===*===
2025 NFL: 83-127-3 -1351.58 (latest, wk10: 8-18 -384.68)
--straight: 27-31-2 [sides: 24-26-1 (fave:17-22-1, dog:7-4) 1H: 0-2 (fave:0-2) totals: 1-0-1 (ov:x-y, un:1-0-1) tt 1-0 (over:1-0) player props: 1-3]
--teasers: 43-48-1 [6, 6.5 & 7pts: 17-27, T3/10: 20-18-1, T4/13: 6-3]
--parlays: 13-48
===*===
=======
Last couple of weeks have been grim so limited value on offer outside of some potential fade material. Week 13, if it comes, were historically some of my better ones. Week 11, if it comes, right. Not quite.
Similar first-look stuff I've been posting, with:
visitor(won-loss/avg.points for-avg.points against(strength of schedule)opponent passer rating*) @ (same)
--TUSH1/2/3 (predictive spread handicaps based on 1:teamrankings, 2:espn's fpi, 3:nfelo)**
*+ after for significant improvement over past 3; - after for significant decline over past 3
**no home-field adjustment included in listed numbers here
NFL week 11
thurs 8:15 jets(2-7/21.6-26.8(31)103.7+)@Patriots(26.5-19.2(32)98.9)
--NE-8.1/-7.1/-5
sun 9:30am commanders(3-7/22.3-28(12)112.7-)@(Spain)@Dolphins(3-7/21-25.6(21)112.2)
--wash-1.8/-0.7/-1.1
1pms:
packers(5-3-1/23.6-19.5(23)91.3)@Giants(2-8/21.7-27.3(11)95.1-)
--gb-7.6/-3.9/-7.1
--Slight Chance Rain
buccaneers(6-3/24.4-22.9(7)91.0+)@Bills(6-3/27.5-21.9(28)84.8+)
--Buff-2.3/-2.7/-3.7
--Likely Rain
bengals(3-6/24-33.3(22)104.8)@Steelers(5-4/23.5-24.4(15)92.4)
--Pit-4.7/-2.2/-3.2
--Slight Chance Rain; medium wind
texans(4-5/22.6-16.6(3)70.8)@Titans(1-8/14.4-28.5(4)104.4-)
--hou-14/-8.9/-11.1
--Slight Chance Rain Showers
bears(6-3/26.5-27.4(29)98.8)@Vikings(4-5/22.3-23.6(17)102.7)
--Min-1.3/chic-1.1/chic-1.3
panthers(5-5/17.7-22.2(30)90.7-)@Falcons(3-6/18.6-23.2(14)89.5-)
--Atl-2.3/-1.9/-2.5
chargers(7-3/24-20.3(25)75.6+)@Jaguars(5-4/22.7-24.4(5)89.3-)
--lac-2.3/-4.3/-4.1
4:05 seahawks(7-2/30.5-19.1(18)83.3+)@Rams(7-2/27.9-17(9)88.6)
--LAR-1.4/-2.5/-2.3
4:05 49ers(6-4/22-23(6)105.1)@Cardinals(3-6/22.4-23.9(19)86.4)
--sf-2.2/-4.3/-3.4
4:25 ravens(4-5/25.4-26.1(1)93.7+)@Browns(2-7/16.2-23.4(20)97.1+)
--balt-9.8/-14.2/-9
--Slight Chance Rain; strong winds
4:25 chiefs(5-4/26.1-17.6(8)93.2)@Broncos(8-2/23.5-17.3(26)78.0+)
--kc-4.2/-5.4/-3.6
--Chance Rain Showers
8:20 lions(6-3/31.4-22.2(10)93.1)@Eagles(7-2/24.2-21.3(2)80.2)
--det-2.6/-1.1/-2.3
--Slight Chance Rain
mon 8:15 cowboys(3-5-1/29.2-30.7(24)112.3+)@Raiders(2-7/15.4-24.4(13)91.1)
--dall-4.1/-4.9/-4.3
--byes:Colts,Saints
======
Chiefs -3 -129 258/200
--week 11 last year I remember thinking that a loss to the Bills would be a good thing for the then 9-0 Chiefs; apparently they did, but I still don't think I've sat through that whole game yet; only MaChiefs game I haven't seen at least twice, I'm pretty sure. Memories. Anyways, Chiefs have absolutely zero wiggle room in this crazy AFC season. Haven't had to scoreboard watch hoping for Steelers losses since that 2020 season, where they pretended to an 11-0 to start, before finally Mahomes seat-holder Alex Smith showed them their plummet. Jaguars playoff-stomping Chiefs out via the head-to-head tiebreaker would strain my sensibilities. If the O-line can give Mahomes time then 24 seems like the likely low end for them; I'm eyeing a KC team total of 23.5, over at -127, or equivalent to my field goal spread. 24 would seem the high end for Broncos scoring, (always) barring some craziness. I'll go out on a limb and plant my flag in a Chiefs 27-16 final score call.
More darkness likely to come. I blame this spinning shit.
Good Luck
2025 NFL: 83-127-3 -1351.58 (latest, wk10: 8-18 -384.68)
--straight: 27-31-2 [sides: 24-26-1 (fave:17-22-1, dog:7-4) 1H: 0-2 (fave:0-2) totals: 1-0-1 (ov:x-y, un:1-0-1) tt 1-0 (over:1-0) player props: 1-3]
--teasers: 43-48-1 [6, 6.5 & 7pts: 17-27, T3/10: 20-18-1, T4/13: 6-3]
--parlays: 13-48
===*===
=======
Last couple of weeks have been grim so limited value on offer outside of some potential fade material. Week 13, if it comes, were historically some of my better ones. Week 11, if it comes, right. Not quite.
Similar first-look stuff I've been posting, with:
visitor(won-loss/avg.points for-avg.points against(strength of schedule)opponent passer rating*) @ (same)
--TUSH1/2/3 (predictive spread handicaps based on 1:teamrankings, 2:espn's fpi, 3:nfelo)**
*+ after for significant improvement over past 3; - after for significant decline over past 3
**no home-field adjustment included in listed numbers here
NFL week 11
thurs 8:15 jets(2-7/21.6-26.8(31)103.7+)@Patriots(26.5-19.2(32)98.9)
--NE-8.1/-7.1/-5
sun 9:30am commanders(3-7/22.3-28(12)112.7-)@(Spain)@Dolphins(3-7/21-25.6(21)112.2)
--wash-1.8/-0.7/-1.1
1pms:
packers(5-3-1/23.6-19.5(23)91.3)@Giants(2-8/21.7-27.3(11)95.1-)
--gb-7.6/-3.9/-7.1
--Slight Chance Rain
buccaneers(6-3/24.4-22.9(7)91.0+)@Bills(6-3/27.5-21.9(28)84.8+)
--Buff-2.3/-2.7/-3.7
--Likely Rain
bengals(3-6/24-33.3(22)104.8)@Steelers(5-4/23.5-24.4(15)92.4)
--Pit-4.7/-2.2/-3.2
--Slight Chance Rain; medium wind
texans(4-5/22.6-16.6(3)70.8)@Titans(1-8/14.4-28.5(4)104.4-)
--hou-14/-8.9/-11.1
--Slight Chance Rain Showers
bears(6-3/26.5-27.4(29)98.8)@Vikings(4-5/22.3-23.6(17)102.7)
--Min-1.3/chic-1.1/chic-1.3
panthers(5-5/17.7-22.2(30)90.7-)@Falcons(3-6/18.6-23.2(14)89.5-)
--Atl-2.3/-1.9/-2.5
chargers(7-3/24-20.3(25)75.6+)@Jaguars(5-4/22.7-24.4(5)89.3-)
--lac-2.3/-4.3/-4.1
4:05 seahawks(7-2/30.5-19.1(18)83.3+)@Rams(7-2/27.9-17(9)88.6)
--LAR-1.4/-2.5/-2.3
4:05 49ers(6-4/22-23(6)105.1)@Cardinals(3-6/22.4-23.9(19)86.4)
--sf-2.2/-4.3/-3.4
4:25 ravens(4-5/25.4-26.1(1)93.7+)@Browns(2-7/16.2-23.4(20)97.1+)
--balt-9.8/-14.2/-9
--Slight Chance Rain; strong winds
4:25 chiefs(5-4/26.1-17.6(8)93.2)@Broncos(8-2/23.5-17.3(26)78.0+)
--kc-4.2/-5.4/-3.6
--Chance Rain Showers
8:20 lions(6-3/31.4-22.2(10)93.1)@Eagles(7-2/24.2-21.3(2)80.2)
--det-2.6/-1.1/-2.3
--Slight Chance Rain
mon 8:15 cowboys(3-5-1/29.2-30.7(24)112.3+)@Raiders(2-7/15.4-24.4(13)91.1)
--dall-4.1/-4.9/-4.3
--byes:Colts,Saints
======
Chiefs -3 -129 258/200
--week 11 last year I remember thinking that a loss to the Bills would be a good thing for the then 9-0 Chiefs; apparently they did, but I still don't think I've sat through that whole game yet; only MaChiefs game I haven't seen at least twice, I'm pretty sure. Memories. Anyways, Chiefs have absolutely zero wiggle room in this crazy AFC season. Haven't had to scoreboard watch hoping for Steelers losses since that 2020 season, where they pretended to an 11-0 to start, before finally Mahomes seat-holder Alex Smith showed them their plummet. Jaguars playoff-stomping Chiefs out via the head-to-head tiebreaker would strain my sensibilities. If the O-line can give Mahomes time then 24 seems like the likely low end for them; I'm eyeing a KC team total of 23.5, over at -127, or equivalent to my field goal spread. 24 would seem the high end for Broncos scoring, (always) barring some craziness. I'll go out on a limb and plant my flag in a Chiefs 27-16 final score call.
More darkness likely to come. I blame this spinning shit.
Good Luck
