Week 10 plays

capping-guru

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CG, you have to get off the illini, bro. The program is a mess right now. Beckman, from everything I have heard, never really got the respect of the players. Before the Wisco game, I heard a bunch of rumors about nicknames the players have for him and what a joke the program has become under him (not taht it was good anyway). Bottom line, he has lost the locker room already. I was told to stay away from wagering this team at all costs. Sure enough they have lost 3 straight ATS since I was told these stories.

25 is a lot of points, but I would be surprised if we covered. I'm thinking like 52-14 or something

Truly had no idea it was that bad in Champagne. Here is a team that run one coach out of town in Zook and now are trying to do it to another. So bizarre. I would hope some of these kids play with pride against a top ranked opponent. I hate buying back plays, I think I have done it once this year, but you got me thinking about it. Thanks for the info and heads up!
 

capping-guru

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I think you have quite a few good sides there. I do believe Nebraska has been undervalued so far this year so getting 1 at MSU looks attractive to me...no play yet. No love for Illinois from me.

I also like ISU getting 11 at home. Disagree on USF as I love teams that drop in class and that certainly is the case with UCONN. That game probably will be close at the half but, I think USF has a good shot to cover.

I like Temple getting 15 at Louisville as the Cardinals are winning but, seem to be playing tight and I think Temple will contain the QB which is a key.

Baylor is laying 17 to Kansas and, again I love situations where decent teams drop in class, at home, after losses as I think we get some value in the line.

UNM opened at plus 3.5 at UNLV...I have to take that although the game appears to be down at some books so I will have to read the latest news. I'll be on N Illinois -35 versus UMASS.

Next level of potential plays include the heavy favorite trio of Ohio, Kent and Utah State. First look also includes Indiana laying 1.5 at home to Iowa, Colorado State getting 10 from under performing Wyoming and Fresno. Kansas State and Texas Tech opened on the list but, both lines have moved by at least 2.5 points.

Finally...I really do like Pitt at +17. Perhaps it is my N. Dame bias (at least I didn't lose money betting against them last week) but, Pitt has played much better, this is a big game for them and I do believe their RB is good enough to keep the chains moving.

Too many games at this point but, I have to read other threads (including yours), gather some local info and look up last years match-ups.

Good Luck.

Huskers are tough to get a read on at times, but MSU at home is the difference. Glad we agree on ISU!

I like your thinking on Temple and I think UL does enough to get the win but not cover.

NIU should roll UMass. UNM QB's are out, they are depleted there and that is why the line is where its at, stay away game for me.

I could see IU finally beating Iowa after all these years. If there was a year, this is it!

ND either has a close game or they try to impress the polls by blowing out Pitt. I think ND ends up with a win but Pitt stays well inside the number. Pitt will play this game like their bowl game no doubt but ND is at home which helps when you could be in letdown mode. GL this week!:0074
 

capping-guru

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I love some of the looks you guys are posting here. Thanks for helping me get started in some interesting directions. Guru - I'm wondering if there are any of your dogs that you don't expect to go up in value during the week - you already mentioned Ill going up? I was hoping to get some favorites early, but I'm with you guys on some of the dogs.

Bob - I had Pitt circled as a team to watch this week - I love them in this spot in a ND letdown situation. I also think Baylor is in a great spot here.

Good stuff guys!

If any game went up in value it could be Troy. Outside of them, I dont see it on the games I have posted. Sorry, wish I could tell you more.
 

RollTide72

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New Mexico State:

...last game at home vs Louisiana Tech scored 14 points but not until the last 6 minutes of the game.

...in previous game only scored 7 points at Utah State.

...Idaho's only victory this year over NM State 26-18. Least amount of points Idaho has given up this year. Even Eastern Washington scored 20 points against Idaho.

...lost by 3TDs to Texas-San Antonio.

...lost 41-28 to UTEP and last 2TDs were in the final 6 minutes of the game.

Aggies rank 101st in scoring at 21 points a game but have not scored more than 18 points in last 5 games. Have scored 168 points in 8 games but 49 points were in the season opener against Sacramento State.

Of course the Barn ranks 122nd in scoring at 16.4 points per game and the most points they have scored all season was 31 points in OT against La-Monroe in week 3.

Not trying to talk you out of anything but Awbarn is absolutely pathetic this season and they are still laying 22+ points? Just seems too good to be true.
 

capping-guru

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New Mexico State:

...last game at home vs Louisiana Tech scored 14 points but not until the last 6 minutes of the game.

...in previous game only scored 7 points at Utah State.

...Idaho's only victory this year over NM State 26-18. Least amount of points Idaho has given up this year. Even Eastern Washington scored 20 points against Idaho.

...lost by 3TDs to Texas-San Antonio.

...lost 41-28 to UTEP and last 2TDs were in the final 6 minutes of the game.

Aggies rank 101st in scoring at 21 points a game but have not scored more than 18 points in last 5 games. Have scored 168 points in 8 games but 49 points were in the season opener against Sacramento State.

Of course the Barn ranks 122nd in scoring at 16.4 points per game and the most points they have scored all season was 31 points in OT against La-Monroe in week 3.

Not trying to talk you out of anything but Awbarn is absolutely pathetic this season and they are still laying 22+ points? Just seems too good to be true.

Great analysis!:0074
The more I look at this game the more I will lay off and hope for something good by playing the 2nd half of this game. Thanks for the info!!
 

capping-guru

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Temple +16 for 2 Units
I really see the Owls giving the Cards all they can handle. Solid D and UL has has 2 really hard fought conf. games the last 2 weeks against USF in comeback fashion and then in OT against Cincy. I look for them to come out flat. I will be playing Temple in the 1st half too!
 

capping-guru

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UCLA -3 for 3 Units
Arizona is flat out terrible on the road but great at home ATS! They are off their biggest win of the year over USC and are primed for a huge letdown here. UCLA has 1 loss at home to Oregon St. but have been very consistent in Pasedena. Bruins seem to use their balanced more at home than on the road, go figure! Love UCLA here.

NIU -34.5 for 3 Units
UMass will get blown out. Plain and simple, NIU at home will cover this by halftime. I will be playing them in the 1st half too. UMass has even more trouble against squads like NIU that strike fast. Let the covering machine continue for the Huskies.
 

capping-guru

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I was looking at hitting ND hard tmrw as Pitt has a horrible OL and gives up a ton of sacks, which is one of ND's strenghts. Then I saw this below.

"The Irish certainly have been a more convincing team away from Notre Dame Stadium. They've won their four home games by a total of 20 points. In their four wins away from South Bend, they've won by an average of 28 points."

Staying away from the game. It has backdoor cover written all over it.
 

capping-guru

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Minny +11.5 for 4 Units
Michigan offense hasnt scored a TD the last 2 games! Sure Denard missed a half against the Huskers but he was held in check yet again. The other two QB's for Michigan are flat out awful, 3 picks in one half last week. Denard like always is dinged up in a big way late in the season due to all the hits he takes and even Hoke said he isnt healing as fast, that says something. Laying 2 TD's on the road against a team that is 4-1 at home with only loss to NW and with a win Saturday becomes bowl eligible......love the Gophers here. They really found their offense last week too and I hope the freshman at QB continues his strong play!
 
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