WEEK 1 NFL INFO THREAD

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Super Trends



Week 1 of the pro football season kicks off Thursday, when Pittsburgh hosts Tennessee in the primetime opener. The NFL is known as the toughest sport to beat by most professional gamblers and some shy away from it all together. Handicapping with confidence and starting off the season strong can only help one build their bankroll.

With that being said, we?re going back to the well and talking about two trends that are directly related to the last game of the previous season, the Super Bowl, and the opening week of the upcoming campaign.



In case you forgot, the Steelers defeated the Cardinals 27-23 in Super Bowl XLIII from Tampa Bay. The victory for Pittsburgh gave the franchise a record sixth Super Bowl win. The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com believe Mike Tomlin?s crew has a good chance to repeat this year, tabbing the club as a 10/1 choice to win SBXLIV from Miami, Fl on Feb. 7, 2010.

Even though some teams play poorly as the hunted rather than the hunted, the Super Bowl champions haven?t fallen too quickly from the pedestal, especially in their Week 1 openers!

Nine years and counting, the defending Super Bowl champion has won in Week 1. Okay, that number might not impress you too much but did you know they own a 7-1-1 record against the spread during that span too?


Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2008)
Year SB Winner Opponent Result
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) Tennessee
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) Washington 16-7 (Cover)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) New Orleans 41-10 (Cover)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) Miami 30-20 (Cover)
2005 New England (-7.5) Oakland 30-20 (Cover)
2004 New England (-3) Indianapolis 27-24 (Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) Philadelphia 17-0 (Cover)
2002 New England (PK) Pittsburgh 30-14 (Cover)
2001 Baltimore (-10) Chicago 17-6 (Cover)
2000 St. Louis (-7) Denver 41-36 (Non-Cover)


The last defending champion to win and not cover was St. Louis in 2007. The Rams defeated the Broncos 41-36 but failed to cover as seven-point home favorites. Sticking with Denver, it fell to Miami 38-21 in Week 1 of the 1999 season, which was the last time the defending champs lost their opener after winning the Super Bowl in the previous year.

Pittsburgh can keep the trend rolling with a victory against Tennessee on Thursday.

Sticking with the Super Bowl theme, we would feel selfish not offering up another solid angle based on the big game. It?s been just as consistent as the above trend and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week, but for the entire season.

Ten straight seasons and counting, the loser of the previous Super Bowl is 2-8 straight up and 1-8-1 ATS in Week 1.




SUPER BOWL LOSER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (1999-2008)
Year Loser Opponent Line Result
2009 Arizona vs. San Francisco -6.5
2008 New England vs. Kansas City -16 Win 17-10
2007 Chicago at San Diego +6 Loss 3-14
2006 Seattle at Detroit -6 Win 9-6
2005 Philadelphia at Atlanta -1 Loss 10-14
2004 Carolina vs. Green Bay -3 Loss 14-24
2003 Oakland at Tennessee +3 Loss 20-25
2002 St. Louis at Denver -3 Loss 16-23
2001 N.Y. Giants vs. San Francisco +3 Loss 13-16
2000 Tennessee at Buffalo PK Loss 13-16
1999 Atlanta at Minnesota +4 Loss 14-17



Last year, New England defeated Kansas City 17-10 in Week 1 but failed to cover the 16-point number. The Patriots did lose quarterback Tom Brady for the year in the first quarter and his backup Matt Cassel played well in this game and for the season too.

Arizona faces the daunting task of busting the streak and its Week 1 matchup against San Francisco does look a tad tricky. The Cardinals have been listed as 6 ?-point home favorites, which is three points lower than the previous three meetings between the two from the desert.

In those games, San Francisco has gone 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS at Arizona. The two losses came by an average of six points, very close to the point-spread.

According to betEd.com Sportsbook Manager Randy Smith and his team, they expect Arizona to get late action this week. ?The Cardinals have received little action for their Week 1 match against the 49ers - but it's still very early to deter if the Cards will take on big action for that home game. That might have something to do with their preseason performance. We won't know for sure until later in the week, but we suspect that line will rise from 6.5,? said Smith.

The Week 1 trend of playing against the Super Bowl losers has carried on for entire seasons. In the table below, you can see that only two of the last 10 losers in the big game have made a return trip to the postseason the very next year.



SUPER BOWL LOSER - RECORD HISTORY (1999-2008)
Year Loser SU Record ATS Record Playoffs
2009 Arizona
2008 New England 11-5 9-7 No
2007 Chicago 7-9 7-9 No
2006 Seattle 10-8 8-10 Yes
2005 Philadelphia 6-10 5-11 No
2004 Carolina 7-9 10-6 No
2003 Oakland 4-12 3-10-1 No
2002 St. Louis 9-7 4-12 No
2001 N.Y. Giants 10-6 9-7 No
2000 Tennessee 13-3 6-10 Yes
1999 Atlanta 5-11 6-10 No



Even though the Pats missed the postseason in 2008, they did boast a winning record both SU and ATS.

What a lot of people forget about Arizona last year is that the club made the playoffs with a 9-7 record, some might even say they earned a trip because the NFC West was horrible. Either way, they did win three in a row in the playoffs, including a big win at Carolina.

Will the Cards rise again? We?ll find out soon enough, perhaps this Sunday.

 

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13 Futures to Watch

13 Futures to Watch

13 Futures to Watch
September 7, 2009



Somewhere, Pete Rozelle is looking down at the NFL monster he helped create, and probably nodding his head accordingly. Because, indeed, there is no parity in pro sports like the one Rozelle sought so hard to create in the NFL.

A look at recent playoff participants confirms as much. Over the 2004-2007 seasons, 48 teams entered the NFL playoffs. Of those 48 entries, only 19 of them were able to return to the postseason the following year. Although there have been a handful of semi-regulars making the playoffs, such as the Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Giants, and Chargers, the recent pattern is unmistakable...things can change rather quickly in the NFL. The 2008 campaign was merely the latest example, with the likes of the Dolphins, Falcons, Ravens, Titans, and Cardinals taking flight and making the playoffs after sub-.500 seasons in '07, while some stalwarts from the previous year, such as the Patriots, Packers, Cowboys, and Jaguars didn't even make the postseason tournament.

In fact, that pattern has become so pronounced that oddsmakers, realizing the wagering public was finally picking up on the trend, began to place selected "future" NFL season win-loss numbers more accordingly this year. Surprise teams from the previous season, such as the Dolphins, are getting less respect in such "future" numbers than they used to receive as the wagering public, sensitive to results from recent seasons, anticipates a regression. Prices can also swing wildly from when the "futures" numbers are first posted in the spring until the kickoff of regular season action, with some of the more pronounced changes occurring during the preseason.

We do not, however, necessarily subscribe to the notion that any "value" in the numbers and pricing has been eliminated by the time the regular season begins, nor do we put an inordinate value on the "strength of schedule" component that many use to help make decisions on the season won/loss wagers. After all, as our previously mentioned research indicates, results from recent seasons have hardly been staying consistent from one year to the next, so if there's any foolproof method to identify the best "futures" bets, it's still a secret. As for the "strength of schedule" factor, the only "SOS" component that means anything for 2009 is one that would reflect this season's records at the endof the upcoming campaign, not from 2008. And with 32 teams to choose from, there are plenty of "future" wagering opportunities right until the opening week kickoff. The widely varying "futures" prices available at different sports books also indicates that a bit of careful shopping by the buyer can still uncover some decent values on the board.

As always in "futures" wagering, the objective is to first select which teams you believe are going to win or lose more than the oddsmakers predict; do your price shopping afterwards. With that in mind, here are some of our best ideas for this season's NFL "futures" wagers, with season win/loss numbers provided by SPORTSBETTING.com.

Atlanta Falcons ("Under" 8 1/2)...Granted, adding TE Tony Gonzalez appears to provide the Atlanta offense with the one piece it was missing in '08. And we're big fans of QB "Matty Ice" Ryan. But the Falcons played in some good luck last season, with few key injuries and six wins by a TD or less. The defense, ravaged by free agent losses, has looked spotty in preseason. Let's also point out that Atlanta has never put back-to-back winning seasons together in its 43-year history. Much better prices can be found on the "under" at 81/2 wins rather than 9, so shop accordingly.

Carolina Panthers (Under 8 1/2)...No NFC South team has repeated as division winner since the league realigned in 2002 (for what it's worth, we're bullish on the Saints emerging this season). And we doubt the Panthers break that pattern, especially with QB Jake Delhomme, not long removed from Tommy John surgery, apparently on the downside of his career (as the Arizona playoff fiasco would indicate), and DE Julius Peppers not the happiest camper after an uncomfortable offseason that concluded with him getting slapped with the unpopular "franchise player" tag. Cap limitations and the lack of a first-round pick also slowed the flow of reinforcements in Charlotte. We haven't seen a prohibitive price on the 81/2 "under" in the marketplace, either, so we're "bearish" on the Panthers.


Cincinnati Bengals (Under 6 1/2)...The Bengals are a pick du jour by many to emerge in the AFC North, but we're not so sure. Counting on QB Carson Palmer to make it through the season unscathed is a big risk (he's already hurt his ankle in preseason), and we've seen what's happened to the team in his absence in recent years. A rebuilt OL is of further concern, and top draft pick Andre Lewis' broken foot his first day of camp after a long holdout confirms the fact that these are still...the Bengals. Let's also not forget the very real possibility of more off-field distractions; Chad Ochocinco is also still in the fold. We're seeing some very tasty prices on the 61/2 "under" and even some acceptable ones in the even-money range on the 7 "under" as well.

Cleveland Browns (Over 6 1/2)...We're well aware how bad the Browns looked down the stretch last season, when the offense couldn't score a TD after Thanksgiving and HC Romeo Crennel paid with his job. Remember, however, that Cleveland was showing some signs of life as late as mid-November when Brady Quinn took over at QB, although once he and Derek Anderson were KO'd, the season went downhill fast. New HC Eric Mangini has his detractors, but he pushed the right buttons in his first season with the Jets in '06, has something of a luxury with essentially two number one QBs (Quinn & Anderson) on the roster, and imported several of his former Jets to help on the defensive end. We don't think it's necessary to look for those fat "over" prices at 7 wins, as some acceptable prices are still available at shops posting the 61/2.

Denver Broncos (Over 6 1/2)...No, we're hardly charter members of the Josh McDaniels fan club, and suspect he and the Broncos will eventually rue getting rid of QB Jay Cutler. A summer of further Bronco bashing (including the ongoing Brandon Marshall soap opera) has resulted in some improved Denver "over" prices, and upon closer inspection, the McDaniels offense did begin to function a bit better with Kyle Orton (until his finger injury August 30 vs. the Bears; he'll likely be ready for the Cincy opener) as the preseason progressed. If rookie RB Knowshon Moreno can recover from his own preseason ding, the offense shouldn't be helpless, and new d.c. Mike Nolan ought to improve a Bronco stop unit now re-aligned in a 3-4. Plus, let's not forget that there might be two worse teams in the AFC West (Oakland & K.C.), which could help pad the Bronco win total. We're seeing some prices in the +160 range on the "over" 61/2, which look too good to pass up.

Detroit Lions ("Over" 4 1/2)...Before locking us up, we'll admit this isn't our top recommendation, especially since we believe the Lions will be fortunate to win a game in the rough NFC North. But the team will be better coached under Jim Schwartz than it was under Rod Marinelli, Daunte Culpepper is a nice stop-gap if Matthew Stafford isn't ready at QB, and Schwartz (successful at Titans' d.c.) has apparently made some not-so-insignificant upgrades to the stop unit. We'd probably back off if you all you can find is an "over 5," but we've seen this bounce back scenario often enough (remember Miami LY?) to take our chances at "over" on 41/2.

Indianapolis Colts ("Under" 10)...When is a 12-4 mark deceptive? Perhaps when a team has to win its last nine games to get there, as the Colts did with some mirrors last season. Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning, but he is entering his 12th season, and we're not sure the support case is as strong as it has been. Also, we have a feeling Tony Dungy will be missed on the sidelines; Jim Caldwell is inheriting a team in decline, not on the ascent. Some nice "+" prices on the 10 "under" are widely available.

Miami Dolphins ("Over" 7)...We've seen the "over" prices get a bit steep, but not yet prohibitive, on Miami, so we still believe the Dolphins are a "go" for 2009. Admittedly Miami appears a prime candidate to become the latest surprise team to regress the following season, but the defense is solid, and if he stays healthy, QB Chad Pennington (a great preseaon pickup last summer) provides the sort of cool leadership that HC Tony Sparano covets. The Dolphins don't have to win another 11 games or return to the postseason to clear this modest win total, and we suspect there are some wins to be had vs. the Bills and Jets in the AFC East.

New Orleans Saints ("Over" 9)...Prices are getting a little rich for the Saints after their impressive preseason, but don't let that dissuade you at this manageable win total; it wouldn;t surprise us if New Orleans winds up as the NFC Super Bowl rep. The upgrades on the defense could be significant with respected d.c. Gregg Williams now in the fold, and Drew Brees and the rest of the offense are ready to roll once more. Keep in kind that the Saints lost six games by a combined total of 18 points last season, and a mere change in luck could add a few wins to last year's 8-8 record.

New York Giants ("Under 10")...Although the G-Men have been playoff regulars the past few years, we wonder if that was a glimpse into the future that we saw down the stretch last December, when the Giants didn't seem the same team after Plaxico Burress' suspension. No one appears ready to step into that gap created by Plaxico's departure, and the OL has endured an injury-marred preseason. As for Eli Manning, he won't be playing for a contract upgrade after being rewarded with the priciest deal in league history. Tom Coughlin might also miss shrewd d.c. Steve Spagnuolo, now the Rams' HC. Shop around for a good price, as we've seen some wild fluctuations on the "10 under" number.

New York Jets ("Under" 7)...Just because the Falcons (with Matt Ryan) and Ravens (with Joe Flacco) made it to the playoffs with rookie QBs doesn't mean the Jets are going to do the same with Mark Sanchez, who has a more worried look on his face than he did during his all-smiles days at USC. The Jets lose little if they have to go with Kellen Clemens at QB, but it's the questions at that key position that have us doubting the Jets. Maybe new HC Rex Ryan can push the right buttons, but we're not convinced, and some appealing "under" prices can be found.

Oakland Raiders ("Under" 5 1/2)...It didn't take long for the Raiders to look like, well, the Raiders in preseason. HC Tom Cable accused of attacking assistant Randy Hanson. First-round WR Darius Heyward-Bey not catching the ball. QB JaMarcus Russell remaining erratic. Rush defense still not stopping anyone. Even the weak AFC West might not provide enough wins to help the Raiders clear that 51/2 number. How soon before Al Davis is looking for yet another coach? Fair prices on the "under" are still available.

Washington Redskins ("Under" 8)...We suspect the collapse at the end of last season, when the Skins fell from 6-2 to 8-8 in the last half of the year, might be indicative of what's to come in '08. QB Jason Campbell was hardly given a vote of confidence by management in the offseason, and we're not sure Dan Snyder's latest big-money FA addition, DT Albert Haynesworth, was the best use of all that loot with other spots crying out for upgrades along the roster. The Bill Cowher rumors will start in D.C. as soon as it looks like Jim Zorn won't be leading the team to the postseason. We're having a hard time envisioning the Skins clearing .500 in the rugged NFC East.

 

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Home Sweet Home
September 7, 2009

Top Ten Home Field Edges in the NFL

It's an unwritten rule in NFL handicapping that the home field is worth three points to the hosting club. But astute football bettors want more than just a rule of thumb.

We did a little digging and came up with a power poll of the home advantages for every team in the league. We've attached a number to be used any time the team involved is playing in its own stadium.

We'll reveal the worst home-field edges next week. Let's take a peek at which clubs received the biggest leg up playing in front of their home crowd.

Seattle Seahawks (4.5): Qwest Field claims keeps a sign up which reads ?12th man? for the contributions the vocal home fans make for the Seahawks. Seattle is 35-13 straight up over the last six seasons at the uniquely loud field. The team was terrible last season, but don?t forget it went 6-2 against the spread at home in two of the previous three seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4.5): The Steelers are 47-16-1 in their last eight seasons at Heinz Field and they?ve only been a home ?dog five times in their last nine seasons (they?ve covered four of those games). The ATS data isn?t as strong, but I think that has more to do with oddsmakers increasing the club?s home lines. The Yellow and Black get well-earned respect from the books and bettors at the Ketchup Bottle.



Baltimore Ravens (4.0): The Ravens make their home edge count. As a home dog they?ve only been about a 50-50 proposition this decade but as a home fave they?re own a 36-16-2 ATS mark. They draw well at M&T Bank Stadium and they?ve won at least six home games in all but two of the last nine seasons.

San Diego Chargers (4.0): Here?s another team that benefits from being out West. Teams to the Left Coast rarely come up with their best performance. The Bolts are 26-13-1 ATS over the last five seasons in at home games. Last season was a bit of an aberration because of injuries, but prior to 2008, San Diego had won at least seven of its eight home games straight up in three of the four campaigns.

Minnesota Vikings (4.0): A new stadium is on the way but the Vikes may end up missing the dome. The Purple People Eaters are 47-25 straight-up there in this decade. Minny holds just a 50 percent ATS record this decade in friendly confines, a sign that oddsmakers are on top of the added edge the team holds at the Metrodome.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.0): The Bucs are a much stronger home team than road team. They?ve gone at least 6-2 in three of the last four seasons at Raymond James Stadium. They?re also 7-3-1 ATS the last 11 times they?ve been a home ?dog. Tampa Bay is averaging 2.4 more home wins than road wins over the last five seasons.

New England Patriots (4.0): The Pats have gone undefeated on their home field in three of the last six seasons. Their glory years of covering the spread in home games were 2003 and 2004. Since then, they?ve been mediocre at home from an ATS standpoint. Still, their 39-9 straight-up mark at home over the last six seasons shows how well they play in Gillette Stadium.

Arizona Cardinals (3.5): The Cards play their home games at University of Phoenix Stadium which opened in August of 2006. The first season it wasn?t a big edge but Arizona was a 5-11 team at the time. The true value has been demonstrated over the last two years. The club is 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS over that period in the desert.

New York Giants (3.5): Unlike the Jets, the Giants seem to know how to get the most out of Giants Stadium. They are 19-13 ATS there the last four seasons and in two of those seasons they lost just once game straight-up. The Giants handle the elements much better than their opponents when the winds are swirling at the Meadowlands. Kicking can be especially troublesome for clubs that don?t have much experience in the conditions.

Houston Texans (3.5): Ask almost any opponent and they?ll tell you, the Texans are much tougher to face at Reliant Stadium than when you get them in your own house. Houston has gone 6-2 straight up at Reliant Stadium each of the last two seasons while going just 2-6 on the road. The Texans are also 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.

 

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What To Look For - Week 1

What To Look For - Week 1

What To Look For - Week 1

The best time of the sports year kicks off this week as we begin the NFL season. From preseason play and recent history we can get a good idea about some of the strengths and weaknesses of several teams.
If you like to play totals keep in mind that the Minnesota Vikings were 3-1 under the total in preseason. Sure, all the talk has been on Brett Favre and what he potentially can give them -- a star QB they have not had since Fran Tarkenton retired. But remember, Favre joins a run-first offense, one with a great offensive line and a pair of terrific RBs in Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.

And don?t overlook this defense, one that was No. 1 in the NFL last season at stopping the run. Their game plan under Brad Childress is usually to get a lead and then play it safe. They carry a 4-1 run under the total into the new season.



Miami is another team that likes to play tough defense and a ball control offense under Coach Tony Sparano. The defense was No. 15 in the NFL last season, 10th against the run, and DE Jason Taylor returns after a one-year hiatus in Washington. The Dolphins are 11-6 under the total under Sparano.

The defending champion Steelers also prefer to play that style under Mike Tomlin, starting 2-1 under the total last September. And that was without a healthy backfield. For 2009, the Steelers have both RBs Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall healthy, which can only help their ball control attack.

The Steelers open the season Thursday night against Tennessee. So when was the last time the Steelers lost a game that counted? Pitt lost to the Titans last December 21st. In that game, Tomlin's men were smacked around, 31-14, turning it over four times. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 329 yards, 2 TDs and 2 picks in trying to rally the Steelers, while the Titans had 117 rush yards against the great Pittsburgh defense, No. 1 in the NFL. Veteran QB Kerry Collins remained undefeated in his career against the Steelers, improving to 3-0, as he completed 20 of 29 passes for 216 yards and a touchdown. Of course, none of that matters this week as it's a new season.

The Patriots might be a team to look at should you want to play a game 'over' the total in September. The offense gets back QB Tom Brady and there is wide receiver talent everywhere. But the defense is a question mark. The secondary was weak last year and has new looks all over. They struggled often in preseason, as well. Tedy Bruschi retired, plus they just traded longtime star and five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour to the Raiders in a surprise move. Seymour, just 29, led the team with eight sacks last season. Since Seymour joined the Patriots (2001), the team has allowed an average of 17.8 points per game, which ranks third in the NFL over that span.

The Eagles and Panthers hook up in Week 1 Sunday, two teams that are far better than they looked in preseason. Forget about Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick -- Donovan McNabb is the quarterback of the Eagles, and he should be. Their passing offense will be interesting to watch in September as they added speedy WR DeSean Jackson last year and rookie WR Jeremy Maclin this season.

The Broncos are a team to look at ? and maybe shield your eyes. They look thin everywhere for new coach Josh McDaniels. And who is the starting quarterback? QB Kyle Orton dislocated his finger and Chris Simms has a sprained ankle, so all that is left is rookie QB Tom Brandstater. McDaniels said there is a possibility that Orton and Simms could miss the first regular season game. Why again did they run Mike Shanahan out of town? Denver football fans will be asking that in December, if not sooner.

The N.Y. Jets might be the biggest question mark of all. They have a new coach in Rex Ryan -- an outspoken guy who ran the Baltimore defense the last few years -- plus rookie QB Mark Sanchez. He looked decent in preseason, but those games don't count. I can only think of the words of his college coach, Pete Carroll, who felt Sanchez should stay at USC another year because he wasn?t ready for the pros. Carroll said, "The facts are so strong against this decision....he should've stayed for another year." Maybe Carroll will be proved right, but after watching Oklahoma's QB Sam Bradford get injured yesterday, it's rarely a bad decision to take that much money when it's on the table.

We do know that NY offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's game planning will depend on Sanchez's ability to handle the mental aspect of his job. If he plays well, they will open the offense up. If the kid struggles, you will likely see more emphasis on running the football. Stay tuned. The best time of the sports calendar heats up this week!

 

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NFL opening line report: Week 1

NFL opening line report: Week 1

NFL opening line report: Week 1

Sports bettors never cease to be impressed by the accuracy of NFL pointspreads.

Those who make the numbers, such as Las Vegas icon Jimmy Vaccaro, don?t understand what all the fuss is about.

Although spreads for Week 1 in the NFL have been on the board for several months, Vaccaro said there has been little cause to warrant a significant adjustment on any particular game.

?For guys who make numbers, this is not rocket science,? said Vaccaro, director of sports operations at Lucky?s Race and Sports Book. ?The numbers they come up with are very solid to begin with. From where we started to where we are now, nothing major has changed.?

Perhaps the biggest surprise thus far is an unlikely contrast between where the action has come from and where it hasn?t. Vaccaro said early NFL line movement was prompted by a couple of unlikely sources.

The Cincinnati Bengals have moved from -2 to -3.5 for their opening day home game against the Denver Broncos. It is a surprising change, Vaccaro noted, for a game involving two teams he expects to struggle.

?For a lot of reasons, it looks like the Broncos are in for a down season,? said Vaccaro, noting the trade of quarterback Jay Cutler and inexperience of first-year coach Josh McDaniels. ?The Bengals are looking to bounce back, but you?re betting on Carson Palmer, who?s barely played one down in the exhibition season, and hasn?t played at all in nearly a year.?

Another move that caught Vaccaro?s attention was a steam on the Dallas Cowboys that moved the line from -3 to -4.5 when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

?Now, I think the Cowboys are a 9-7 team,? Vaccaro said. ?But we took a (big) bet on them, so we have to adjust to reflect that.?

By contrast, Minnesota?s signing of quarterback Brett Favre did little to change the oddsmaker?s view of the Vikings? Week 1 visit to the Cleveland Browns. Although the opening number has moved from Minnesota -2.5 to ? 3.5, most of the Vikings money already was in the register before No. 4 pulled on a purple jersey.

?The Vikings got a little attention after the Favre thing,? Vaccaro said. ?However, we didn?t want to screw with that number too much.?

Philadelphia?s high-profile signing of troubled quarterback Michael Vick hasn?t had much influence on the Eagles? Week 1 trip to face the Carolina Panthers. The game opened as a pick?em and has seen plenty of two-way action, Vaccaro said. The Panthers are now at -1 in his sports book.

Another line oddsmakers are wary of moving is the NFL?s season-opener between the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers and the visiting Tennessee Titans, who had the league?s best regular-season record last year at 13-3. The Steelers opened as a 5-point favorite and currently sit at -5.5.

?We knew from the start that we couldn?t make the Steelers any higher than -6,? Vaccaro said. ?Anything else would provide a bargain on the Titans, and there would be some smart guys waiting to jump on it.?

Week 1 concludes with a pair of prime-time games that already have seen some substantial action, and Vaccaro anticipates strong sentiment for the favorite in both. The New England Patriots, bolstered by the return of Tom Brady at quarterback, have moved from -10 to -10.5 over the visiting Buffalo Bills and the San Diego Chargers, who opened as a 7-point chalk, have moved to a 9-point favorite over the host Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football.

In each case, the movement has as much to do with the futility of the underdog as the strength of the chalk, Vaccaro said. The Bills have fired their offensive coordinator after their no-huddle offense morphed into a no-offense huddle, and there are rumors that coach Dick Jauron?s job is in imminent jeopardy. The Raiders, outscored 76-28 in their past two exhibition games, have looked as though they believe the preseason is one long non-contact drill.

?You?ll see money on the Patriots until they prove everyone wrong,? Vaccaro said. ?Brady looks OK; Terrell Owens hasn?t played, and Trent Edwards has looked horrendous. It?s possible the line could close at 11.5 or 12.

?The Raiders really have been dismal, and the Chargers might be healthier than they have been in a long time. The line is at 9 now, but might close at 10 or higher. We?re still waiting to take a bet on them.?

Vaccaro hasn?t had to wait to see plenty of public sentiment against woeful clubs such as the Raiders and the Detroit Lions, who went winless last season. The Lions, who have named top draft pick Matthew Stafford as their opening-day quarterback, opened as 11-point underdogs to the New Orleans Saints. The line has moved to New Orleans -13, and the oddsmaker said he wouldn?t be surprised to see it close at -14.

?People always like to bet against teams that finished bad last year and hope that it will carry over,? Vaccaro said. ?You always know bettors will show a predominance of the left side of the parlay card (where favorites are listed) against bad teams.?

Rounding out the Week 1 NFL slate is a slew of games that haven?t received a significant amount of action on either side.

They include the Miami Dolphins against the Atlanta Falcons (opened: Falcons -4.5; current: -4); Baltimore Ravens against the Kansas City Chiefs (opened: Ravens -8.5; current: off because of injury to Matt Cassel); Houston Texans against the New York Jets (opened: Texans -4; current: Texans -4.5); Jacksonville Jaguars against the Indianapolis Colts (opened: Colts -7; current: Colts -7); Arizona Cardinals against the San Francisco 49ers (opened: Cardinals -6.5; current: Cardinals -6.5); New York Giants against the Washington Redskins (opened: Giants -6; current: Giants -6.5); Seattle Seahawks against the St. Louis Rams (opened: Seahawks -7; current: Seahawks -7.5); Green Bay Packers against the Chicago Bears (opened: Packers -3; current: Packers -3.5).

 

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NFC betting tidbits

NFC betting tidbits

NFC betting tidbits

San Francisco Bay Blues

Dre Bly is penciled in as the starting cornerback opposite Nate Clements, with Walt Harris out for the season. Don?t forget Bly was a big part of the Broncos late season collapse last December; a weak link in the secondary.

Barry Sims is now the projected starting right tackle, another area of weakness. This offense isn't very sexy - a dink and dunk short passing game with mediocre receivers and one of the weaker starting quarterbacks in the league will do that.

Bucs man sinking ship

It?s hard to be impressed with Byron Leftwich. He's holding the ball way too long, the cause of his problems throughout his career, and he's throwing the ball too high and hard. He missed open receivers, while delivering almost as many crisp throws that were right on the money. That?s too inconsistent for my betting blood.

Watch for early season special teams miscues - based on this performance, new head coach Raheem Morris hasn't put a ton of emphasis on special teams just yet.

Born to run

The Arizona defense was tremendous, picking up right where it left off in the playoffs thanks to a fierce pass rush. We definitely saw more of a push up front from the running game here. Tim Hightower was far more productive than he was at any point last year and Beanie Wells looks like another true running back stud. Expect this offense to be far more two dimensional in ?09.

Falcons to soar over total lines this season

Atlanta has a very young secondary and it showed. On one drive, the Falcons allowed four separate third down conversions of a dozen yards or longer, including a touchdown pass on third and 24.

The secondary got torched repeatedly, despite being in excellent down-and-distance situations.

Atlanta has all the makings of a real over bet team this year. The club owes a potent offense and a suspect defense. Very impressed with the skill position talent here - they are loaded with playmakers. We're not going to see a sophomore slump from Matt Ryan.

Giant void in New York

The red zone offense has been a problem throughout the preseason, just as it was a problem down the stretch for the G-Men last year. Will these young receivers step up? As a group, they did fine catching little slants, but Steve Smith dropped a potential 90 yard touchdown catch on the Giants first shot downfield. Manning's interception came on a perfectly thrown ball that Domenick Hixon couldn't reel in. The departed WR duo of Burress and Toomer had 263 career starts. Entering ?09, the Giants have 19 career starts returning from the entire receiving corps.

Toothless Lions

This defense looks awful, particularly against the pass. Just like last week (and last year), there are wide open receivers downfield on nearly every passing play. And, just like last year, Detroit was down by a couple of touchdowns by the end of the first quarter.

Matthew Stafford threw a pick on his first pass attempt against a first-string defense and almost threw another pick on his second pass attempt. RB Kevin Smith was hit repeatedly in the backfield and was unable to find room to run. Don?t be fooled by any preseason final scores ? with the starters on the field, the Lions looked like the worst team in the league.

Same old Saints

The No. 1 ranked offense last year scored three touchdowns on three drives with the starters on the field. But the starting defense looks much like last year's - soft, with lots of missed tackles. They were particularly vulnerable stopping the run right up the gut, between the tackles. The cornerbacks looked a bit better, with a healthy Tracy Porter back in the lineup and Darren Sharper can still defend the pass as well as most safeties in the league.

Drowning birds

The Seahawks offensive line isn't opening up any holes for the running game at all, bad news for new coordinator Greg Knapp's ball control offense. They miss O-linemen Walter Jones and Chris Spencer. Mike Wahle retired before training camp, meaning that we?re looking at three new OL starters to open the season.

I'm not impressed with the defensive line either. The unit allowed chunks of yardage on the ground against a team with a limited downfield passing game.

Will kicking be a problem here? Three FG attempts missed between Olindo Mare and Brandon Coutu.

 

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NFL Top 5: Biggest questions heading into the season

NFL Top 5: Biggest questions heading into the season

NFL Top 5: Biggest questions heading into the season
With the NFL season just a few days from kicking off, several teams head to the playing field shrouded by question marks that might define their seasons.

Sports bettors and oddsmakers alike are just as curious as the clubs to find out the answers.

Although the pre-season provided no shortage of story lines, the regular season is where the final chapters will be written.

Here is a rundown of the Top 5 biggest questions to be answered in the upcoming NFL season:

Will Tom Brady return to his pre-injury form?

Brady?s health and effectiveness is going to be the biggest factor in determining the fate of the New England Patriots, the balance of power in the AFC and the result for future bettors who are backing the chalk (+400 at most sports books) to win the Super Bowl.

At 32, Brady is nearing the twilight of his physical prime. Although he hasn?t taken the beating that many quarterbacks endure over their careers, the severe knee injury he suffered in Week1 last year (a torn anterior cruciate ligament and medial collateral ligament) has spelled the beginning of the end for many NFL players.

Carson Palmer of the Cincinnati Bengals hasn?t been the same since suffering a similar injury. Although Brady never has been known for his mobility, he always has been just agile enough to stay out of harm?s way. If he can no longer do so, his career and the Patriots are in trouble.

Will Brett Favre be the difference-maker for the Minnesota Vikings?

There?s little doubt that Favre is the best option at quarterback on the Vikings? roster. Whether his on-field play can offset the damage done during the process to sign him remains to be seen. Several Vikings players reportedly were turned off by Favre?s infamous waffling regarding his return, and they resented his absence during training camp.

Coach Brad Childress seems to have lost credibility by misleading his team regarding the franchise?s pursuit of Favre. If the coach and quarterback fail to receive the full support of the locker room, the Vikings could take a step backward.

Several oddsmakers have told Covers.com that Favre is worth a half-point to one point at most for the Vikings on the point spread. One oddsmaker who is a successful former handicapper said he believes Favre doesn?t help them at all.

Will the Michael Vick experiment work for the Philadelphia Eagles?

The Philadelphia Eagles appear to be an odd match for the return of the troubled quarterback. While the veteran coaching staff seems to be a good fit and the city seems to just judge Vick based primarily on his performance, you still have to wonder whether the signing is a good long-term fit.

In other words, the last time we checked, Philadelphia already had a mobile, athletic signal-caller behind center.

Controversy-magnet Donovan McNabb seems to have attracted another headline. Although many sources reported that McNabb endorsed the move, you have to wonder why he?d give himself another reason to look over his shoulder.

Will the Detroit Lions win a football game?

If you are a Lions fan, may Jim Schwartz with be with you. This moribund franchise, which collapsed at the feet of former general manager Matt Millen, can?t possibly do worse than last year?s historic 0-16 mark. The new regime is counting on its new coach, Schwartz, and an overhauled roster to change the team?s fortunes.

The season win total for the Lions is 4.5 at most sports books. The over seems a lofty goal at this point. No. 1 draft pick Matthew Stafford appears too inexperienced and erratic to be tossed into the starting lineup. The alternative is injury-prone journeyman Daunte Culpepper, who appears to have his best years behind him. If the Lions grab the money for over bettors, Schwartz deserves an extension.

Will Raiders coach Tom Cable have a job by the end of October?

If you were setting odds for the first NFL coach to earn a pink slip this season, Cable would have to be the odds-on favorite. This might be the only bet you?ll find this year in which the Raiders are a prohibitive chalk.

Forget for a moment that Cable allegedly clocked an assistant coach and might be facing legal charges as a result. If nothing else, the incident might have earned him a little more street cred with owner Al Davis.

The Swiss-cheese defense and lopsided losses will cost Cable his job. The Raiders defense has done its best to impersonate an 11-man crew of friendly ghosts disguised in silver and black and third-year quarterback JaMarcus Russell has failed to emerge as the franchise player the club coveted when they drafted him No. 1 overall.

Davis was hesitant to give Cable the permanent coaching job ? it?s unlikely he?ll have any such apprehensions about taking it away.

 

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NFL Season Win Totals and SOS Variables
By SPORTSBETTING.COM | September 4, 2009 | 0 comments
When the NFL regular season schedule is released in the spring it sets off a chain reaction in the sports betting world, as online sportsbooks went to work on their Future Odds menu as numbers were calculated on everything from odds to win the division to Week 1 totals and every prop bet in-between.

The odds change throughout the summer based on betting activity and one of the most popular futures bets, ?Team Win Totals?, often have a much different look by the first kickoff in Week 1.

Strength of schedule (SOS) is one thing that doesn?t change during the summer and it?s interesting to look at some of the variances between how the bookmakers are currently ranking the teams and how the SOS rates them.

SOS is a simple formula that takes every team?s record from the previous season and puts that into the upcoming season?s schedule. Record are added up, wins and losses, and the team this year that faces the list of opponents with the best combined record from last year gets rated No. 1 for SOS.

For bettors looking for value plays on Team Win Totals, comparing SOS to Season Win Totals is an excellent place to start.

The most common projected range is from 7.5-8.5 wins. The reason, of course, is that NFL teams play 16 games during the regular season. After making the playoffs, the next biggest goal is finishing the season above .500 (eight wins). For a lot of teams, hitting .500 is a much more realistic goal than actually making the post-season and this year there are 16 teams listed in that slim one-game range of wins.

The 7.5?s: Of the five teams listed by online sportsbooks to finish the season just under the .500 cusp, the one whose SOS stands out the most is Miami (1st). The Dolphins shocked everyone in 2008, introducing the Wildcat offense and improving their win total from 2007 by 10 wins. There are very few that feel Miami will reach such lofty goals in back-to-back seasons; drawing the toughest schedule in the league doesn?t help their cause.

The 8.5?s: By far the biggest grouping of all, there are 11 teams with an 8.5 win total this year. Four were aided by a soft schedule, especially Chicago. The Bears get the pleasure facing the Detroit Lions twice this season and it translated into a SOS ranking of 32nd.

Speaking of the Lions, Detroit is 21st in SOS yet still managed to hold onto the lowest projected win total in the league (4.5). Going winless for a full season is something that bookies ? and football bettors ? don?t seem to forget about too easily.

Finally, there were four teams with posted win totals in the double-digits this year and the two that stand out the most are Pittsburgh and New England. The Pats have the third toughest SOS but the return of Tom Brady puts them back in Super Bowl contention. The Steelers, last year?s champs, show that even the NFL?s balanced scheduling format has holes in it. Thanks to a couple of weak division foes Pittsburgh has the 29th toughest schedule. Can anybody say repeat?

 

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Mangini keeping Browns starting QB a secret

Mangini keeping Browns starting QB a secret

Mangini keeping Browns starting QB a secret
September 7, 2009


BEREA, Ohio (AP) -Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson still don't know who won their competition. The Vikings are in the dark, too.



Cleveland's starting quarterback remains Eric Mangini's secret. And he'll keep it as long as he can.

Mangini has finally made his choice between Quinn and Anderson, but the Browns' first-year coach declined to identify who will start Sunday's season opener against Minnesota. On Monday, he said won't reveal who will open at QB anytime between now and kickoff.

``In terms of announcing it publicly, that's not something I plan to do,'' he said. ``It will be internal. I understand everybody has a different opinion on it. I respect that. I understand the excitement in relationship to that and I respect that as well. But that will be something that will be internal.''

Before practice, Mangini said he had not yet told the quarterbacks who won the job and that he plans to meet with them individually to discuss his decision.

Months of speculation will last at least a few more days.

Both Quinn and Anderson claimed ignorance about a topic that dominated Cleveland's training camp and exhibition season.

``I know as much as you guys know,'' Anderson said as he dressed at his locker stall.

Quinn didn't seem to be in any rush to find out.

``I'm not worried about it,'' he said. ``You guys are more worried about it than I am.''

It was not clear if Mangini talked to either of the players following his news conference and before practice. During the 30 minutes the workout was open to the media, both Quinn and Anderson went about their business without any visible signs of a winner - or loser - being declared.

As the players stretched out, Lady Gaga's hit single ``Poker Face'' blared through the outdoor speakers, an appropriate tune on another day when Mangini refused to tip his quarterbacking hand.

A former defensive coordinator, Mangini said he wants to keep the Vikings quessing.

``It is more difficult to plan for two (quarterbacks) than it is to plan for one,'' he said. ``I'm not saying that's going to be the difference or not the difference, but I know that there is time allotted to that and you can't put the same amount of time into focusing on one player.''

Vikings coach Brad Childress was asked if the uncertainty of Cleveland's quarterback would affect Minnesota's defensive game plan.

``It doesn't,'' he said. ``Just schematically, you're going to go back and look at tape and see what you've seen. And then I know, as do our guys, that there will be unscouted looks. They certainly haven't showed their whole hand, offensively and defensively. So you're just going back and looking at formation-wise where they're putting people and what kind of players they are. It will be more about us deploying to what they do.''

Childress' starter at quarterback was resolved when the club signed Brett Favre. He said he'll wait until Sunday before choosing Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels as his backup.

``But at least you know who the starter is here,'' he said, playfully jabbing Mangini.

Quinn and Anderson have been competing almost since the moment Mangini was hired as Cleveland's coach in January. He had no track record with either player and wanted to evaluate them through minicamps, training camp and four exhibition games before making his decision.

Surprisingly, he sat Quinn and Anderson in last week's preseason finale in Chicago. The pair finished in a virtual statistical stalemate, with Quinn throwing the lone touchdown pass and Anderson tossing two interceptions.

Mangini felt both QBs improved during their battle and said he plans to keep Quinn and Anderson on the roster.

``I have been happy with the progress that both guys made,'' he said. ``I'm happy with the way they've worked. I'm happy with the way they approached this competition, and it's not always easy to approach a competition in a team fashion, and I respect the way they've handled it.''

Wide receiver Joshua Cribbs said he's looking forward to Mangini's secret being revealed.

``Both of them are great quarterbacks,'' he said. ``You can look at through our preseason and see the success that both of them had. There's a lot of room for both of them to get better. Yeah, I'm interested and whoever the coach chooses we're behind him 100 percent.''

Quinn and Anderson are expected to speak with reporters on Wednesday, when they'll face a barrage of questions. As much as he'd like to control everything, Mangini understands there's only so much he can do.

``I know how we're going to approach it and I know that the team should be focused on Minnesota,'' he said, ``and should be focused on doing everything that we can do to maintain any competitive advantages.''

 

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Big Boys step up in Week 1

Big Boys step up in Week 1

Big Boys step up in Week 1

Traditional Powers with Motivation

This past week in college football we saw something to keep an eye on in the future, as teams with strong traditions coming off a disappointing season had something to prove. And when playing at home against an inferior opponent they took out an offseason of frustrations.

Michigan was the first team on the list coming off a 3-9 season after winning 83 combined games the previous nine seasons. It's the second year of the Rich Rodriguez regime and he finally had a chance to recruit some players to fit into his type of scheme. The Wolverines took advantage of a plus two turnover margin and beat Western Michigan 31-7 easily covering the 14-point spread. Extra motivation for the host with all the controversy surrounding the program the past few weeks did nothing but unite the team.


Notre Dame was another squad who has had a great tradition that has been down the past two years. Coming off three and seven-win seasons, many in the media had suggested that the Irish would never again achieve greatness. In fact, Nevada (+14 ?) was a popular upset play as the game approached. But Notre Dame never faltered with an easy 35-0 victory over the Wolf Pack. The Irish averaged 8.4 yards per play and dominated time of possession keeping "The Pistol" in its holster.

Auburn had won 75 games the previous eight years before a 5-7 season in 2008. The team brought in former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik to bring them back to prominence. While his hiring was questioned all around the country based on his lack of success at Iowa State, the Tigers took no prisoners in opening the season hosting Louisiana Tech. Auburn won 37-13 easily besting the 12-point tariff while holding the Bulldogs to only 3.5 yards per play.

Tennessee rounded out our motivated foursome with an easy 63-7 victory over Western Kentucky. The Vols under new head coach Lane Kiffin had all kinds of controversy in the offseason, but put it all aside to blow past the 31-point price against the Hilltoppers. Tennessee had won 80 games the past nine seasons before a 5-7 record last year cost Phil Fulmer his job.

Other teams with good histories coming off a bad season also had strong showings at home with something to prove. Purdue, Texas A&M and Washington also took home the money in the opening weekend.

Keep in mind what we learned last week when these types of plays present themselves in the future. Motivated teams playing at home with plenty of time to prepare are what we want to back, especially considering the talent level of recruits still being brought into the system.

 

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NFL BETTING: Handicappers side with Pats -Oddsmakers say NFC wide open

NFL BETTING: Handicappers side with Pats -Oddsmakers say NFC wide open

NFL BETTING: Handicappers side with Pats -Oddsmakers say NFC wide open

As the NFL regular season approaches, let's look at some big-picture opinions from the oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. It's probably not surprising to see the focus on the New England Patriots.

With the return of quarterback Tom Brady sealing the deal, the Patriots are on virtually everyone's short list to win the AFC and reach the Super Bowl.

But the picks for the NFC, where the list of contenders runs deep, are another story. So, without further delay, the guys who create the suggested opening lines take a look into the future:

? KEN WHITE: Watch for Philadelphia and San Diego.

"The Eagles look extremely solid, especially on defense. That's a unit that will be on a mission playing for Jim Johnson, their beloved defensive coordinator who passed away in July. The Donovan McNabb-Michael Vick combination will lead a strong offense with improving weapons at wide receiver.

"The Bears can surprise a lot of people now that they've upgraded with Jay Cutler at quarterback, the most important position on the field. Minnesota may be overrated by many. The perception is the Vikings upgraded with Brett Favre, but the reality is Green Bay and Chicago have better quarterbacks.

"In the AFC, it may finally be Philip Rivers and the Chargers' time to shine, playing in a very weak division."

? TONY SINISI: The Jets are an AFC sleeper.

"I like New England for all the obvious reasons. Bill Belichick is unparalleled as a head coach in the league. I trust he is the one guy who can piece together a suspect defensive group with new faces and suffer little drop-off in relation to earning victories.

"I love Rex Ryan's attitude, and think it's a perfect fit for New York. He's going to prove to be a great head coach, and the Jets have finally found the guy they've been waiting for.

"In the NFC, it's almost a field bet with the number of teams in with a fighting chance."

? DAN O'BRIEN: The Patriots are back.

"The Patriots are the pick in the AFC simply because I think their offense could be better than the record-setting team that took the field two years ago. Their running game will be better, and their depth at wide receiver is significant.

"In the NFC, I'd say the eventual winner in the East would get the nod. They might not end up with the best record but will be better prepared for the postseason."

? MIKE SEBA: It's the Chargers, Patriots and Giants.

"In addition to New England, which will be tough to beat if healthy, I'd strongly consider San Diego a threat to win it all. Residing in the weakest division in football, they all but have a pass to a first-round bye and an invitation to the AFC Championship Game.

"The Giants get my vote in the NFC, despite not having any star power at wide receiver. On the merits of the defensive unit alone, they have to be considered the favorite. New York's defense will be dominant."

Seba's sleeper in the AFC is the Houston Texans. "Maturity is the main component to success. It's a group that is growing up together. With everything seemingly in place, the time may be now for the Texans."

? SEAN VAN PATTEN: The Bears are rising, Colts falling.

"Philadelphia, to me, is the team to beat in the NFC East and the conference. The Giants' offense is going to struggle, and that could be their downfall. Chicago may take a big step forward with Cutler, who seems to be getting acclimated to his new surroundings.

"Pittsburgh and New England are the class of the AFC. I think the Colts are a team that may regress and not be the factor they have been."

And, finally, my opinions. Without reinventing the wheel, I'll go with New England in the AFC.

I had Minnesota penciled in as my NFC representative in the Super Bowl, but now with Favre at the helm, I'm not so sure. What a lovely story it would make if old No. 4 wins in a purple jersey. But let's try a different tale on for size.

The Packers and Aaron Rodgers are my pick to win it all. The defense is still young and aggressive, the wide receiving corps is stout, and running back Ryan Grant could have a huge year.

Give the Packers a pass for the hangover of losing a chance to play in the Super Bowl two years ago and the three-ring circus that Favre created last summer. It stands to reason Rodgers will be significantly better this year, so I'm all in with Green Bay.

 

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NFL Spread sheet: Betting roundup of each division

NFL Spread sheet: Betting roundup of each division

NFL Spread sheet: Betting roundup of each division
A quick tour of the league with the countdown clock bearing down toward Thursday?s opener:

AFC EAST ? Buffalo has less than a week to find a way to move the ball. Head coach Dick Jauron says he?s not looking back, and the team is committed to a no-huddle offense even though the offense?s architect, offensive coordinator Turk Schonert, was fired last week.

The official line goes like this: With Terrell Owens injured, the preseason didn?t provide a decent body of work to judge the offense. But reports out of Buffalo indicate that offensive players were concerned after the team scored zero touchdowns in games against Pittsburgh and Detroit.

Judging from blogs, the fan base which only a month ago was excited about the offense is now depressed. Bills are 10.5-points dogs at New England on Monday night.

AFC NORTH ? Minus pocket crusher Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee reportedly will blitz a lot more than it did last season. The Titans open at Pittsburgh Thursday (Steelers giving anywhere from 5.5 to 7), and for the second straight year the Steelers have concerns about their offensive line. Pittsburgh?s O-Line gave up 49 sacks last season, a major concern given the fact that Ben Roethlisberger looks like he?ll be starting the season less than 100 percent.

AFC SOUTH ? Indianapolis?s slow start opened the door for Tennessee to win the division last season, and now the Texans are hoping that the Colts or Titans will take a step back and clear the way for Houston to challenge for a wild card after back-to-back 8-8 seasons.

Predictions of 9-7 or 10-6 are in the air, but folks in the self-proclaimed energy capital of the world would be wise to recall the New Orleans Saints, another on-the rise team which finished 8-8 in 2004 and followed that up with 3-13 in ?05. Houston gives 4.5 to the Jets at home on Sunday.

AFC WEST ? Before Shawne Merriman?s latest brush with the law, there appeared to be nothing the Chargers could do to screw up the division. And there still might not be.

KC and Denver could be both in the bottom five of the entire league, and sharp objects are being taken away from Raider fans after the Richard Seymour deal. SD gives 9.5 to the Raiders in Oakland on Monday night.

Barring an injury to Philip Rivers, the Chargers should be near double-digit favorites in every division game this season.

NFC EAST ? Just a hunch here, but with Wade Philips?s job security at about 2 on a scale of 10, Dallas will stop letting Romo be Romo, become more of a run-oriented team and let its eighth-ranked (last season) defense do what it does best. Fourteen interceptions and 12 fumbles (seven lost) by your starting quarterback has a way of toning down the game plan a bit - especially with Marion Barber waiting for handoffs. Boys give anywhere from 4 to 6 in their opener at Tampa Bay.

NFC NORTH ? Fun game right off the bat in Green Bay. Love him or hate him, Jay Cutler got the job done when he went in to Denver and showed jeering Broncos fans what the team let get away.

The Bears may get worn down by their mediocre receiving corps, but Aaron Rodgers should put up huge numbers again for the Packers. Minnesota still has the division?s best defense. GB gives 3.5 to Chicago.

NFC SOUTH ? Opening lines gave Carolina 3 points at home against Philadelphia, but it didn?t take long for the public to bet that down to a single point, despite the Panthers? pee-poor 0-4 preseason. Still, there are storm clouds in Charlotte, where the starters who produced a 12-4 season and division title in 2008 have been sluggish and unproductive.

NFC WEST ? The Rams appear better, the Seahawks appear healthier and the 49ers have some decent talent. Duck hunting with Dick Cheney is safer than betting the Cardinals to run away and hide again in this division. Matt Hasselbeck has had so many injuries that it?s hard to see him playing 16 games, but if he can stay clear of hospitals, the Seahawks can make a run at Arizona. Seattle gives anywhere from 7 to 9.5 to the Rams in the opener.

Wake up, Al. You just got hosed again

The consensus seems to be that Al Davis got snookered ? again ? by the Patriots in the Richard Seymour deal. Oakland gets a five-time Pro Bowler who has three Super Bowl rings, but at 29 he?s teeing it up on the back nine.

Seymour has also played the equivalent of almost an entire season in 12 playoff games, and you have to wonder how motivated he?ll be in Oakland, even playing for a contract.

The Pats had to figure out a way to pay NT Vince Wilfork, and they also like three or four of their young defensive linemen. The Pats will probably take that 2011 No. 1 from Oakland and package it for lower-round picks, adding depth and keeping salaries low.

Combined with the trade of Mike Vrabel and the retirements of Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi, the deal helps make the Pats get younger on defense.

Can someone put the Gini back in the bottle?

The role of Herman Edwards will be played by Eric Mangini, at least this season. OK, after Romeo Crennel the Browns needed some discipline. But did they need this type of nonsense from Mangini, who is trying to out-Belichick Belichick in secrecy?

Everyone knows Brady Quinn will be the starting quarterback, and keeping that under wraps won?t do a thing to inflate the trade value of Derek Anderson.

Say what?

LenDale White ate himself out of a starting job last season and never saw rookie Chris Johnson charging at him in the rear view mirror. Johnson will still start for Tennessee, but White is in better shape as he eyes a new contract, and his mouth is in befuddling mid-season form.

White had this to say about Steeler fans who criticized him last year when he stomped on a Pittsburgh ?terrible towel? following the Titans 31-14 win in Nashville:

?I do whatever I want at your house or my house. Because I can buy the house I?m usually at. See what I?m saying??

Not really, but translators say that the comment was a threat to stomp on more towels when the Titans take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh Thursday night in the NFL opener.

 

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Kick off the NFL season at betED.com

Kick off the NFL season at betED.com

Kick off the NFL season at betED.com

The 2009 National Football League season kicks off Thursday with the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers opening their title defense against the Tennessee Titans at Heinz Field.

NFL Betting Odds at betED.com have the Steelers as 6-point favorites and the over/under at 35 for the NFL?s opening game (8:30 pm ET, NBC).

The Titans have dominated the Steelers straight up, going 7-3 SU over the past 10, but Pittsburgh has covered the spread in six of those games (6-4 ATS).

Over/under bettors at betED.com should note that eight of the past 10 tilts have gone over the total (8-2 OU).

In their last meeting on Dec. 21 last season, the Titans smoked the Steelers 31-14 as 3-point home underdogs.

Moving on to Sunday, NFC East rivals Washington Redskins and New York Giants clash at Giants Stadium (4:15 pm ET, FOX).

The Giants are 7-3 both SU and ATS against the Redskins over the past 10, including a 23-7 win in their last meeting on Nov. 30 last season. The Giants covered as 3.5-road favorites.

NBC?s Sunday Night Football features a classic NFL matchup as the Chicago Bears battle the Green Bay Packers in a clash of NFC North rivals at Lambeau Field (8:20 pm ET, NBC).

Da Bears are 7-3 SU and 5-4-1 ATS over the past 10 meetings.

The teams last met on Dec. 22 last season when Chicago won 20-17 but failed to cover the 4.5-point home spread. As with most matchups between the Bears and Packers, the score went under the total, which was set at 40 for last season?s game.

Bettors can look forward to a double-header Monday Night, with the first tilt featuring the Buffalo Bills at the New England Patriots (Monday, 7 pm ET, ESPN).

The Pats are a perfect 10-0 SU over the past 10 meetings, and 8-2 ATS.

 

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DUNKEL INDEX NFL WEEK 1 10 SEP THRU 14 SEP 09

DUNKEL INDEX NFL WEEK 1 10 SEP THRU 14 SEP 09

Today's NFL Picks

Tennessee at Pittsburgh

The defending champion Steelers open the regular season against Tennessee on September 10. The Steelers are the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5).

Here are all of Week One's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (8/17)
Game 451-452: Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 140.646; Pittsburgh 148.444
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 33
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 35
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5); Under

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (8/17)
Game 453-454: Miami at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.346; Atlanta 134.249
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 45
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 43
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Over

Game 455-456: Kansas City at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.024; Baltimore 134.133
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 9; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9); Under

Game 457-458: Philadelphia at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 141.749; Carolina 144.653
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 46
Vegas Line: Carolina by 1; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-1); Over

Game 459-460: Denver at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.598; Cincinnati 124.924
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3); Over

Game 461-462: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 136.080; Cleveland 128.895
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 7; 36 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Under

Game 463-464: NY Jets at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 128.730; Houston 138.240
Dunkel Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 4; 43
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under

Game 465-466: Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.039; Indianapolis 139.395
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6 1/2); Over

Game 467-468: Detroit at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.925; New Orleans 133.469
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 12 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+12 1/2); Under

Game 469-470: Dallas at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.674; Tampa Bay 128.129
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Under

Game 471-472: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 129.708; Arizona 139.069
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-6 1/2); Over

Game 473-474: Washington at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 130.475; NY Giants 140.912
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-6); Over

Game 475-476: St. Louis at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.293; Seattle 130.343
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 6; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7); Under

Game 477-478: Chicago at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.555; Green Bay 131.413
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Under

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (8/17)
Game 479-480: Buffalo at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.186; New England 141.431
Dunkel Line: New England by 15; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 10 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10 1/2); Over

Game 481-482: San Diego at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 135.454; Oakland 130.115
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+7); Over

 

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Titans at Steelers

Titans at Steelers

Titans at Steelers


The 2009 NFL season is set to commence Thursday night at Heinz Field where the Pittsburgh Steelers will begin their quest to repeat as Super Bowl champions against the Tennessee Titans.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Mike Tomlin?s team as a 5 ?-point favorite with a total of 37. As of early Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Steelers as six-point ?chalk? with the total adjusted to 35. The Titans are plus-220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

When we last saw the Steelers, they were knocking off Arizona at Super Bowl XLIII thanks to a last-minute touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes. For Big Ben, it was his second Super Bowl ring in four seasons. As he enters his sixth season as the starter in the Steel City, Roethlisberger is the toast of the town and his squad appears as formidable as ever.

Pittsburgh (15-4 straight up, 11-8 against the spread) returns all of its starters with the exception of two guys on defense, linebacker Larry Foote and cornerback Bryant McFadden. William Gay, a three-year veteran from out of Louisville, will assume McFadden?s duties at the corner opposite of Ike Taylor. Meanwhile, Lawrence Timmons is poised to take over the spot vacated by Foote.


Timmons, a No. 1 pick in 2007, was outstanding as the team?s nickel linebacker in ?08. The FSU product had 65 tackles, five sacks, one interception and one forced fumble. However, he missed Tuesday?s practice and is listed as ?questionable? with an ankle injury. Keyaron Fox will get the starting nod if Timmons can?t go.

Roethlisberger was outstanding in the playoffs, but he wasn?t himself at times during the regular season. Part of that can be attributed to injuries, but we should note his not-so-impressive 17/15 touchdown-interception ratio.

Truth be told, the ?08 Steelers were all about defense. The power running game never developed consistency, finishing 23rd in the NFL in rushing offense. Willie Parker was often dinged and Rashard Mendenhall went on IR early in the season after Ray Lewis broke his collarbone on a crushing hit.

Parker and Mendenhall will split the carries in ?09, while Mewelde Moore will see playing time as a third-down back.

Tennessee (13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS) went 13-3 in the 2008 regular season to garner homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. However, the Titans went "one and done" in the postseason, losing a heartbreaker to Baltimore by a 13-10 count when veteran tight end Alge Crumpler coughed up a fumble deep in the red zone late in the fourth quarter.

Jeff Fisher?s team won its first 10 games last year. Most importantly for our purposes, the Titans went 9-1 versus the number during that span. Kerry Collins took over at quarterback for Vince Young and rookie running back Chris Johnson exploded for a monster season.

Johnson rushed for 1,128 yards and nine touchdowns, offering his team a homerun threat to compliment LenDale White?s short-yardage prowess between the tackles. White rushed for 15 touchdowns in ?08 and hopes to be more productive this year after trimming down during the offseason.

?We couldn?t ask for a better matchup to start the year,? veteran handicapper said earlier this week. ?Both teams are coming off great seasons, although the Titans didn?t get it done in the playoffs. Tennessee likes to play power football and so do the Steelers. The interesting matchup will be Pittsburgh?s outstanding run defense versus the Titans? running game with Chris Johnson and LenDale White.?

Fisher made it clear that Collins, a 15-year veteran, would remain the starting QB by inking the Penn St. product to a two-year, $15 million deal. Collins has had an up-and-down career, leading Carolina to the NFC Championship Game early in that franchise?s history before battling alcoholism and nearly finding himself out of the league.

After a brief and unsuccessful stint in New Orleans, Collins got another shot with the Giants as the second-string QB. He eventually became the starter and guided the G-Men to the Super Bowl in 2000. But things went sour for Collins in Gotham and he was released after the 2003 campaign.

His career, at least as a starter, appeared to be over after the Raiders released Collins following two seasons in which they went 7-21 in his 28 starts. Collins spent two seasons backing up Young with the Titans before assuming the starting role early last year following Young?s meltdown.

Collins took full advantage, managing games without making costly mistakes and producing through the air when needed. In fact, he was invited to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl after throwing for 2,676 yards and 12 TDs. And we should be clear that Collins wasn?t exactly working with an ultra-talented array of wide receivers. In fact, TE Bo Scaife led the Titans with 58 receptions in ?08 and Johnson had the second-most grabs with 43.

That WR corps lost Brandon Jones to free agency after he led the wideouts with 41 catches. This group still has Justin Gage, who played better down the stretch after shaking off early-season injuries. Tennessee added former Steeler Nate Washington and also drafted Kenny Britt from out of Rutgers in the first round. Also, keep an eye on rookie TE Jared Cook, a third-round pick who was a big-time playmaker at South Carolina before falling out of favor with Steve Spurrier.

However, as of Wednesday, Washington (hamstring) and Cook (ankle) were both listed as ?questionable? for Thursday night.

Tennessee?s defense will be stout once again, but we can?t ignore the fact that Pro-Bowl DT Albert Haynesworth left for the Redskins via the free-agency route during the offseason. Nevertheless, this unit still has Pro-Bowlers like LB Keith Bulluck, CB Cortland Finnegan and safety Michael Griffin.

Pittsburgh led the NFL both in total defense and scoring defense last year. The Steelers gave up just 13.9 points per game. The Titans were second in scoring defense, allowing 14.6 PPG.

When these clubs met last year in Music City, the Titans captured a 31-14 victory as three-point home underdogs. White was seen stomping on a Terrible Towel at the end of the game, a move that angered the Steelers and certainly their fans. White has been talking trash this week, indicating that he?ll be doing the same thing Thursday night in Pittsburgh.

NBC will provide television coverage at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.



--The 'over' went 11-8 overall for the Steelers last season, 6-4 in their home games. The 'over' compiled a 5-1 mark in the six Pittsburgh home games that had a total in the 30s.

--The 'under' went 9-8 overall for the Titans in '08, but they saw it cash at a lucrative 6-2 clip in their road assignments.

--The Titans have won 50 of 52 games when leading after the third quarter on Fisher?s watch.

--Fisher is entering his 15th season as the head coach of the Titans (and formerly the Oilers). During his tenure, they are 5-6 in the playoffs.

--Tennessee went 6-2 ATS on the road in 2008. The Titans were road ?dogs just once, winning 24-7 at Cincinnati in Week 2 as one-point puppies.

--In ?08, Pittsburgh posted a 6-4 spread record in 10 spots as a home ?chalk.?

--The Steelers are 12-7 ATS in 19 games at Heinz Field on Tomlin?s watch.

 

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Week 1 Trends & Traps

Week 1 Trends & Traps

Week 1 Trends & Traps
September 9, 2009


If we?ve learned anything over the years about the opening weekend of the NFL regular season it?s this: it doesn?t look, smell or taste anything like the preseason. So forget what you?ve seen so far because you ain?t seen nothin? yet.
Having said that, you should know that Week 1 NFL betting can get a bit frantic. Stay clear of traps set to catch the unsuspecting overly anxious bettor who may not have his head wrapped around the right stats, especially for those ?big? games.

Make sure you?re not too eager to bet the farm on what appears to be a sure thing.

The anticipation and excitement of a brand new football betting season is a glorious feeling, but you can?t let it drain your common sense ? or your bankroll. Start the season off right. Remember that what happened last year is a thing of the past and there may be a whole new set of circumstances to consider ? with any matchup taking place over the first week.


Get good and ready because the real action begins right here, right now. With the NFL kicking off Thursday night on NBC with Tennessee at Pittsburgh, Steelers backers are out in force, with that line rising to its current six-point spread favoring Pittsburgh at Bodog Sportsbook from an open of 4.5.

While the Titans-Steelers game will surely generate a lot of hype, we expect most of the action to come on Sunday night?s Bears at Packers NFC North game in Jay Cutler?s debut with Chicago. Sunday night games generally rule the weekend in terms of handle and with this particular matchup the public currently is almost split down the middle on the game, with the Bears 3?-point dogs as of this writing.

What is interesting to note is the New York Jets at Houston Texans (-4?) game, and Minnesota Vikings (-4) at Cleveland Browns game. With both games bettors appear to be falling hard for the favorites. Mark Sanchez?s debut as QB for the Jets hasn?t won him many votes from the bettors, but it also doesn?t help when two of your strongest defensive starters (Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis) are out on suspension. Then again, Texans starting QB Matt Schaub is officially day-to-day with an ankle sprain suffered more than a week ago.

As for the Vikings-Browns, it appears the public thinks the Browns should be getting a lot more than four points. As of this writing, we still don?t know who Cleveland?s starting QB will be, although it?s expected to be Brady Quinn. If Minnesota?s Kevin Williams and Pat Williams had been forced to sit out this game because of their pending legal fight with the NFL, this line likely would have been altered significantly. But they are cleared to play. And then there?s that small matter of Brett Favre making his debut as a Viking. Like him or wish he was hitting the greens instead of the gridiron, Favre drives the needle from a handle perspective as well.

Other games we?re keeping a close eye on:

* Lions at Saints: New Orleans is the biggest favorite on our board at -13?. Why? You know damn well why, so don?t make me out to be the bad guy here. It?s like this: the Detroit defense was one of the worst in history last year, while Saints QB Drew Brees nearly broke Dan Marino?s record for passing yards in a season. The Saints won in Detroit by 35 points last year.

* 49ers at Cardinals: San Francisco has been getting some love as an NFC West dark horse and bettors appear to be shying away from a team whose good fortune may have ended with last year?s playoff run.

* Bills at Patriots (Monday): Are you kidding me? Tom Brady?s return to real action, not to mention Terrell Owens? debut with the Bills, is going to draw huge numbers for the networks and the books. Buffalo will be without starting RB Marshawn Lynch and they just cut starting offensive tackle Langston Walker, so that team seems in disarray. The Pats seem weaker on defense without Richard Seymour, so it could be a shootout. The public is favoring the over at this point.

 

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LVSC Rankings - Week 1

LVSC Rankings - Week 1

LVSC Rankings - Week 1


Another NFL season is here, as the Las Vegas Sports Consultants has released its first power rankings for 2009. Many teams have moved around this poll since the final release at the conclusion of the 2008 regular season. Nine of the top eleven teams qualified for the postseason last year, with Dallas and New Orleans as the two clubs in that top tier that didn't make the playoffs in '08.

The Patriots begin the season in the top spot, coming off an 11-5 campaign in 2008. Obviously, the knee injury to Tom Brady derailed New England's chances at going back to the Super Bowl after the 16-0 season in '07. Brady is healthy once again, but the Pats lost several veterans on defense, with the retirements of LB Tedy Bruschi and S Rodney Harrison. Also this week, the Pats sent Pro Bowl defensive end Richard Seymour to the Raiders for a future first-round pick. New England opens up the season Monday night as 10 ?-point home favorites against Buffalo.


The Super Bowl Champion Steelers finished the regular season at number two, and will start this season in that same position. Mike Tomlin's squad won nine of its last ten games to give the franchise an NFL-record sixth Lombardi Trophy. The lone loss in that stretch was at Tennessee, 31-14, as the Steelers get a chance to avenge that defeat against the Titans in the opener on Thursday.

San Diego made the biggest leap, from 12th to 3rd, after rallying past Denver to win the AFC West last season. The Chargers are the clear-cut favorite to win their division in '09, as Norv Turner's club debuts on the road Monday night at Oakland.

The team that finished number one to end last season begins this year in the fifth spot, the New York Giants. Tom Coughlin's team made an early exit in the playoffs, falling to the Eagles at home in the second round. The G-Men begin the season with consecutive games inside the division, against the Redskins at home, then at Dallas.

Tampa Bay suffered the biggest drop, falling from 13th to 27th. The Bucs lost their final four games to end last season, resulting in a missed playoff berth, and the departure of head coach Jon Gruden. The Bucs changed things around under center, as Byron Leftwich begins the season as the starting quarterback, taking over for Jeff Garcia, who is now in Oakland. The Bucs are a six-point home underdog in the opener against the Cowboys.

Below is LVSC's NFL Power Rankings for Week 1.

LVSC NFL Power Rankings - Week 1
Rank Team Rating 2008 LVSC Rank
1 New England 144.5 7
2 Pittsburgh 142.0 2
3 San Diego 140.5 12
4 Philadelphia 140.3 9
5 N.Y. Giants 139.4 1
6 Indianapolis 139.2 6
7 Dallas 138.4 4
8 Baltimore 138.3 4
9 Tennessee 137.0 3
10 New Orleans 136.2 14
10 Minnesota 136.2 10
12 Atlanta 136.0 11
13 Chicago 135.9 18
14 Arizona 135.8 19
14 Green Bay 135.8 22
16 Carolina 135.7 8
17 Houston 135.0 17
17 Miami 135.0 17
19 Washington 134.5 20
20 Seattle 134.3 26
21 Buffalo 133.7 23
22 N.Y. Jets 133.4 15
23 Jacksonville 133.2 24
24 San Francisco 132.4 25
25 Cincinnati 131.1 28
26 Denver 129.2 21
27 Tampa Bay 129.0 13
28 Kansas City 128.0 27
29 Cleveland 127.4 30
30 St. Louis 127.0 31
30 Oakland 126.8 29
32 Detroit 126.0 32