Took most of these eariler in the week...
SF +6
League: 8-24-1 (Av. win 2.5) home 3+ fav, off a 7+ ats loss as away 3+ dog, if opp is off any ats win and total >40.5 [SL]
2-16! (Av. win 1.1) if total >42.5
0-7 (Av. LOSS 2.7) if total >44.5
Exactly the same deal as last week, going against the Rams because of their terrible D. They are worst in the NFL for run D, allowing a whopping 5.2 y/rush...SF will have a massive day on the ground here as they av. 4.8 y/carry themselves!
SF have won the last 3 meetings SU all as big dogs, inc. 24-20 win last season @ SL as +9 dogs.
Baltimore -2.5
I bought the 1/2 early in the week.
They may be slipping under everyone's guard here, but Baltimore are 8-2. As usual they are doing it with D, allowing just 14 ppg, while McNair keeps doing just enough to get them the W.
They will completely shut down the Pits running game and force BR to throw the ball 30+ times, which will lead to TO's.
Pittsburgh are just 4-6, and since opening day they have won just 3 games, all against poor run D's. (KC, NO and Cleveland.)
League: 19-9-1 (Av. win 6.9) home 3- fav off a 10+ ats win as home 3+ fav. [Balt]
12-2-1 (Av. win 10.8) if opp is off any ats win.
Carolina @ Washington over 36
League: 33-16-1 over (Av. total 35.3...av. score 37.8) away 7- fav, off a 7+ ats win as home 3+ fav, if total <37 [Caro]
11-1 over (Av. total 35.8...av. score 43.0) if opp was last a 3- dog.
Basically, Washington's defense sucks!! They are dead last in pass D, allowing 7.74 y/pass!! They also allow 3.9 y/rush and have given up 19+ points in 9 of 10 games this season @ 23.7 ppg.
They do av. 24 ppg at home tho this season, and Campbell showed last week that he is more than capable of leading this offense.
A 20-17 game either way looks pretty likely really, and I'm surprised (as the trend suggests) that the total is under the magic 37 mark.
NE -3
League: 3-18! (Av. loss 8.9) away 3- dog off a 10+ SU win as away 3+ fav. [Chic]
0-10 (Av. loss 9.1) if opp is off any ats win.
I've gotta say I've never really realised how soft the Bears' schedule was until just now! At 9-1, how many teams have they played with a winning record? ONE!! NYG, two weeks ago, who are on a pretty big form and injury slide anyway!!
Grossman lit it up early, but has really struggled pretty much since the Arizona game. They were able to play a very conservative game and nurse him thru last week, but that will be a LOT harder this week with NE taking away the running game.
Admittedly NE haven't been great themselves, but they should have success on the ground (Chic allow 4.1 ypr) and Brady is smart enough not to give the ball away.
Houston +6
League: 4-14-3 (Av. win 0.5) home 3+ fav off a 10+ SU loss as home 7- dog. [Jets]
The Jets just aren't good enough to be favoured by more than 3 or 4 over anyone! They have the 3rd worst overall D, and that alone should be enough to put anyone off taking them as a big fav.
Houston are better in every major stats other than pass D, but I don't think the Jets can take advantage of that.
Houston have been ok lately anyway...They have only lost one game by more than 6 in the last 7 weeks, and that was @ Dallas...who are clearly better than the Jets!
Again, happy I got the 6, but would take this one down to 4 without any major worries.
Buff +3
League: 11-1-1 (Av. WIN 5.1) home 3- dog off a 3- SU win as away 3- dog. [Buff]
League: 4-17 (Av. LOSS 7.5) away 3- fav, off a 10+ ats win as home 3+ fav, if opp is off an away ats win. [Jax]
BIG trends favouring the Bills here, but tbh, it's a game that I'm now all that keen about.
I took the +3 early pretty much on the chance that Jax wouldn't play well on Monday night...unfortunately they did.
Still, a couple of losses to Houston recently doesn't look good, and winning against an injury depleted NYG at home in Florida isn't exactly the same as a windy, chilly afternoon @ Buffalo in late November...
And, somewhat surprisingly, Buffalo have only lost 3 games all season by more than 3 points...
Not incredibly happy with this bet, but I'll stick with it anyway I think.
I'm not entirely sure why the Min/'Zona game is as high as 39...I guess the reasoning is that Zona will simply not be able to run at all so will throw 40+ times...
...but the numbers remain that they av. 16 ppg and just 10 ppg on the road! They just don't score points.
Minni either for that matter...Every game of their that has gone over 40 has had some 'lucky' scores.
A fumble recovery and an INT both returned for TD's v. Det.
A fumble recovery TD and a 95 yard run @ Seattle!
A fumble recovery TD v. GB.
A fumble recovery TD and a returned INT TD last week @ Miami!!
Just looks a high total to me, given both teams inept offenses, and Minni's solid D.
Also Oak/SD under 43 looks high, given it's an Oakland game! They've only been this high twice, both v. crappy D's (SF and Cleve)...
...I said SD have ben lighting it up against bad D's last week, and Denver certainly aren't the same as we all thought early in the season.
Oakland will be the best defense they have faced for about 2 months!
Having said that, they did put 27 on them last meeting this season...but even that will be enough, as I can't see Oakland scoring 16.
God Luck all
SF +6
League: 8-24-1 (Av. win 2.5) home 3+ fav, off a 7+ ats loss as away 3+ dog, if opp is off any ats win and total >40.5 [SL]
2-16! (Av. win 1.1) if total >42.5
0-7 (Av. LOSS 2.7) if total >44.5
Exactly the same deal as last week, going against the Rams because of their terrible D. They are worst in the NFL for run D, allowing a whopping 5.2 y/rush...SF will have a massive day on the ground here as they av. 4.8 y/carry themselves!
SF have won the last 3 meetings SU all as big dogs, inc. 24-20 win last season @ SL as +9 dogs.
Baltimore -2.5
I bought the 1/2 early in the week.
They may be slipping under everyone's guard here, but Baltimore are 8-2. As usual they are doing it with D, allowing just 14 ppg, while McNair keeps doing just enough to get them the W.
They will completely shut down the Pits running game and force BR to throw the ball 30+ times, which will lead to TO's.
Pittsburgh are just 4-6, and since opening day they have won just 3 games, all against poor run D's. (KC, NO and Cleveland.)
League: 19-9-1 (Av. win 6.9) home 3- fav off a 10+ ats win as home 3+ fav. [Balt]
12-2-1 (Av. win 10.8) if opp is off any ats win.
Carolina @ Washington over 36
League: 33-16-1 over (Av. total 35.3...av. score 37.8) away 7- fav, off a 7+ ats win as home 3+ fav, if total <37 [Caro]
11-1 over (Av. total 35.8...av. score 43.0) if opp was last a 3- dog.
Basically, Washington's defense sucks!! They are dead last in pass D, allowing 7.74 y/pass!! They also allow 3.9 y/rush and have given up 19+ points in 9 of 10 games this season @ 23.7 ppg.
They do av. 24 ppg at home tho this season, and Campbell showed last week that he is more than capable of leading this offense.
A 20-17 game either way looks pretty likely really, and I'm surprised (as the trend suggests) that the total is under the magic 37 mark.
NE -3
League: 3-18! (Av. loss 8.9) away 3- dog off a 10+ SU win as away 3+ fav. [Chic]
0-10 (Av. loss 9.1) if opp is off any ats win.
I've gotta say I've never really realised how soft the Bears' schedule was until just now! At 9-1, how many teams have they played with a winning record? ONE!! NYG, two weeks ago, who are on a pretty big form and injury slide anyway!!
Grossman lit it up early, but has really struggled pretty much since the Arizona game. They were able to play a very conservative game and nurse him thru last week, but that will be a LOT harder this week with NE taking away the running game.
Admittedly NE haven't been great themselves, but they should have success on the ground (Chic allow 4.1 ypr) and Brady is smart enough not to give the ball away.
Houston +6
League: 4-14-3 (Av. win 0.5) home 3+ fav off a 10+ SU loss as home 7- dog. [Jets]
The Jets just aren't good enough to be favoured by more than 3 or 4 over anyone! They have the 3rd worst overall D, and that alone should be enough to put anyone off taking them as a big fav.
Houston are better in every major stats other than pass D, but I don't think the Jets can take advantage of that.
Houston have been ok lately anyway...They have only lost one game by more than 6 in the last 7 weeks, and that was @ Dallas...who are clearly better than the Jets!
Again, happy I got the 6, but would take this one down to 4 without any major worries.
Buff +3
League: 11-1-1 (Av. WIN 5.1) home 3- dog off a 3- SU win as away 3- dog. [Buff]
League: 4-17 (Av. LOSS 7.5) away 3- fav, off a 10+ ats win as home 3+ fav, if opp is off an away ats win. [Jax]
BIG trends favouring the Bills here, but tbh, it's a game that I'm now all that keen about.
I took the +3 early pretty much on the chance that Jax wouldn't play well on Monday night...unfortunately they did.
Still, a couple of losses to Houston recently doesn't look good, and winning against an injury depleted NYG at home in Florida isn't exactly the same as a windy, chilly afternoon @ Buffalo in late November...
And, somewhat surprisingly, Buffalo have only lost 3 games all season by more than 3 points...
Not incredibly happy with this bet, but I'll stick with it anyway I think.
I'm not entirely sure why the Min/'Zona game is as high as 39...I guess the reasoning is that Zona will simply not be able to run at all so will throw 40+ times...
...but the numbers remain that they av. 16 ppg and just 10 ppg on the road! They just don't score points.
Minni either for that matter...Every game of their that has gone over 40 has had some 'lucky' scores.
A fumble recovery and an INT both returned for TD's v. Det.
A fumble recovery TD and a 95 yard run @ Seattle!
A fumble recovery TD v. GB.
A fumble recovery TD and a returned INT TD last week @ Miami!!
Just looks a high total to me, given both teams inept offenses, and Minni's solid D.
Also Oak/SD under 43 looks high, given it's an Oakland game! They've only been this high twice, both v. crappy D's (SF and Cleve)...
...I said SD have ben lighting it up against bad D's last week, and Denver certainly aren't the same as we all thought early in the season.
Oakland will be the best defense they have faced for about 2 months!
Having said that, they did put 27 on them last meeting this season...but even that will be enough, as I can't see Oakland scoring 16.
God Luck all
