Week 11 Card (Nov 4th-8th)

[Irish]

Lads it does not get any uglier than last weekend. It was almost enough to make me want to take time off. It was aleast enought to make me think I should not post here anymore for fear that my losers insights were effecting others plays.
I remember wise words said to me as a youngin:
"It's easy to grin, when your ship comes in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man worthwhile, is the man who can smile, when his shorts are too tight in the seat."

Penn St (-7.5) over Iowa
This is a pissed off spot for PSU. To get jumped because you did not play should be enough to get this group up in arms to travel to Iowa and hammer the last remaining tough game (IMO they should smack Mich St). PSU is a very solid ball club that got some much needed rest after the Ohio State win. That game was a dog fight and a tougher place to play than Iowa and they walked out with a 7 point win. Ill beat Iowa with defense alone. Juice Williams was terrible and they had no running game yet they walked away with the win because of defense. Well I like Penn St's defense to do more than Ill. The defense forced three more turnovers, raising their season total to 20. The two interceptions give the Hawkeyes 16 for the season, the most in the Big Ten. I think the PSU offense values the ball more than the teams they have played to date. On the other side, I think Iowa's ball control can be called into question. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi turned the ball over three more times, giving him eight turnovers in five Big Ten games. PSU should commit to stopping the run and they should be able to at least keep Iowa/ GREENE at bay then force Stanzi into those turnover throws. Keep them hurting on offense while the PSU running game takes over. I think the win over Wisky was nice but that was more of a hangover for the badgers that Iowa impressing me. The hawkeyes have beaten noone and they will have their hands full on saturday with what should be a very pissed off penn state squad. The Iowa ball coach has now found out that giving the ball to Greene helps his chances but that will not be enough in this game. PSU shut down Bennie wells they can get to Greene. Iowa is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games but this one comes down to the lions being pissed off and the better team overall. Side not the Under is 5-2 in the past 7 meetings so I can see a low scoring game but enough of the PSU offense to win by double digits keeping Iowa out of the endzone.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Bobmac]

Keep plugging away Irish,You'll turn it around. You're one of the classiest guys on the board.:thumb: I agree with the pick. Are you tired of hearing this BCS bullshit every week.

If Bama, Tech and PSU go undefeated Bama and Tech should play in the Championship game. But I see one or both of these 2 teams losing down the road. It's a joke to listen to these people say an undefeated PSU team doesn't belong in the championship game if Bama or Tech lose.:nono:

My new favorite phrase by these idiots in the media is "the best one loss team in the country":mj07: :142smilie

 

[tulah]

I had the worst week I ever had as a capper last Saturday. I went 1-9 on posted plays , and 0-2
on plays I made while @ the pub.:scared

NFL has kept me alive the last 2 weeks.

Keep your head up and hopefuy we'll get it right
before season's end.:toast:


What do you think about N.D + 3.5?
I think N.D can win SU.

GL this week Irish.

 

[Irish]

Thanks Bobmac, I appreciate the kind words.

Tulah... I would stay away from ND. BC is a better team than Pitt. They are a very good home team. AND I can't even think of one good thing to say about the ND coaches. Letting Pitt run the same play 3 straight times from the 5 yard line to tie the game is a joke. They let McCoy run all over them and never committed the safety to the box daring the back up QB to throw. I mean BC isn't the best but I think they should win by a TD at home against what I saw on saturday. Can they win, sure, but not if that pitt game was an indication of their coaches decision making.

Kansas (-1.5) over Nebraska
This line is very interesting. I cannot think of a positive for Nebraska fans at this point. They are a bad team and predictable on offense. They make mistakes and really pose not threat of stopping teams defensively. Kansas has showed they can play offense, they stink on defense but they have more to offer in resistance than Nebraska. Texas is up next for Kansas but can this jayhawk team really look ahead? So I would think both teams come into this game ready to play. Nebraska's home field advantage is not great in my mind because they really have not been able to protect it so over the past few years people ddo not fear going into that field. Kansas haas the offense to effeciently move the ball and the ability to run on nebraska. I think Ganz is a liability at QB, he has shown in big games to make the mistakes and the inability to lead his team. The cornhuskers are without their best deep threat and the truely strongest option for them is to run the ball but they don't like that style of offense and ever ssince Solich left this team has looked terrible on the offensive side. So you have Reesing, Sharp Briscoe and Meirer going against a defense that has no answer. Kansas will look to score on each posession to make sure this is not a game and I am counting on Nebraska not being able to keep pace. The bootleg option of 5 yard out when run almost every passing play is something Kansas has to jump. Kansas is not a bad team, they got hammered by Texas Tech, but game Oklahoma some what of a game and lost to South Florida when they knew how to play football. Kansas plays good football which will be too much for a nebraska team that got embarassed last week and realizes they are not a good football team. I do not think Bo has a lot of control of this team and they don't repond to him well. Mangino has kids that have bought in and they have the edge in every department except home field. I am very shocked at this line, I think the jawhaks win and so I don't think it will be close enough to make me worry that a point and the hook come to play. Perhaps if this was three or more I might have to think more about it.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

irish....

i'm sure that you will turn it around...good luck

 

[ajoytoy]

lets kill the books this weekend buddy

gl

 

[DoMyDermBest]

Bad Joss. Think you have a solid winner. I chickened out and bought the hook.

 

[DoMyDermBest]

irish....

i'm sure that you will turn it around...good luck

I know this is not your thread AR, but thanks for keeping me off the Rainbows last weekend!

 

[Irish]

AR, Toy, and DoMyDermBest... thanks guys apperciate the kind words!

Alabama (-3) over LSU
Yes LSU has the home field advantage but Bama has the advantage on the field. Alabama is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 against LSU but that is a little off because LSU is 5-0 straight up in the last 5 games against Bama. So looking at this you have to see bama has not been the fav in the last 5 match ups. This game comes down to the Bama line being able to keep Parker off the turf. I have to think if Georgia was able to hold LSU at bay on the offensive line then the tide should be able to do the same. Good teams have really been too much for LSU this season considering they were manhandled by Florida and Geogia. Honestly I thought So.Carolina should have won the game against LSU but they were able to pull it out as they did against Auburn. This LSU team does not have the offensive line to stop Bamas defensive pressure and the QB has shown he will make BIG mistakes when under pressure. Considering Alabama beat Georgia pretty easily I think they are a better team than LSU. I think a good idea of what will happen is the Tennessee game. I think LSU will struggle to run the ball up the middle with their big smashing back and will have to turn to the speed outside and thats where the LB's for Bama come into play. Bama is well coached and misques for LSU will cost them in this huge game. In the Tenn/ala game the tide did not crush the vols, they were not extremely effective on third down but they were able to establish the run and pass on a defense that was just on their heels. This ability to mix run and pass should keep LSU in trouble as well. I do not see Lee being good enough to win this game and they will have to be perfect if they want to keep it even close. QB Jarrett Lee was only 8-of-20 passing and had an interception returned for a touchdown for the fifth time this season. Lee has thrown 10 interceptions on the year. This game comes down to the players on the field and not the location of the field. Alabama has the edge and even though I think this will be a good game Bama has edge and should prove too much on both sides of the ball.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Miami OH (+8.5) over Buffalo
I like Buffalo because they have a very good leader and a team playing good football right now. Still that being said the redhawks are able to stay with them in this game. The only thing that has hurt Miami OH is Miami OH. So what the hawks have to do is turn the ball over to the youth movement. That starts with JR Taylor at Tailback and Clay Belton at QB. In limited action Taylor has looked very impressive. Belton has played well but is still green and needs some time under center before he is the hawks answer. Even though this young group turned the ball over way too much against Kent St they should be able to keep it tonight against a good but not great defense. The Bulls entered the game ranked 10th in the MAC in rushing at 114.7 yards a game. But with Wiley at QB they have the option to throw when they chose because this kid is a gamer. Still he has to face a pretty good defense tonight. Miami still ranks third in the MAC in total defense, allowing 344.2 yards of offense per game. Buffalo has 4 wins on the season and they only got DD winning margin twice in those games and if you look a lot of those wins and loses are pretty close from the win against Army to the loss against C.Michigan. Look at the MAC, with all the teams hanging out at 2-2 a win tonight could keep Miami alive in this conference. So you have to think both teams want to play hard and that could mean a close game if Miami keeps from beating themselves. I know not too many teams in the MAC look ahead especially with 2-2 being the world beater in the division but a big game for Buffalo at Akron next week could be a look ahead spot. The bulls at home are tough but remember this is a team that was in 4 out of the last six coming down to the fourth quarter. I think the redhawks have a decent running attack and a defense to keep them in this game.

EDIT: another fact is 94% is on Buff to win, 88% of the action is on Buff ATS.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Another LOSER on the books last night.

Ball St (-9) over N.Ill
This is a huge test for ball state but I have to give them credit for being the better team in this game. They have the home field and should be ready to show the national TV views they are for real. The Cardinals have scored 32-of-36 times in the Red Zone this year, including 25 touchdowns and seven field goals. Ball State?s Red Zone Offense ties for 20th in the nation with a .890 percentage. Ball State is tied for seventh in the country in third down conversion percentage, having converted on 43-of-84 third downs this season for a .512 mark. Ball State has won all eight of its games this season by double-digit margins. The closest an opponent has come to the Cardinals was the 12-point, 35-23 Ball State win over Navy. Ball State has won its eight games by an average of 22.0 points per contest. Ball State?s defense has allowed 20 points or fewer in five straight games and six times this season. Better offense, better defense, homefield and something to prove should have the cards moving the ball and scoring more than N.Ill.

Toledo (+6.5) over Akron
The zips sit in first place at 2-2 while Toledo is not out of the race but they need to finish very strong. To finish strong would be the gift the players want to give the coach. "I think Coach Amstutz is a great guy and he has done a lot for us since I have been here," said junior QB Aaron Opelt. "I think the best thing that we can do for him is to go out there and finish off the season strong, end his time here on a positive note.? Toledo leads the series, 8-7, and is 6-1 since the Zips joined the MAC in 1992. This could come down to if Akron get the turnover they need to stay in the game. Akron?s 14 fumble recoveries ties for the national lead. The Zips have created 20 turnovers (14 fumbles and six interceptions) to rank 10th in the NCAA and first in the MAC. The Zips are second in the MAC and 26th nationally in turnover margin (+.75). (The Zips?, who have only fumbled four times ? 15th-best in the NCAA, turnover margin would be even better had UA not committed five turnovers. I do not think they win the turnover battle. Toledo is looking to send the coach out on a good note, they can easily win this game if they decide to execute (after all they did go into the big house and beat Michigan) and Akron ranks last in the MAC in total defense, allowing 405.5 yards per game.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Virginia Tech (-3) over Maryland
Many moons have passed since the hokies were one of the hardest teams to play on thursday night at home. The will need more than fear to beat Maryland tonight. Maryland has gotten back on track the last two games after going scoreless at Virginia (10/4). The Terps are second in the ACC in total offense (366.6 ypg) and have averaged a league-best 6.0 yards per play. Junior Chris Turner, the second-rated passer in the ACC, is averaging 178.5 passing yards pg, while sophomore Da'Rel Scott leads the ACC and ranks 26th nationally in rushing (102.6 ypg). So the hokies defense needs to impress a little more tonight considering they have not been the playmaking defense of years past. A nice bye week for VT should allow them to get healthy and get the players on the same page for tonights game. This is still a danerous hokie team when they want to be. Virginia Tech, which has been ranked as high as No. 17 in the AP poll this season, has an average margin of defeat of just 6.7 points in its three losses. The big question is who is the guy under center for VT is it Holt or (god help us all) Glennon. I think we will see both but Glennon for some reason looks better in this offense at time than any of the QB's they have. He also plays very well at home and if they have problems moving the ball with a converted WR then Glennon can take over and do well enough. He has a hurt ankle.... this means nothing to me as he is the least fleet footed QB ever to play. I think he as nimble as Joe Thiesman would have been if he came back in after the LT hit. Maryland has allowed more than 30 points just once this season and ranks No. 31 nationally in scoring defense (19.3 ppg). The Terps are 34th nationally in sacks (2.3 pg) and 58th against the run (137.3 ypg). I hate the play calling from VT, I am not sold on their QB, the have issues running the ball AND they have no weapons at WR... but I like the defensive Co to bring a ton of heat and the crowd to get the boys playing with a lot of energy.

TCU (-2) over Utah
Utah, yes they are a good football team but are they the better team or the higher ranking one? TCU has played the big boys and beaten BYU handedly. Utah sqeeked out a win aginst Mich, the lucked away with another against Oregon State and it took everything they had against New Mexcio. So they have beaten the teams they should have and won some against teams having what I would say is a down year. Thursday's game features two of the nation's best defenses. TCU (214.5 ypg) and Utah (266.2 ypg) are ranked No. 2 and No. 7 in the nation, respectively, and are 1-2 in the MWC. TCU is No. 3 nationally in scoring defense (10.8) while Utah ranks 18th (17.7). Utah leads the series with TCU 4-1 and is 2-0 against the Horned Frogs in Salt Lake City. But is history enough for Utah and it's fans in this game? Honestly look at those defnsive numbers for Utah and think they came against Michigan, New Mexico, Utah St, Wyoming and a host of other poor offensive teams that put up twenty plus on them. TCU is the same way but the diffences are the games against BYU and Oklahoma. TCU has played the same level of talent Utah has seen in the Mountain West but they have posted against the good teams out of conference. They have a better defense IMO, after all it held Oklahoma to 35 and thats saying something. Oh it held BYU to season lows but I do not think they are a very efficent team. So this leave home field, which if you are a mountain goat or site see'r would be very distracting. It is a tough place to play but not extremly hard. After all Oregon State who is not a very good road team at all went in and moved the ball. TCU tops the nation in run defense at 38.9 yards per game. Alabama is second at 65.6. The Frogs top the MWC and are fifth nationally in pass efficiency defense (96.2). Quarterbacks complete just 48.3 percent of their passes against TCU with 14 interceptions and seven touchdowns. TCU is seventh nationally in opponent third-down conversions, allowing a 28.9 percent success rate. UNLV was 1-of-11. TCU moves the chains and puts points on the board while the defense of TCU makes it very hard for Johnson to follow suit and the team speed of the TCU defense will show that even though Utah has a good defense, TCU is better. This should be a good game and home field should keep Utah involved but it is not enough as TCU preforms better because they are the better team.

ALSO
NFL
Cleveland (-3) over Denver
Marshall walking off the field angry with his QB last week. Pittman hurt will slightly damage the running productivity AND the defense looks like an episode of band of brothers. One player goes down about every 10 mins. They are starting the game with holes and tonight cleveland at home behind Brady Quinn should be enough to get this done. I think Denver is the better team but I think emotion plays a lot into football and right now Quinn energizes Cleveland and the broncos are searching for answers.

Cheers
Irish

 

[rubiconed]

GL Tonight Irish !!! Let's get 'em Tonight !!! :toast:

 

[AR182]

I know this is not your thread AR, but thanks for keeping me off the Rainbows last weekend!

my pleasure dmdb.....glad i could help...

 

[Irish]

Oklahoma State (+3) over Texas Tech
For the third time this season, and the third time in five weeks, Oklahoma State will be on the road to face a top-five opponent. OSU was a 28-23 winner at No. 3 Missouri on Oct. 11. Two weeks later, the Cowboys lost at No. 1 Texas, 28-24. Oklahoma State is the first team this season to face three top-five opponents on the road. Oklahoma State is ranked No. 8 in this week?s Associated Press poll. The Cowboys are in the top 10 for a fourth consecutive week for the first time since the 1985 season when OSU spent four weeks in the top 10 in September and October. The Cowboys have not been a member of the AP top 10 for five straight weeks since 1984 when OSU was a fixture for the last seven polls (including the final poll). Texas Tech is one of the nation?s last unbeaten teams as the Red Raiders enter the Oklahoma State game with a perfect 9-0 record. Tech leads the nation in passing offense (424.5 yards per game), is second in total offense (559.3 yards per game) and third in scoring (47.0 per game). Texas Tech?s defense is No. 10 nationally against the run and No. 10 in turnover margin (+1.11 per game). Tech quarterback Graham Harrell leads the nation in total offense (402 yards per game). What this game comes down to is Oklahoma State has nothing to lose and the pressure is on Texas Tech and this is a situation that has normally hurt Texas Tech. Texas started moving the ball late in the game and the running game was what helped spark the longhorn offense. The running ability of Robinson should help the cowboys run away from the pressure Texas Tech will attempt to get with its defensive front. Also Kendall Hunter is a very good back when it comes to setting up his blocks and find the seem to bust into the second level. This ability to run and throw should present problems for a Texas Tech defense that cannot match the intensity of last week. The secondary cannot give the talent of Okie St's WR too much space because they are very good and can make plays and that opens it up for the running game. This should look a lot like an oklahoma Texas game where each team will have to score and hope to get a few stops from the defense to get ahead. I think emotion should favor the cowboys because everyone is talking about what a huge game last week was and few realize Oklahoma state is playing VERY good football. This should be a good game if you like offense but I think Okie state wins this game outright but the points are a nice safety blanket. OSU won last year's meeting in Stillwater in a shootout, 49-45, in a game that came down to the final drive. Tech has won eight of the 11 meetings overall. Since last season both teams have gotten better but I think Ojie has improved a bit more.


Arizona State (-14) over Washington
What does washington have to play for? Almost as much as Arizona State so you have to think resolve wins this game and that is going the side of ASU with a senior QB and reasons to get players playing time and confidence to help their inexperience. I bellieve this is a game where ASU just out plays a dead Washington team that could not manage getting the ball over midfield against Notre Dame and also the secondary is so bad the passing attack of ASU should have big plays work all day. I also think with no coaching staff in place Washington might have no gameplan inorder coming into this game. They lack leadership, they don't have their best playmaker and they just don't have the desire to play.

Oregon (-13) over Stanford
The Ducks have won the past three meetings at Autzen Stadium. UO has scored no fewer than 44 points in any of its past three games against Stanford. The Ducks are averaging 192.2 yards passing in their 6 wins compared to 166.7 in their 3 losses. ?On defense, we just had to do a little better job in our pass coverage,? Bellotti said as California converted seven of 19 of its third-down opportunities into first downs, including six of 12 third-down conversions in the first half. He added that the Ducks may have to look at changes in personnel, schemes and execution in the coming weeks in order to improve the team?s offensive balance. This is key because both teams run the ball well and both teams can stop the run. Oregon and Stanford rank first and second in the Pac-10 in rushing offense (270.7-yard avg., and 209.2 avg., respectively), as well as second and third in the league against the run (106.4 avg., and 106.6 avg.). Adding Roper into the game might be enough of a passing spark to get the ducks moving the ball and turning it into points. Considering how poorly the ducks played last week, considering they are at home where they play extremely well and considering they are getting healthy at QB which will help the passing game the ducks should look to rebound off the Cal loss and turn it on against the one dimensional Stanford team. Chung will have to be the play maker, get him in the box to shadow the stanford runningbacks.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Blackman]

Took a beating last week as well, don't sweat it, we'll get it back this week.

On Penn State think it's a strong one. Best of luck and thanks for the info.

 

[ryanmcgwyer]

Obama over LSu

Obama over LSu

Love the write up and play Irish. Obama is my biggest play ever! Obama didnt win Louisiana but Bama will

 

[Irish]

Not a lot of time for write ups, taking the lad to the park for a little energy wasting session before games begin.

UNC (-4) over Georgia Tech
Home field advantage will be pretty big in this game. The Heels allow just 113 yards a game on the ground, and have had two weeks to prepare to defend the option. Plus, QB Josh Nesbitt left last week?s game with an injured foot, which could propel true freshman Jaybo Shaw into the starting lineup. This will be a nice defensive battle for both teams but I like the speed of UNC to get to the GT option game. I think UNC extra time should allow ssome guys to get healthy and they should be fresh and able to move the ball at home where they play well.

Oregon State (-7.5) over UCLA
Oregon State struggles at UCLA over the past years. The money trend is on the bruins pretty hard right now. The Oregon St defense needs to be sharp because they can render UCLA offenseless if they come to play. I think Org St should have the offensse moving better this week and even though Oregon State isn't great they still have the edge in talant and they need to get on top to take the life out of UCLA.

N'Western (+11) over Ohio State
Again the money trend is all on Ohio St. N'Western is a gritty team and they do have a little home field advantage in this contest. Kafka can run the ball and he will need to be the difference makers. Ohio state is a good defense but N'Westerns spread offense and misdirection should keep them guessing just enough to make some plays. They do not have to be outstanding to stay within this number because OSU offense has not been lighting up the scoreboard this season.

Florida State (-4) over Clemson
Home field and a team on the up verse a team holding on. FSU has the speed to bottle up the Clemson ground game. Take that away and Clemson is in trouble. Thats what the noles will do today and with his son their Bobby will have no mercey if it starts to get out of hand. Plus after the way it went down, I wouldn't be surprised if the son gave the old man a few tips.

BC (-3.5) over Notre Dame
Notre dame is over valued and overrated and I like the Irish. They were exposed last week against a Pitt team that is run and run only. They used the same play 3 times inoreder to level the score in the fourth and ND did not cover it once. BC has the talent at QB to pick their soft coverage alive and the BC LB's should be all over the Irish at home. ND isn't the best road team and all the money is on the irish yet the line has not budged.

Wake (-3.5) over UVA
Money on UVA because of their solid play over the past few weeks but this is a big game for Wake. UVA keeps games close and that allows them to stay in the game of get ahead. Wake will be too much offensively and after the scare against Duke they should be more focused in this game. They shut down the engines a little too quickly last week and I cannot see them doing that again.

So Miss (-3) over C.Florida
Sole reason for this play is line movement and short week for C.Fla. The money is 90% on C.Florida yet the line has moved from S.Miss -1 to s.miss -3. gotta think on the side of the book here.

Duke (-3.5) over NC St
Duke is a fiest team and they will bring that sprit to the wolfpack. The ACC is a battle field and any given day a team can win or lose but I think Duke is playing a little better than the wolfpack and because they have the home field they will be able to generate points and stops. PLUS the coach came out and said he is staying so the kids have the warm and fuzzies so you think they come out fired up.

Sorry about the lack of details but gotta hit the jungle gym, slides and swings!

Cheers
Irish

 

[spang]

Just curious as to what part of Ohio do you reside?

Good luck this week, you work hard on your analysis and will turn it around.

 

[Irish]

Spang,
about 2 hours east of Columbus more toward the WV boarder. If you are in the North East I would say about 21/2 or 2 hours from you.

Thanks for the kind words. Good luck to you too.

Cheers
Irish