Week 11 Plays

[capping-guru]

YTD 116-90-2 +71.85 Units

UConn -3 for 3 Units
Army is just miserable! What a horrible team and Huskies have really improved the last 2 games, giving ECU all they could handle and then knocking off UCF. HC Bob Diaco finally has the players buying into his system and I think we are looking at the Huskies winning my double digits. Huskies OL has really stood out to me of late and this will be huge when playing a run oriented team.

 

[capping-guru]

Texas +4 for 3 Units
WV off such a huge emotional/physical loss to TCU and go on the road to face a very hungry Longhorns team. Line is quite low considering where both teams are at. As a few have said, 2 wins in their next 3 to become bowl eligible. Lots of motivation for Texas here. Love the play of their D the last few weeks, so if offense can ever get it together, they could very well pull the upset.

 

[cole]

Texas +4 for 3 Units
WV off such a huge emotional/physical loss to TCU and go on the road to face a very hungry Longhorns team. Line is quite low considering where both teams are at. As a few have said, 2 wins in their next 3 to become bowl eligible. Lots of motivation for Texas here. Love the play of their D the last few weeks, so if offense can ever get it together, they could very well pull the upset.

Yes sir CG. Texas is not a very good football team but this is a great spot for them. GL!

 

[capping-guru]

MSU -3 and ASU -1.5 have me thinking big time. I welcome your discussion on these two games.

MSU on National TV and Gameday coming to town, yet they are only a FG fav. Honestly line smells. A banged up Barrett at QB for OSU and this line seems far too low for me. Too much of a gimme. If it was 4.5 or 5 I would jump on it, but this line has me scared. Urban can flat out coach and the Buckeyes can run and pass the ball, score points at will sometimes. Spartans offense has its hiccups. Thoughts?

ASU on the other hand have had 10k empty seats, expect them to be filled by Irish fans. The Irish fan base in AZ is huge! ASU is usually a solid home fav, last week prime example, -6.5 over Utah who were playing their best ball of the year. Yet this line is only -1.5. Seems a tad low as well. I was leaning ASU as I think Jalean Strong gives the Irish secondary match up problems plus the Devils up tempo offense will give the Irish D fits too. But......a big but.......Irish offense is going to eat up the ASU D in my eyes. I look for ASU to start out quick at home but if they dont pull away enough in that first half, then ND wins this game and turns it on in the 2nd half. Taylor Kelly hasnt been particularly good since returning, good for 1 INT per game. DJ Foster at RB is the type of back that the Irish excel at stopping on the ground. Irish WR's and TE's will cause ASU D match up problems and Golson is the better of the two starting QB's that will take to the field in Tempe. Temps in low 80's so heat wont be a big issue.

Thoughts?

 

[capping-guru]

Yes sir CG. Texas is not a very good football team but this is a great spot for them. GL!

Thanks buddy! Glad to see us on same page, lets hope the Horns play 60 minutes and stop the TO's. GL

 

[WildBillPicks7]

MSU -3 and ASU -1.5 have me thinking big time. I welcome your discussion on these two games.

MSU on National TV and Gameday coming to town, yet they are only a FG fav. Honestly line smells. A banged up Barrett at QB for OSU and this line seems far too low for me. Too much of a gimme. If it was 4.5 or 5 I would jump on it, but this line has me scared. Urban can flat out coach and the Buckeyes can run and pass the ball, score points at will sometimes. Spartans offense has its hiccups. Thoughts?

ASU on the other hand have had 10k empty seats, expect them to be filled by Irish fans. The Irish fan base in AZ is huge! ASU is usually a solid home fav, last week prime example, -6.5 over Utah who were playing their best ball of the year. Yet this line is only -1.5. Seems a tad low as well. I was leaning ASU as I think Jalean Strong gives the Irish secondary match up problems plus the Devils up tempo offense will give the Irish D fits too. But......a big but.......Irish offense is going to eat up the ASU D in my eyes. I look for ASU to start out quick at home but if they dont pull away enough in that first half, then ND wins this game and turns it on in the 2nd half. Taylor Kelly hasnt been particularly good since returning, good for 1 INT per game. DJ Foster at RB is the type of back that the Irish excel at stopping on the ground. Irish WR's and TE's will cause ASU D match up problems and Golson is the better of the two starting QB's that will take to the field in Tempe. Temps in low 80's so heat wont be a big issue.

Thoughts?

Line on ASU/ND game is spot on CG!! ASU off OT game, Utah "D" was probably the best "D" that ASU faced all year, ND very fortunate to have beaten Navy in that shootout. Money from public will drop that line to pickem or ND -1 by Monday night probably.

MSU/OSU line again, spot on, Vegas knows lots of big money will come in on OSU early, it will drop the line down a bit, advanced line was -3 1/2 MSU, then I saw -2 on "Opener" steamed to -3 1/2. Smell a trap on this one. MSU on neutral turface beat OSU 34-24 LY +5 1/2, OSU beat MSU 17-16 @ MSU in 2012, Urban's first year. Conor Cook has been hot and cold, MSU played miserable the last 10 mins vs Nebraska and were lucky to win that one, OSU rolled Illini easily but played conservatively after being up big early vs PSU @ PSU. So hard to read these two teams. Its going to comoe down to special teams and field position and the better kicker in this tilt.

This is the time of year that Vegas is spot on with the lines, especially on marquee games.

I'll wait and see who moves the lines the wrong way big before pouncing but will be following your picks as well!

GL!

WB :0074

 

[Okie]

My Take ND/ASU

My Take ND/ASU

Irish have far better QB. Take ND in a high scoring game.

 

[sds222]

MSU -3 and ASU -1.5 have me thinking big time. I welcome your discussion on these two games.

Ohio state has played the easier schedule I think and their offensive numbers reflect that but against good defenses they have struggled, losing to va tech and going to OT vs penn st. Meyer is a great coach but so is Dantonio. I think the difference here will be the freshman qb Barrett, he will have to make some tight throws in his first big game, national stage - espn gameday on the road, that's going to be a lot to ask. Cook on the other hand has been there, although he hasn't been great, i think he'll be primed for this one and the Spartans will be the better overall team.
This line may not move much, looks even on paper and probably getting even money, maybe slightly to mich st. I took Spartans early at -3.


Lean to ASU, Navy wore them out a little and now have to travel out west. But like Bill said waiting to see if that one moves.

 

[capping-guru]

Line on ASU/ND game is spot on CG!! ASU off OT game, Utah "D" was probably the best "D" that ASU faced all year, ND very fortunate to have beaten Navy in that shootout. Money from public will drop that line to pickem or ND -1 by Monday night probably.

MSU/OSU line again, spot on, Vegas knows lots of big money will come in on OSU early, it will drop the line down a bit, advanced line was -3 1/2 MSU, then I saw -2 on "Opener" steamed to -3 1/2. Smell a trap on this one. MSU on neutral turface beat OSU 34-24 LY +5 1/2, OSU beat MSU 17-16 @ MSU in 2012, Urban's first year. Conor Cook has been hot and cold, MSU played miserable the last 10 mins vs Nebraska and were lucky to win that one, OSU rolled Illini easily but played conservatively after being up big early vs PSU @ PSU. So hard to read these two teams. Its going to comoe down to special teams and field position and the better kicker in this tilt.

This is the time of year that Vegas is spot on with the lines, especially on marquee games.

I'll wait and see who moves the lines the wrong way big before pouncing but will be following your picks as well!

GL!

WB :0074

Like you said, at this time of year, lines are very tight..........there are no surprises......Vegas has a handle on all teams. They know how teams stack up against run or pass oriented teams. Visiting Vegas a ton, talking to sports books and people in the know, they all said the last 4 weeks of the CFB season are tough. Be selective, etc....

Like you said, see how some of these lines move. GL!

 

[capping-guru]

Irish have far better QB. Take ND in a high scoring game.

I agree on the QB aspect, but defensively is my concern more than ever with ND. They lost LB Joe Schmidt for the season. When he left the game, the ND defense really collapsed. Reason being he is the play caller on the defensive side of the ball. After he left the game, Brian Kelly said they went with one defense the rest of the game.......extremely vanilla and Kelly is undecided on who will call the defensive signals. Freshman, 4 star recruit takes Schmidt's place. For me, right now.......its ASU or bust.

 

[capping-guru]

Ohio state has played the easier schedule I think and their offensive numbers reflect that but against good defenses they have struggled, losing to va tech and going to OT vs penn st. Meyer is a great coach but so is Dantonio. I think the difference here will be the freshman qb Barrett, he will have to make some tight throws in his first big game, national stage - espn gameday on the road, that's going to be a lot to ask. Cook on the other hand has been there, although he hasn't been great, i think he'll be primed for this one and the Spartans will be the better overall team.
This line may not move much, looks even on paper and probably getting even money, maybe slightly to mich st. I took Spartans early at -3.


Lean to ASU, Navy wore them out a little and now have to travel out west. But like Bill said waiting to see if that one moves.

Agreed that travel and all the illegal chop blocking, etc...from the Navy takes it toll.

As for MSU, you make some great points. QB wise, Cook is more seasoned and the Buckeyes numbers against weak comp really does show. Going to look deeper. GL

 

[capping-guru]

Kent St. +13.5 for 2 Units - Tuesday night play
Key number, so going the other way. Huge money coming in on fav here and I love double digit conf. home dogs in these primetime games. No way I couldnt bit. Been too many MAC games this year where double digit favs just havent covered.

 

[buddy]

Tough one for me. Pass.

 

[capping-guru]

Tough one for me. Pass.

All good buddy. These games are tough to pick at times.

 

[capping-guru]

Ball St. +3 for 2 Units - Wednesday night play
Huge public money on NIU, and they have lost their last 5 ATS. Give me the home team again in the MAC in a primetime game.

 

[capping-guru]

WF +22.5 for 2 Units - Thursday night play
Clemson doesnt blow out anyone in conference........ok NC St. lol. But look at Clemson on the road, lost at UGA and FSU, squeaked by BC by 4 pts. QB Stoudt cant throw the deep ball and the Tigers will play mega conservative yet again on the road. This is the Deacons bowl game! Getting over 3TDs at home over a conf. foe. I will take it!

 

[capping-guru]

Purdue +16.5 for 3 Units
Been riding the Boilermakers the last few weeks, love what HC Hazell is doing and really like the dont die attitude of his team. Wisky favored on the road by a few more than at Rutgers, when they blew them out. Line smells, Huskers on deck.......far too many points. Purdue gets the cover at home!

 

[WildBillPicks7]

WF +22.5 for 2 Units - Thursday night play
Clemson doesnt blow out anyone in conference........ok NC St. lol. But look at Clemson on the road, lost at UGA and FSU, squeaked by BC by 4 pts. QB Stoudt cant throw the deep ball and the Tigers will play mega conservative yet again on the road. This is the Deacons bowl game! Getting over 3TDs at home over a conf. foe. I will take it!

GL on this one CG!! Deacon faithful already worn down with poor season even with a new coach, go figure, they did this with the former basketball coach. No patience in this program. Stoudt gets his 2nd shot at WF, WF looked horrible vs Syracuse, I think that Clemson's "O" is a tad better than Syracuse and their "D" is definitely better. Wake was starting a frosh QB, tonight they just try for respect on national TV!! Some weather perhaps, chance of showers, been getting some gusty 10 mph winds on occasion early today, game time said to be cloudy and 60.

GL!

 

[capping-guru]

GL on this one CG!! Deacon faithful already worn down with poor season even with a new coach, go figure, they did this with the former basketball coach. No patience in this program. Stoudt gets his 2nd shot at WF, WF looked horrible vs Syracuse, I think that Clemson's "O" is a tad better than Syracuse and their "D" is definitely better. Wake was starting a frosh QB, tonight they just try for respect on national TV!! Some weather perhaps, chance of showers, been getting some gusty 10 mph winds on occasion early today, game time said to be cloudy and 60.

GL!

WF played like it was their bowl game but talent came through in the 4th quarter for Clemson. Hope you hit it buddy!

 

[boilermaker]

Purdue +16.5 for 3 Units
Been riding the Boilermakers the last few weeks, love what HC Hazell is doing and really like the dont die attitude of his team. Wisky favored on the road by a few more than at Rutgers, when they blew them out. Line smells, Huskers on deck.......far too many points. Purdue gets the cover at home!

be careful with Boilers CG lots of key injuries last week.