And thats what I was saying about the VT offensive Co... you get the ball back with about 4 mins to play on the 13 and you take Williams out after he was pushing 9 yards a clip on the previous drive???? How this guy has a job is beyond me... I think that skin beemer has on his face was donated by the offensive co, thats the only thing I can think.
Texas A&M (-5.5) over Colorado
Big play
I like this play a lot. I see a lot of value backing the aggies because Colorado is outright bad. Colorado is a bad team, AND they just found out the PRIZE recruit of a few years ago want out! A&M scares me because who is going to show up. Is it the team that beat Texas Tech or the team that got blown out by Ark and Kansas st. The Aggies have Oklahoma on deck but I cannot see this as a game where they pull a Kansas. Considering Colorado's defense is terrible and A&M ranks 3rd nationally putting up over 400 yards per game you have to think the aggies will not struggle putting up points. You have to think the redshirt QB for colorado might not have any confidence because he rarely gets protection and has a hard time making things happen for this team. A&M has a solid enough defense to get to the QB and cause him some serious issues all afternoon. But I think this game comes down to Aggie offense against the lack of Colorado defense. Colorado showed that when a team does not come to play they can sneek up on them like in the Kansas game. You have to think the Aggies coaching staff showed them that film all week and made it know that the aggies have a good shot for a decent bowl if they play well over the next 4 games. Colorado has not scored more than once in the first quarter in any game this season and has been outscored 64-27 in the period. This colorado team has no answers, they have recorded both of their wins at home but the only one of sustance was the kansas game and watching that game the jayhawks didn't even get off the bus. Colorado is a bad football team but I do smell something funny when looking at the line. Yes I know that A&M has okie on deck but I still see them by at least DD against colorado. The fact I got it at 5.5 and it has gone to three makes me a little nervous but I have to see the better team in this game and forget the movement and see value that even if A&M comes with half a heart that still more than Colorado brings. I do not think Colorado can contain Johnson at all and to shut down colorado.. stack the box and double McKnight.
Arkansas (-5) over S.Carolina
I think the gamecocks have peaked a bit. The game they put together against Tenn was out right terrible. Ark has been hot and cold all year. They are 4-4 and really have to make up some ground if they want to get into a bowl. S.Car has florida on deck and although I don't think the cock overlook this Ark team I think going into Ark against a team that can throw like they can it is going to be a very tough day. Remember a long time ago when Georgia just scored on almost everything against S.Car well thats what I think is going to happen this week. 4 road games for SC this season, they lost 3 of them and the other was a 7-3 barnburner against NC st. This is not a very good road team. Now they are forced to play back to back conference road games and are off a loss last week. This Ark team averages a lot of points at home somewhere in the neighborhood of 50, thats a neighborhood S.Carolina cannot afford. I think Ark comes out and tries to punch them in the mouth early and never look back. They need a big win and this woulkd be that for Ark. This team will be dangerous in the future but I just do not see the SC defense containing the passing game.
SMU (-18) over Rice
Small play
Again this goes with my season play of any team giving less that 20 points is a value against Rice.
Penn St (-4) over Ohio St
This is a big play for me for a few reasons. One is I think Penn St is the better team but they just haven't really had a game where they have cared to play. I mean honestly Ohio st getting Pryor was just not a good fit for the kid. He would be a far better QB if he went somewhere they taugh players how to get better at that position. I think Ohio st really went after him in an attempt to keep him away from Michigan. I don't think Michigan would have made him a better QB but Pryor in the pat white type role would be very dangerous and Tressle knew it. So now they struggle to balance what they do, who they are and what works with the players and boosters. THREE AWAY games so far this season, just three against the big boys like Toledo, Indiana and Purdue, but Purdue was a live dog and won that game. Now the buckeyes go to Happy valley, if they thought Purdue was a tough place to play they are in for a shock. Can I ask when the last time Ohio state won a big game like this? I know the Mich/OSU is a big game but I am talking a big game not a rivalry? I cannot remember the last time the bucks won one, in fact I think the are the Notre dame in that department. I think this comes down to Penn state holding them in the run department and putting it on Pryors arm to win. He has not been put in those types of games where he has to throw in order to move the offense and he will struggle. They have a good defense but I think Penn st match up better against it. Veteran QB, solid o-line and very gifted running back. This game to me looks like Penn state can pick and chose what they want to do and if they come to play with their A game I thing they win by more than a TD. BUT if they play sloppy, or give Ohio st some false hope the Bucks can make a game of it but I still think that Penn st is the better team on both sides of the ball. PLUS it is not going to be easy for the former pro soccer player kicking FG's for OSU in this game and I think that could hurt them as well.
Oregon (-5) over Stanford
small play
based on the offense that oregon brings. Stanford is a good team offensively and they can play well at home but I think the ducks can beat that defense all day. BUT off an emotional win on the road against a live dog I like it a little. One reason it is a play is that when teams are down to Stanford (and they normally are after half in stanford) they cannot hold them off. I think thats because teams put more passes into the mix and get the defense tired and the ducks can do that all game not just in the second session.
Houston (-2) over Tulsa
HUGE PLAY
I see no value in tulsa in this game. EVERY big test for Tusla they have failed. Boise gave them every oppertunity to win and they couldn't take advantage and Boise played one of the least aggressive games I have seen from them. They got smoked by Oklahome to the tune of a shut out. Currently they are riding a THREE game losing streak and UTEP and SMU are in there. What I love is even though I do not see tulsa on the same page as Houston for some reason they are considered a cream team in that conference so Houston will come to play and play aggressive. Houston throws a lot of different looks at teams defensively and you have a first year starter that hasn't exactly looked good in the face of pressure and an o-line that has looked outright terrible in games. This is the last BIG test for Houston with Memphis, UCF and rice left on the sched, so a HUGE win here would be a big thing come bowl game selection time. I think the difference is performance in tough games, houston has shown up and played hard while Tulsa struggles. This is a great spot for Houston to close out the season. They ALWAYS bring offense to the game and against Tulsa they should score at ease, the question is can a defense that has been a liability step up. Houston has the edge in every department here but I think the line is VERY fishy now with Houston plus. I cannot see how Tulsa matches point for point with them all night. Last year against a better tulsa team Houston destroyed them and they should have the same mentality in this game. The cougars bring far too much fire power and Tulsa struggle. If you watch to stop Tulsa from getting momentum take #3 johnson out of the game, that kid is the only true break away player Tulsa has and I think Houston is used to playing an offense like this so it comes down to how is the better team and Houston is by far. This is all or nothing for Tulsa so they will give it their best shot but in the end Houston should win and cover the number.
Louisville (+20) over WVU
small play
who the hell has WVU played and beaten to give them this type of edge? They are a mid teir team in the big east and were lucky to get a UConn team emotionally confused to start the game leading to the kickoff return for a TD. I think WVU has more talant but I see a ton of value in it for Louisville since they have played close games in the past few and both teams do not have reliable QB play. I have to take this number just because WVU has not played anyone of sustance, they have looked bad in almost every game and they have a big game coming up.
Cheers
Irish
