week 10 plays

vanbasten

vanbasten

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Nov 21, 2001
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last week 5-2 (+10.7 units)
overall 41-27-1 (+40.55 units)

5* 3-0
3* 17-7-1
2* 13-11
1* 8-8
1/2* 0-1

week 1 6-2-1 (+8.80 units)
week 2 4-4 (+0.85 units)
week 3 6-4 (+9.20 units)
week 4 2-4 (-1.60 units)
week 5 5-2 (+6.50 units)
week 6 4-4 (-0.90 units)
week 7 6-2 (+9.80 units)
week 8 3-3 (-2.80 units)
week 9 5-2 (+10.7 units)

worked on the sides for week 10 and the ps advantage looks like this...

strongest...

nyg - dd spread already, but i'm showing almost 14.
sd +
oak +

the rest...

wash +
az +
chi +
car +
jax +
cle +
dall -
balt +
philly +

two interesting lines this week that no one would have guessed just two weeks ago. we have carolina as a home dog and the raiders getting 3 at home vs the jets. from super bowl to a home underdog vs the 2-6 jets....interesting.

good luck to all:)
 
T

TheItalianguy

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van basten,

I think we cap games similarly, looking at similar things, because I tend to have similar plays (like the big play on philly last week). However, I have the Giants at 10 for next week, plus the little confidence i have in them. It just seems that they are a volatile team and i never know which team is gonna show up. what you think?
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

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italian guy...

italian guy...

these pointspread advantages are just that, against the current line. it's a program that sets the objective line from a database i've accumulated and is updated weekly.

it's my starting point for handicapping. i then look at ats stats and trends, look to find mismatches on the field, and then wait for injury reports.

as far as personal confidence or lack of that i may have for a team ("which giant team is going to show up"), i try to not let that sway me, prefering to stick to my numbers if they support a play, instead of my perception. our general perception of teams is what linesmakers take into consideration and hope we base our plays on.

now, historical "hunches" i have, based on past experiences in wagering (letdowns, traps, revenge, huge consensus, etc.) i will put some merit on it when deciding a play, especially consensus. nothing i like more than a play my homework supports, that is a huge consensus they other way.

we know the mismatches are there, gmen second in total offense, 2nd in passing offense, with atlanta last in the league in total defense, near the bottom in both rushing and passing d.

giants basically getting their second home game in a row (played as "away" vs jets last week). i like that in ny favor.

ats stats of interest to me...

atl 4-2 their last 6 against nyg
atl 2-5 their last 7 away
atl 1-5 their last 6 after being 3.5 to 7 point underdogs

nyg are 4-12-2 their last 18 games at home.
nyg are 1-3-1 their last 5 games
nyg are 5-0 their last 5 games after scoring 31-40 points
nyg are 9-4 their last 13 after being favored by 1-3 points

from madjack's, i like to wait for GM's system plays, see where i have some support, and i always look at 4bubba's updates (in nfl matchup forum) on games i'm considering (anyone not at least looking at that info is missing some good stuff). lastly, by week's end, i'm always curious to see other poster's plays, always nice to see who's with me and who's not;)

all this being said...don't know yet if the gmen will be a play for me this week or not.:D

good luck to you.
 
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vanbasten

vanbasten

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worked out the totals and just a few advantages...

kc/clev U - will play, waiting for higher #

chi/det O
atl/nyg O played
sea/wash O
oak/nyj O
gb/phil O

narrowed down sides to these leans...

dallas - played
balt + anything above 7 will be a definite play.
sd + if flutie starts, it's a play.
wash +
chi +
jax +
car+

played the following...

atl/nyg Over 41 2*
dallas -4 3*

good luck to all :)
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

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dallas play...

dallas play...

i see alot of buffalo supporters and i'm trying to figure out why??

all i hear is buff off bye, buff coming off bad loss, dallas between sandwich games, dall overrated.:shrug:

fwiw, i have dallas with the biggest ps edge this week. my #'s have the boys - 7.5...and i hate the cowboys:D

i could be wrong...good luck to all:)
 
G

GM

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Wow, someone actually reads my system plays?? :p I need to read them more. I tend to post them and then hardly use them.

I am with you on nearly every game this week. Right off the bat Dallas and Arizona jumped out at me. I too am confused about all the Buffalo hype...just can't figure out what they've done to impress anyone since Week 2!

Oakland...MAN...I want to pull the trigger so bad. I know they are a bad team, 0-8 ATS this year, and seriously banged up. And Rick Mirer is not great, but please PLEASE don't get hurt. Rob Johnson coming into the game would be BRUTAL. Still, I don't think they should be a home dog to another 2-6 team.

I also think your Giants Over play is VERY strong. Liking Buffalo Under at the moment. San Diego's gutsy but another one that I was thinking of waiting on.

Seattle - How does a 6-2 team go 3-5 ATS?? Not crazy about them on the road, or laying points.

Jax - That, I cannot do. :D

Good luck, I think it's going to be a good week, I'm feeling the good vibes. :yup
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

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played...

played...

san diego +6.5 (+105) sia 1*

gm...i go back and forth on oakland. at 0-8 ats, they're begging for a oakland cover. and this looks like the week.

i know come monday, if they do cover, i'd be saying "i should have seen it coming."

good luck to all:)
 
THE KOD

THE KOD

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vanbasten

great record for the year.

Good luck this week.


Can you believe we are entering into second half of games already. Man I must be getting old the way time flys by now.


KOD
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

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played...

played...

kc/cle under 44 3*

all plays for this afternoon...

dallas -4 3*
kc/cle under 44 3*

nyg/atl over 41 2*

chi +2 1*
sd + 6.5 (+105) 1*

5 plays, can't seem to pull the trigger on any others. maybe that's a good thing.

still like jax +, car +, oak + and wash +, but not enough to throw $$ on them.

really like balt + tonight, hoping the number gets over 7. will post if i play it.

good luck to all:)
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

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got the 7...

got the 7...

played...

jax +7 1*

good luck to all:)

thanks vicc - opp. sides on the nyg total, but otherwise gl:D
 
vanbasten

vanbasten

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2-4-2 (-8.85 units)

lost 2 plays for 5 units on balt. thought i had both plays right....wierd game. oh well, onto the next game.

like philly + tonight. may just call it a week and get ready for next.

good luck to all.
 
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