Cotton owns two breaking balls but his best pitch is his plus change-up that serves as his go-to pitch. It is potent against hitters from both sides and his arm speed is exactly the same as his other pitches. Cotton?s fastball also gives him additional deception, as he changes speeds with it as well as cleverly adding movement. Some scouts still see him eventually moving to the bullpen because of his natural arm action and effort-filled delivery. He could become a dynamic late-innings arm but he?s added stamina over the years and his size has yet to be a negative factor. He also pitched in the 2016 Futures Game. Over his last 12 starts in the very difficult Pacific Coast League, Cotton?s oppBA against was .220 or less in every single start. That?s incredible. Cotton has all the tools. He limits walks, he keeps the ball down in the zone and he can strike people out too. Oakland has tremendous value here as a small favorite with the superior rookie and a more favorable situation.
Jharel Cotton, RHP, who will be making his Major League debut, posted a 2.82 ERA in six starts for Triple-A Nashville following his trade from the Dodgers in July. He has a 3.68 ERA in 100 Minor League appearances (65 starts) overall.
The Scouting Report: Cotton has progressed to the majors at a slow-and-steady pace. The 24-year-old fights standard stigmas as an undersized right-hander without great feel for a breaking ball, but he has consistently made it work on the back of a solid top-two, and some recent development with a work-around third pitch gives rise to optimism that he can stick as a starter.
He?s well-built, with broad shoulders, a thick chest, and a sturdy base that can hold some innings. The delivery begins with a loose progression through his early rock and takeaway check points, and, coupled with some rigidity in his leg kick, there are some early timing inconsistencies in the delivery that can sidetrack his command when he gets unbalanced. He?s fairly closed into a mild back-side collapse, with an uphill arm path to a higher three-quarters slot. The higher angle helps offset some of his not-there inches, and he employs a fairly short, closed stride that helps him come up and over to create a later pickup for hitters.
His fastball will sit in the 92-94 range with a couple miles-an-hour in the tank, and it?s a north-south four-seamer that can get on hitters quickly. It doesn?t have a ton of horizontal movement, but it does feature above-average ?rise? to stay on plane longer and get above barrels. It plays up in the zone thanks to the deception and velocity, though his command of the pitch will wander, and the frequency with which he attacks above the belt leaves him vulnerable to the long ball.
He pairs the fastball with a truly devastating changeup, which he sells with excellent arm speed. The pitch has excellent plane from his arm slot, and he generates extreme tumble and velocity separation, often running 15-plus mile-an-hour differentials. It?s an easy plus pitch, and when he has feel for it and keeps it down consistently it?ll run double-plus.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees +1?
Bryan Mitchell makes his 2016 debut for the Yankees on Wednesday as they continue their series with the Jays. Mitchell has a 4.29 ERA over six starts in the minors. He actually pitched his best in Triple-A where he allowed two runs and eight hits in nine innings striking out 14. Mitchell is facing a Toronto team hitting .235 on the road and .242 in their last seven games. Dellin Betances should be available in this one after not being used on Tuesday. Marcus Stroman is 5-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 14 road starts for the Jays. He has allowed nine runs and 14 hits in his last two starts against light hitting Tampa Bay and the Twins. The Yankees are 39-28 at home hitting .256 as a team there. They have won three straight and five of their last seven. Toronto's bullpen blew another one last night and now has 27 losses and 16 blown saves on the season. I think there's some value on the Yankees runline in this one.
Atlanta @ WASHINGTON
Atlanta +210 over WASHINGTON
Stephen Strasburg returns from the DL for this start and while it is quite conceivable that he thrives, it is also possible that he struggles, as many pitchers do their first game back. It?s usually oversimplified to say "health is everything" but take a gander at Strasburg?s skills history. Start with his xERA, move to his control/K-rates/command and first-pitch strike rate/swinging strike rate then to his overall skills. Strasburg has pitched around ankle, neck, back and oblique injuries since arriving and still dominates for stretches. "What if??. Nonetheless, we deal with what is and Strasburg is too big a risk at a price like this against the pesky Braves and against a pitcher that will never be priced in this range again anytime soon.
Keep Mike Foltynewicz at the top of your list of undervalued pitchers because he is on the verge of exploding onto the scene. If Foltynewicz was pitching for a team like the Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays or Cubbies among others he would be a big favorite almost every start. It took a little time but Foltynewicz has now shown sustained signs in 2016 of translating his wicked raw stuff into skills. In spite of a 4.31 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, Foltynewicz has posted an impressive collection of skills: 8.2 K?s/9, 2.4 BB?s/9, 43% grounders. Even more impressive was his 11.1% swing and miss rate in July and August and 33% ball%, a reflection of both his stuff and improving volume of strikes. In addition to his mid-90s fastball that has been highly regarded by scouts, Foltynewicz is getting a 10%+ swing and miss rate on four additional pitches. The window to buy low on him will close quickly, which makes too good to pass up on at a price like this. Incidentally, the Braves have been playing very competitive baseball over the past month and remain a tough out.
Pittsburgh -125
Jameson Taillon has become the Pirates' best pitcher. I trust him to end Pittsburgh's eight-game losing streak here.
The Cardinals have never faced Taillon, who has a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight home starts. The Pirates are 8-3 in Taillon's last 11 starts. Taillon is a great control pitcher having walked only 12 in 83 innings.
This is a must-win spot for the Pirates, trailing the Cardinals by 5 1/2 games for a wild-card spot. The Cardinals may be a bit fat and happy here having won the first two games of this series, including pulling one out last night by scoring four runs in the ninth inning. This also marks the end of St. Louis' nine-game road trip. So the Cardinals' focus may be a bit off as they return home to host the Brewers on Thursday.
Along with a play-on Taillon and this being a good spot for the Pirates the third part of this handicap is a fade on Cardinals starter Mike Leake. He defines mediocrity in my book with a 9-9 record and 4.56 ERA. Leake hasn't pitched in more than two weeks having been sidelined by shingles.
The Pirates know Leake well having faced him 27 times with current members batting .278 against him. I'm not a fan of Leake to start with and I certainly don't like him when he's rusty and doesn't figure to go deep into the game.
White Sox -118
Chicago is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Tigers on Wednesday. The White Sox bounced back from a loss in the series opener to take yesterday's matchup 2-0 behind a great performance from starter Miguel Gonzalez. I look for Detroit's hitters to struggle again here against lefty Jose Quintana, who has a 3.04 ERA in 27 starts and an even better 2.70 ERA in 11 home starts. Chicago's offense should be able to provide enough run support, as they face off against the struggling Anibal Sanchez. He's just 5-12 with a 5.99 ERA in 23 starts. Most of those struggles have come on the road, where he's 2-6 with an awful 7.36 ERA in 12 road starts. Tigers are 1-10 in Sanchez's last 11 starts following a loss.
In the Sights?
Back in the early part of the season the added zip on Danny Duffy?s stuff was a major focus point, the Royals indirectly sharpening his skills by having him begin the season out of the bullpen. There may have been some consequences to that, however, Duffy now appearing to be wearing down, and that helps to set us up for #975 Royals/Twins Over (8:10 Eastern), the early markets helping out by opening up 9 as a win number.
A problem with Duffy beginning the campaign in the bullpen, his first start not coming until May 15, was one of not developing the stamina to go the distance when put back into a starter?s role. He has not been able to finish the 6th inning in his last two starts, getting tagged for 11 runs over 10.2 frames, on 18 hits, 3 walks and 4 home runs. But it was in what seemed like a good start three games back against these Twins that cracks were showing ? while he only allowed one run over 6.2 frames, the Minnesota offense produced 10 base-runners via hit or walk. Now Duffy takes the mound having already matched his career high of 149.1 frames, and the closing salvo to the season may not go well for him.
Not much has gone well for Kyle Gibson in a dismal 5-9/5.31 campaign, the inherent difficulties of a pitch-to-contact guy playing with a bad defense behind him. It may look like a .330 BABIP has been some bad baseball geometry for Gibson, but the Twins as a team are dead last at .323, so it is indeed a bad combination. PADE pegs the Minnesota defense at #28, and you may remember back to an earlier lead take on the foibles of those gloves. Gibson does not have the form to eat innings, having reached the 6th only once over his last seven starts, and that can lead to some ugliness late, with the Twins bullpen a mess right now, having allowed 21 runs over the last three games, throwing 284 pitches in the process.
It does not take an explosion here, just getting each team to four runs means a win, and that is more than fair value to work with.
Rangers at Mariners
Pick: Over
A pair of Top 11 offenses in baseball clash in Safeco. Texas is on a 12-3-1 run over the total. Starter A.J. Griffin (4.41 ERA) has a 4.61 ERA on the road walking 24 batters in 54+ innings. Seattle is home on a 6-1 run over the total, including 7-1 over against the American League West. Starter Ariel Miranda (5.76 ERA) goes for Seattle, allowing more hits than innings pitched plus 54 base runners in 29+ innings. The Over is 7-3 in the Mariners last 10 home games, plus 5-2 over when they clash in Seattle.
San Fran @ COLORADO
Albert Suarez already had been tabbed the starter in what would have been Matt Cain?s rotation spot against the Cubs on Sept. 2 and Suarez more than held his own in allowing two earned runs on three hits in his five innings. Manager Bruce Bochy has stated his intent to make Suarez the fifth starter, which means that Cain?s next appearance out of the bullpen will be only his fourth in what would be his 312th career game. Including the outing vs. Chicago, Suarez has started eight games for the Giants in 2016, with a 1.12 WHIP, 7.1 K?s/9 and 3.0 BB?s/9 in 42 innings during those starts. Suarez?s overall skills compares favorably to Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija, making him a a decent, very under the radar target here.
Southpaw Jorge de la Rosa has a 10%/45% dominant start/disaster start split this season that is reflected in his uninspiring 5.09 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Dude has walked 55 batters in 120 innings for a troubling BB?s/9 rate of 4.0. de la Rosa will throw the occasional gem but his velocity drop and age assures us of some abbreviated starts too. There are more warning flags surrounding de La Rosa as well. His first-pitch strike rate over his past seven starts was a league low, 51%. His first-pitch strike rate in his last start was 44%. de la Rosa is 35-years-old and it is common to see him throw over 100 pitches to get through five innings. He's laboring through almost every inning he pitches. The increase in his ball % is a sure sign of fatigue. Do you really want to spot a tag at this park with a pitcher who is walking far too many hitters, iis constantly behind in the count and that is surrounded by traffic just about every frame? Play the value and take the Giants.
01:10 PM MLB [966] Tampa Bay Rays +106 ( D Bundy - R / D Smyly)
02:10 PM MLB [968] Chicago White Sox -128 ( A Sanchez - R /Quintana)
1 unit bet pays 5 ....betdsi line ... evening parlay laeter
MLB parlays: 14-153, -41.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
Over is 14-1 in last 15 games at Target Field...Over is 44-16-2 in MIN last 62 home games....Minnesota lost 15 of last 17 games.
definitely take the over again tonight. And you do not want to list pitchers, just do 'action' in case there is a change!
and take KC to win. They have to keep winning to get that wild card. This string of games vs poor teams is just what they needed. They seem to be taking advantage of it.
The Twins pitching is simply terrible of late, and Gibson is one of the culprits. Tho when he does throw a decent game, he usually doesn't go deep.
some hot bats on both teams now, like Dozier and Morales. Tho Dozier has no home runs vs Duffy in over 30 at bats...
KC has won 7 straight vs MN, outscored them 57-18
last night KC managed to score a bunch of runs late:
"We were trying to keep (closer) Wade (Davis) out of the game," said Royals manager Ned Yost. "We've really pounded our back-end relievers the last two weeks. Every opportunity to give them an extra day is always huge."
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Mets/Reds Under 8?
We are getting some big time value on the total in today's afternoon matchup between the Reds and Mets. Two of the NL's best starters will be facing off in this one and runs are going to be at a premium.
Cincinnati gives the ball to Anthony Desclafani, who is one of the most underrated starters in the majors. Since joining the rotation in June, Desclafani has gone 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 16 starts. He's been absolutely dominant in his last two outings, giving up just 2 runs on 10 hits in 16 innings of work. The Mets counter with Noah Syndergaard, who is 12-8 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 26 starts. Syndergaard has been dominant on the road with a 2.63 ERA in 11 starts and has a 1.23 ERA and 0.545 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
UNDER is 20-8 in Desclafani's last 28 starts when listed as an underdog, 9-1 in the Mets last 10 after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less in 4 straight games and 14-5 in New York's last 19 day road games.
The Brewers are 13-3 in their past 16 home games vs. a lefty starter.
COL are 59-20 in De La Rosas last 79 home starts.
Over is 12-3-1 in TEX last 16 overall.
L.A. Angels @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND -105 over L.A. Angels
This is a day game after a night game between two teams going nowhere so one can expect the Angels to sit some of their vets. Our position here is that Oakland cares more while the Angels will look forward to a day off tomorrow before returning home to face the contending Rangers for a three-game weekend set. It?s also rookie starter v rookie starter here and we give a big edge to not only Oakland?s rookie but to the A?s bullpen as well.
We suppose one could call Alex Meyer a rookie considering he?s pitched in only four MLB games in his career with two of those coming last year and two coming this year. Meyer is now 26-years-old and has spent the past five seasons in the minors where he has thrown 458 innings. He has a very impressive 532 K?s in those 458 innings but the problem is the 195 walks he?s issued. In his only start this year on May 3, Meyer lasted just 2.2 innings against the free-swinging Astros after walking three batters and allowing three hits and three earned runs. His xERA in that start was 6.99. In one relief appearance in late April, Meyer surrendered five hits in one inning and walked a better also. Those two aforementioned appearances came as a member of the pitching starved Minnesota Twins but at the deadline the Twinkies were able to deal him and Ricky Nolasco for Hector Santiago and minor leaguer Alan Busenitz. Meyer has thrown just 11 innings since August 12, He?s suffered two bouts of shoulder inflammation already this year that landed him on the DL. Once a major sought after prospect that was deemed a ?can?t miss? top of the rotation guy, Minnesota finally gave up on Meyer when they dealt him for a nobody on deadline day.
When a team like Minnesota, who has not had an ace since Jack Morris in 1991, gives up on you, it is telling. Of all the teams in MLB, Minnesota is the very last one that can afford to give up on a prospect so they had to be damn sure about giving up on this one. That?s all the info we need to proceed against Meyer here.
The Athletics rookie is Jharel Cotton. The A?s promoted this 24-year-old from Triple-A to make his major league debut today (Wednesday, September 7). Cotton was obtained via trade from the Dodgers at the trade deadline and he certainly has a clear path to the starting rotation. Though not blessed with ideal size (5?11?), he is a terrific athlete. He?s gained velocity as he?s gotten older and now sits in the 91-93 mph range. He can also reach back and hit 96 mph on occasion. Cotton owns two breaking balls but his best pitch is his plus change-up that serves as his go-to pitch. It is potent against hitters from both sides and his arm speed is exactly the same as his other pitches. Cotton?s fastball also gives him additional deception, as he changes speeds with it as well as cleverly adding movement. Some scouts still see him eventually moving to the bullpen because of his natural arm action and effort-filled delivery. He could become a dynamic late-innings arm but he?s added stamina over the years and his size has yet to be a negative factor. He also pitched in the 2016 Futures Game. Over his last 12 starts in the very difficult Pacific Coast League, Cotton?s oppBA against was .220 or less in every single start. That?s incredible. Cotton has all the tools. He limits walks, he keeps the ball down in the zone and he can strike people out too. Oakland has tremendous value here as a small favorite with the superior rookie and a more favorable situation.
Jharel Cotton, RHP, who will be making his Major League debut, posted a 2.82 ERA in six starts for Triple-A Nashville following his trade from the Dodgers in July. He has a 3.68 ERA in 100 Minor League appearances (65 starts) overall.
The Scouting Report: Cotton has progressed to the majors at a slow-and-steady pace. The 24-year-old fights standard stigmas as an undersized right-hander without great feel for a breaking ball, but he has consistently made it work on the back of a solid top-two, and some recent development with a work-around third pitch gives rise to optimism that he can stick as a starter.
He?s well-built, with broad shoulders, a thick chest, and a sturdy base that can hold some innings. The delivery begins with a loose progression through his early rock and takeaway check points, and, coupled with some rigidity in his leg kick, there are some early timing inconsistencies in the delivery that can sidetrack his command when he gets unbalanced. He?s fairly closed into a mild back-side collapse, with an uphill arm path to a higher three-quarters slot. The higher angle helps offset some of his not-there inches, and he employs a fairly short, closed stride that helps him come up and over to create a later pickup for hitters.
His fastball will sit in the 92-94 range with a couple miles-an-hour in the tank, and it?s a north-south four-seamer that can get on hitters quickly. It doesn?t have a ton of horizontal movement, but it does feature above-average ?rise? to stay on plane longer and get above barrels. It plays up in the zone thanks to the deception and velocity, though his command of the pitch will wander, and the frequency with which he attacks above the belt leaves him vulnerable to the long ball.
He pairs the fastball with a truly devastating changeup, which he sells with excellent arm speed. The pitch has excellent plane from his arm slot, and he generates extreme tumble and velocity separation, often running 15-plus mile-an-hour differentials. It?s an easy plus pitch, and when he has feel for it and keeps it down consistently it?ll run double-plus.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees +1?
Bryan Mitchell makes his 2016 debut for the Yankees on Wednesday as they continue their series with the Jays. Mitchell has a 4.29 ERA over six starts in the minors. He actually pitched his best in Triple-A where he allowed two runs and eight hits in nine innings striking out 14. Mitchell is facing a Toronto team hitting .235 on the road and .242 in their last seven games. Dellin Betances should be available in this one after not being used on Tuesday. Marcus Stroman is 5-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 14 road starts for the Jays. He has allowed nine runs and 14 hits in his last two starts against light hitting Tampa Bay and the Twins. The Yankees are 39-28 at home hitting .256 as a team there. They have won three straight and five of their last seven. Toronto's bullpen blew another one last night and now has 27 losses and 16 blown saves on the season. I think there's some value on the Yankees runline in this one.
Atlanta @ WASHINGTON
Atlanta +210 over WASHINGTON
Stephen Strasburg returns from the DL for this start and while it is quite conceivable that he thrives, it is also possible that he struggles, as many pitchers do their first game back. It?s usually oversimplified to say "health is everything" but take a gander at Strasburg?s skills history. Start with his xERA, move to his control/K-rates/command and first-pitch strike rate/swinging strike rate then to his overall skills. Strasburg has pitched around ankle, neck, back and oblique injuries since arriving and still dominates for stretches. "What if??. Nonetheless, we deal with what is and Strasburg is too big a risk at a price like this against the pesky Braves and against a pitcher that will never be priced in this range again anytime soon.
Keep Mike Foltynewicz at the top of your list of undervalued pitchers because he is on the verge of exploding onto the scene. If Foltynewicz was pitching for a team like the Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays or Cubbies among others he would be a big favorite almost every start. It took a little time but Foltynewicz has now shown sustained signs in 2016 of translating his wicked raw stuff into skills. In spite of a 4.31 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, Foltynewicz has posted an impressive collection of skills: 8.2 K?s/9, 2.4 BB?s/9, 43% grounders. Even more impressive was his 11.1% swing and miss rate in July and August and 33% ball%, a reflection of both his stuff and improving volume of strikes. In addition to his mid-90s fastball that has been highly regarded by scouts, Foltynewicz is getting a 10%+ swing and miss rate on four additional pitches. The window to buy low on him will close quickly, which makes too good to pass up on at a price like this. Incidentally, the Braves have been playing very competitive baseball over the past month and remain a tough out.
Pittsburgh -125
Jameson Taillon has become the Pirates' best pitcher. I trust him to end Pittsburgh's eight-game losing streak here.
The Cardinals have never faced Taillon, who has a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight home starts. The Pirates are 8-3 in Taillon's last 11 starts. Taillon is a great control pitcher having walked only 12 in 83 innings.
This is a must-win spot for the Pirates, trailing the Cardinals by 5 1/2 games for a wild-card spot. The Cardinals may be a bit fat and happy here having won the first two games of this series, including pulling one out last night by scoring four runs in the ninth inning. This also marks the end of St. Louis' nine-game road trip. So the Cardinals' focus may be a bit off as they return home to host the Brewers on Thursday.
Along with a play-on Taillon and this being a good spot for the Pirates the third part of this handicap is a fade on Cardinals starter Mike Leake. He defines mediocrity in my book with a 9-9 record and 4.56 ERA. Leake hasn't pitched in more than two weeks having been sidelined by shingles.
The Pirates know Leake well having faced him 27 times with current members batting .278 against him. I'm not a fan of Leake to start with and I certainly don't like him when he's rusty and doesn't figure to go deep into the game.
White Sox -118
Chicago is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Tigers on Wednesday. The White Sox bounced back from a loss in the series opener to take yesterday's matchup 2-0 behind a great performance from starter Miguel Gonzalez. I look for Detroit's hitters to struggle again here against lefty Jose Quintana, who has a 3.04 ERA in 27 starts and an even better 2.70 ERA in 11 home starts. Chicago's offense should be able to provide enough run support, as they face off against the struggling Anibal Sanchez. He's just 5-12 with a 5.99 ERA in 23 starts. Most of those struggles have come on the road, where he's 2-6 with an awful 7.36 ERA in 12 road starts. Tigers are 1-10 in Sanchez's last 11 starts following a loss.
In the Sights?
Back in the early part of the season the added zip on Danny Duffy?s stuff was a major focus point, the Royals indirectly sharpening his skills by having him begin the season out of the bullpen. There may have been some consequences to that, however, Duffy now appearing to be wearing down, and that helps to set us up for #975 Royals/Twins Over (8:10 Eastern), the early markets helping out by opening up 9 as a win number.
A problem with Duffy beginning the campaign in the bullpen, his first start not coming until May 15, was one of not developing the stamina to go the distance when put back into a starter?s role. He has not been able to finish the 6th inning in his last two starts, getting tagged for 11 runs over 10.2 frames, on 18 hits, 3 walks and 4 home runs. But it was in what seemed like a good start three games back against these Twins that cracks were showing ? while he only allowed one run over 6.2 frames, the Minnesota offense produced 10 base-runners via hit or walk. Now Duffy takes the mound having already matched his career high of 149.1 frames, and the closing salvo to the season may not go well for him.
Not much has gone well for Kyle Gibson in a dismal 5-9/5.31 campaign, the inherent difficulties of a pitch-to-contact guy playing with a bad defense behind him. It may look like a .330 BABIP has been some bad baseball geometry for Gibson, but the Twins as a team are dead last at .323, so it is indeed a bad combination. PADE pegs the Minnesota defense at #28, and you may remember back to an earlier lead take on the foibles of those gloves. Gibson does not have the form to eat innings, having reached the 6th only once over his last seven starts, and that can lead to some ugliness late, with the Twins bullpen a mess right now, having allowed 21 runs over the last three games, throwing 284 pitches in the process.
It does not take an explosion here, just getting each team to four runs means a win, and that is more than fair value to work with.
Rangers at Mariners
Pick: Over
A pair of Top 11 offenses in baseball clash in Safeco. Texas is on a 12-3-1 run over the total. Starter A.J. Griffin (4.41 ERA) has a 4.61 ERA on the road walking 24 batters in 54+ innings. Seattle is home on a 6-1 run over the total, including 7-1 over against the American League West. Starter Ariel Miranda (5.76 ERA) goes for Seattle, allowing more hits than innings pitched plus 54 base runners in 29+ innings. The Over is 7-3 in the Mariners last 10 home games, plus 5-2 over when they clash in Seattle.
San Fran @ COLORADO
Albert Suarez already had been tabbed the starter in what would have been Matt Cain?s rotation spot against the Cubs on Sept. 2 and Suarez more than held his own in allowing two earned runs on three hits in his five innings. Manager Bruce Bochy has stated his intent to make Suarez the fifth starter, which means that Cain?s next appearance out of the bullpen will be only his fourth in what would be his 312th career game. Including the outing vs. Chicago, Suarez has started eight games for the Giants in 2016, with a 1.12 WHIP, 7.1 K?s/9 and 3.0 BB?s/9 in 42 innings during those starts. Suarez?s overall skills compares favorably to Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija, making him a a decent, very under the radar target here.
Southpaw Jorge de la Rosa has a 10%/45% dominant start/disaster start split this season that is reflected in his uninspiring 5.09 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Dude has walked 55 batters in 120 innings for a troubling BB?s/9 rate of 4.0. de la Rosa will throw the occasional gem but his velocity drop and age assures us of some abbreviated starts too. There are more warning flags surrounding de La Rosa as well. His first-pitch strike rate over his past seven starts was a league low, 51%. His first-pitch strike rate in his last start was 44%. de la Rosa is 35-years-old and it is common to see him throw over 100 pitches to get through five innings. He's laboring through almost every inning he pitches. The increase in his ball % is a sure sign of fatigue. Do you really want to spot a tag at this park with a pitcher who is walking far too many hitters, iis constantly behind in the count and that is surrounded by traffic just about every frame? Play the value and take the Giants.
