Week 10 Plays

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PleasureGlutton
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Jan 21, 2000
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Last Week: 1-4-1, -3.3 units :mad:
Overall: 43-39-3, +2.5 units
All plays are for 1 unit unless stated otherwise.

Well, that's 2 Sundays out of 3 where I didn't get to watch the games, and they were my 2 worst weeks of the year. I am watching the games this week!! Also took way too many favorites last week and I usually don't do well when I do that. Oh well, onward.

Philly -9: Sure, take another big favorite you dope. :) Actually, I look at this as something of a bounceback spot for Philly after a subpar winning performance last week. Just don't see a way the Colts stay competitive here. Colts having trouble scoring against everyone, it doesn't get easier here. Eagles to get up early and cruise and hopefully I don't get backdoored.

Detroit / Green Bay Over 41: No defence in this game. Last week's Dal/Det game was an anomoly. This team still doesn't defend well...the 'Boys just have no offence. Should be a wide open shootout type of game and I think this total is on the low side due to both teams recent low totals.

Atlanta +5 -105: Pitt's hot so this is hard to do, but I think the Falcons can give the Steelers some problems here. Atlanta has been competitive in almost every game this year, almost always close even when losing. And Atlanta has shown they are a more than capable road team too. Pitt has yet to beat a really good team. A couple 3-point wins over Clev, and relatively easy wins against Cinci, Indy and Baltimore...all weaker than the Falcons. Against good teams like New Orleans, and teams that WERE good a while back like Oak and NE, the Steelers have come up short. In short, I don't think Pittsburgh has really been tested for at least a month. This line seems like just a few too many points to cover, if in fact the Steelers even win the game.

San Diego / St Louis Over 44: Chargers defence getting progressively worse. At the same time the Rams have finally figured out what makes their offence tick, mixing the running and passing games effectively. Rams defence giving up garbage points and that should be all that's needed to ensure this one goes over the number.

Houston +10 (or better, not in yet): A letdown spot for Tennessee I think, with Pittsburgh up next for them, and a win over Indy to tie for the division lead last week. Also a bounceback for the Texans after getting absolutely destroyed by the mighty Bengals last week. I've gotten burned with Houston a couple times this year, but it seems to me they usually follow up a miserable performance with at least a half decent one, and I don't see Tenn being the kind of team that should be laying 10 to anyone. Hou CAN stay competitive against teams that are weaker defensively, as is the case here.

Arizona -3 -115: Some injury concerns on the Cardinals side, but I still like it. Seattle is really struggling to do anything right at this point. 'Hawks have had real trouble scoring against good D, and this D is not bad. Cards have faced tough opponents recently and this is a big step down in class. Ariz can do enough to win and cover.

More to be added in the morning, or afternoon, or evening....

Good luck all.
 

S-Boom

Registered User
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Sep 7, 2001
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GM, I see you like the GB/Det Over. What do you think about GB team total?

S-Boom
 

3fingerstony

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Feb 25, 2002
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Good picks. I like the Philly game a lot.
The Det/GB over is a reasonable play although I disagree on the Lions. Theiroffense has gotten more conservative recently, & Stewart is not 100%. The GB Team Over is a safer play.
I think Atl loses a close game at Pitt. You are right about the Pitt losses, but that was before the turnaround with Maddox. I'm not convinced he's the long term answer but they are playing with a lot more confidence. With rain likely inPitt, the Under is a possibility - Vick sure won't succeed passing.
I LOVE theSD/STL over. This game should go over before the 4th quarter. The Rams can score against SD 'D' & that has nothing to do with the NYJ game.
I liked Arizona earlier in the week, but too many injuries have turned me off. I expect the Cards & Hawks to take turns running the ball all day & this game should be decided by a FG. A strong Under play here.
Also, the Redskins look like a solid pick this week.
Good luck with yours.
 

GM

PleasureGlutton
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Jan 21, 2000
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Hey guys,

Ya, I'd have to say I like GB TT Over too, but no more than I like the full game total over. Essentially liking GB TT Over but not Det TT Over means you like GB to cover...and I am not sure about that. So I'll stick with the Over for the full game.
 

GM

PleasureGlutton
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Jan 21, 2000
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Confirming:
Locked in Hou +10

I'm really hesitant to do this because it goes against so many good cappers who I respect. But I've just found too many compelling reasons to go with it.....

Adding:
Jacksonville -2?: A number of points in the Jags favor. Firstly, Jags DID show some spark at the end of last week's game. This is a team that has lost 4 in a row and fallen out of the division lead. The Houston game was an embarassment for sure, and they weren't able to atone for it fully last week. But now, on home turf, against a team that is pretty shaky defensively, they have their best chance. Jags hit the road for two after this game. Rule I once heard here: Avoid betting on a road team in their second-straight road game if they won the first. That's Washington's situation today (for that matter, New England and Cinci are also in the same spot). Redskins have traveled like crazy the last two weeks, from DC to the Pacific Northwest, back to DC, now down to the opposite corner of the country, Florida. Lots of air miles! Now add in that Washington's 2-game winning streak was built against 2 horrible teams right now that are going straight down, Indy and Seattle. This is the best team the Skins have faced in 3 weeks. Against quality teams (and I DO still believe Jacksonville is not as bad as their results have looked lately) the Skins have routinely gotten smoked this year. Add in the fact that it's still pretty warm in Jacksonville (82? game time temp) and there a decent chance the Skins tire late in the game. Very short line to cover so I will take a chance and buck the board consensus.
 

GM

PleasureGlutton
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Jan 21, 2000
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Adding:

NYG/Minn Under 45?: This is a very high total for a Giants game... they've only gone over this # once all season, and that was a 26-21 game @ StL...not exactly way over this total. So it would appear the odds are good it will be difficult to get enough points to top this big number. Minny has totaled high in many games this year, though they do have lower totals against defensive-type teams. Of course the big exception to that is last week against Tampa Bay, but that game was more a case of TB getting off to a huge lead and then the defences cruising the rest of the way. This game should be close which should help keep the scores lower I think.
 

GM

PleasureGlutton
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Thanks Anthony, u2!

Adding:
KC/SF Over 49: So many people on KC it makes me nervous, I just can't take the side. However, the total has dropped enough that I think it's definitely worth a shot at the Over. Possibility that both teams run the ball a lot in this game, but I think they can push it Over this total even if they do.
 

S-Boom

Registered User
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Sep 7, 2001
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GM,
Nice hit on GB over. The database never lies my friend. Team over hit easily too!

S-Boom
 

GM

PleasureGlutton
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Jan 21, 2000
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I love it, I love it, I love it...

Adding:

Miami +3 or +3? if I can get it: Olympic is holding this line at 2? and moving the money while most other places have gone to 3. Sure sign that they want still MORE NYJ money despite the imbalance...they are refusing to let you have a full FG. Obviously a ton of money is coming in on the Jets. Miami is the better team, the losing ends here. Jets run D stinks - big game for Ricky Williams. Will wait as long as I can to hopefully grab a +3? at one of my outs if I can.
 

theGibber1

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Aug 27, 2001
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had my eye on the Minny under also.. i was kicking myself for not pulling the trigger after the 3rd qtr..


22 pts in the 4th qtr???
then KCs D decided to show up for the first time all season..
27 in the first half...3 in the 2nd?? i didnt see that comming..

looks like you had some nice hits today.. and just had a few bad breaks on some others that should have won... i think you were on the right side..

anyway..

good job keep up the good work:)
 

GM

PleasureGlutton
Forum Member
Jan 21, 2000
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Really pressed for time, so no big writeups, but I am adding:

Oakland +6?
Under 47
Griese first pass incomplete +160 (risking a half unit)
Gannon first pass incomplete +160 (risking a half unit)

The last two are just for fun as the system seemed to be working. Gannon completing 67.8% of his passes this year, Griese 65.5% roughly, for those who are interested.

Hope I don't need that extra half point on Oakland, but it looks like they are really resisting making it +7.

Good luck all,
Greg
 
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