===*===
2025 NFL: 75-109-3 -966.90 (latest, wk9: 4-22-1 -1322)
--straight: 24-24-2 [sides: 21-22-1 (fave:15-19-1, dog:6-3) totals: 1-0-1 (ov:x-y, un:1-0-1) tt 1-0-0 (over:1-0) player props: 1-2]
--teasers: 39-42-1 [6, 6.5 & 7pts: 14-23, T3/10: 19-16-1, T4/13: 6-3]
--parlays: 12-43
===*===
=======
The good news is that I smoked the dogs last week, going a stellar 1-0. Skipping week 1, the past 8 weeks have seen me with 4 plusses, including one plusgood week, and 4 minuses, including one double-plus shitty one (see above). Still have 90% of my original bankroll, so never mind the bollocks. My imaginary pet goldfish thinks I shouldn't have come out of retirement. Just between you and me, I'd rather learn how to fish than to consume another's sole. Never mind the bollocks.
I'm just waiting for the dust to settle on the trade deadline, as well as to verify some injury reports, but I've been posting some first-look info that seems relevant if employed properly. I was majorly distracted, last week, so mostly tried using the Force. Dark Side, it turned out. I will try scrutiny.
team (W-L/avg. point for-against (strength of schedule) opponent passer rating*) @ team (same)
===TUSH 1/2/3**
* + after for significant improvement over past 3; - after for significant decline over past 3
**Totally Unreliable Spread Handicaps are predictive power rankings for each game from 3 questionable sources (1=teamrankings, 2=espn's fpi, 3=nfelo) --there are likely other, better, predictive team rankings out there but I am just looking for some guidance to see if (or how much) I am out to lunch; these may be helpful in predicting lines but I am skeptical of its predictive power for results; drop word if there are more reliable predictive power rankings available; note: zero adjustment included for home-field advantage on all TUSH (sometimes a hotel is ideal)
=======
NFL week 10
thurs 8:15 Raiders(2-6/16.5-26.2(21)94.9)@Broncos(7-2/25-18.4(19)79.8)
===Den-10.7/-7.9/-7.8
sun 9:30am Falcons(3-5/17.8-22.2(16)88.1-)-Colts(7-2/32.2-20.1(30)87.8)
===Ind-7.7/-8.2/-3.9
sun 1pms:
Browns(2-6/15.7-23(15)98.9+)@Jets(1-7/21-27.6(27)105.7+)
===clev-0.1/NYJ-4.5/NYJ-0.2
Saints(1-8/15.3-27(13)107.2+)@Panthers(5-4/18.9-22.7(24)87.3+)
===Car-5.1/-5/-4.6
Bills(6-2/29.3-20.8(31)84.5+)@Dolphins(2-7/20-27(23)114.4)
===buf-11.8/-8.9/-9.8
Jaguars(5-3/22-23(10)90.0--)@Texans(3-5/21-15.1(1)70.5)
===Hou-5.4/jax-1.5/Hou-3.3
Ravens(3-5/25.2-27(2)99.3+)@Vikings(4-4/22.7-23.2(17)104.7--)
===balt-2.6/-6.5/-5.2
Patriots(7-2/26.3-18.8(32)97.8+)@Buccaneers(6-2/24.6-22.2(4)91.2+)
===TB-1.3/-0.8/-0.7
Giants(2-7/21.8-27.6(8)96.4-)@Bears(5-3/26.9-28.3(28)100.7)
===Chi-3/nyg-1.4/Chi-4.6
4:05 Cardinals(3-5/22.5-21.3(29)84.8)@Seahawks(6-2/28.9-18.7(12)83.6+)
===Sea-5.6/-4/-5.3
4:25 Lions(5-3/29.8-22.2(6)89.7)@Commanders(3-6/22.3-26.2(14)110.7--)
===det-8.1/-7.4/-7.1
4:25 Rams(6-2/26.1-15.8(11)84.0+)@49ers(6-3/21.5-20.9(9)102.5)
===lar-4.9/-1.6/-5.4
8:20 Steelers(5-3/25.2-24.3(20)92.6)@Chargers(6-3/23.8-21.4(26)78.5-)
===LAC-0.7/-3/-1.3
mon 8:15 Eagles(6-2/26-23.1(3)81.7)@Packers(5-2-1/25.7-20.7(25)91.2)
===phil-1.3/-0.1/-0.4
--byes:Chiefs,Titans,Bengals,Cowboys
===
"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime".
More haunting likely to follow.
Good Luck
--late edit as I notice I forgot updated Cardinals record and points for/against; OPR, SOS, and the TUSH fondles are all up to date through full week 9, for what it's worth
2025 NFL: 75-109-3 -966.90 (latest, wk9: 4-22-1 -1322)
--straight: 24-24-2 [sides: 21-22-1 (fave:15-19-1, dog:6-3) totals: 1-0-1 (ov:x-y, un:1-0-1) tt 1-0-0 (over:1-0) player props: 1-2]
--teasers: 39-42-1 [6, 6.5 & 7pts: 14-23, T3/10: 19-16-1, T4/13: 6-3]
--parlays: 12-43
===*===
=======
The good news is that I smoked the dogs last week, going a stellar 1-0. Skipping week 1, the past 8 weeks have seen me with 4 plusses, including one plusgood week, and 4 minuses, including one double-plus shitty one (see above). Still have 90% of my original bankroll, so never mind the bollocks. My imaginary pet goldfish thinks I shouldn't have come out of retirement. Just between you and me, I'd rather learn how to fish than to consume another's sole. Never mind the bollocks.
I'm just waiting for the dust to settle on the trade deadline, as well as to verify some injury reports, but I've been posting some first-look info that seems relevant if employed properly. I was majorly distracted, last week, so mostly tried using the Force. Dark Side, it turned out. I will try scrutiny.
team (W-L/avg. point for-against (strength of schedule) opponent passer rating*) @ team (same)
===TUSH 1/2/3**
* + after for significant improvement over past 3; - after for significant decline over past 3
**Totally Unreliable Spread Handicaps are predictive power rankings for each game from 3 questionable sources (1=teamrankings, 2=espn's fpi, 3=nfelo) --there are likely other, better, predictive team rankings out there but I am just looking for some guidance to see if (or how much) I am out to lunch; these may be helpful in predicting lines but I am skeptical of its predictive power for results; drop word if there are more reliable predictive power rankings available; note: zero adjustment included for home-field advantage on all TUSH (sometimes a hotel is ideal)
=======
NFL week 10
thurs 8:15 Raiders(2-6/16.5-26.2(21)94.9)@Broncos(7-2/25-18.4(19)79.8)
===Den-10.7/-7.9/-7.8
sun 9:30am Falcons(3-5/17.8-22.2(16)88.1-)-Colts(7-2/32.2-20.1(30)87.8)
===Ind-7.7/-8.2/-3.9
sun 1pms:
Browns(2-6/15.7-23(15)98.9+)@Jets(1-7/21-27.6(27)105.7+)
===clev-0.1/NYJ-4.5/NYJ-0.2
Saints(1-8/15.3-27(13)107.2+)@Panthers(5-4/18.9-22.7(24)87.3+)
===Car-5.1/-5/-4.6
Bills(6-2/29.3-20.8(31)84.5+)@Dolphins(2-7/20-27(23)114.4)
===buf-11.8/-8.9/-9.8
Jaguars(5-3/22-23(10)90.0--)@Texans(3-5/21-15.1(1)70.5)
===Hou-5.4/jax-1.5/Hou-3.3
Ravens(3-5/25.2-27(2)99.3+)@Vikings(4-4/22.7-23.2(17)104.7--)
===balt-2.6/-6.5/-5.2
Patriots(7-2/26.3-18.8(32)97.8+)@Buccaneers(6-2/24.6-22.2(4)91.2+)
===TB-1.3/-0.8/-0.7
Giants(2-7/21.8-27.6(8)96.4-)@Bears(5-3/26.9-28.3(28)100.7)
===Chi-3/nyg-1.4/Chi-4.6
4:05 Cardinals(3-5/22.5-21.3(29)84.8)@Seahawks(6-2/28.9-18.7(12)83.6+)
===Sea-5.6/-4/-5.3
4:25 Lions(5-3/29.8-22.2(6)89.7)@Commanders(3-6/22.3-26.2(14)110.7--)
===det-8.1/-7.4/-7.1
4:25 Rams(6-2/26.1-15.8(11)84.0+)@49ers(6-3/21.5-20.9(9)102.5)
===lar-4.9/-1.6/-5.4
8:20 Steelers(5-3/25.2-24.3(20)92.6)@Chargers(6-3/23.8-21.4(26)78.5-)
===LAC-0.7/-3/-1.3
mon 8:15 Eagles(6-2/26-23.1(3)81.7)@Packers(5-2-1/25.7-20.7(25)91.2)
===phil-1.3/-0.1/-0.4
--byes:Chiefs,Titans,Bengals,Cowboys
===
"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime".
More haunting likely to follow.
Good Luck
--late edit as I notice I forgot updated Cardinals record and points for/against; OPR, SOS, and the TUSH fondles are all up to date through full week 9, for what it's worth
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