Week 12 plays

[capping-guru]

Stanford +13 - 1st half for 5 Units
Stanford +21(-120) for 3 Units
I have listened to many on this board about their arguments with Stanford but I am going to go with my gut instinct after watching both of these teams alot this year. Stanford will play the 1st half lights out, they know they have too if they want to keep this game close. Teams in general know how important a start is to the game and this one will have extreme importance. From everything I have read to others that are close to the Stanford program, I am a big believer in HC Shaw and I really feel like the Oregon defense is soooo banged up(otherwise they wouldnt be strongly considering a RB to play CB) that as the season wears on a team and you have a target on your back, more and more all the intangibles start to play against you. The Cardinal will give Oregon their best shot at losing to date on Sat. night. Stanford gets to play with a nothing to lose attitude and they will exploit the Oregon D! For me that is what it boils down too. We all know about the Stanford D against the run and overall on points allowed on defense and tackles for a loss. They are near the top in every category and this isnt by mistake. They are playing Pac-12 teams that air it out week in and out yet they still sit up at the top of most defensive categories.......offensive teams that they play against weekly yet Stanford is able to put up great defensive numbers tells me this number on the game and 1st half is inflated. Public perception. Everyone is saying how nobody will touch Oregon, but every team has a hiccup or two along the way in their season, Oregon has yet to get that, unless you consider a USC team with no defense that only lost by 11. So if USC can give Oregon a bit of a game with that horrible tackling D, just wait til Stanford shows what they can do!!

It was nice to hit Stanford 1st half......now lets hit the game too!!!!!:toast:

 

[azbob]

I think the first half went about how we thought it would go. Stanford's QB is a red shirt freshman but, Oregon's QB is a real freshman...let's see how he reacts.

I think they are begging for Oregon money in the 2h at -9.5/31.5. I could take my 1H winnings (almost got the 1H ML) and try for the middle but, I am going to hold with no wager.

Will take KState in the 2h if at 10 or under.

Let's bring Vandy home as they seemed to have picked it up in the 2H as they did last week.

 

[capping-guru]

KSU/BU o37 for 3 Units
KSU starts with the ball in the 2nd half and that should set off the fireworks for a wild 2nd half. BU had 43 offensive plays in the 1st half and forced Klein into a few picks too!! Love this one!!:0074

 

[capping-guru]

I think the first half went about how we thought it would go. Stanford's QB is a red shirt freshman but, Oregon's QB is a real freshman...let's see how he reacts.

I think they are begging for Oregon money in the 2h at -9.5/31.5. I could take my 1H winnings (almost got the 1H ML) and try for the middle but, I am going to hold with no wager.

Will take KState in the 2h if at 10 or under.

Let's bring Vandy home as they seemed to have picked it up in the 2H as they did last week.

If I didnt have money on the game I would hammer Stanford in the 2nd half, they are definitely begging for Oregon money. I agree with your approach.

I jumped on KSU over in the 2nd half. Leaving the side alone. GL as always!!

 

[capping-guru]

I think the first half went about how we thought it would go. Stanford's QB is a red shirt freshman but, Oregon's QB is a real freshman...let's see how he reacts.

I think they are begging for Oregon money in the 2h at -9.5/31.5. I could take my 1H winnings (almost got the 1H ML) and try for the middle but, I am going to hold with no wager.

Will take KState in the 2h if at 10 or under.

Let's bring Vandy home as they seemed to have picked it up in the 2H as they did last week.

Vandy is putting to the Vols like we thought!!!:toast:

 

[capping-guru]

Possible huge system play coming up for a 2nd half play......see how the 2nd q with AZ/Utah plays out.

 

[capping-guru]

Leaving the AZ 2nd half alone.

13-14 +.18 Units

With 2 pending.
SJ St. +3.5 for 3 Units
AZ u63 for 1 Unit

Hoping for a decent end!:0074

 

[capping-guru]

I also like Vandy.

I'm off Michigan as I think 17 is way too many for a Big Ten game. Other games I noted are plays for me.

In case anyone compares picks, I don't have Wisky in my contest picks but, that is one of my top plays...I left them off the list by mistake.

I also am on BYU and Illinois under the total (50).

I appreciate GYN's note but, I will be on Stanford. I think when this game is over it will be evident that Oregon's defense has progressively gotten weaker as they have lost about a man per week to injury. Cal ran right up the middle and I think Stanford exploits the same area with the RB and the TE. I'll also be on the ML.

Betting note: If you want drink the Stanford Kool-aid you can get the Cardinal at +825. Parlay your favorite early game with this ML and for $20 you get around $330 back. I'm also going to do the same with the 1H.

If you took Stanford +825 on the ML.......easily the bet of the year!!!!!!!:0074

 

[gjn23]

nice call on stan....game went the complete opposite of how i htought it would.....arizona shredded stan this year and figured ore would do the same at home (and have shredded them 3 years in a row with luck).

was on bay ml and that was nice but not nearly as nice as a stan ml wager

 

[capping-guru]

nice call on stan....game went the complete opposite of how i htought it would.....arizona shredded stan this year and figured ore would do the same at home (and have shredded them 3 years in a row with luck).

was on bay ml and that was nice but not nearly as nice as a stan ml wager

Nice call on BU, I layed off that game......but with Luck at Stanford they threw the ball too much, playing into Oregon's hands......Stanford running the ball was the way to go!

 

[azbob]

Managed to pay for my wagers tomorrow. I would have never guessed they would have won with the turnovers and Taylor not excelling but, I think Oregon was exposed as Stanford did not have to play their best game to beat them.

Very interested to see the line versus Oregon State next week.

Now we need ND to lose to USC next week...something that is not likely to happen. I think every game Barkley plays he drops about five drafting spots. I'm not going to make the mistake of backing USC and then hoping that they play differently than they have in every game versus a quality opponent this year.

Very decent day today although I missed some 2H plays. I think you got me on SJSt as I'm holding BYU.

Looks like you got the AZ under so we all have a few dollars to wager tomorrow. Thanks for the picks and input this week. I hate to see the season winding down as I think we have a pretty good read on quite a few teams. We didn't have to sweat quite a few winners today which is a good sign regarding our approach.

Continued Success.

 

[capping-guru]

Managed to pay for my wagers tomorrow. I would have never guessed they would have won with the turnovers and Taylor not excelling but, I think Oregon was exposed as Stanford did not have to play their best game to beat them.

Very interested to see the line versus Oregon State next week.

Now we need ND to lose to USC next week...something that is not likely to happen. I think every game Barkley plays he drops about five drafting spots. I'm not going to make the mistake of backing USC and then hoping that they play differently than they have in every game versus a quality opponent this year.

Very decent day today although I missed some 2H plays. I think you got me on SJSt as I'm holding BYU.

Looks like you got the AZ under so we all have a few dollars to wager tomorrow. Thanks for the picks and input this week. I hate to see the season winding down as I think we have a pretty good read on quite a few teams. We didn't have to sweat quite a few winners today which is a good sign regarding our approach.

Continued Success.

Loved seeing Oregon lose, defense wins......like you said, cant wait to see that Oregon/Oregon St. line tmrw night.....

I agree on ND, USC flat out quits, no heart......what a mess they are.

Like you said, at this time of year you get a better handle on teams. At least we have 2 more weeks!!

Glad you did well today, love your opinions and plays in here each week......thanks for that!:0074

 

[capping-guru]

15-14 +4.18 Units
YTD 196-179-7 +13.72 Units

 

[eeeerock]

15-14 +4.18 Units
YTD 196-179-7 +13.72 Units

I thought you were going to play less games,haha,just kidding bro!+4 is a positive day and thats what we want!!!!

 

[capping-guru]

I thought you were going to play less games,haha,just kidding bro!+4 is a positive day and thats what we want!!!!

7 less games this week lol......the damn mid week games did me in......when I see value on 2nd half lines I grab them....or if I see steam action on gamedays I will grab those too.

 

[eeeerock]

I was only screwing around,congrats on a winning day!!!

 

[capping-guru]

I was only screwing around,congrats on a winning day!!!

Like I said, all good man lol!!