Week 11 Card (Nov 7th-11th)

[Irish]

Grabbing this Early
Arkansas (-5.5) over Tenn
Off an extremely emotional loss last week, going away from home where the Vols have struggled. Having about 10 players involved in a sunday night club altercation. Three players booked on the fight including some starters. AND according to police reports and video the players were fighting THEMSELVES! Razorbacks lead the conference with more than 235 yards a game. The attack is led by two of the SEC's top four rushers in sophomores Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. In Nutt's opinion, though, the team needs to have success through the air as well, something it has struggled with this season. This is one of the reasons Nutt has decided to go with Dick at QB, he has experience and McFadden givens him needed time to throw the ball accurately. McFadden continues to lead the SEC with 1,038 rushing yards after rushing for 1,113 last season as a freshman. This running game will also open up the pass which is good for Monk who is a threat to break a big play when needed. Dick struggled early this season but was banged up, having the true freshman get in there has not only given Ark some experience at QB but also give the razorbacks time to get healthy. Healthy something Tenn is not and with the players infighting this spells trouble for Fulmer because he is not a good coach and will have a tough time getting his players back from all these issues. Plus put in True freshman Compton on the road and that may make it even tougher for the Vols to stay in this game. Yes Compton played well but mainly because the LSU secondary did not and one long TD pass was RIGHT through the hads of the LSU All-American safety. This is going to be a big game but I just don't think the Vols have the defense to stop the run and the offense to keep up. Add the home field advantage for Arkansas and Tenn players fighting each other and I would think this line may move up a bit.

Cheers
Irish

 

[ajoytoy]

gl Irish...will be on it with you

 

[Irish]

Toledo (+12.5) over No. Ill
Although Northern Illinois has fielded a competitive team this year, they are a dismal 2-6 ATS including 0-3 ATS at home. The Huskies are also an unimpressive 1-5 ATS as favorites and 1-4 ATS versus conference opponents. On the road, Toledo's offense has struggled this season, only averaging 16.6 PPG. In their last ten meetings, Toledo is 9-1 straight up versus Northern Illinois. With the Rockets dominance over the Huskies in recent years, it is a bit surprising that over 70% of the early action is on Northern Illinois. The Rockets finally got the offense moving a little bit last week in the win over Akron, while the defense played one of its tightest games of the season. If they can figure out how keep the scoring going and can get the linebackers to come up with a steady, disciplined performance against Garrett Wolfe and the running game, then the secondary, one of the team's strengths could play very well against the huskie pass. The Toledo secondary is tough but lately has suddenly started to struggle a bit. Oddly enough, it hasn't given up any touchdowns through the air over the last two games, but it's giving up yards in bunches. If NIU can get a little bit of passing going early, Wolfe should get a little bit of room to move. As long as the Rocket linebackers have to deal with Phil Horvath and the short passing game, NIU should be able to move the ball at will. On the other side of the ball, can Toledo take advantage of NIU's biggest weakness? Probably not. NIU is last in the MAC in pass efficiency defense, while Toledo is last in the league in pass efficiency. This will be a chance for Wolfe and company to showcase but they have some tough teams coming up and Toledo can hang it all out tonight. I expect the toledo coach to be even more aggressive if that is possible and the rockets have the chance to win but IMO the keep it close.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Toledo/No.Ill UNDER (24) 2nd half

Garrett Wolfe is questionable, the fog and both teams going to fight each other in this contest. PI will be a big call in this game if the fog doesn't lift but I am thinking with halftime adjustment both teams tighten up a bit, even though that is not in Toledos nature.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Marra]

So you like the Nutt/Dick combo, Irish?

Sorry, I had to. :shrug:

 

[Irish]

Rutgers (+7) over Louisville
Last week showed that the Cardinal offense can play on a completely different level when QB Brian Brohm is healthy. In his third game back from thumb surgery, he threw for 354 yards on just 19 completions. Scarlet Knight corners?each 5-11 or shorter?will struggle to contain 6-6 Mario Urrutia and Harry Douglas, the Big East?s top two receivers. The Scarlet Knights will need offensive balance to beat this Louisville team, but won?t get it from QB Mike Teel, who?s thrown more picks than touchdowns in 2006 and has yet to face the kind of pressure he?ll see from the speedy Cardinal D. Remember the WVU running game made a LOT of noise last week and turnovers were a big part of the reason WVU lost. Isn?t this essentially the same Louisville team that struggled with Cincinnati and Syracuse just a few weeks ago? West Virginia showed last week that you can pound the ball on Louisville, even without the threat of a prolific passing game. The Mountaineers ran for 318 yards, which is exactly what Ray Rice and the nation?s 12th-ranked ground game will try to do in order to keep Brohm & Co. off the field. Yes, this is the best offense the Scarlet Knights defense has faced this fall, but they?ll be up to the challenge. Rutgers creates tremendous pressure on quarterbacks, has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game and boasts the No. 2 pass defense in America. They?ll be in Brohm?s grill all night, forcing Louisville to lean more on a running game that?s been up and down all year. The WVU defense is a JOKE and I do not see the Rutgers defense at home playing as badly as WVU. Louisville did not impress me enough defensively to earn them spotting 7 on the road to a VERY hungry Rutgers team. The knights have a very good line, solid WR group very good TE and a Great pair of running back. They have a motivated coach that will be all about defense tonight. The home crowd should be in full effect. While Rutgers is well rested, the Cardinals must hit the road a week after winning one of its most emotional games in school history. This is a huge game for Rutgers to prove if they belong. Louisville might have thought that was last weeks game a really not get as hyped up. I predict the Rutgers running game gets it moving but they will ne big efforts in the passing and defense departments. IMO they can play Louisville tough on defense because Louisville has YET to see a decent defense. I think considering they are home the Knights could win this game but I'll take a TD in this game. Ball security is big tonight and I don't see Rutgers giveing away long thrid down plays like WVU.

Nutt/Dick... tools used to score!:SIB

Cheers
Irish

 

[Shifty Mac]

crap

crap

normally love ur plays Irish, and i roll with you alot, however, i am against you this time, i jumped on Louis. EARLY AT -6... i'll take a louisville win by 7...

 

[AR182]

good luck this week irish...

 

[Irish]

Thanks AR

MAC
Should be a good game but I am not sure the cards have played a decent defense. Rutgers have not played IMO a very good offense but they have played a few decent teams. I have talked with a few people about this game and they all think it could go either way. I am just thinking Louisville is not as good of a team with Bromh and no Bush away from home. Thanks for the good words, hope I can help you in the future and good luck with your plays.

Cheers
Irish

 

[tulah]

I like Arkansas also.
GL with your plays.

 

[wy1984]

Im against you in the Rutgers play, but I think that Arkansas bet looks good, that team really can play.

Gl to u as always
Wy

 

[Irish]

Small play Rutgers/Louisville UNDER (51)
Looking for the running game of the knights to eat some clock. And even though the Cards have a good offense the knight defense can hold them from breaking huge plays and cause some 3 and outs.

Cheers
Irish

 

[bert07]

nice to see you on RU and the under

thanks
GL

As long as Teel does not sh*t the bed like WVA did giving it away I think we can cover

 

[trolln4walii]

Nice calls on the Toledo game Irish. I'm with you on the Razorbacks Saturday :mj06:

 

[Shifty Mac]

good luck tonight irish, i know we're different on the lu/rutgers game, but hopefully u jumped on BYU with me, jumped on toledo with u las night, though and thought about it, everyone has no ill, but i read ur posts and i loved getting 13 with my guy

 

[Shifty Mac]

nice bet irish, really thought lu would come out and fire away, they came out, fired away, and hit alot of 1st half targets, too bad college football is 4 quarters, not 2...oh well, byu helped pretty well

 

[Irish]

UTEP (+2) over UAB
UAB hasn?t been able to contain decent passing offenses since league play hit full swing in October. Memphis and Rice pierced the Blazer secondary for three touchdown passes in consecutive weeks, a precursor of what will happen Friday night. Of all the troubles the Miners are having, throwing the ball is not one of them. The nation?s 11th-ranked passing attack is enduring fewer turnovers from QB Jordan Palmer and an All-American-caliber season from WR Johnnie Lee Higgins. The Miners have allowed more than 30 points in three straight games and were ripped for 471 yards by Rice last weekend. They haven?t stopped anyone in 2006, which means it?ll be a good night for versatile UAB QBs Chris Williams and Sam Hunt, both of whom will play. Palmer and Higgins will provide the senior leadership and big plays, hooking up for three touchdowns in a critical win for the Miners. Both teams are not playing their best football but in this game I would think talent and coaching can win the contest and that give UTEP the advantage. The miners have zero defense but the blazers have not burnt the scoreboard of late. Palmer needs to watch turnovers but he should have Higgens open ALL night. Would be nice to see the miners get ANY form of a running game. UTEP is in a down year but I do not think the blazers have the type of home field advantage that will make the difference. UAB gets help because they have had some time off and gotten a few players back but I am still not sold on that team. I like the miners to win this game but I'll take the 2 points.

Funny about last night.... Blocked FG means -2 points, resulting in Rutgers not having to go for a 2 point conversion. Totals 3 points on the board... subtract that from the 53 total in the game and my total play has legs.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Nevada (-30) over Utah St
Although the Aggies gave up 63 points to Hawaii last week, the offense dominated time of possession holding it for nearly 37 minutes. Do that this week against a team with a less potent offense, and the Aggies have a chance to win as long as it?s not getting bombed on for quick strikes. Ultimately, the key to making this interesting rests on the shoulders of freshman QB Riley Nelson, who?s been an immediate boost to an offense averaging just over 200 yards per game before, and now cranks out 258 yards per game. However, the Aggie defense was absolutely torched by a Hawaii offense that needed only 51 plays and scored nine touchdowns ? nearly once every five plays. Nevada?s offense doesn?t pile up points quite that fast, but it can still move the ball with tremendous efficiency. Since the Hawaii game, Nevada has registered more than 400 yards of total offense and averaged 37.5 points per game. Nevada receiver Caleb Spencer ended his season long ?no touchdown? streak two weeks ago, and now has one in each of his last two games. With Hawaii scoring seven touchdowns last week through the air against the Aggies, expect Spencer to hit pay dirt a couple of times. The Nevada offense has started to play well of late and they get an aggie team that has just about zero defense. Yes they hold the ball for a while against teams but against passing teams they have gotten torched. Hawaii last week, BYU and Wyoming have all whacked the aggies. Rowe at home, with a balenced offense and a team that is going through a tough patch.

Hawaii (-38.5) over La Tech
QB Zac Champion has a long way to go to unseat Hawaii?s Colt Brennan atop the WAC passing stat ladder, but he had a Brennan-worthy game against North Texas completing 23 of 34 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns. Most importantly, he didn?t turn the ball over and didn?t put his defense in a tough spot against the Mean Green. For as much as the Hawaii offense throws the football, the pass defense has mega-problems with teams needing to bomb away to keep up the pace. Champion should be able to move the ball effectively through the air, but Tech has no hope of keeping up the pace with a Hawaii passing game averaging 429 yards per game and an offense averaging 534 yards and 47 points per game. Brennan is on pace for 5,200 yards and 60 touchdowns. Brennans numbers are EXTREMELY odd but he should have a lot of sucess against the poor bulldog defense. This is a ton of chalk but at home the warriors play a lot better, mix that in with the fact Coach Jones came out about the lack of respect given to warriors should mean they are going to try to get respect this weekend. Jones will run it up and with the time difference the La Tech defense will be spent by second half. Too much for La Tech and I'll spot the large amount considering this will be a good pissed off hawaii team at home.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

C. Mich (-6) over W. Mich
The veteran Bronco passer should be able to chuck for at least 250 yards against a lousy CMU corners. He's thrown for 200 yards or more in four of the last five games spreading it around extremely well. Cubit won't have to bomb away and won't have to take too many chances, he'll just have to be efficient and limit his mistakes. The Broncos lead the nation in turnover margin. However, Western Michigan might have a balanced offense and has been effective through the air, but it all stems from controlling things on the ground. What can help combat Ameer Ismail and the fearsome Bronco pass rush? The mobility of QB Dan LeFevour, who should be able to buy a little more time than most of the statue passers he's teed off on lately. LeFevour has emerged as the MAC's newest superstar showing that he's not just a runner over the last five games with 13 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Part of the reason for the improvement has been the reemergence of RB Ontario Sneed, who was one of the league's biggest disappointments over the first half of the year but turned it on over the last two weeks rushing for 261 yards averaging 13 yards a crack. This is a classic offense vs. defense showdown between bitter rivals. Central Michigan is 1st in the Mid-American Conference in scoring and total offense, and Western Michigan is 1st in the league in total defense, rushing defense and turnovers forced. Western Michigan specializes in taking away the ball. It leads the league in turnovers forced (26) and interceptions made (20). The Chippewas have been the most consistent team in the MAC this season, and they appear to be playing at their highest level coming down the stretch. The Chippewas are beginning to add balance with the running game behind improved play of TB Ontario Sneed. The Chippewas had allowed an average of just 13.7 points per game in a three-game stretch, but gave up 26 to Temple Nov. 4. Central Michigan must tighten up on defense against Western Michigan. The Broncos' balanced offense doesn't make many mistakes. The rivalry might be the fiercest in the MAC. But it's been one-sided in games at Central Michigan, where the Broncos have lost 13 times and tied once in the past 15 meetings. IMO The Chipps have the better offense and the defensive stats for W. Mich are bit blow up. Tonight will be a very good game but I like the ability of the Chipps offense and defense playing at home.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Shifty Mac]

kind of late but looked at the games last nite after LU f'd me and i liked both ur plays, like c michigan -6 and utep +1.5, tried to wait on utep to get more points, nice write ups irish.... think we are good on c michigan