Week 12 Card (Nov 11th - 15th)

[Irish]

Well last weekend was not a slammer but it at least there were some winners. The NFL has kicked my arse though....

Ball St (-17) over Miami OH
Now I was one of the few Miami backers last week against Buffalo. What I saw was a team that was just not good enought to stop Buffalo defensively while the offense couldn't get out of their own way. I even had to hear the announcers refer to the Miami Oh QB as the left handed T.Pryor from Ohio Stae. I think Pryor watched or heard that comparison and that is the reason he came out guns blaring against N'Western. This kid is no Proyor he is not accurate and is not good out of the pocket running around. Plus from what I hear he is OUT this week and Raudabaugh, this is good news because a struggling offense now turns itself over to a player with no confidence after being replaced by a freshman. Tough Spot hear because it is away for Ball St and miami plays better at home but IMO that is still not good enough. The Ball State passing attack should have hiesman type numbers against Miami Oh. The visiting team has won the last two games in the series AGAIN this is good news because Ball State knows they can win theiur and they have revenge off a loss from last year that was a scrappy battle. Ball State has beaten its nine opponents by an average of 24.0 points per game. He's been sacked only eight times through the first nine games, ranking ninth in the country for fewest sacks allowed. Davis will remain upright and have time and he should keep drives going and end those drives with points each time. Ball State shut out Toledo and almost Western Kentucky, that type of defense should be enough to stop Miami Oh on a few drives and they just wont have enough to keep pace with the scoring of ball state. Coach Hoke is well aware of this being a trap game, he is well aware his kids might think they will show up and win but considering he knows Miami beat roughly this same team last year he will have that fresh on their minds going into this game. The kids know they can do something great but it will start by finish the season hard. The coaching staff and the senior/upperclass leadership on this team should have their hesads ready to play.

NFL
Arizona (-10) over SF
I was leaning SF but considering how bad my jusdgement was yesterday I faded myself. I also think the 49'ers have questions at QB and that is where the blitz of Arizona might pay off into some turnovers and points. Arizona plays very well at home and they should fight hard considering this is a division game. I like Singletary as a coach but he still needs to players in place before they can win and they just do not have the talent on offense right now. Gore is the only weapon and teams know that and take him out of the game plan. Davis should play better since embarassed last week but still not enough.

Cheers
Irish

 

[spang]

Think you have a 2-0 start there Irish.
Best of luck

BTW: My wife is from your general area. She grew up close to Barnsviile and I found her at Akron U back in '81. 27 years later, its still great.

 

[Master Capper]

Good luck this week Irish. I didnt know you were from Belmont County, I had two college team-mates from Woodsfield and Belmont, and spent a great deal of time getting intoxicated with them at Salt Fork Lake. Is it the Barnesville Shamrocks? They play in a small league I think called the OVAC with the River, Shadyside, and Steubenville, reall good football league for small schools.

 

[Irish]

Spang & MC,
Thanks guys it is a small world, I came up this way from DC to play ball in college. The place grew on me and it is a nice place to raise a family.

Cincy (-3.5) over Louisville
Battle for the keg of nails, signifying that the winning players in the game were ?tough as nails.? The BIG EAST rivals are separated by 105 miles of I-71. Cardinals have won the past five meetings and nine of the last 10. But this is a better Cincy team. I like the bearcat defense a defense that was all over WVU and really allowed them to do nothing. I think WVU is a tougher place to play than Louisville so they should not be intimidated. If anything Kelly should go back and look at his play calling in the last two mins of the game and be aware it is never to late for a team to come back. A lesson that should let the bearcats get on top of Louisville and keep pressing on them. I like the match-up of the secondary for Cincy especially Mickens against the Louisville QB, this kid is a ball hawk and he can make plays. I would think if the Pitt defense were able to get all over the cards offense then Cincy will bring the heat and try to do the same. Then you have to think the way Cincy plays offense with the middle passes and continued drives the Card defense which has played better will not know whats coming and be exposed. The Cards help McCoy to 30 plus yards but the panthers turned turnovers into points. The bearcats should just turn drives into points and let the defense do their job. They should win this game and Cincy is the better team with the confidence after beating WVU. Battle of the nails should be heading to the better team this season and thats cincy. They should look to revenge last seasons loss.

Cheers
Irish

 

[rubiconed]

GL Irish !!! On Ball St with you !!! :toast:

 

[Irish]

0-2 to start the week. Yet again I back the team with the turnover issues. This is starting to get absurd.

C.Mich (+3) over N.Ill
Scared first of all because this goes against a serious trend I watch. The Chippewas enter the contest having won five straight and are tied with No. 16 Ball State for first place in the Mid-American Conference West Division. This is a good Chip team but can they be as productive against N.Ill with the back up qb in. All signs point to Brunner under center and even though he is a good QB he is not nearly as gifted running the ball and that hurts the flow of what C.Mich is trying to accomplish. The Chippewas? 35-10 win in Mount Pleasant last season snapped a nine-game NIU winning streak in the series. So you have to think the huskies have every reason to come out and play hard. If they win then they spoil next weeks match up with Ball State and they would get revenge for a beating that hurt last season. CMU is 31-of-50 on third down over its last three games,62% so you know this team is designed to move the chains. Getting the N.Ill defense tired is a good way to get the running game going and keep it going grinding out long crowd quieting drives. CMU has turned the ball over just seven times all season, the second-fewest turnovers in the country. The Chippewas? two fumbles lost is tied for the second-fewest nationally. This is one reason I like this play. I have seen way too many turnovers from the teams I have backed over the past few days so ball security is huge. Then again I thought the same thing about Davis last night and he ends up tossing a season high two interceptions. This is the third straight road game for C.Mich and that is a very bad thing especially tonight considering In 42 seasons Northen Ill at Huskie Stadium has a winning percentage of 58.4%. This is a very good N.Ill team and this will be a battle. Northern Ill looks like this overall in the NCAA and the MAC:

NCAA MAC
Scoring Defense 9 2
Total Defense 9 1
Pass Defense 8 2
Rushing Defense 16 1
Turnover Margin T-23 5
Opp 3rd Down Conv. T-30 1

The only way I can see this going is a C.Michigan win if they come to play. No matter how well the N.Ill defense plays I think the deeper passes should be open and Ball State showed they can be beat deep. Now Central Michigan has beaten the big teams of the MAc or at least one of the big teams but it was a very close game. In fact Central Michigan has been winning games but they are all extremely close and I would bet too close for the central michigan coaching staff. This is the reason I am taking the points because I think if this game goes as I see, it will be a hard faught tight game and close in the end. And thinking that getting three is a good spot but looking at some of the trends about 96% of the money thinks the same thing and the line is going up so it could be trouble. Still I have to play on the better team in this game. Considering how ice cold I have been lately the better teams are making the mistakes that hurt them ATS so beware, I am in serious need of the ball bouncing in my favor.

Cheers
Irish

 

[rubiconed]

GL Tonight Irish !!! :toast:
I'm leaning towards the Home Team, but haven't pulled the trigger yet !!!

 

[Irish]

Temple/Kent St UNDER (47)

Temple averages 17.9 scored on the road. They allow 19.8 scored on the road. Over the last three games Kent has scored 34.3 per game while giving up 30.7. But thats misleading because Kent St only average 17.5 points per game at home. 2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons. Both of those totals were around this area 45-47. Kent State 222.1 rushing yards per game, temple gives up 150. Run and grind boys

Also going PHX (-1.5) over Houston 1st half

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

good luck this week irish...

 

[Irish]

Buffalo (+3) over Akron
Senior night for the zips against the upstart Bulls. This Bulls squad beat the Zips last season and this is a much more confident group. Willy threw for three TDs to lift the Bulls to the win. So this team knows they can pass on this defense and they now have the pieces in place to keep the Zips off balance defensively all game. This season, Akron?s offense ranks 45th in the NCAA in rushing offense (166.56), 41st in passing offense (231.33) and 35th in total offense (397.89). Last season, Akron ranked 90th in the nation in rushing offense (127.83), 100th in passing offense (183.83) and 111th in total offense (311.67). Not the greatest numbers but good enough considering they are doing what needs to be done on defense. The Zips have created 21 turnovers (14 fumbles and seven interceptions) to rank 26th in the NCAA and first in the MAC. The Zips are third in the MAC and 27th nationally in turnover margin (+0.67). However I really am not impressed by the Zips on defense. Against Toledo they had about a 20 point lead and allowed Toledo to cut it to 3 and finally pull away toward the end of the game. That game would have had a different result if the rockets did not blow their load trying to get back into the game and then run out of gas. Now looking at this I have to think the Bulls are going to come out and give the Zips a battle. They have played extremely well over the past to games. But before those two blow outs the Bulls were in some close battles. Starks is becoming a very good running back for Buffalo and with Willys ability to throw he has lanes that allow him to average over 5 yards per carry. The Buffalo defense needs to have high pressure on Jacquemain, he can throw the ball but he tosses a ton of picks. If the pressure gets to him the Bulls can use the Zips turnover style of defense against them. The passing and running attack of the Bull scoring over 30 points the last 2 games, playing with confidence against a team that will be emotionally charged but should fall short. I think Buffalo actually wins this game as C.Mich did last night but again I like the points if toward the end of the game the Bulls start easing off the gas thinking about Bowling Green.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Big play
Miami (-4.5) over Virginia Tech
The Canes has a little payback on their minds after getting smacked by VT last season on Senior day. Watching the VT/Maryland game you saw a VT offense that needed HUGE rushes from a freshman to generate offense as well as trickery with the TE Boone lining up under center. What you also saw was Maryland refuse to blitz and force a gimpy Glennon to move around. The miami defense can not be affraid to go one on one with the wide recieivers and bring a lot of heat to Glennon. One he has a bad ankle, two he is a bad QB under pressure and three if they get to him and he gets banged up a converted WR steps in. With the hokies it all comes down to the running game, they have some of the most conservative play calling in the entire NCAA. You would have to think with the lack of experience and playmakers at WR this game will be tougher for VT to win than expected. Evans came out of no where last week and showed he is a very good running back but I am not sure this Tech O-line will move bodies out of the way as easy as they did last week. Plus the LB's for Miami are quicker and react better than the terp LB's. So if he gets to the second level he should meet someone there unlike against Maryland where Evans got to the seond level and was reaching the edge without being touched. I think with how young and poor the tech offense is they will struggle to put points on the board without the defense making huge plays or something crazy happening n special teams. I just do not see the VT defense as dangerous either, the Hokies entered last week ranked in the top 30 in total defense. I mean they are good but they have issues in coverage in the secondary and they get VERY TIRED. The VT defense is not stoppers, they make drives longer and hope to force or make a team hurt themselves. So the defense ends up on the field for long periods of time and THEN you have half of the secondary returning kicks and playing on special teams. Add in Macho Harris playing WR and you have a nice oppertunity for Miami to take big advantage of VT on defense deep once the legs get tired. In five ACC games, UM has been tough to stop offensively. The Hurricanes lead the ACC in scoring offense with 30.4 points per game in ACC games. The Hurricanes are 38th nationally in overall scoring offense (29.8 points per game). The Hurricanes own an 11-2 mark against Virginia Tech when they score 20 or more points. This is a very important home game for Miami who IMO is playing the better brand of football. I would think this will go down like the VT/BC game where VT's offense cannot get it done and the defense gets to a point where the tank runs dry. Miami will run with Cooper and James and they have a very good scrambling threat with their QB. They are coming off an extended week so they have had more time to prepare for this team. VT is good on thursdays but I think Glennon shows why he was replaced by a freshman last season and why Beamer had to take the redshirt of Taylor this season. The O-line will get exposed if Miami decides to rush players and if the Canes do that then Evans will not have room to run. The key, the biggest key is the miami pressure. Trust that even if the one on one coverage is loose if you get some heat on Glennon his throw will not be on the make or he will stare down his WR and the safety can make a play on it. The Canes should be a tough task for VT and I do not think tech is good enough this season to make it happen on offense.

NFL
New England (-3.5) over Jets
New England plays VERY well at home. For some reason the QB play is extremely efficent and the running game is very hard to stop. Favre is going to have to make big plays because the Pats will try to stop the run. This may be tough because it will be extremely cold AND 100% chance of rain. The Jets had a very good running performance last week but this will be a different monster. The jets struggle on the road.. buffalo and even oakland so tonight they have those same issues and New England is too tough to make mistakes and stay in the game.

Cheers
Irish

 

[LDB]

GL TONIGHT.. LIKE BUFFALO AS WELL

 

[Irish]

Small play
UNLV (-6.5) over Wyoming
I think last weeks emotional win might have this team a little spent. Also like UNLV a more efficent team considering Wyoming is averageing less that 2 TD's per game. They will also turn to the back up QB which should not be too much of a problem but considering they have not been lighting up the score board the back up QB might not be enough to life the guys around him.

REHIT
Miami (-4.5) over VT

Thanks LDB!

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Re-hiy Cincy (-3.5) over Louisville
VERY BIG but beware.....
This is a steaming mad play over the back door from VT. Look at that game will you. I mean the hurricanes got great pressure with 4 down lneman all game yet they did not have a spy on Taylor. It was late in the game when I think Craig James said "Taylor doen't even look down field on pass plays, he is looking at the line to see a gap to run. YET he scrambled for almost ALL of the VT offense?????? Just sick and pissed off about these friggin loses. I do not mind taking a loss where one team played as expected just the game did not go the way I expected but I cannot understand how these coaches today make money putting in a game plan. It is almost as if film study is not done these days. You can even see that because coaches shut it down too early, last night Miami shut is down with over 3 mins left in the game up by 2????? So tonight I will ride the bearcats for a big play. The reason is....
Brian Kelly, the 2007 BIG EAST Coach of the Year, is in his second full season at the helm of the Cincinnati football program with a 18-5 record and an 18-year career mark of 155-56-2. Kelly led the Bearcats to a school-record-tying 10 wins in 2007 and a victory in the Papajohns.com Bowl. He won two NCAA Division II National Championships at Grand Valley State and led Central Michigan to the 2006 Mid-American Conference Championship. He is the leader in victories among active BIG EAST coaches and is the only current BIG EAST coach with 150 or more career wins.
I like the defensive Co for Louisville and how he has changed the attitude. Cardinal defense that?s tough up front and No. 7 nationally at stopping the run. So I think Pike will have to be put in the position to make plays and Kelly can do that knowing the defense is run stopping. Now Defensively Cantwell has tunnel vision I have said it before but he falls back into it when he lacks confidence. The secondary of Cincy has to read this and make them pay. Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith, they need to be difference makers. Louisville has lost two in a row, they dropped a game to Cuse and then to Pitt to put them behind the eightball in the bowl hunt. Still they should have some fight because they are a good home team and Cincy got their doors blown off at UConn and they are coming off an emotion WVU win. Still I am banking hard on the better team, the better talent and the better coach.


Cheers
Irish

 

[Cie]

GL tonight, chief:toast: I am looking at other side, which is good news for concy backers:SIB

 

[MattMurphy]

I'm also steaming about that Miami game. Cost me a nice parlay.
So I guess the logical thing is to steam with you so go Cincy
GL

 

[Blackman]

Tough break with the Canes, bud. Get 'em tonight.

 

[Irish]

Thank Cie and Blackman
Good luck tonight Matt.

Wake Forest (-3.5) over North Carolina State
The Pack ranks No. 11 in the ACC in scoring and total offense. NC state needs to have more solid play from the freshman QB. Over his last five games, the freshman has thrown 10 touchdown passes without an interception. But will the freshman be able to handle this veteran defense. Wake's defense leads the nation in takeaways with 28. The Deacs have lost just 14 turnovers and are second in the nation in turnover margin at +14. Oklahoma leads the nation at +16. The Pack has rushed for better than 150 yards in each of its last three games. So you know in order to take the heat off the freshman NC state will run the ball and Wake has to be up to the challange to force the freshman to beat them then the ball hawking ability can cause NC issues. Wake Forest ranks 20th in the nation in scoring defense (19 ppg) and 29th in rushing defense (114.6). In its front seven on defense. Wake will have enough defense to hold the Pack at arms length but they need a good effort from the offense. Over their last three games, the Deacons have averaged 150 yards on the ground and in doing so, have balanced out their offense. This offense will need to rely on a bad o-line, 21 sacks allowed, the Deacons rank 11th in the ACC. Still Wake is going the right way at the right time. They have the ability to make plays and need to continue if they want a shot at the ACC title which can go anyway right now. I expect a very focused Wake team to come into Wolfpack stadium and out play a tough but weak NC state team. Score often and get the crowd and the hope out of this team and they can pull away. Make a freshman throw and Wake will have NC where they need them.

Southern Mississippi (-3.5) over East Carolina
A black out Senior day game against a ECU team that started with a bang but have failed to put it together all season. The Pirates, which rose to as high as No. 14 in the Associated Press poll earlier this season, will be riding a three-game winning streak into Hattiesburg after winning their last two games in overtime by a total of six points. The Eagles have held their last two opponents to an average of 10 total points and 215 yards of total offense, while recording eight turnovers. The need this type of defense tomorrow to make sure the pirates do not get any momentum in this game. This improvememnt in defense comes at the right time considering the Pirates are currently 79th in the nation in total offense. Their rushing offense is No. 82 nationally, while the passing offense is No. 62. So continued defensive play should be something that can lead the eagles to a big win. Just like S.Miss ECU will have to rely on defense in this game. East Carolina excels on defense, and they lead C-USA in most major categories. They lead the conference in scoring defense, total defense, and pass defense. They rank third in rushing defense within the conference. So.Miss is a pretty good offensive ball club, average around 450 yards of total offense each game AND They're averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Using this mix of running along with the ability to go deep should keep an ECU defense on their heels and force them to play more coverage than aggresive blitz. Both teams are playing well of late but I like the home field and the ability of the Southern Miss offense compared to the uncertain QB situation for ECU.

UCLA (-7) over Washington
Washington is garbage as Arizona State proved last weekend. ASU did NOTHING in the first half other than FG's and were able to win that game by almost 3 TD's when the final whistle blew. Now UCLA is in a battle for some respect as the season starts to come to an end. This is a statement game to show recruits and others this program is going in the correct way. UCLA has captured six of the last seven meetings. UCLA's defense has allowed opponent offenses to convert just 18 of the last 64 (28.1%) third down conversion attempts in the last five games. I think the bruins have more to play for even though this is the Washington senior day. UCLA has the one advantage that should carry them in this game and thats running ability. The bruins need to run and run often, just grind the washington huskies dreams out and push past them.

Oregon State (-3.5) over Cal
Love Corvallis, the beavers are a very good home team. Over the past four seasons, the road team has prevailed in the Bear-Beaver series. Cal's defense continues to rank among the national leaders in several categories, now 30th in total defense with an allowance of 312.3 ypg. The Bears are also sixth in the country in pass efficiency defense (98.2 rating) and tied for second in interceptions (17). Cal has the 27th-best scoring offense (32.7 ppg) in the nation. So if this team is statistically so good how have they not been in the top 25? Jahvid Best ranks 14th in the NCAA in all-purpose yards, averaging 157.6 ypg . Now this defense will be tested because the beavers have a very good o-line. Oregon State ranks ninth in the country in fewest sacks allowed (9) and has the top rusher in the Pac-10 - Jacquizz Rogers - who averages 121.0 ypg (also 10th in the nation) ... the Bears though, have only yielded only two individual 100-yard rushers this season. I am thinking even though the bears played USC well they are not up for another road challange. Emotional game against an overrated Oregon team, an emotional let down after losing to USC and now the beavers at home prove to be too much offensively.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

small play
Cincy/Louisville UNDER (46.5)


Adding The Nuggets (+10) over my beloved shamroks

Cheers
Irish

 

[rocky mountain]

Re-hiy Cincy (-3.5) over Louisville
VERY BIG but beware.....
This is a steaming mad play over the back door from VT. Look at that game will you. I mean the hurricanes got great pressure with 4 down lneman all game yet they did not have a spy on Taylor. It was late in the game when I think Craig James said "Taylor doen't even look down field on pass plays, he is looking at the line to see a gap to run. YET he scrambled for almost ALL of the VT offense?????? Just sick and pissed off about these friggin loses. I do not mind taking a loss where one team played as expected just the game did not go the way I expected but I cannot understand how these coaches today make money putting in a game plan. It is almost as if film study is not done these days. You can even see that because coaches shut it down too early, last night Miami shut is down with over 3 mins left in the game up by 2????? So tonight I will ride the bearcats for a big play. The reason is....
Brian Kelly, the 2007 BIG EAST Coach of the Year, is in his second full season at the helm of the Cincinnati football program with a 18-5 record and an 18-year career mark of 155-56-2. Kelly led the Bearcats to a school-record-tying 10 wins in 2007 and a victory in the Papajohns.com Bowl. He won two NCAA Division II National Championships at Grand Valley State and led Central Michigan to the 2006 Mid-American Conference Championship. He is the leader in victories among active BIG EAST coaches and is the only current BIG EAST coach with 150 or more career wins.
I like the defensive Co for Louisville and how he has changed the attitude. Cardinal defense that?s tough up front and No. 7 nationally at stopping the run. So I think Pike will have to be put in the position to make plays and Kelly can do that knowing the defense is run stopping. Now Defensively Cantwell has tunnel vision I have said it before but he falls back into it when he lacks confidence. The secondary of Cincy has to read this and make them pay. Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith, they need to be difference makers. Louisville has lost two in a row, they dropped a game to Cuse and then to Pitt to put them behind the eightball in the bowl hunt. Still they should have some fight because they are a good home team and Cincy got their doors blown off at UConn and they are coming off an emotion WVU win. Still I am banking hard on the better team, the better talent and the better coach.


Cheers
Irish

Nice rehit Bro-heem--I think the luck of the irish has turned for the better!