Week 12 plays
- Thread starter capping-guru
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i'll chime in with some info on the stanford-ore discussion earlier:
1) taylor is a good rb and ore is severly banged up on the defense, esp the d line....he should have a good day
2) stan does have a good solid defense, esp vs the run....and has for a few years
3) disregard #2 when it comes to ore who mops up on that defense becasue they have WAY too much speed for stan and will once again score 50+ vs this defense
4) stan, with andrew luck, hasnt been able to top 31 points the last 2 years....now they're starting a frosh qb making his 2nd start at ore, at night, in the likely rain/fog
21 is a lot......but not in an ore game.....i say no chance stan wins and they may keep the game close for a while but ore will continue to score, stan wont........similar games to recent history......55-31
1) taylor is a good rb and ore is severly banged up on the defense, esp the d line....he should have a good day
2) stan does have a good solid defense, esp vs the run....and has for a few years
3) disregard #2 when it comes to ore who mops up on that defense becasue they have WAY too much speed for stan and will once again score 50+ vs this defense
4) stan, with andrew luck, hasnt been able to top 31 points the last 2 years....now they're starting a frosh qb making his 2nd start at ore, at night, in the likely rain/fog
21 is a lot......but not in an ore game.....i say no chance stan wins and they may keep the game close for a while but ore will continue to score, stan wont........similar games to recent history......55-31
Great analysis, thanks for posting. I have watched Stanford 4 times this year at length. Against UW, ND, Arizona and Oregon St. Teams have scored on them for sure but as you mentioned this team can stop the run and that is Oregon's bread and butter. Mind you, I wish this game was at Stanford, regardless.....Oregon has yet to play a team that will hit them in the mouth. USC stayed within 2 TD's and played no D at all, didnt get in their face one bit on D to disrupt their flow on offense and I think this is where Stanford plays ball control on offense gives them difficulties on defense. I will be going the other way but you definitely had me look at this twice. GL!
Wow.....what a horrible call on the 2nd half over....OT is the only thing that might save it lol!
Vandy -3(-120) for 4 Units
I have looked at this game in so many ways. From offense to defense, schedules, homefield, all that stuff. Vandy definitely brings it at home, even in losing to South Carolina and UF. This is a major rivalry game and its Vandy's time to return the favor in my opinion. Just check out the Youtube video I posted earlier in this thread. I think Vandy has a huge coaching edge, couple that with revenge and homefield.....well you got a winner! Lastly, this late in the season you see when teams are going in different directions and the Vols clearly are on going downhill and Vandy uphill. It helps that Vandy is already bowl eligible, so no extra pressure on having to win. Take Vandy!!
I have looked at this game in so many ways. From offense to defense, schedules, homefield, all that stuff. Vandy definitely brings it at home, even in losing to South Carolina and UF. This is a major rivalry game and its Vandy's time to return the favor in my opinion. Just check out the Youtube video I posted earlier in this thread. I think Vandy has a huge coaching edge, couple that with revenge and homefield.....well you got a winner! Lastly, this late in the season you see when teams are going in different directions and the Vols clearly are on going downhill and Vandy uphill. It helps that Vandy is already bowl eligible, so no extra pressure on having to win. Take Vandy!!
Missouri -4.5 for 2 Units
SU is off a major emotional win over UL and now go on the road where they are 1-3, their only road win over USF by 1pt. Missouri is 3-3 at home, losing to Bama, UGA and Vandy at home. Mizzou has A&M on the road on deck and sit at 5-5on the season. This is their chance to become bowl eligible because they sure arent going into College Station next week and winning. SU lost to Cincy and Minny that had mobile QB's and should have lost to USF with Daniels at QB. Heck they even struggled at home against Stoney Brook who had a mobile QB. Now comes James Franklin who is finally healthy and showed it last week in the win over the Vols. Mizzou needs a step down in competition after a rigorous SEC schedule that they arent used too. SU will struggle stepping up in competition on the road.
SU is off a major emotional win over UL and now go on the road where they are 1-3, their only road win over USF by 1pt. Missouri is 3-3 at home, losing to Bama, UGA and Vandy at home. Mizzou has A&M on the road on deck and sit at 5-5on the season. This is their chance to become bowl eligible because they sure arent going into College Station next week and winning. SU lost to Cincy and Minny that had mobile QB's and should have lost to USF with Daniels at QB. Heck they even struggled at home against Stoney Brook who had a mobile QB. Now comes James Franklin who is finally healthy and showed it last week in the win over the Vols. Mizzou needs a step down in competition after a rigorous SEC schedule that they arent used too. SU will struggle stepping up in competition on the road.
Back tonight with 2 more posted Saturday plays, too much work and not enough to post, sorry but got a couple more plays posted in here today and all of my hoops plays are up. One of my 2 plays that I am posting later will be a big play for sure and as always I will be around all day Saturday with 2nd half plays and a few other sides. Staying clear of totals lol!
I also like Vandy.
I'm off Michigan as I think 17 is way too many for a Big Ten game. Other games I noted are plays for me.
In case anyone compares picks, I don't have Wisky in my contest picks but, that is one of my top plays...I left them off the list by mistake.
I also am on BYU and Illinois under the total (50).
I appreciate GYN's note but, I will be on Stanford. I think when this game is over it will be evident that Oregon's defense has progressively gotten weaker as they have lost about a man per week to injury. Cal ran right up the middle and I think Stanford exploits the same area with the RB and the TE. I'll also be on the ML.
Betting note: If you want drink the Stanford Kool-aid you can get the Cardinal at +825. Parlay your favorite early game with this ML and for $20 you get around $330 back. I'm also going to do the same with the 1H.
I'm off Michigan as I think 17 is way too many for a Big Ten game. Other games I noted are plays for me.
In case anyone compares picks, I don't have Wisky in my contest picks but, that is one of my top plays...I left them off the list by mistake.
I also am on BYU and Illinois under the total (50).
I appreciate GYN's note but, I will be on Stanford. I think when this game is over it will be evident that Oregon's defense has progressively gotten weaker as they have lost about a man per week to injury. Cal ran right up the middle and I think Stanford exploits the same area with the RB and the TE. I'll also be on the ML.
Betting note: If you want drink the Stanford Kool-aid you can get the Cardinal at +825. Parlay your favorite early game with this ML and for $20 you get around $330 back. I'm also going to do the same with the 1H.
freshman qb
first road start
in autzen
at night
in the rain/fog
no chance he can score enough to beat ore....cover, maybe but i think ore runs away like they always do vs stan 50+ to less than 30
I hear ya on the point you make but there are alot of points to make a case for Stanford too. They will give Oregon a test, but Oregon St. is the team that will give Oregon everything they can handle!
For a Big Ten against a rival in Iowa.....3 scores is alot to lay in any conf. game.
GL my friend!
Stanford +13 - 1st half for 5 Units
Stanford +21(-120) for 3 Units
I have listened to many on this board about their arguments with Stanford but I am going to go with my gut instinct after watching both of these teams alot this year. Stanford will play the 1st half lights out, they know they have too if they want to keep this game close. Teams in general know how important a start is to the game and this one will have extreme importance. From everything I have read to others that are close to the Stanford program, I am a big believer in HC Shaw and I really feel like the Oregon defense is soooo banged up(otherwise they wouldnt be strongly considering a RB to play CB) that as the season wears on a team and you have a target on your back, more and more all the intangibles start to play against you. The Cardinal will give Oregon their best shot at losing to date on Sat. night. Stanford gets to play with a nothing to lose attitude and they will exploit the Oregon D! For me that is what it boils down too. We all know about the Stanford D against the run and overall on points allowed on defense and tackles for a loss. They are near the top in every category and this isnt by mistake. They are playing Pac-12 teams that air it out week in and out yet they still sit up at the top of most defensive categories.......offensive teams that they play against weekly yet Stanford is able to put up great defensive numbers tells me this number on the game and 1st half is inflated. Public perception. Everyone is saying how nobody will touch Oregon, but every team has a hiccup or two along the way in their season, Oregon has yet to get that, unless you consider a USC team with no defense that only lost by 11. So if USC can give Oregon a bit of a game with that horrible tackling D, just wait til Stanford shows what they can do!!
Stanford +21(-120) for 3 Units
I have listened to many on this board about their arguments with Stanford but I am going to go with my gut instinct after watching both of these teams alot this year. Stanford will play the 1st half lights out, they know they have too if they want to keep this game close. Teams in general know how important a start is to the game and this one will have extreme importance. From everything I have read to others that are close to the Stanford program, I am a big believer in HC Shaw and I really feel like the Oregon defense is soooo banged up(otherwise they wouldnt be strongly considering a RB to play CB) that as the season wears on a team and you have a target on your back, more and more all the intangibles start to play against you. The Cardinal will give Oregon their best shot at losing to date on Sat. night. Stanford gets to play with a nothing to lose attitude and they will exploit the Oregon D! For me that is what it boils down too. We all know about the Stanford D against the run and overall on points allowed on defense and tackles for a loss. They are near the top in every category and this isnt by mistake. They are playing Pac-12 teams that air it out week in and out yet they still sit up at the top of most defensive categories.......offensive teams that they play against weekly yet Stanford is able to put up great defensive numbers tells me this number on the game and 1st half is inflated. Public perception. Everyone is saying how nobody will touch Oregon, but every team has a hiccup or two along the way in their season, Oregon has yet to get that, unless you consider a USC team with no defense that only lost by 11. So if USC can give Oregon a bit of a game with that horrible tackling D, just wait til Stanford shows what they can do!!
