Week 1 NFL Plays

[Nick Douglas]

All plays are 2* plays. Star values break down like this:

Bankroll: $1,500

1* $40
2* $50
3* $60

GIANTS +3 over San Francisco

TENNESSEE -1 over Philadelphia

Jets -3 over BUFFALO

CAROLINA +2 over Baltimore

JACKSONVILLE +3 1/2 over Indianapolis

I have some short write ups posted on my page. Good luck.

 

[Pujo21]

IM GONNA BOX YOUR SUNDAY TEAMS IN 10 POINT TEASERS!!!

IM GONNA BOX YOUR SUNDAY TEAMS IN 10 POINT TEASERS!!!

$ 50 each teaser.

#1
Tenn + 9
JETS + 7
CARO + 12
_______________

# 2
TENN + 9
JETS + 7
JAX + 13
_______________

# 3
JETS + 7
CARO + 12
JAX + 13
_______________

# 4
TENN + 9
CARO + 12
JAX + 13


GOOD LUCK ON YOUR PLAYS !
:firing:

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, man. Looks like u have some winners there. And congrats on your past success in those posted records.

One request. Update that picture to make it you and your girlfriend from the MJ party, and lose the Balls Maloney pic.

Later, dude.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Actually, that is a good idea, Chucky. I will do that.

I would definitely recommend playing these plays straight rather than in teasers. If you guys must have a teaser play, this would be it.

Carolina +8.5 & Jacksonville +10

As far as parlays go, the only decent recommendation I can think of is:

Carolina +2/Over 32 1/2

With Baltimore starting two rookies at safety the Panthers' best chance of winning is a higher scoring game.

Again, I recommend NEVER playing teasers or parlays but if you guys insist those are the choices I would make. Good luck.

 

[NuttyGambler]

Never say Never...

Never say Never...

Really Nick. I think there is value in TWO team teasers when you can move a -3 to a +3 or move a bigger spread to a very nice number. Like

I like a 6 point teaser
Minnesota + 10 1/2
with
Detroit +14 1/2

Both these numbers are high enough to be in the safe area with the 1/2 points. (I think MN has a real shot at winning this one outright)

Again good luck in the season Nick.

-Nutty

Preseason
7-4-0 Straight
2-0-0 Teasers

 

[acehistr8]

I am now guaranteed disaster as 4 of my plays are on the opposite side of Nick. Christ.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Acehigh,

C'mon, man. You know what a crapshoot week 1 can be. I do think my plays are strong but you have to be confident in your own handicapping, too.

As for the talk about teasers, I maintain my position that giving the -262 juice is just too much of a risk even getting points over key numbers. Just my opinon.

 

[acehistr8]

I know, I'm just pulling your leg

I have developed what I think will be a very powerful prediction tool this year. While it is somewhat predicated on past results, it also uses a couple of current inputs. I think this will be much more usefull in Weeks 3, 4 and onward.

NFL IS ALMOST HERE!!!

 

[smart_money]

Wow......4 tease right off the get...... and 3 teamers to boot.

Thats a book dream.......I would play those SU......otherwise you may lose all 4.......all it takes is a simple mistake in one game to have you crying in your beer.

Do the right thing and get off the 3 teamers....you'll be glad you did.

 

[Nick Douglas]

I probably should have posted this earlier, but the push on the posted play (I played it at 3 1/2 and got the win) illustrates the importance of knowing when to bet games. It seemed pretty clear that SF -3 was "too low" and therefore would mean that a ton of squares would pile on the Niners. This generally happens with faves but sometimes with dogs.

The point is that a good general rule is to play faves early in the week and dogs closer to gametime. It does really depend on the play, though, because sometimes there is heavy action on the dog and you can get burned trying to wait for a better line.

As for the rest of my 4 plays this week, betting the Jets early is probably a good idea. The Titans are a tough read for me. My gut feeling is that betting the Jags and Panthers late is the way to go.

My plays will always be graded by the lines I post. On most weeks I will have my plays up on Tuesday or Wednesday so that people who plan on following my money management system all season long will have a chance to shop for a good line and take a look at each game themselves before playing it.

One last word to not get too up or too down over one game and good luck this Sunday and Monday.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Teasers can be one of the most profitable ways to make money betting in the NFL. For example, from 1990-2000 Home dogs of Between +1.5 and +2.5 hit their teaser bet 82.2% of the time, which is much more than enough to justify the -262 you have to lay to put them into a 2-team 6-point teaser (and if you play 3-teamers at +180 then you only have to lay -244)

Road teams and also -7.5 to -8.5 favourites also show a profit in this situation over those 10 years. When you tease to catch both the key 3 and 7 points in the NFL, you have a great bet. I agree that if you can't catch these numbers then teasers generally stink.

 

[acehistr8]

I probably should have posted this earlier, but the push on the posted play (I played it at 3 1/2 and got the win) illustrates the importance of knowing when to bet games.

Couldnt agree more. Played this game when the lines first opened at 2.5 and made a small play on the Giants at +5. Knowing when to bet and most importantly SHOPPING THE LINES can be the difference between a huge night and a huge loss.

 

[ozzy]

Nick, do you still like the Panthers now that Rodney Peete is starting? I know Baltimore lost a lot in the offseason, and I don't think Redman is very good, but I haven't really seen much of anything with the Panthers offense, and I don't see much value in either side in this game. Just wondering what your reasoning is. I would bet the under, but I think there will probably be some defensive scores in this game.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Peete starting is a factor in me playing Carolina. I actually like the offense to respond when a quarterback is replaced just before the start of the season. Baltimore is really a bad team. I honestly have a hard time rating them ahead of anyone in the NFL besides possibly Buffalo, Detroit or Houston. Carolina should have plenty of success rushing the ball and with two rookie safeties playing for the Ravens, play action will be available all day if Peete wants it. GL.

BTW, no under play here, at least for me. One fluke score can really foul up a total this low.

 

[GlobalTrance]

Nick , the line didn't move until the extent (or media's perception of) of barber's injury was acknowledged (went from 3 to 4 in two days) . At THAT time (the announcement) the game went off the board at infinity(most likely most other books too)(re-opened at 3.5) . My question is , HOW , can you correlate that to "knowing when to play a game" ? It is agreed to play fav's early in the week vs. dogs last minute , I just don't get the analogy ?

 

[trademaster]

i love your titians/jags plays

Not sure bout jets -3 though. What do u think about the under for jets/bills?????????

 

[Nick Douglas]

I don't really play totals so I don't have a good opinion on that under. I think the Jets will have a great offense, though, so be careful.

GT,

The general idea is to simply play early on faves and late on dogs because squares play more faves than dogs. I wrote up a column on my page about it, but the general idea is that if you have been gambling long enough, generally most people are able to get an idea of where the public's money will go.

For instance I checked out ESPN's "experts" picks for this weekend and every person has the Colts beating the Jags. With only a 3 1/2 point spread that would indicate that the line will get bet up to at least 4 by gametime, so I am waiting to play the play I posted. Maybe I will end up being wrong, but I am just playing the percentages since lines generally move with public sentiment rather than against it.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Hank Goldberg of ESPN is probably the sharpest mainstream media handicapper in my opinion. For what it's worth, here is what he picked for today:

Jets -3

Chiefs +1

Titans -1

Broncos +3

Bears -4.5

Good luck.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Oh, yeah, forgot to post that his record ATS was 69-41-3 last season.

 

[Biggy]

Good luck today Nick! Did Hanc say anything about the Dolphins? it rained pretty good here about half hour ago, now the suns up, and should be out for the game...