week 1 (Sept.6th-10th)

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Might as well give it a try, here.
Got a system that I use for 'capping the NFL but I need a few games worth of stats, first, before I can have any faith in it. Takes a ton of time, really--nowhere near as efficient as my baseball system.
Using the force, for now.
Maybe some reasoned judgement thrown in.

I like the Colts to take the season opener but I'm not too fancy on the -5.5 so...

2-team-parlay
--Colts ml
--Seahawks ml
-104
0.77/0.73

2-team-parlay
--Colts ml
--Cowboys ml
-104
0.77/0.73

I need to hit all 3 games (which I think is likely) to make any money out of that, but I opted out of a 3-teamer as this way I can basically break even if I split. I compared the price (where I got these) to that of similar teasers and this way pays slightly better.

Some others I'm still considering:
409 steelers -4.5
412 Jags -6.5
418 Vikes -3
421 patriots -6
424 Seahawks -6
426 Chargers -6
428 Raiders -2.5
430 Cowboys -6
431 ravens +3

That's too many favorites so I'll try to narrow the list down to something manageable. My plays will be small for the first few weeks.

The 6 that I've got listed at -6 or -6.5 all look to be decent plays on teasers. I might tackle the rest of week 1 that way but I recommend that you always compare the payout with that of a parlay because often the latter will pay better.

If only I had the nuts to try a NCAA post.
I AM 1-0 on the season, so maybe my left field isn't in the twilight zone.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Decent start to this adventure. Guess I coulda sacrificed the 5.5 after all. Colts D sure looked good, aye?

Adding some slowly but surely (trying to stay focused on baseball).

One more so far:

2-team-teaser (6 pt)
--Jaguars -1
--patriots pk
-110
0.78/0.72

Passing on the Raiders, from my earlier list, but I'll likely try some of the others.
Also considering taking a shot with the Texans.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Trying this string of favorites:

7-team IF bet
1.steelers -4.5 0.66/0.6
2.Vikings -3 0.52/0.5
3.patriots -6 0.57/0.5
4.Jaguars -7 0.55/0.5
5.Seahawks -5.5 0.77/0.7
6.Chargers -6 0.77/0.7
7.Cowboys -6 1.1/1
0.66 to win max.4.5

 

[USCMD]

GL extrap.

I agree that you need at least 2-3 weeks before betting with confidence. Lots of luck to the guys that derive meaning from the exhibition games.

Doc

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Adding one more, today, before I crash.
These 2 looks like the most likely winners for week 1.

2-team-parlay
--steelers ml
--Seahawks ml
+106
0.73/0.77


I might double or even triple-up on this one; going to see how baseball treats me today.
Maybe better value playing the spread(s) but for the early going it might be difficult enough just to pick winners so I'll be looking at mostly parlays and teasers.
They've been good to me in the past.

One final note then I am toast: if you're looking for a solid game for a teaser (7-points would be best) then I recommend trying the Argos for Saturday (CFL); they just opened the line, at -10, and I figure that there is a very good chance that the Boatmen take this game by double figures. Teasing it to -3 makes it look too easy to be true.
Famous last words.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Getting a little more serious here:

steelers -4.5 -110 1.1/1


Think that one looks best, so worth a shot on the spread.

No doubt some more to come.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Added my other favorite:

Seahawks -5.5 -110 1.1/1


Out here on the perimeter there are no stars
Out here we is stoned...immaculate!

(Jim, The WASP)

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Got a bunch more.
This should be it for tomorrow:

steelers -4.5 -105 1.05/1 (pumpin' up a previous bet)
Seahawks -5.5 -110 2.2/2 (pumpin')
2-team-parlay
--Texans ml
--steelers ml
+130
0.61/0.79
Rams ml -125 1.25/1
2-7 teaser
--Vikings +4
--ravens +10
-130
0.91/0.7
2-6 teaser (pumpin' up a previous...a mistake, actually, but whathey...they look good!:weed: )
--Jaguars -1
--patriots pk
-110
0.78/0.72
2-6 teaer
--patriots pk
--Chargers pk
-110
0.55/0.5
2-6 teaser
--patriots pk
--Cowboys pk
-110
0.68/0.62
ravens +3 -125 0.75/0.6
ravens ml +125 0.8/1
2-6 teaser
--Jaguars -1
--Chargers pk
-110
0.78/0.72
2-6 teaser
--Jaguars -1
--Cowboys pk
-110
0.55/0.5
Vikings -3 -105 0.84/0.8
2-7 teaser
--Chargers +1
--ravens +10
-130
0.78/0.6
Cowboys -6 -110 0.78/0.72


Got some live picks remaining from combo NCAA teasers but I'm just going to keep track of my pure NFL plays in here. Got the Minnesota baseball team parlayed with their football, as another example of my adventures.

I think this is it.
Only thing I might do is add to that Steelers play, but if I do I might just parlay the moneyline with some kinda nice looking baeball pick.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

This closes me out for Sunday:

3-team-parlay
--Jaguars ml
--patriots ml
--Seahawks ml
+150
0.52/0.78


Does me. Will try to get some shut-eye before gametime (6.5 hours as I type this).
If I didn't need sleep my life would be almost perfect.
Almost.

GL

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:bed:


The times are bad,
the luck's been had
and there's nothing left to smoke.
Will I be back tomorrow
for the punchline of the joke

(James Gang, The Bomber, Rides Again, 1970)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

So far--heading into Sunday night:

8-4 +5.5


Some action on the 'Boys and the Ravens pending.
Hit my 2 best bets (Steelers & Seahawks).
Really enjoying week 1.
Jaguars losing my only real burn.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

That was fun.
Seemed too easy to be true.

Heading into Monday:

11-4 +7.57
ml 0-1 -1.25
spread 4-0 +6.52
teasers 2-3 -1.77
parlays & IFs 5-0 +4.07
best bets 2-0

pending:

2-7 teaser
--Vikings +4 (goal)
--ravens +10
-130
0.91/0.7

2-7 teaser
--Chargers +1 (goal)
--ravens +10
-130
0.78/0.6

ravens +3 -125 0.75/0.6
ravens ml +125 0.8/1


Got the Ravens on 2 more teasers, at +10, from NCAA combos so I figure that I'll just leave it at this, despite a solid Sunday suggesting that I should slam something.
All of the "experts" seem to be siding with the Ravens, for whatever that's worth, and I've always had a soft spot for them since they won the Superbowl (STILL my biggest game ever, despite that being ages ago); I'm going to stop where I'm at as the Bengals should still have a killer offense and they are at home so this one appears to be up for grabs--4 of my 6 live Ravens plays are at +10 so I think I'm looking pretty good.
Ravens get slammed and I'm still a week 1 winner.

Hendrix bless us, everyone!

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

week 1 summary:

13-6 +7.32
ml 0-2 -2.05
spread 4-1 +5.77
teasers 4-3 -0.47
parlays & IFs 5-0 +4.07
best bets 2-0


I'll take it. Any week. Nice to get that first one out of the way with a plus. Already looking into some for next week but I've kind of got baseball to keep me busy for a few days; hopefully I can hold off until later in the week like I did for week 1; only thing I might do is some teaser action if there's some lines I like that would tease to key numbers.

Survived just fine.
Guess I'll keep posting NFL.

:weed:
:SIB