Week 11 Info

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NFL Week 11's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 11's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 11's biggest betting mismatches


Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5, 42.5)

Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Buffalo's rush defense

Jones-Drew enters this matchup as the fifth-leading rusher in the NFL. He has averaged 133 yards over his last four games with seven touchdown runs for the Jaguars.

While Buffalo defensive coordinator Perry Fewell is now the interim head coach after the firing of Dick Jauron, he is working with a banged-up stop unit that is last in the NFL in rushing defense. No less than six key defenders, including DT Marcus Stroud and S Donte Whitner, could miss the game due to injuries.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 42)

Green Bay's third-down units vs. San Francisco's third-down units

The Packers are ninth in the NFL in offensive third-down conversion percentage while ranking second in the league in third-down conversion percentage on defense. Green Bay is 4-1 SU and ATS against losing foes this season with the help of its ability to control third-downs against weaker foes.

The 4-5 49ers are in the bottom eight in the league in third-down conversion percentage on both sides of the ball this season. While QB Alex Smith has shown some improvement in 2009, he is still a work in progress at this point in his development. With CB Nate Clements out and LB Takeo Spikes doubtful for Sunday's contest due to injuries, the defense won't be at full strength against the Packers.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (+1.5, 44.5)

Baltimore's rush defense vs. Indianapolis rush offense

The Ravens are fifth in the NFL in rushing defense. Veteran linebacker Ray Lewis still has something left in the tank. He is fifth in the league in solo tackles with 58.

Indianapolis is 29th in the league in rushing offense. Top draft choice Donald Brown has been limited to only 50 carries due to injuries while starter Joseph Addai is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry for the second straight year.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5, 45)

New England's pass defense vs. Mark Sanchez

Despite last week's fourth quarter collapse at Indianapolis, the Patriots are seventh in the NFL in passing defense. The unit has been eagerly awaiting another chance to face Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets since a 16-9 defeat at Giants Stadium in Week 2.

The rookie signal-caller is 26th in the league in quarterback rating. He completed a season-high 63.6 percent of his 22 passes in the first meeting with the Pats without an interception. However, Sanchez has been limited to four touchdown passes with ten interceptions during New York's current 1-5 slide.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4.5, 48)

Houston's pass offense vs. Tennessee's pass defense

The Texans are third in the NFL in passing offense. In a 34-31 win at Nashville in Week 2, quarterback Matt Schaub (357 yards, four TD passes) and wideout Andre Johnson (10 receptions, 149 yards) had a field day against the Titans secondary.

Tennessee has come to life with three straight wins but the club is still vulnerable through the air with the next to last passing defense in the NFL. With the Texans coming off of a bye to face the team formerly know as the Houston Oilers on a Monday night at home, there is little doubt that the Titans will get Houston's best shot in this AFC South battle.

 

[Cie]

Thanks for your contributions

 

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Top 5 Trends
NO
TB Under is 7-0 in NO last 7 games in Week 11.

NYJ
NE Over is 6-0-1 in NYJ last 7 games in November.

CIN
OAK Under is 7-0 in CIN last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

PHI
CHI Over is 7-0 in PHI last 7 games following a ATS loss.

ATL
NYG Under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.

 

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NFL prop shop: L.T. back to his old self

NFL prop shop: L.T. back to his old self

NFL prop shop: L.T. back to his old self

Most rushing yards

LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego Chargers) vs. Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos)

After being held down for the first eight games this season, LaDanian Tomlinson looked like the L.T. of old, running for 96 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries last Sunday.

Darren Sproles hasn?t made much of an impact on the ground this season. Norv Turner has been using him more effectively in the passing game. That opens up additional carries for Tomlinson.

Note that the Broncos defense has really struggled against the run over the last few weeks, allowing 157.3 rush yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush. Those numbers are significantly higher than their season averages.

Knowshon Moreno ran for 98 yards last week, but had been held to just 86 combined rush yards over his previous three games. He earned a lot more carries in Weeks 3 to 6 than he?s getting now.

Take: Tomlinson

Most passing yards

Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) vs. Eli Manning (New York Giants)

Matt Ryan has seen a major drop off in production since his rookie season. In 2008, Ryan threw for an average of 7.9 yards per pass play. This year, that number has dropped to 6.7.

Ryan started the season by throwing seven touchdowns and just two interceptions through his first four games. Since that time, he has thrown another seven touchdowns, but has also been picked off 10 times.

Eli Manning and the Giants offense have an added advantage with an extra week to prepare for the Falcons defense. Manning?s yards per pass rose to 7.5 from 6.8 a year ago. I look for a big bounce-back game for him against a banged-up Falcons secondary.

Atlanta has given up over 220 pass yards per game on 7.9 yards per pass play over its last three games. It?s hard to envision any sort of turnaround against what should be a focused Eli Manning.

Take: Manning

Most pass receptions

Santana Moss (Washington Redskins) vs. Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys)

Miles Austin isn?t playing nearly as prominent a role in the Cowboys offense as he did earlier this season.

Since hauling in 21 passes from Weeks 5 through 8, Austin has made only five in the last two games. Maybe that shouldn?t come as much of a surprise. Over his first four games this season, Austin recorded only five catches. In the first two years of his career he had only 18.

Ever since a big second half in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, the Redskins pass offense has found some rhythm. The production hasn?t come from Santana Moss, but I think it?s only a matter of time before he gets involved.

Last year, Moss had his best game in Dallas, hauling in eight catches for 145 yards. While that type of performance would be nice this Sunday, I?m thinking that five or six receptions probably cashes our ticket.

Take: Moss

Most sacks

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

I?m expecting the Packers defense to have a little more jump in its step following that dominating performance against the Cowboys last week.

They sacked Cowboys QB Tony Romo five times in the 17-7 victory after recording only one in their previous two games combined. Niners QB Alex Smith has already been dropped seven times in three starts this season.

Aaron Rodgers takes a lot of flak for holding onto the ball too long and a lot of it is deserved. However, I think he can stay upright against a 49ers defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in sacks, with just 17 on the season.

The underdog price is what clinches this play for me. The Packers need a big performance before hitting the road for four of their final six games. They?ll find their way into the backfield early and often Sunday.

Take: Green Bay

 

[Lumi]

FROM SOME..... :shrug: SITE I GO TO :00hour

NFL FOOTBALL (48-28-1 this season for a net profit of 17.3 units)
*Bills +9 vs. Jaguars...Jags shouldn't be favored by this much over anyone (see two weeks ago vs. Chiefs)
Chiefs +10 vs. Steelers...we're still seeing inflated lines even with dogs barking lately
*Ravens +1.5 vs. Colts...I like Colts moving to favoritism earlier in week...up to +2 at Mirage, so wait
Falcons +7 vs. Giants...we got the +7 we wanted...Turner out but so is Pierce
*49ers +6.5 vs. Packers...not sure we'll get 7 here, but will still play as this should be low-scoring tight game
*Seahawks +11 vs. Vikings...Seattle can actually win this if they don't beat themselves, grab 11 before it disappears
Redskins +11 vs. Cowboys...more inflation, though I don't like backing this Skins team
Bears +3 vs. Eagles...change in plans, wait in case we get 3.5 as it's heading that way
*Titans +5 vs. Texans...Tennessee playing like last year; Texans still not reliable as fave