We (me and the Cruncher machine) can't get excited about this week - spreads are HUGE, favorites are very IFFY, and Crunch "looks" at each week back to week3 and gradually decreases the weight it gives a team that is being analyzed in order to come up with a final factor for the favored team playing today. It also considers quite a few other factors that are used to come up with it's final rating. Problem for this week is that some of the recent results from the recent weeks look like flukes to me. Worser yet - several of their Week 10, 11 ATS results were decided by a "last minute' thingy.
Not going to categorize these plays; just list the ones that had the best Cruncher ratings and got by on what I thought after going over the matchup and what I've seen from the team's recent efforts:
Cent. Fla -14: I may buy a pt. on this one. Their SOS (strength of sched.) isn't impressive, but they've beaten the crap out of them and CONSISTENTLY too. Also, they're a very good road team and I got that factor as an important plus.
Iowa -7: I just LUV what I've seen from this team. Second best on Cruncher's list of "highest probability of favorite covering".
Houston -9 1/2
Wake - 1 1/2: Too close to call? I thought so, but this one was last on Cruncher's list of FAV. to cover and that usually means an upset result; a MINI one in this case. This game looks more like a pickem.
I'll be on all the above, and PROB. on these leans for one stinkin unit or possibly in a 2-teamer...
Washington - 17 1/2 and/or tt on Utah UNDER.
Nevada/SD St. OVER 56
I've recommended giving, at least, a 2nd look at any plick that has "bestest" in the comments or category. These have done really good in the prior posts, but this week it's a "push come to shove" to name one, if so... I think Central Fla. would be it. Like maybe ... .. 2 units?
G.L.
Not going to categorize these plays; just list the ones that had the best Cruncher ratings and got by on what I thought after going over the matchup and what I've seen from the team's recent efforts:
Cent. Fla -14: I may buy a pt. on this one. Their SOS (strength of sched.) isn't impressive, but they've beaten the crap out of them and CONSISTENTLY too. Also, they're a very good road team and I got that factor as an important plus.
Iowa -7: I just LUV what I've seen from this team. Second best on Cruncher's list of "highest probability of favorite covering".
Houston -9 1/2
Wake - 1 1/2: Too close to call? I thought so, but this one was last on Cruncher's list of FAV. to cover and that usually means an upset result; a MINI one in this case. This game looks more like a pickem.
I'll be on all the above, and PROB. on these leans for one stinkin unit or possibly in a 2-teamer...
Washington - 17 1/2 and/or tt on Utah UNDER.
Nevada/SD St. OVER 56
I've recommended giving, at least, a 2nd look at any plick that has "bestest" in the comments or category. These have done really good in the prior posts, but this week it's a "push come to shove" to name one, if so... I think Central Fla. would be it. Like maybe ... .. 2 units?
G.L.
