WEEK 12 INFO

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Opening line report: Big Ben issue could mean big swing

There wasn?t a controversial fourth-down call to highlight the weekend, but last Sunday?s games supplied a bevy of exhilarating finishes.

A pair of contests were decided in overtime, two underdogs of nine points or more won outright and a couple of 1-8 teams provided the most exciting matchup of the afternoon.

Week 12 action in the NFL commences with a trio of games on Thanksgiving. Green Bay meets Detroit in the early afternoon affair, followed by Oakland at Dallas while the Giants and Broncos close out the holiday lineup.

Turkey day appearances from the Cowboys and Lions have become as American as apple pie and bettors have sided with the gravy train in recent years.

?Usually the way it works is that bettors bet against Detroit and with the Cowboys,? said John Avello, Race and Sports Director at Wynn Las Vegas. ?That?s kind of been the standard over the last few years. Detroit hasn?t had a particularly good team so it?s a ?bet against-bet for? type of thing.?

The new Cowboys Stadium will get its first gobble as Dallas (7-3, 5-5 ATS) hosts Oakland (3-7, 5-5 ATS) in a matchup dubbed the AFL Legacy game.

If Dallas? offense continues to sputter, post-stuffing sedation is going to be induced by Tony Romo and the ?Boys and not the tryptophan in the turkey.

The Raiders upset the Eagles earlier in the year as two-touchdown underdogs, and are coming off another heavy dog shocker over Cincinnati where Oakland scored 10 points in the final minute of the game.

Oakland is 1-0 under its new starting quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. The former Toledo Rocket isn?t going to put any team on his shoulders and win ballgames, but he will limit turnovers and won?t single-handily lose games like JaMarcus Russell.

Avello said the Wynn released the spread for this game at 14 in favor of Dallas with a total of 40. The total appears low, but the Cowboys recent struggles to move the ball and the Raiders offensive game plan have affected the number.

?I don?t expect it to be a shootout,? Avello said. ?I don?t believe the Raiders are coming into this game thinking, ?let?s go head-to-head with the Cowboys in a shootout.?

?I think their strategy is going to be, ?let?s not make mistakes and see if we can hang around with this team and maybe win this game late.??

New Orleans is the first NFC team since the 2001 Redskins to start the season 10-0. The Saints (10-0, 7-3 ATS) will put their unblemished record on the line against the Patriots (7-3, 6-4 ATS) in what will be the biggest Monday Night Football game of the year.

The league?s most prolific offenses collide with New Orleans averaging 36.9 points per outing and New England posting 29.0 ppg. Both teams have registered at least 30 points in four of their last five games.

Avello and the Wynn sent out an opening total of 55, the highest of the season, with a spread of 3 in favor of the Saints.

?I opened this game at 3-even which means if you want the Patriots you lay the double juice,? stated Avello, who expects Reggie Bush to be back after sitting out last week. ?This is a similar game to the Patriots-Colts that I opened at 3-even last week. This game could make the same move the Patriots-Colts game made where we had to get off the 3 and go to 2.5.?

Avello also predicted the total could drop with sharp money during the early part of the week, but some shops currently have the number listed as high as 56.5.

For the first time since 2002, every team from the AFC North was defeated on Sunday.

Fortunately for the division-leading Bengals, Carson Palmer was not injured in their loss, but the second-place Steelers were not so lucky.

Ben Roethlisberger sustained a head injury during Pittsburgh?s (6-4, 3-7 ATS) overtime loss to the Chiefs and head coach Mike Tomlin said the setback was ?concussion-oriented?. Roethlisberger is labeled as questionable for the game against Baltimore (5-5, 6-4 ATS).

Second-string quarterback Charlie Batch replaced Roethlisberger in the game, participating in a total of four plays, but suffered a wrist injury and is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

Pitt?s third-string signal-caller on the depth chart is Dennis Dixon who may be in line for his first NFL start on Sunday. It has been reported that the Steelers are also talking with free agent Cleo Lemon.

?If Big Ben is in this game and close to 100 percent then Pittsburgh should be favored small,? Avello said. ?If he is not in the game at all, Baltimore could be a field goal or more (favorite). Roethlisberger is worth a lot. The total on this game without Ben might be 34.?

Other Week 12 NFL lines: New York Giants at Denver Broncos (+6.5); Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-14); Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5); Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-9); Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+3.5); Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+3); Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-11.5); Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (-3); Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5); Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-14).

Pointspreads for the Packers-Lions, Colts-Texans and Cardinals-Titans games have not been released.
 

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Over-Under Trends

Over-Under Trends

Over-Under Trends
November 23, 2009



Arizona - Cards were "over" almost two-thirds of the time (54-29) the previous five campaigns between 2004-08, and after some lower-scoring games early this season are "over" three of last four. Also "over" 22-10 last 32 as host.

Atlanta - Falcons trending "over" lately, 9-3 since late last season. They're also "over" 11-5 last 16 at Georgia Dome and last four vs. NFC South rival Saints.

Baltimore - Ravens have been a surprising "over" team on road since mid '07 (13-5 last 18 away), although team trending "under" lately (last 4 in '09). Note five of last six vs. upcoming foe Steelers "over" as well.

Buffalo - Bills "under" 5 of last 6 this season, also "under" 5 of last 6 at Orchard Park.

Carolina - Pronounced "under" trends in Charlotte (3-2 "under" TY at home, 22-11 last 33). Also "under" 8-2 last 10 vs. NFC South rival Saints.




Chicago - Bears definite "over" lately at Soldier Field (22-9 since late '05 prior to Eagles Sunday night), though they've been trending "under" on road (9-4 last 13 away). "Over" last three at home vs. Vikings, who visit December 28.

Cincinnati - Bengals "under" 3-1 at Paul Brown Stadium TY, now "under" 11-3 last 14 as host.

Cleveland - Punchless Browns, at least when they don't play Detroit, "under" a lot (20-8 last 28 since late '07) dating back to the Romeo Crennel regime; also "under" 10-5 last 15 as host.


Dallas - Cowboys swinging back-and-forth lately, now "under" last 3 after "over" preceding 3 this season.

Denver - Broncos have been trending "under" since early last season ("under" 16-6 last 22 since early '08, also 10-3 last 13 at home and 8-2 overall this season).

Detroit - Trending "over" a lot the past few years, especially on road (3-2 TY, but 22-8 last 30 since late '05). "Over" 36-22 since late '05, and "over" 5 of last 7 vs. both Bears and Packers from NFC North.

Green Bay - Mostly "over" the past few years (now 38-23-1 since late '05), with that trend a bit more pronounced on road (20-9 last 29).

Houston - Texans entered '09 having gone "over" 23-13-1 their previous 37, but have been "under" 5 of last 6 this season prior to last Monday's game vs. Titans. Still "over" 8 of last 9 vs this week's foe Indy (though "under" in Nov. 8 clash at Lucas Oil Stadium).

Indianapolis - Nothing too noteworthy save "under" tendencies (8-1 last 9) vs. AFC South rival Titans & and aforementioned "over" trend vs. Texans.

Jacksonville - Jags had been "over" five straight at home prior to last Sunday's game vs. Bills. Still "over" 40-26 since late in '05 season.

Kansas City - Mostly "under" on road lately (16-8 last 24), though "over" 3 of first 5 away TY and "over" 7-3 overall this season. Chiefs done with Raiders in '09, but for future reference note "under" 9 of last 10 in series.

Miami - Dolphins "over" first 5 at home this season after "under" 7-2 as host a year ago. Note that Miami also "under" 7-2 last 9 away from home.

Minnesota - Vikings continuing recent "over" pattern on road (3-2 TY, 10-4 last 14). Note "over" trends lately vs. NFC North rival Bears (5-1-1 last 7).

New England - Mostly "over" as a visitor in recent years (14-9 last 23), otherwise nothing too identifiable.

New Orleans - "Over" pattern lately (21-10 last 31 since late '07), especially at Superdome (14-4 last 18). But note aforementioned "under" trends vs. division rival Panthers (8-2 last 10; they meet again at Charlotte in regular-season finale January 3).

New York Giants - G-Men have gone "over" 7 of first 10 this season, including 4 of first 5 on road. But "under" last 3 at home vs. Eagles (who visit Meadowlands December 13).

New York Jets - After looking like an "under" team in Rex Ryan's first month in charge, Jets "under" just one of last 6 this season.

Oakland - Raiders trending "under" (12-6-1 last 18) since middle of 2008 campaign, roughly coinciding with Tom Cable's promotion to head coach.

Philadelphia - Birds have been a definite "over" team lately (8-3 last 11 since late '08), and now "over" 8-1 last 9 at the Linc.

Pittsburgh - Steelers have trended "over" at Heinz Field for much of this decade ("over" 48-25 last 73 since early in the '01 season), although that hasn't been as pronounced since HC Mike Tomlin arrived in '07 (just 13-11 since).

St. Louis - Definite "over" lately at home (4-1 TY, 13-6 last 19 at Edward Jones Dome since early '07), though "under" 4-1 on road this season.

San Diego - "Over" 12-6 last 18 away for HC Norv Turner.

San Francisco - Although "over" 4 of last 6 this season, Niners were "under" 8-4 in recent 12-game stretch. Note "unders" 6 of last 7 vs. NFC West rival Rams (on deck again in regular-season finale January 3).

Seattle - Seahawks entered this season "over" 24-10-1 their last 35 as visitor and have continued to trend that way on road (3-2 this season). But "under" 5 of last 7 vs. NFC West rival 49ers (next matchup December 6).

Tampa Bay - Bucs showing a bit more life lately, reflected in "overs" 4-2 last 6, and now "over" 12-4 last 16 as visitor dating back to mid '07. Also "over" 7-2 last 9 vs. NFC South rival Saints despite last week's "under" at Raymond James Satdium.

Tennessee - Trending "over" at home lately (10-6 last 16 at Nashville). Titans "under" 8-1, however, last 9 vs. AFC South rival Colts (on deck December 6).

Washington - Skins were "under" 17-4-1 first 22 on HC Jim Zorn's watch before recent 3-game "over" string. Back "under" again, however, last week vs. Dallas. Also "under" 9-3 last 12 vs. Eagles despite "over" at FedEx Field October 26; they meet again this Sunday at the Linc.
 

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Pro Football Moves of the Week:

Pro Football Moves of the Week:

Pro Football Moves of the Week:

The major moves this week all involve games on or around, not surprisingly, the number ?3?. The Dolphins were bet from 3 (-120) up to 3.5 at Buffalo. Another road favorite, the Seahawks, went from 2.5-point favorites to 3 (-120) at St. Louis. The Rams will be starting back-up QB Kyle Boller.

In the game of the week on Monday, The Saints opened minus-3 (Even) as they welcome the Patriots. The game currently sits at 1.5 with some Patriot money coming in on straight bets as well as parlays. The bulk of the parlay action for this game will come Sunday and Monday, but early indicators are that public love the Patriots in this game.

The overall consensus from the public over the last few weeks is that the Saints are struggling, barely getting by, and could use a loss to take that burden off them and then just concentrate on a playoff push for home field.

Whatever the case may be, the total of 56 is a great indicator of what type of great game we can expect Monday night. It?s likely the Patriots and Saints will be able to do what they want offensively all night and whatever defense makes the big play will go on to win. In this case, the philosophy of betting 'under' because you?re never losing until it goes over is tough to swallow.
 

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Total Talk - Week 12

Total Talk - Week 12

Total Talk - Week 12

Early Start
As mentioned in our Turkey Day edition of Total Talk, the ?under? went 10-4-1 in Week 11 and all three of the primetime battles were low-scoring affairs. After this surge, the ?over? now stands at 80-78-2 (51%) on the season. We also talked about the ?under? trend on Thursday?s this year in pro football and it continued with all three games going ?under? on Thanksgiving. The ?under? is now 6-0 on Thursday this season and next week?s early battle between the Jets and Bills doesn?t look like a shootout on paper. Stay tuned!

Back to the Well


This season, the Giants and Seahawks were the only two teams in the league that have to play three straight on the road, with no break either. New York already completed its three-game stint and the third battle against the Chiefs went ?over? but it was close. The Giants stopped the Chiefs 27-16, which barely eclipsed the closing number of 42.5.


In Week 12, Seattle can keep this trend rolling along when it plays its third consecutive contest outside the Great Northwest. The Seahawks face St. Louis at Edward Jones Dome on Sunday and the oddsmakers made the total 42.5.

Something has to give in this spot, since Seattle hasn't won on the road and St. Louis hasn't earned a victory at home this year. Anybody watching the Seahawks lately knows that its defense is garbage, especially on the road (32.2 PPG). The Rams have been crushed at home (0-5) but let it be known that the team has played the Packers, Vikings, Colts, Saints and Cardinals. Quarterback Kyle Boller gets the nod for St. Louis this week, with Marc Bulger (knee) nursing an injury. Even though Seattle's defense has been destroyed on the road, they did blank the Rams 28-0 in its Week 1 opener at home.

Including the G-Men victory, the ?over? is 20-8-2 (71%). No system or trend is 100% guaranteed folks, but keep it in mind down the road.

Quick Hitters ? Divisional Style

Colts at Texans: Eight of the last nine have gone 'over' and the last four played in Texas have seen an average of 56 points scored.

Browns at Bengals: The 'under' is 3-1 in the last four, with the lone 'over' coming in Cincinnati's 23-20 overtime victory against Cleveland earlier this season.

Bears at Vikings: Last year, both games easily went 'over' the number. On the road this year, Chicago has averaged 14 PPG.

Redskins at Eagles: Philadelphia dropped Washington 27-17 in a MNF affair on Oct. 26. The Eagles have seen the 'over' go 7-3 this season. Six of the last nine in this series has gone 'over'.

Dolphins at Bills: Buffalo has seen the 'under' go 5-0 in its last five games. Miami blasted Buffalo 38-10 on Oct. 4, which easily went 'over' the number (37).

Buccaneers at Falcons: Last year, the 'under' went 2-0 in the two regular season meetings. In 2007, the 'over' went 2-0 and in 2006 the 'under' went 2-0. Does that mean both games go 'over' this year? Atlanta has seen its last five totals go 'over' and Tampa Bay has given up 25, 35, 33, 16, 33 on the road this year. The number is high (46) but seems doable.

Chiefs at Chargers: Three of the last four encounters at Qualcomm Stadium have gone 'under' the number.

Steelers at Ravens: The SNF battle between these AFC North rivals will be the first meeting of the season. Last year, they met twice in the regular season and then in the AFC Championship. The 'over' went 2-1 in those contests and is currently on a 5-1 run in the last six. After watching its first game go 'over' at home this year, the Ravens have seen the 'under' go 4-0 in the last four from M&T Bank Stadium.

Double-Nickel Plus

Last week we talked about totals listed at 50 points or higher while focusing on the Saints-Buccaneers matchup. New Orleans captured a 38-7 road victory and the 45 points went 'under' the closing number of 51. Even though statistics on paper can justify an 'over' play for these high totals, gamblers should be weary of the 50-spot the books post on totals.

Including this outcome, there have been eight games that featured totals of 50 points or more and the 'under' has gone 6-2 (75%) in those contests. New Orleans has been featured in five of those games and the 'under' is 3-2.

This Monday, the Patriots invade The Big Easy for an expected shootout against New Orleans. Oddsmaker Randy Scott of betEd.com believed the total would settle at 54 points but the betting public has already juiced the line up to 56.

Can this game go 'over' the number?

The Saints are averaging 36.4 PPG at the Louisiana Superdome this year and even though their defense (20.4 PPG) has been decent, the unit hasn't faced an attack like the Patriots (29 PPG) all season long. Since starting the season slow after last year's injury, QB Tom Brady has guided the team to 59, 35, 27, 34 and 31 the last five weeks.

This will be the final AFC East battle for the Saints this year. The 'under' went 2-1 in the first three against the Bills, Jets and Dolphins. New England has faced the Falcons and Buccaneers from the NFC South and those two teams combined for 17 points, which helped both contests go 'under' the total.

After watching the 'over' start the year 8-1 on Monday Night Football, the 'under' has cashed the previous three weeks.

Fearless Predictions

We tried to double-up with the three games on Thursday and we caught some bad luck. The Packers-Lions matchup had plenty of opportunities to go ?over? the number but when you put up field goals instead of touchdowns, you?re more than likely going to see an ?under? ticket. We did cash the ?under? between the Raiders and Cowboys, which helped the Best Bets go 1-1. On the year, the Best Bets are 11-10-1 (0) and our teasers are 3-8 (-500). The goal is turn a profit and with six weeks left the deficit is $500. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Colts-Texans 47.5

Best Under: Chiefs-Chargers 45

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Colts-Texans 38.5
Over Buccaneers-Falcons 37
Over Seahawks-Rams 33
 

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Difference in QBs gives Vikings edge

Difference in QBs gives Vikings edge

Difference in QBs gives Vikings edge
About two years ago, Brett Favre was crying and sniffling. He mumbled something about how he had nothing more to give to the game. It was a sad day when he retired from the NFL.

I checked the date, wondering if his retirement news conference was held on April Fools' Day. It actually was on March 6, 2008.

Further research uncovered this Favre quote from that day: "I don't think I've got anything left to give, and that's it. I know I can play, but I don't think I want to."

As it turns out, Favre still wanted to play, and he had plenty left to give. With six weeks left in the regular season, Favre is a strong Most Valuable Player candidate. He turned 40 in October and might be playing better than he did at 30.

The Minnesota Vikings would be good with any quarterback. Add the veteran presence and precise passing of Favre, and no one will be surprised if the Vikings reach the Super Bowl.

Favre has attempted 310 passes this season, and only three have been intercepted. He has completed 69.7 percent of his throws, second in the league to Peyton Manning. Favre has 21 touchdown passes, one off Drew Brees' league-leading pace.

Minnesota is 9-1 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread. The Vikings' loss, 27-17 at Pittsburgh on Oct. 25, featured a fluke ending in which a Favre screen pass was deflected, picked off and returned for a score.

Favre might not be as hip anymore, and so-called "square" bettors lay double digits in the NFL, but I like the Vikings as 101/2-point home favorites over the Chicago Bears on Sunday.

Late-season wear and tear is not showing on Favre, who completed 22 of 25 passes last week. The Vikings won their past two games, against Seattle and Detroit, by an average of 21.5 points.

The Bears, losers of five of their past six, were whipped 34-14 in their last trip to Minneapolis.

Chicago's Jay Cutler, intercepted 18 times and sacked 20 times, is about to get terrorized by Jared Allen and the Minnesota defensive line.

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is listed as questionable because of illness but is expected to play, and star cornerback Antoine Winfield might return from a foot injury.

Four more plays for Week 12 (Home team in CAPS):

? TEXANS (+31/2) over Colts -- It's never easy to bet against Manning. Indianapolis keeps surviving close calls, and this should be another tight one. The Colts beat the Texans 20-17 on Nov. 8, but maybe Houston quarterback Matt Schaub and wideout Andre Johnson can close the deal -- and not leave it to the kicker -- in the rematch.

? RAMS (+31/2) over Seahawks -- This play hinges on the health of St. Louis running back Steven Jackson, second in the league with 1,031 yards rushing. Jackson is questionable because of back spasms, but he's showing a lot of toughness trying to carry a terrible team. Seattle has won the past nine series meetings, and that's a bad sign. But the Seahawks are 0-5 on the road.

? RAVENS (-3) over Steelers -- Pittsburgh could be down two stars, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (concussion) is questionable and safety Troy Polamalu is out. Baltimore is desperate to win after too many tough-luck losses.

? Patriots (+2) over SAINTS -- Both 10-0 teams, Indianapolis and New Orleans, are looking more vulnerable. New England outplayed the Colts and could do the same to the Saints. The Pats are 6-2 against the spread in their past eight as underdogs.

Last week: 5-0 against the spread

Season: 29-25-1
 

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NFL Week 12 Capsules

NFL Week 12 Capsules

NFL Week 12 Capsules



Last week: 10-6 vs. spread; 11-5 straight up

Season: 75-82-3 vs. spread; 93-67 straight up


WEEK 12 NFL CAPSULES


SUNDAY'S GAMES


Cleveland (1-9) at Cincinnati (7-3)

TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Bengals -14 TOTAL: 381/2

TV: None

? WEATHER: Mid-50s, 30 percent chance of rain

? FACTS: Browns QB Brady Quinn's three first-half TD passes last week in a 10-play span against Detroit matched his three-year total to that point. ... Double-digit underdogs, who were 2-9 against the line in the first five weeks, have gone 12-10 since, including two Thanksgiving losses. ... Until last week's 439-yard outburst, Cleveland's offense hadn't reached 200 in any of its previous five games. In Week 4, though, it had 395 in an OT loss to the Bengals. ... Cincinnati RB Cedric Benson (questionable, hip) remains iffy.

? ANALYSIS: The Bengals, still feeling good about themselves, got a mulligan last week when they lost at Oakland but didn't lose ground because the Steelers and Ravens also lost. Despite what the injury report says, coach Marvin Lewis insists Benson, who sat out last week, is close to being back.

? FORECAST: Bengals 31, Browns 6


Washington (3-7) at Philadelphia (6-4)

TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Eagles -9 TOTAL: 41

TV: Fox (5)

? WEATHER: Mid-50s, 20 percent chance of rain

? FACTS: Philadelphia had a season-low 11 first downs in its 27-17 victory against Washington's second-ranked defense in Week 7. The Eagles benefited from a score off an interception and matched a team season high by starting four drives over the 50-yard line. ... Washington has held one team below 100 yards rushing, that being Carolina's third-rated ground offense. ... Eagles officials might want to hustle up and child-proof the luxury suite they'll be giving Redskins owner Daniel Snyder on Sunday.

? ANALYSIS: Eagles DBs were beaten deep with regularity last week against Chicago, but fortunately Jay Cutler was the opposing QB. If Philadelphia doesn't make adjustments, the league's eighth-most accurate passer, Jason Campbell, could be teaming with Santana Moss to make this game close.

? FORECAST: Eagles 23, Redskins 21


Miami (5-5) at Buffalo (3-7)

TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Dolphins -3 TOTAL: 391/2

TV: None

? WEATHER: Mid-40s, 30 percent chance of rain

? FACTS: The chill shouldn't bother the Dolphins, who were 38-31 winners at Kansas City last year when it was 10 degrees at kickoff, the third-coldest reading in the league in 2008. ... Miami's Ricky Williams, now the feature back, is coming off back-to-back games of 20-plus carries for the first time in four seasons. ... Buffalo WR Terrell Owens made a giant contribution in Perry Fewell's first game as interim boss, making nine catches for 197 yards last week.

? ANALYSIS: The Dolphins have been auditioning centers since Jake Grove (questionable, ankle) got hurt last week at Carolina, as did his backup. That could put a damper on the Wildcat, especially snapping with a slick ball.

? FORECAST: Bills 20, Dolphins 16


Seattle (3-7) at St. Louis (1-9)

TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Seahawks -3 TOTAL: 421/2

TV: None

? FACTS: The Seahawks, who have won nine in a row against the Rams, shut them out 28-0 on Opening Day when St. Louis had its starting QB. Now Marc Bulger is out with a broken leg and replaced by Kyle Boller, who was shut out in one of his two starts this year. ... Seattle had 4 yards rushing on 13 carries last week in a 35-9 loss to Minnesota, the worst output by anyone since Dallas had 1 yard against Washington in a Week 17 game two years ago. ... Workhorse Rams RB Steven Jackson has been having back spasms (questionable). He is second in the league in yards from scrimmage, trailing Titans RB Chris Johnson.

? ANALYSIS: Not only is Boller a turnover waiting to happen, but the Rams' defense is getting wearier by the day. The unit has yielded a league-high 14 TD drives of 80-plus yards, including three in a row last week against Arizona.

? FORECAST: Seahawks 26, Rams 13


Indianapolis (10-0) at Houston (5-5)

TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Colts -31/2 TOTAL: 48

TV: CBS (8) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)

? WEATHER: High 70s, 30 percent chance of rain

? FACTS: Dating to 1934, 18 previous teams have opened 10-0. Six of them lost their next game, including Tennessee last year against the Jets. ... One of the most dazzling comebacks in 2008 occurred in Houston when Indianapolis rallied from a 27-10 deficit with three TDs in the final 4:04. The barrage was fueled by three turnovers by then-Texans backup QB Sage Rosenfels. ... Houston is 0-3-1 against the line at home this season.

? ANALYSIS: Except for the fact Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning won't allow his team to lose, the sense of urgency can't be high considering the Colts have a three-game edge for best record in the conference. But as long as Houston kicker Kris Browns continues to gag in the clutch, the Colts should prevail.

? FORECAST: Colts 24, Texans 16


Tampa Bay (1-9) at Atlanta (5-5)

TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Falcons -12 TOTAL: 46

TV: None

? FACTS: Buccaneers rookie QB Josh Freeman, making his fourth straight start, had six fumbles in his first three starts, more than anyone else in this span. ... Atlanta had been averaging 5.3 yards per rush its previous four games behind RB Michael Turner (questionable, knee), before getting only 3.0 on 30 carries last while he sat out a 34-31 loss against the Giants. ... The Falcons finally completed their gruesome run of four teams in seven weeks coming off byes. They went 3-1 against the line against them.

? ANALYSIS: Considering only Kansas City has given up more 400-yard games of total offense than Atlanta, that's a lot of points to spot a Tampa Bay offense that exhibited potential with a 12-play, 95 yard drive against the Saints last week.

? FORECAST: Falcons 31, Buccaneers 24


Carolina (4-6) at N.Y. Jets (4-6)

TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Jets -3 TOTAL: 411/2

TV: None

? WEATHER: Mid-50s, 20 percent chance of rain

? FACTS: New York had only 34 yards by halftime in last week's 31-14 loss in New England, the fewest for any team this year. ... New York's Mark Sanchez, who led the Jets to a 3-0 start, is now the worst QB on the passer chart who hasn't lost his job. Carolina's Jake Delhomme is just above him. ... After being outrushed by all three foes during their 0-3 start, the Panthers have outrun their opponents in the past seven. ... Funny: Jets coach Rex Ryan says Sanchez has been playing well enough to have won seven games.

? ANALYSIS: The Jets have the NFL's No. 2 rushing attack and the Panthers are third best. But it seems only Carolina has had the sense not to let its scattershot QB throw games away anymore.

? FORECAST: Panthers 30, Jets 21


Jacksonville (6-4) at San Francisco (4-6)

TIME: 1:05 p.m. LINE: 49ers -3 TOTAL: 411/2

TV: None

? WEATHER: Mid-60s

? FACTS: Jacksonville is making its second West Coast trip of the year and its first ever to San Francisco. On the earlier trip to Seattle, the Jags were 1-point underdogs and suffered the second-most lopsided loss in their 15-year history, 41-0. ... The 49ers were outgained 362-57 in the first half of their 30-24 loss in Green Bay last week before rallying for a backdoor cover. That 305-yard gap was the second-biggest for a first half all season.

? ANALYSIS: The Jaguars have gone 4-1 since that rout in Seattle and are playing with energy while in the playoff race. The 49ers, meanwhile, have lost five of six - barely winning 10-6 over Chicago despite a plus-4 turnover edge.

? FORECAST: Jaguars 27, 49ers 21


Kansas City (3-7) at San Diego (7-3)

TIME: 1:05 p.m. LINE: Chargers -131/2 TOTAL: 45

RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)

? WEATHER: Mid-60s

? FACTS: The Chiefs won at home against Pittsburgh as an 11-point underdog last week. The last time K.C. pulled such an upset was in 2007 at San Diego, beating the 12-point favorite Chargers. ... Teams are 2-7 against the line this season in their next game after facing the Steelers. ... San Diego gained 203 rushing yards last week, the 22nd time a team reached that plateau this year. Not bad for a Chargers team that also has had games of 34 and 16 ground yards.

? ANALYSIS: Kansas City got two big returns (kickoff for touchdown, interception) last week in their inexplicable victory against Pittsburgh. That's not going to happen again. ... San Diego QB Philip Rivers should play-fake his way to a big day against the league's third-worst defense.

? FORECAST: Chargers 38, Chiefs 14


Chicago (4-6) at Minnesota (9-1)

TIME: 1:15 p.m. LINE: Vikings -11 TOTAL: 47

TV: Fox (5)

? FACTS: Since Chicago's three-game winning streak in Weeks 2-4, when Jay Cutler threw for seven TDs with one interception, he has thrown for seven scores with 13 pickoffs while plummeted from 11th to 24th on the passer chart. ... What if? Should Minnesota QB Brett Favre suddenly be forced to the sideline, Tarvaris Jackson is at the ready. He had eight TD throws and only one interception in the final four games last season as the Vikings won the NFC North. ... Chicago CB Charles Tillman forced three fumbles last week against the Eagles, the most by anyone in a game the past two years.

? ANALYSIS: Minnesota's run-stuffing defense was at its best last week, holding Seattle to 4 yards. If Cutler is going to be expected to generate 80 percent of the offense, there are bound to be some missteps. On the other side, Favre has thrown three interceptions all year.

? FORECAST: Vikings 30, Bears 13


Arizona (7-3) at Tennessee (4-6)

TIME: 1:15 p.m. LINE: Titans -3 TOTAL: 461/2

TV: None

? WEATHER: Mid-60s, 20 percent chance of rain

? FACTS: The Titans are trying to become the first team to finish with a winning record after an 0-6 start. The only 0-5 team to make such a comeback was the 1962 Buffalo Bills (7-6-1). ... After Arizona QB Kurt Warner (probable, head) left late in the first half last week at St. Louis, the Cards went scoreless with backup Matt Leinart at the controls. ... NFL rushing leader Chris Johnson has averaged 161.5 yards during the Titans' four-game winning streak. That figure has been topped in a game by another back only eight times this year.

? ANALYSIS: Johnson should find smooth going again against a Cardinals defense that gave up 270 rushing yards to Carolina four weeks ago. Plus, why would the Cardinals subject their graybeard QB to any abuse while holding a three-game division lead?

? FORECAST: Titans 31, Cardinals 17


Pittsburgh (6-4) at Baltimore (5-5)

TIME: 5:15 p.m. LINE: Off TOTAL: Off

TV: NBC (3) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)

? WEATHER: Low 60s

? FACTS: Pittsburgh had 515 yards of total offense last week at K.C. in its 27-24 OT loss, the most by a losing team this season. It also was only the second time in two years a double-digit favorite held a double-digit lead (17-7) and lost. ... Baltimore has allowed an average of 10 points in its past four games, snapping back after yielding 24-plus in four of its first six. ... Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (probable, head) insists he'll play. If he can't, uh-oh. With backup Charlie Batch out (wrist), next up is Dennis Dixon, who has thrown one pro pass.

? ANALYSIS: If the Steelers quit giving up kickoff returns for TDs (an NFL record-tying four so far) maybe they'll win a few more games, especially against a Ravens team that has had two offensive TDs in its past three games.

? FORECAST: Steelers 27, Ravens 19


MONDAY'S GAME


New England (7-3) at New Orleans (10-0)

TIME: 5:30 p.m. LINE: Saints -21/2 TOTAL: 56

TV: ESPN (30) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)

? FACTS: The Saints have only two victories over a team with a winning record at the moment (Philadelphia, New York Giants). That's two more than the Patriots have. ... New England has held a league-high three starting QBs below the Mendoza line (39.6) in passer rating this year, but none of them will be playing in this year's Pro Bowl. ... Over the previous four weeks, a running back gained 130-plus yards 12 times. Three of them were against New Orleans. ... One of the Patriots' unlikeliest victories came in 1986 when they beat the Saints in the Superdome 21-20 despite having only 2 yards rushing on 18 carries.

? ANALYSIS: New Orleans has built its reputation as a ball-hawking secondary by facing QBs who have had little or no experience, or who are just plain rotten. The only QB the Saints faced inside the top 20 was No. 12 Eli Manning, fresh off his foot injury. Now they'll face three-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady, who's No. 5.

? FORECAST: Patriots 38, Saints 27


Last week: 10-6 vs. spread; 11-5 straight up

Season total: 75-82-3 vs. spread; 93-67 straight up
 

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DUNKEL INDEX

DUNKEL INDEX

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29
Time Posted: 11:30 p.m. EST (11/25)
Game 205-206: Indianapolis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 140.940; Houston 139.874
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over
Game 207-208: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.898; Cincinnati 137.874
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 20; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 14; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-14); Over
Game 209-210: Chicago at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.269; Minnesota 140.289
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2); Under
Game 211-212: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.274; Philadelphia 134.161
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Over
Game 213-214: Miami at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 135.831; Buffalo 126.994
Dunkel Line: Miami by 9; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3); Over
Game 215-216: Arizona at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 138.215; Tennessee 134.014
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4; 52
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Over
Game 217-218: Seattle at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.828; St. Louis 120.261
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Over
Game 219-220: Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.674; Atlanta 134.690
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 12; 46
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+12); Under
Game 221-222: Carolina at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.009; NY Jets 132.029
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under
Game 223-224: Jacksonville at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.844; San Francisco 131.526
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick San Francisco (-3); Under
Game 225-226: Kansas City at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.875; San Diego 136.307
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: San Diego by 14; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+14); Over
Game 227-228: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 140.488; Baltimore 138.316
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 37
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30
Time Posted: 11:30 p.m. EST (11/25)
Game 229-230: New England at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.321; New Orleans 149.020
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-1 1/2); Over
 

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BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES



THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE RAVENS (-7) OVER THE STEELERS

Ben Roethlisberger is injured and will not play, making the Steelers start their third-string QB.

Steelers safety Troy Polamalu is hurt, and the Steelers are a different team when he's not in the lineup.

The Steelers are 1-4 against the spread when Roethlisberger is healthy. It will get only worse without him.

THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE TEXANS (+31/2) OVER THE COLTS

The Texans covered their last game against the Colts.

Dwight Freeney is out, so Texans quarterback Matt Schaub should have more time to throw.

The Texans should try to control the clock with Steve Slaton and Chris Brown, keeping the Colts offense on the sideline.

LAST WEEK: 1-1

SEASON: 9-13
 

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Colts fill holes, keep surging

Colts fill holes, keep surging

Colts fill holes, keep surging

Manning, fast defense can lift Indy by Texans




It's tough to argue against the Indianapolis Colts' Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne representing the top pass-catch combination in the NFL.

Manning leads the league with 3,171 yards passing, and Wayne leads all receivers with 968 yards. Manning and Wayne teamed up to burn the New England Patriots two weeks ago, and they are targeting the Houston Texans today.

"The Colts are not 10-0 by accident," handicapper Joseph D'Amico said. "They have earned their record in the public eye and on the back of Manning, their veteran leader. Despite injuries, new personnel and early predictions of a nonexistent running game, the Colts have emerged as the best team in the AFC."

Indianapolis has won 19 consecutive regular-season games, and everyone keeps wondering when the streak will end. Many predicted doom for the Colts last week at Baltimore. It didn't happen.

Next in line is AFC South rival Houston, which fought gallantly before falling 20-17 at Indianapolis on Nov. 8.

The Colts are favored by 3 to 31/2 points on the road, and D'Amico recommends getting the "sharp number" and betting the Colts minus-3.

The Texans, 1-3-1 against the spread (ATS) at home, feature a dangerous pass-catch combo in Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson.

"By no means am I selling Manning and the offense short, but the Colts' speedy defense is the reason for their stellar record," said D'Amico (Allamericansports.info). "The Indy stop unit is the best in the NFL, allowing a mere 15.7 points per game. It's a fast and destructive defense."

The Indianapolis defense will miss end Dwight Freeney, who is out with an abdomen injury. But the Colts continue to fill holes, and they are 5-0 ATS on the road.

D'Amico, 5-0 last week in the Las Vegas Review-Journal NFL Challenge, breaks down the rest of today's Week 12 schedule:

? Cleveland at Cincinnati (-14): At first glance, the Bengals look like the play. But after scoping deeper, we can see that if they were to lay two touchdowns in each game this season, the Bengals would have covered once. These teams met in Week 4, with Cincinnati winning, 23-20. The Browns' Brady Quinn looked like his old college self as he passed for four touchdowns last week against the Lions. The Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their past seven as home favorites. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the past five series meetings. Take the Browns and the points.

? Chicago at Minnesota (-11): With a win, the Vikings can run away with the NFC North and separate from most of the NFC. Minnesota has won its past three by a combined 55 points. With Adrian Peterson about to break 1,000 yards rushing, and Brett Favre finding his youth with 21 touchdown passes and three interceptions, the Vikings offense is unstoppable. On the defensive side, led by end Jared Allen, Minnesota is one of the league's best at sacking the QB. The Bears' Jay Cutler will add to his 18 interceptions. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine. The Vikings will crush the Bears and their playoff hopes.

? Washington at Philadelphia (-91/2): The Redskins are without a running game, and that will hinder their stagnant offense that is averaging 14.6 points per game. Injuries prevent me from backing Washington. Although the Redskins are 0-5 on the road, they have lost only one game by more than 10 points. I expect Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb and wideout DeSean Jackson to hook up frequently, but Washington's defense will keep it competitive. Four of the past five in the series went under the total. Bet this under 41.

? Miami (-3) at Buffalo: The Dolphins disposed of Buffalo 38-10 early in the season. In injured running back Ronnie Brown's absence, Ricky Williams filled in nicely at Carolina. The Bills are 1-8 ATS in their past nine at home. Williams and the Miami running game will rule, so go with the road favorite.

? Arizona at Tennessee (-21/2): Both teams are hot. The Cardinals have won six of their past seven, and the Titans have rebounded to win and cover four in a row. The line opened Arizona minus-1 and now is Tennessee minus-21/2 to 3. It has the makings of a trap. But I cannot argue with the success of running back Chris Johnson and an offensive line that has started to protect quarterback Vince Young. This play is shaky, but I'll side with Tennessee.

? Seattle (-4) at St. Louis: When these teams met in Week 1, the Seahawks rolled, 28-0. This is a tough game to figure. Seattle is 0-5 straight up and ATS on the road. St. Louis is 0-5 at home. Rams quarterback Kyle Boller will start, and running back Steven Jackson is expected to play despite back spasms. The Seahawks have dominated the series, but too many "if" factors are here. I'll pass.

? Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-12): The Falcons are 4-0 straight up and ATS at home. They probably will be without star running back Michael Turner, but backup Jason Snelling is capable. Buccaneers rookie quarterback Josh Freeman was overwhelmed last week by New Orleans' blitzes and threw three interceptions. Atlanta's Matt Ryan and the league's eighth-ranked scoring offense will light up the scoreboard. Tampa Bay is being outscored by 13 points per game. Lay the 12 with Atlanta.

? Carolina at New York Jets (-31/2): I side with the Panthers, who have had more than a week to prep for this game. Carolina's Jake Delhomme is getting it going with four touchdowns and one interception in his past four games. Running back DeAngelo Williams has tallied 982 yards and seven TDs. The No. 4-ranked Carolina pass defense is allowing 185 yards per game. The Panthers will pressure Jets rookie Mark Sanchez and add to his 16 interceptions. Carolina puts the nails in the coffin of the Jets' once-promising season.

? Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3): The Jaguars are back in the playoff picture at 6-4 after three straight wins. The 49ers have dropped five of their past six. I would side with a Jacksonville team that features running back Maurice Jones-Drew. On paper, you're supposed to take the hot Jaguars, but they are too erratic to back. You also never know how hyped coach Mike Singletary can get his 49ers. This is too tough to call.

? Kansas City at San Diego (-131/2): In the first meeting, the Chargers shellacked the Chiefs, 37-7. Since then, Kansas City has a new running back and has covered three straight, including a 27-24 win over Pittsburgh. I expect the Chargers to be able to pass on the Chiefs, and back-to-form running back LaDainian Tomlinson balances San Diego's attack. However, the Chargers are 0-2 ATS this season laying double digits. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five, and the 'dog is 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17. KC plus the points is the smart play.

? Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-7): Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will not play because of a concussion, which means Dennis Dixon will make his first career start. Without Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, the Pittsburgh defense will have its hands full with quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice. The Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their past seven on the road and 1-4 ATS in their past five at Baltimore. This line was posted at 3 during the week, but the Roethlisberger news forced a major adjustment. Still, the Ravens should cover an inflated number.
 

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Titans top list of teams with dramatic turnarounds

Titans top list of teams with dramatic turnarounds

Titans top list of teams with dramatic turnarounds

Chargers, Jaguars, Dolphins also deserve praise for overcoming poor starts



Perceptions of NFL teams can change dramatically in a relatively short amount of time. The New York Giants, for example, are down and slipping out of the playoff picture.

The turnaround in Tennessee has been something to behold. After a devastating 0-6 start, the Titans are on a four-game roll, and quarterback Vince Young's stock is up.

The fun started when Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher put Young in at quarterback and benched Kerry Collins.

"It's a testament to Fisher's coaching ability that this team has rallied and is playing at such a high level," Las Vegas Sports Consultants odds director Tony Sinisi said.

LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba said his power rating for the Titans has shifted by about a touchdown from the time Young took over to now. Tennessee is a 3-point home favorite over Arizona today.

"From an outsider's view, Fisher waited too long to make the change. Young's been solid, but there really was no pressure on him following the horrible start," Seba said. "That's about to change."

Can the Titans keep it up? Here's offering praise to three other AFC teams that started the season miserably but have righted the ship to get back into playoff contention.

We're used to the San Diego Chargers sleepwalking out of the gate on an annual basis, and they had company in Jacksonville and Miami. Two of those three teams are favored to win today.

Money has surfaced in support of the Jaguars, who are 3-point underdogs at San Francisco.

Jacksonville has won three straight, taking advantage of a relatively easy schedule that remains favorable to the end of the season. It's not pretty at times, but coach Jack Del Rio's team has a penchant for winning close games.

One player has made an incredible impact for the Jaguars. The emergence of wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker has changed the fortunes of the offense. He has 47 receptions for 694 yards and is a red-zone weapon with six touchdown catches.

Sims-Walker loosens defenses for running back Maurice Jones-Drew.

"The major question mark at the outset of the season was who would catch the ball in Jacksonville," Seba said. "Sims-Walker's success has dramatically made the Jacksonville offense more versatile and tougher to defend."

The Dolphins have shown resilience this season, having lost several close games while facing daunting competition. Their losses have come against some of the league's elite teams -- New Orleans, New England, Atlanta, San Diego and Indianapolis.

An injury to running back Ronnie Brown will hurt the Dolphins, who are riding a two-game winning streak into Buffalo. Miami, favored by 3 to 31/2 points over the Bills, gets high marks for playing with passion, but injuries are taking a toll.

"I don't think they'll be able to overcome the loss of Brown," Seba said. "Ricky Williams will be solid in the short term, but he will likely wear down getting the bulk of the carries the rest of the way."

This is a huge rivalry game for the Bills, and it might be a bad spot for the Dolphins, with talented young quarterback Chad Henne facing a solid defense in a hostile environment.

The Chargers are cruising now, winning five straight, while Denver had been self-imploding before its Thanksgiving Day win over the Giants. The AFC West crown is well within reach for San Diego, a 131/2-point home favorite over Kansas City.

"The players in San Diego have a comfort level when they dig themselves a gaping hole. They just don't panic," Sinisi said. "Defensively, they're starting to play much better."

The Chargers are strong finishers. But Seba said, "Their early miscues catch up with them eventually, as they usually have to hit the road in the playoffs."
 

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LVSC Rankings - Week 12

LVSC Rankings - Week 12

LVSC Rankings - Week 12



The latest Las Vegas Sports Consultants rankings didn't see much change at the top, but some teams took several steps back after shocking losses this week. The first five clubs all stayed put, as the Saints remained in the number one spot again.

New Orleans snapped a three-game ATS losing skid with a 38-7 blowout at Tampa Bay, to improve to 10-0 on the season. The Saints continue to march towards home-field advantage in the NFC, despite holding a one-game edge over the Vikings for the top spot in the conference. New Orleans' undefeated mark will be tested this Monday night, hosting New England at the Superdome.

The Patriots are right behind the Saints, as New England ranks second in the poll. The Pats rebounded from the loss at Indianapolis to take care of the struggling Jets. Bill Belichick's squad is one of three 7-3 teams in the AFC fighting for the second seed in the conference.

The Colts remain undefeated at 10-0, but Indianapolis remains in the third position. The Colts held off a feisty Baltimore club in a 17-15 victory, the fourth straight win by less than four points. Indianapolis heads to Houston this Sunday for its second meeting with the Texans in a month. The Colts have taken nine of the last ten matchups with the Texans, but are 2-4 ATS the previous six meetings.

The Vikings held steady in the fourth spot, as Minnesota continues to roll opponents, beating down Seattle, 35-9. Brett Favre is right in the midst of the MVP conversation, tossing 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions, leading the Vikings to a 9-1 start. Minnesota wraps up a three-game homestand this week, hosting struggling Chicago.


Surprisingly, the Steelers didn't fall from the fifth position, despite getting upset at Kansas City in overtime. Pittsburgh has dropped two straight, but remains one game behind Cincinnati inside the AFC North. Mike Tomlin's team heads to Baltimore on Sunday night for a rematch of last season's AFC Title Game, which was won by the Steelers.

The Eagles jumped three spots from 10th to 7th, following their Sunday Night win at Chicago, snapping a two-game skid. Philadelphia sits one game back of Dallas in the NFC East, as the Eagles go for the season sweep of the Redskins at home on Sunday.

The Bengals took a tumble, falling from 6th to 9th after stubbing their toe in Oakland against the lowly Raiders, 20-17. Cincinnati is still in a prime spot to receive a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs, but the Raiders loss may come back to haunt them. Marvin Lewis' team will try to rebound this week, as the Bengals host the 1-9 Browns.

Denver fell from grace following a fourth consecutive defeat, as the Broncos now sit in the 22nd position. Denver was blown out at home against San Diego, while falling out of first place in the AFC West for the first time this season. Josh McDaniels' club hosts the Giants on Thursday night, trying to keep its postseason hopes alive.

Below is the latest LVSC NFL Rankings for Week 12.

LVSC NFL Power Rankings - Week 12
Rank Team Last Week Rating
1 New Orleans 1 142.4
2 New England 2 142.2
3 Indianapolis 3 142.1
4 Minnesota 4 142.0
5 Pittsburgh 5 140.3
6 San Diego 7 140.0
7 Philadelphia 10 139.4
8 Dallas 7 139.3
9 Cincinnati 6 139.2
10 Baltimore 9 139.1
11 Arizona 12 139.0
12 N.Y. Giants 11 138.8
13 Atlanta 14 138.0
14 Green Bay 14 137.2
15 Houston 15 135.8
16 Tennessee 19 135.4
17 Miami 21 135.0
18 San Francisco 17 134.5
19 N.Y. Jets 16 134.0
20 Carolina 20 133.8
21 Jacksonville 23 133.7
22 Denver 17 133.6
23 Chicago 22 133.3
24 Washington 25 131.4
25 Seattle 24 130.7
26 Kansas City 27 130.0
27 Buffalo 26 129.2
28 Tampa Bay 28 128.2
29 Oakland 31 127.0
30 St. Louis 29 126.3
31 Detroit 30 125.6
32 Cleveland 32 125.5
 

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NFL Preview - Tampa Bay (1-9) at Atlanta (5-5)

NFL Preview - Tampa Bay (1-9) at Atlanta (5-5)

NFL Preview - Tampa Bay (1-9) at Atlanta (5-5)

- The Atlanta Falcons' season is in a tailspin, but with four home games left on the schedule, the team can't be counted out just yet. A contest this weekend against the road-challenged Tampa Bay Buccaneers should also give the club a good chance at righting the ship.

Atlanta has lost four of its last five games since starting the season 4-1, and last weekend's tough-to-swallow 34-31 overtime loss to the New York Giants dropped the Falcons five games back of the NFC South-leading New Orleans Saints, who are a perfect 10-0.

All is not lost, though, as long as the Falcons have some games left at the Georgia Dome, where they will host the Buccaneers this weekend. Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 at home this year and has won seven straight and 12 of its last 13 as the host. The Falcons' last home loss was against Denver on November 16 of last year.

Atlanta will need to recover from its three-point setback last weekend to New York. The Falcons trailed by 14 with 12:08 left in the fourth quarter, but quarterback Matt Ryan completed a four-yard touchdown pass to Eric Weems six minutes later before connecting with tight end Tony Gonzalez for the game- tying score from 11 yards out with 28 ticks left.

The Falcons, though, never got the ball in OT, as the Giants won the toss and marched down the field to set up Lawrence Tynes' 36-yard field goal.

Atlanta was without running back Michael Turner, who was out due to a sprained right ankle. Jason Snelling started in his place and ran for 76 yards on 25 carries while scoring a pair of touchdowns. Ryan ended with 268 yards passing without a pick, but Atlanta's pass defense allowed Giants quarterback Eli Manning to throw for a career-high 384 yards and three touchdown passes.

The Falcons will look to rebound versus a Buccaneers team that has dropped six straight on the road, including all four games away from Tampa this year.

Hosting last Sunday's game didn't help the Bucs (1-9) much either, as they were stomped by the Saints, 38-7. It was Tampa Bay's second loss in a row since its lone victory of the season, which came over Green Bay on November 8, and 13th in its last 14 games overall.

In his third career start, Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman turned the ball over on four occasions, getting picked off three times in addition to a lost fumble. He was also sacked three times in completing 17-of-33 attempts for 126 yards.

Michael Clayton scored the Bucs' lone touchdown, hauling in an 18-yard pass from Freeman on the club's first offensive drive that totaled 95 yards. However, Tampa Bay would post just 124 yards of offense over the rest of the game.

The Buccaneers defense, meanwhile, allowed Saints quarterback Drew Brees to throw a pair of touchdown passes in the first half and another early in the third quarter. Tampa also failed to stop New Orleans' run attack in the second half, when the Saints amassed 147 of their 173 rushing yards in the game.

This Sunday's game is the second of three straight versus divisional opponents for the Buccaneers, who visit Carolina next Sunday.

SERIES HISTORY

Tampa Bay holds a 18-13 edge in its all-time series with Atlanta, including a conventional split of last year's home-and-home. The Buccaneers were 24-9 home winners when the teams met in Week 2, and dropped a 13-10 decision at the Georgia Dome in Week 15. The latter result snapped a three-game series skid for the Falcons, a skein that included a 31-7 win for the Bucs in Atlanta during the 2007 campaign.

Atlanta head coach Mike Smith is 1-1 against the Bucs as a head coach, while Tampa Bay's Raheem Morris will be meeting both Smith and the Falcons for the first time as a head man.

WHEN THE BUCCANEERS HAVE THE BALL

Had the Buccaneers not fallen behind by such a big margin, the NFL's 23rd- ranked rushing offense (100.7 yards per game) might have been more of a factor. Tampa Bay notched 57 of its 119 rushing yards versus New Orleans on its first drive and averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Cadillac Williams (450 rushing yards, 3 TD) led the way with 32 yards on 11 carries, while Earnest Graham had 31 yards on just three carries. Freeman (543 passing yards, 5 TD, 5 INT) also made some plays with his feet, ripping off a pair of 15-yard runs as he continues to feel his way through the NFL. His 33.1 passer rating versus the Saints was by far his lowest in three starts, and he has also been sacked seven times in the last two games. Tampa Bay had scored 61 points in Freeman's first two starts, but are averaging just 16.4 points per game (27th overall) this season. Tight end Kellen Winslow (47 receptions, 5 TD) continues to be one of his primary weapons, as the big target has 16 catches in three games since Freeman became a starter. That includes a team-leading five for 29 yards versus the Saints. Wide receiver Antonio Bryant (19 receptions, 2 TD) returned from a two-game absence due to a nagging knee injury to make three catches for 40 yards. Clayton (14 receptions), meanwhile, made his first touchdown catch of the season, but hasn't had a multi-catch game since Week 5.

The Falcons' secondary could be in line for a few changes after allowing Manning to pass for 384 yards last weekend. Atlanta, which ranks 29th versus the pass at 253.4 yards allowed per game, let the Giants complete seven passes of 26 yards or longer, including a 29-yard reception by Mario Manningham in overtime that moved New York into Falcons' territory. Atlanta managed just one sack versus the Giants, by linebacker Stephen Nicholas (47 tackles, 3 sacks), while cornerback Brent Grimes (38 tackles, 2 INT) came away with the club's eighth pick of the season. Linebackers Curtis Lofton (101 tackles), who leads the NFL in tackles, and Mike Peterson (72 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) combined to make 22 tackles, while Grimes had seven and safety Erik Coleman (83 tackles) added eight stops. Coleman and the Falcons' linebacking group will need to keep their eyes on Winslow in this one. Atlanta did much better versus the run on Sunday, holding the Giants to 88 yards on 26 carries. Tampa Bay will likely try to test the league's 24th-ranked rush defense (126.1) if it can keep the game close.

WHEN THE FALCONS HAVE THE BALL

Though the Falcons were without Turner (831 rushing yards, 10 TD), as well as running back Jerious Norwood for a fifth straight game due to a hip injury, that didn't stop them from finding the end zone on the ground. In his second career start, Snelling's seven and one-yard scoring runs gave Atlanta its 13th and 14th rushing TD's of the season, fourth-most in the NFL. The Falcons, who rank 12th in rushing offense (122.5 ypg) and ninth in scoring (25.2 ppg), will likely lean on Snelling (259 rushing yards, 3 TD) again in this game with Turner not expected back. Atlanta will also hope that Ryan's second-half surge will get the passing game back on track. Ryan (2276 passing yards, 16 TD, 12 INT) threw for 268 yards, his highest total in three weeks, and didn't throw an interception for the first time since Week 3. He had been picked off 11 times in the previous six games. Gonzalez (52 receptions, 5 TD) ended with eight catches for 82 yards versus the Giants, while wideout Michael Jenkins (33 receptions) had a season-high six catches for 76 yards, though he is still in search of his first touchdown of the season. Wide receiver Roddy White (51 receptions, 6 TD) had four catches for 45 yards last Sunday and went without a touchdown catch for a third straight week.

Even though the Buccaneers kept Brees in check for the most part, holding the signal-caller to just 187 passing yards in addition to three touchdown strikes, that won't stop Morris from making some changes to his defense. The big one for this game is the rookie head coach taking over defensive play- calling duties from coordinator Jim Bates. Morris, who served as Tampa Bay's defensive backs coach the previous two seasons after holding the defensive coordinator spot at Kansas State in 2006, probably wasn't too happy with his team's inability to shut down New Orleans' run attack and get the ball back to give his offense a chance at a comeback. That shouldn't have come as too big a surprise, as the Buccaneers rank 31st in points allowed (29.4 ppg) and 32nd versus the run (168.9 ypg). Tampa Bay was unable to record a sack or force a turnover versus New England, and the club is minus-four in the turnover ratio. Linebacker Barrett Ruud (86 tackles, 1 INT) led the way with 10 tackles versus the Saints, while defensive backs Ronde Barber (44 tackles, 1 sack) and Tanard Jackson (38 tackles, 3 INT) made six stops each. The Bucs are near the bottom with just 17 sacks this year, led by left end Jimmy Wilkerson's 5 1/2, though they are tied for sixth in the league with 12 interceptions.

FANTASY FOCUS

Tampa Bay remains too inconsistent of a bunch to offer much fantasy value. Although Winslow remains a star and must-start at the tight end spot, the rest of the passing game should be avoided. The Buccaneers' run game looks like it could be effective at times, but the fact that Tampa Bay has three running backs who don't find the end zone very much makes Williams, Graham or Derrick Ward all risky plays. Tampa Bay's defense isn't worth a start, while kicker Connor Barth has excellent range but doesn't get a lot of chances. Still, the 23-year-old might get a few looks this weekend , and his range makes him a sleeper pick.

Hopefully, Turner owners were able to jump on Snelling for last week's game, and the understudy deserves to be picked up if he is still available. He should have another solid game this weekend against the worst run defense in the league. Ryan has slowed down after a fast start, but isn't a poor play this weekend. Gonzalez is a must-start, as is White, who can break a big play at any moment. Jenkins, though, doesn't hold much value due to his lack of scoring. Any time a defense goes against a rookie quarterback it is a good play, and this weekend is no exception for Atlanta. Kicker Jason Elam should get some good looks on Sunday as well.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

This is a must-win game for the Falcons, who have two things working for them this Sunday. First, they play at the Georgia Dome, where they are a tough team to beat under Smith. Second, they finally get to play the struggling Buccaneers, which is enough to get any team on track. Even without Turner, Atlanta stayed committed to the run last week and Ryan shook off some issues to flash signs of his outstanding rookie form. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is getting ready to find its self defensively after finally handing over the offense to Freeman. While the Buccaneers are on the road to 2010, the Falcons are trying to keep a 2009 postseason berth in sight. They get some help in that department this weekend.

Predicted Outcome: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 13
 

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NFL Matchup - Tampa Bay at Atlanta

NFL Matchup - Tampa Bay at Atlanta

NFL Matchup - Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-9) at Atlanta Falcons (5-5)
Date: Sunday, November 29th
Kickoff: 1 p.m. (et)
Site: Georgia Dome (71,228) -- Atlanta, Georgia
Surface: FieldTurf
Home Record: Tampa Bay 1-5; Atlanta 4-0
Away Record: Tampa Bay 0-4; Atlanta 1-5
Versus N-F-C South: Tampa Bay 0-2; Atlanta 1-2
Versus N-F-C: Tampa Bay 1-6; Atlanta 4-4
Current Win/Loss Streak: Tampa Bay 2L; Atlanta 2L
Current Road Win/Loss Streak: Tampa Bay 6L
Current Home Win/Loss Streak: Atlanta 7W
Television: FOX
Announcers: Dick Stockton, Charles Davis and Laura Okmin
All-Time Series: Tampa Bay (18-13)
Last Meeting: December 13, 2008 (Atlanta, 13-10 OT at Atlanta)
Series Streak: Tampa Bay has won three of the last four meetings.

Season Schedule/Results
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sep 13 - L vs. Dallas, 21-34
Sep 20 - L at Buffalo, 20-33
Sep 27 - L vs. NY Giants, 0-24
Oct 4 - L at Washington, 13-16
Oct 11 - L at Philadelphia, 14-33
Oct 18 - L vs. Carolina, 21-28
Oct 25 - L vs. New England, 7-35 (at London, England)
Nov 1 - Open
Nov 8 - W vs. Green Bay, 38-28
Nov 15 - L at Miami, 23-25
Nov 22 - L vs. New Orleans, 7-38
Nov 29 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
Dec 6 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
Dec 13 - vs. NY Jets, 1:00 PM
Dec 20 - at Seattle, 4:15 PM
Dec 27 - at New Orleans, 1:00 PM
Jan 3 - vs. Atlanta, 1:00 PM
Atlanta Falcons
Sep 13 - W vs. Miami, 19-7
Sep 20 - W vs. Carolina, 28-20
Sep 27 - L at New England, 10-26
Oct 4 - Open
Oct 11 - W at San Francisco, 45-10
Oct 18 - W vs. Chicago, 21-14
Oct 25 - L at Dallas, 21-37
Nov 2 - L at New Orleans, 27-35
Nov 8 - W vs. Washington, 31-17
Nov 15 - L at Carolina, 19-28
Nov 22 - L at NY Giants, 31-34 (OT)
Nov 29 - vs. Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
Dec 6 - vs. Philadelphia, 1:00 PM
Dec 13 - vs. New Orleans, 1:00 PM
Dec 20 - at NY Jets, 1:00 PM
Dec 27 - vs. Buffalo, 1:00 PM
Jan 3 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
 

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Preview: Buccaneers (1-9) at Falcons (5-5)

Preview: Buccaneers (1-9) at Falcons (5-5)

Preview: Buccaneers (1-9) at Falcons (5-5)


Date: November 29, 2009 1:00 PM EDT

The Atlanta Falcons are struggling to stay in the playoff hunt, but three straight games at home could be what they need to get back on track.

Facing the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday would also seem to help, but while the Falcons have a stellar record at Georgia Dome over the past two seasons, the Buccaneers gave them all they could handle in the previous matchup there.

After making its first playoff appearance in four years in 2008, Atlanta seemed prime for a return to the postseason after a 4-1 start. The Falcons, however, have dropped four of five since then, including last week's 34-31 overtime road loss to the New York Giants.



Their second straight defeat pushed them one game behind the Giants, Green Bay and Philadelphia, who they face Dec. 6, in the NFC wild-card race.

"We've got to win, man," wide receiver Roddy White said. "That's the biggest thing for us right now."

Victories have been frequent at the Georgia Dome since the team hired Mike Smith and drafted quarterback Matt Ryan with the third overall pick in 2008. Atlanta (5-5) is 11-1 at home over the past two seasons with a 4-0 mark this year.

The Falcons could get another boost if leading rusher Michael Turner is ready to return from a high right ankle sprain. Turner, who had three straight 100-yard games before suffering the injury Nov. 15 against Carolina, returned to practice Wednesday but was limited.

"Hopefully we'll get a good read on him after practice and then tomorrow," Smith told the team's official Web site.

Even if Turner returns, the Falcons' homestand won't be easy. After facing the Buccaneers and Eagles (6-4), they finish up against possibly unbeaten New Orleans on Dec. 13.

That makes Sunday's matchup critical as the Buccaneers (1-9) are one of three losing teams Atlanta will face over its final six games.

The Falcons will play Tampa Bay again to wrap up the regular season Jan. 3 and visit the New York Jets on Dec. 20. Their only other home game against a losing squad comes Dec. 27 versus Buffalo.

"We can't have no setbacks. We've got to go out there and win six games," White said. "If we win six games, we'll control our own destiny."

After seeming to show signs of improvement over the previous two weeks, the Buccaneers (1-9) absorbed a 38-7 defeat to the visiting Saints last week as rookie quarterback Josh Freeman had a season-high three interceptions and a fumble in the third quarter.

New Orleans converted those miscues into 17 of its 38 unanswered points.

"It's just one of those days," Freeman said. "An off day. ... I don't see it as a problem going forward."

Ryan had a couple of off days against the Buccaneers last season with four interceptions and no touchdowns in two meetings. He completed 50 percent of his passes for an average of 182 yards.

Tampa Bay also held Turner to 42 yards on 14 carries in a 24-9 home win last season, but allowed him to rush for 142 in their meeting at the Georgia Dome.

That was enough to help the Falcons escape with a 13-10 overtime victory on Jason Elam's 34-yard field goal.

Elam, however, has struggled this season in converting just 6 of 12 attempts from 30-plus yards. His miss from 35 yards cost the Falcons a chance to win in regulation last week.

Ryan rallied the team from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter with a pair of touchdowns in the final 6:01, including an 11-yard pass to Tony Gonzalez with 28 seconds left that sent the game into overtime.

The Falcons, however, lost the coin toss and the Giants converted a 36-yard kick for the victory.

Atlanta brought in four kickers for a tryout Tuesday but decided to stick with the three-time Pro Bowler as it tries to avoid its first three-game skid since losing six in a row Oct. 18-Dec. 23, 2007.

"I've had slumps before," Elam said. "Over 17 years, you have some hiccups at various times. I've always been able to kick my way out of it. Hopefully, that's what will happen this time."

Tampa Bay has won 12 of 17 over Atlanta dating back to 1997, but the Falcons are 3-2 at home against the Buccaneers since 2004.
 

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TAMPA BAY (1-9) vs ATLANTA (5-5)

Game Time: 1:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, November 29

Stadium: Georgia Dome Surface: turf






RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
TAMPA BAY HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 1 - 5 0 - 4 1 - 9 1 - 5 2 - 2 3 - 7 3 - 3 3 - 1 6 - 4
Last 5 games 1 - 3 0 - 1 1 - 4 1 - 3 1 - 0 2 - 3 2 - 2 1 - 0 3 - 2
YTD vs. Div. 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 2 1 - 1 0 - 0 1 - 1
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
ATLANTA HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 4 - 0 1 - 5 5 - 5 4 - 0 3 - 3 7 - 3 2 - 2 5 - 1 7 - 3
Last 5 games 1 - 0 0 - 4 1 - 4 1 - 0 2 - 2 3 - 2 1 - 0 4 - 0 5 - 0
YTD vs. Div. 1 - 0 0 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 0 2 - 0 3 - 0
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
TAMPA BAY 0 - 0 2 - 2 2 - 0 0 - 2 0 - 0 1 - 5 1 - 5 0 - 0
ATLANTA 0 - 1 2 - 2 2 - 2 1 - 1 4 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 0



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

TAMPA BAY
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun DAL 21 - 34 L +2.5 +5.5 L -7.5 42.5 39.5 O +15.5 G
09/20/09 Sun @BUF 20 - 33 L +6 +4 L -9 41.5 42.0 O +11.0 T
09/27/09 Sun NYG 0 - 24 L +7 +6.5 L -17.5 40.5 45.5 U -21.5 G
10/04/09 Sun @WAS 13 - 16 L +7 +8.5 W +5.5 36.0 37.0 U -8.0 G
10/11/09 Sun @PHI 14 - 33 L +13 +15.5 L -3.5 43.5 41.5 O + 5.5 T
10/18/09 Sun CAR 21 - 28 L +3 +3 L -4 40.0 40.0 O + 9.0 G
10/25/09 Sun NE 7 - 35 L +13 +15.5 L -12.5 43.0 45.0 U -3.0 G
11/08/09 Sun GB 38 - 28 W +9.5 +9.5 W +19.5 45.0 43.0 O +23.0 G
11/15/09 Sun @MIA 23 - 25 L +9.5 +10 W +8 44.0 43.0 O + 5.0 G
11/22/09 Sun NO 7 - 38 L +13 +10.5 L -20.5 50.0 51.0 U -6.0 G


ATLANTA
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun MIA 19 - 7 W -4 -4 W +8 43.0 44.0 U -18.0 T
09/20/09 Sun CAR 28 - 20 W -7 -6 W +2 43.5 43.0 O + 5.0 T
09/27/09 Sun @NE 10 - 26 L +6.5 +4.5 L -11.5 46.5 45.0 U -9.0 G
10/11/09 Sun @SF 45 - 10 W +1.5 +0 W +35 39.5 39.5 O +15.5 G
10/18/09 Sun CHI 21 - 14 W -4.5 -4 W +3 45.0 46.0 U -11.0 T
10/25/09 Sun @DAL 21 - 37 L +3 +4.5 L -11.5 44.0 47.5 O +10.5 T
11/02/09 Mon @NO 27 - 35 L +7.5 +11 W +3 53.0 55.5 O + 6.5 T
11/08/09 Sun WAS 31 - 17 W -11.5 -9 W +5 39.5 41.0 O + 7.0 T
11/15/09 Sun @CAR 19 - 28 L -1.5 -1.5 L -10.5 47.0 43.5 O + 3.5 G
11/22/09 Sun @NYG 31 - 34 L +6 +7 W +4 47.0 46.0 O +19.0 G



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
11/20/05 Sun TB 30 ATL 27 -6.0 -6.0 ATL --9 38.5 39.0 O +-18 T
12/24/05 Sat ATL 24 TB 27 -3.0 -4.0 TB --1 37.5 36.5 O +-14.5 G
09/17/06 Sun TB 3 ATL 14 -4.5 -4.5 ATL +6.5 36.0 35.5 U -18.5 T
12/10/06 Sun ATL 17 TB 6 +3.5 +3.5 TB --7.5 37.5 37.5 U -14.5 G
11/18/07 Sun TB 31 ATL 7 +3 +3 ATL --21 36.5 35.5 O +-2.5 T
12/16/07 Sun ATL 3 TB 37 -13.0 -13.0 TB +21 39.0 38.0 O +-2 G
09/14/08 Sun ATL 9 TB 24 -9.5 -7.0 TB +8 38.5 37.5 U -4.5 G
12/14/08 Sun TB 10 ATL 13 -3.0 -5.0 ATL --2 45.0 43.5 U -20.5 T





STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
TB (off) 17.5 17 26 98 3.8 38 20 0.5 199 5.2 297 1.8 0.5 .00
ATL (def) 14.5 20 26 115 4.4 35 23 0.7 231 6.6 346 1.3 1.3 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
TB (def) 26.8 20 32 155 4.8 27 17 0.6 199 7.4 354 1.3 0.8 .00
ATL (off) 24.8 19 29 117 4.0 30 20 0.7 186 6.2 303 1.0 0.3 .00
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
TB (off) 16.4 15 24 101 4.2 33 17 0.5 170 5.2 271 1.6 0.4 .00
ATL (def) 22.8 21 28 126 4.5 35 22 0.6 253 7.2 379 0.8 1.1 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
TB (def) 29.4 20 34 169 5.0 28 17 0.6 209 7.5 378 1.2 0.4 .00
ATL (off) 25.2 21 28 123 4.4 34 20 0.6 221 6.5 344 1.2 0.5 .00



SCORING AVERAGES:

TAMPA BAY (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 2.5 6.8 9.3 0.8 7.5 0.0 8.3
POINTS ALLOWED 7.5 7.5 15 5.8 6.0 0.0 11.8



ATLANTA (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 8.8 8.5 17.3 1.5 6.0 0.0 7.5
POINTS ALLOWED 0.8 5.0 5.8 1.8 7.0 0.0 8.8



TAMPA BAY (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.1 5.1 8.2 1.0 7.2 0.0 8.2
POINTS ALLOWED 7.8 7.5 15.3 7.2 6.9 0.0 14.1



ATLANTA (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 7.6 7.6 15.2 3.6 6.4 0.0 10
POINTS ALLOWED 3.0 9.9 12.9 2.4 7.2 0.3 9.9



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
TAMPA BAY 48.5 3.5
ATLANTA 53 -8.0
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 44 2 under
 

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Preview:
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 29, 2009
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The Atlanta Falcons are ranked 14 on offense, averaging 343.7 yards per game. The Falcons are averaging 122.5 yards rushing and 221.2 yards passing so far this season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are ranked 29 on offense, averaging 270.6 yards per game. The Buccaneers are averaging 100.8 yards rushing and 169.8 yards passing so far this season.


Home and Away

The Atlanta Falcons are 4-0 at home this season, and against 1-2NFCS opponents.

At home the Falcons are averaging 24.8 scoring, and holding teams to 14.5 points scored on defense.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-4 while on the road this season, and 0-2 against NFCS opponents.

On the road, the Buccaneers are averaging 17.5 scoring, and holding teams to 26.8 points scored on defense.
 

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Trends - Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Trends - Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Trends - Tampa Bay at Atlanta

ATS Trends

Tampa Bay


Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Buccaneers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Buccaneers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South.
Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


Atlanta

Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Falcons are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Falcons are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Falcons are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 12.
Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.


OU Trends

Tampa Bay

Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 games in Week 12.
Over is 12-4 in Buccaneers last 16 road games.
Under is 5-2 in Buccaneers last 7 vs. NFC South.
Under is 49-22 in Buccaneers last 71 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.


Atlanta


Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 7-0 in Falcons last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games in November.
Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 14-2 in Falcons last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Falcons last 7 vs. NFC South.
Over is 6-1 in Falcons last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 13-3 in Falcons last 16 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 6-2 in Falcons last 8 games following a ATS win.
Over is 20-7 in Falcons last 27 vs. NFC.
Over is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 25-10-2 in Falcons last 37 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 14-6 in Falcons last 20 games on fieldturf.
Over is 11-5 in Falcons last 16 home games.


Head to Head

Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Atlanta.
 

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Flu bug bites Vikings offensive stars

Flu bug bites Vikings offensive stars

Flu bug bites Vikings offensive stars

Minnesota Vikings rookie wide receiver Percy Harvin was added to the injury report on Saturday with an illness, according to a report in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.

The 21-year-old Harvin has reeled in 36 receptions for 501 yards and four touchdowns this season.

Harvin, who is listed as probable for Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears, is not the only high-profile member of the Vikings to be sick.

Adrian Peterson missed Friday's practice with an illness and is listed as questionable for the game.

The Vikings are 10.5-point home favorites hosting the Chicago Bears Sunday. The total is listed at 47.
 

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NFL weather report: It could get messy in Cincy

NFL weather report: It could get messy in Cincy

NFL weather report: It could get messy in Cincy

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+3, 39)

There isn't any wind or snow in the forecast but the temperature could dip as low as 39 degrees during Sunday's game. Cold weather didn't affect Miami last season. The Fish went 3-0 straight up and against the spread in their December road games.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-13, 39.5)

The wind could get in the way of Cincy's passing attack. Meteorologists are calling for 14 mph winds from the southwest. Showers are expected later in the afternoon and into the evening. It doesn't look like it'll come down until after the game is over, but there is a chance the system moves in sooner.
 

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NFL Week 12's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 12's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 12's biggest betting mismatches


Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5, 39)

Cincinnati's third-down defense vs. Cleveland's third-down offense

Cincinnati's improved defense is eighth in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage defense this season. The Bengals allowed only 6-of-19 third-down conversions in the first meeting between the two clubs at Cleveland in early October.

The inability to convert on third down is just one of many problems for the Browns offense in 2009. Cleveland is 29th in the league in third-down conversion percentage.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+3, 40)

Buffalo's pass defense vs. Miami's pass offense

The Bills are ninth in the league in passing defense. Buffalo held the Dolphins to only 86 yards through the air in Week 4 at Miami but Ronnie Brown churned out 115 yards on the ground to help the home team to a 38-10 rout. With Brown on the shelf for the rest of the 2009 campaign, the Bills have a better chance for an improved overall defensive effort on Sunday.

Miami is 30th in the NFL in passing offense. Chad Henne has avoided mistakes with only four interceptions in 218 pass attempts. However, the absence of Brown could force him into some miscues against a Bills defense that leads the AFC with 17 interceptions.

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (-3, 41.5)

New York's rush offense vs. Carolina's rush defense

Despite having the second-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, the Jets have stumbled to losses in six of their last seven outings. New York may finally have the right matchup to get back on track against Carolina.

The Panthers are 26th in the league in rushing defense while allowing opponents to gain 4.7 yards per carry on the ground. The inability to stop the run has been a major factor in the club's rapid decline from last year's 12-4 record.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-13.5, 45)

San Diego's pass offense vs. Kansas City's pass defense

The Chargers began their current five-game winning streak with a 37-7 win at Kansas City in Week 7. Phillip Rivers passed for 268 yards with three touchdown strikes in the victory for a San Diego air attack that is 10th in the league in passing offense.

Kansas City is 28th in the NFL in passing defense. The Chiefs were fortunate to upset the Steelers last week after allowing Pittsburgh to gain over 400 yards through the air.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-11, 47)

Minnesota's rush units vs. Chicago's rush units

While there is plenty of attention directed at Brett Favre this season, the Vikings are still a very physical football team at the line of scrimmage. Adrian Peterson is just one yard shy of a 1,000-yard campaign for the league's 10th-best rushing offense while Minnesota's stout defensive line has helped the club lead the NFC in rushing defense in 2009.

In contrast, the Bears have been a soft team up front this season. Chicago is next to last in the NFC in rushing offense while the squad's defense is just 23rd in the league in rushing defense.
 
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