I agree with CrazyHorse that the under in the Dal/Atl game is probably the better play. With only 2 QBs on the roster, Atl will probably be a little conservative and let their defense get the job done. Now that all the starters will be playing, and everyone is going full speed, I can't see the Cowboys offense doing much of anything. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys do have a decent defense and should be able to contain the Falcons, so I agree that we're looking at a 13-10 type of game.
I would definitely lean towards the Falcons to win (ATS) because there tends to be a public overreaction when a star player gets injured. Before Vick went down, the Falcons were sitting as 3 point favorites. Now they're +2. He is talented, but I don't think that any player is worth a 5 point swing. I'd look for the Falcons to rally around Johnson and play a solid game and come out with the straight up victory, but the under is far and away the better play.
2 other games that I like this week are both totals, and both unders. Early in the season, defenses have the advantage, since it's up to the offenses to make positive things happen. There is also a saying that the oddsmakers never set the highest total high enough, or the lowest total low enough. So I'm also playing:
Carolina/Jacksonville under 35. Carolina announced that R Peete will be their starting QB. Nothing against Peete, but he's never reminded me of Dan Marino or Joe Montana. With him starting, I look for steady doses of running with Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster. Carolina is better off this year with Kasay at kicker, who should solidify that position, but that means more 3s than 7s on the scoreboard. On the Jacksonville side, without Jimmy Smith, they are a little thin at WR, so the passing game should suffer, and Fred Taylor should see plenty of action if he's up to the task, which shouldn't generate much offense against the strong front 7 of Carolina. I'm guessing this will end up something like Carolina 16-7.
Pitt/Baltimore under 40. I think if you look up the word conservative in the dictionary, it would read something like this: "A rookie QB, making his first start, in a huge divisional rivarly game on the road..." I think the only way Baltimore stays competetive in this game is to rely on their defense to keep it close, and not have the offense make any mistakes. Boller may develop into a star QB someday, but I'm sure he'll make his share of mistakes early, so I would assume that Billick will not put pressure on him to make plays. Baltimore defense should be able to limit Pitt scoring somewhat, but this is more of a bet against Baltimore offense at this point. Also, if Pitt does get a lead, then we all know how conservative Cowher gets. Pitt 24-7.
NOTE: I don't have any stats on this, but it seems to me that kicking FGs in Pitt new stadium (Heinz field) is a shaky propostion. It seems that because of the wind or whatever that a lower percentage of FGs are made here than other stadiums. Does anybody have any information to either back this up or disprove it? But it seems like there are at least one or two missed FGs per game here, which lowers the scoring even more.
