39-45-1 (-9.99)
Horray!! Under the -10 mark!! :142lmao:
6-1 last week, but the one loss happened to be a triple play. Nasty.
Washington @ Pittsburgh under 36 (2 units)
Crazy total for a Washington game...and even worse when you lok at the Steelers schedule.
Pittsburgh have played only 2 teams that I would consider good defensively.
They scored 13 @ Baltimore, and 13 @ Miami. (I know the Miami game was a swimming pool!)
But Oakland, Cinci, Cleveland, Dallas all very poor defensively, NE and Philli both giving up big yards on the ground.
Washington allowing only 3.2 ypc and 184 passing yards @ 5.92 per pass.
Pittsburgh defense every bit as good, giving only 3.6 ypc and 175 passing yards @ 5.73 pp.
I know Ramsey is more of a threat than Brunell ever was (well, not ever
), but with Portis really struggling (Wash down to 3.7 ypc) and a tough Pits pass D, I can't see Washington breaking out of their scoring funk this week.
Would have liked to have grabbed this @ 37 when it first opened, but realistically I think you could take it @ 27 and still be on the right side.
Tampa Bay @ Carolina under 39
Again, should have grabbed this @ 40, but still good.
The total has been inflated by Carolina's scoring in the last 3 weeks, which (as I've explained here!) they seem to do against poor defensive teams.
In fact, v. teams not in the top 10 for any category defensively they av. 27.6 ppg....v. the rest (ie good defensive teams) they av. 11.6!!! :scared
Tampa allowing only 163 yards passing @ 5.83 ypp.
The Buc's are a bit the same themselves, av. 19.2 ppg, but take out the Oakland, New Orleans, San Fran, Kansas and St. Lou, and they av a paltry 12.4.
6 of their last 7 meetings have gone under easily.
Think this one follows suit.
Philli @ NYG under 37.5
Two words..."Eli" and "franchise".
NY ran a very vanilla offense last week against an aggressive Falcon defense, and I have to think it will be much the same this week v. a Philli team that are 3rd in the NFL for sacks.
Giants should be able to keep Philli off the field with their decent running game and some short passing....but even when McNabb and Co. do get on the field they won't get things their own way.
NY have really improved their pass D this season, allowing only 5.96 yards per pass...4th best in the NFL behind Baltimore, Pits, Tampa and Washington.
Tennesee @ Houston under 43
League: 0-6-1 (Av. 29.4!) home 3- dog off 3- SU loss as home 7- dog. [Houst] (The push was @ 41)
When a team is a home dog 2 weeks in a row, it's a very good under situation for some reason.
Besides that, I don't really see how these teams put any decent score on the board.
Houston haven't scored over 20 since Wk.5....and Tenn have done it only once in a weird-ass last quarter v. Cinci.
Tenn only allowing 28.6% 3rd conversion (only Miami better), and both teams av. around only 1 in 3.
Houston have no running game, Tenn no great passing threat (or running game if Brown no good).
43 does seem a stretch.
Also reckon I'll be playing Cleveland +6 (don't ask!).. NO team total under 18.5....and will be interested to see a Miami/SF total.
Good luck this week guys.
Horray!! Under the -10 mark!! :142lmao:
6-1 last week, but the one loss happened to be a triple play. Nasty.
Washington @ Pittsburgh under 36 (2 units)
Crazy total for a Washington game...and even worse when you lok at the Steelers schedule.
Pittsburgh have played only 2 teams that I would consider good defensively.
They scored 13 @ Baltimore, and 13 @ Miami. (I know the Miami game was a swimming pool!)
But Oakland, Cinci, Cleveland, Dallas all very poor defensively, NE and Philli both giving up big yards on the ground.
Washington allowing only 3.2 ypc and 184 passing yards @ 5.92 per pass.
Pittsburgh defense every bit as good, giving only 3.6 ypc and 175 passing yards @ 5.73 pp.
I know Ramsey is more of a threat than Brunell ever was (well, not ever
), but with Portis really struggling (Wash down to 3.7 ypc) and a tough Pits pass D, I can't see Washington breaking out of their scoring funk this week.Would have liked to have grabbed this @ 37 when it first opened, but realistically I think you could take it @ 27 and still be on the right side.
Tampa Bay @ Carolina under 39
Again, should have grabbed this @ 40, but still good.
The total has been inflated by Carolina's scoring in the last 3 weeks, which (as I've explained here!
) they seem to do against poor defensive teams.In fact, v. teams not in the top 10 for any category defensively they av. 27.6 ppg....v. the rest (ie good defensive teams) they av. 11.6!!! :scared
Tampa allowing only 163 yards passing @ 5.83 ypp.
The Buc's are a bit the same themselves, av. 19.2 ppg, but take out the Oakland, New Orleans, San Fran, Kansas and St. Lou, and they av a paltry 12.4.
6 of their last 7 meetings have gone under easily.
Think this one follows suit.
Philli @ NYG under 37.5
Two words..."Eli" and "franchise".
NY ran a very vanilla offense last week against an aggressive Falcon defense, and I have to think it will be much the same this week v. a Philli team that are 3rd in the NFL for sacks.
Giants should be able to keep Philli off the field with their decent running game and some short passing....but even when McNabb and Co. do get on the field they won't get things their own way.
NY have really improved their pass D this season, allowing only 5.96 yards per pass...4th best in the NFL behind Baltimore, Pits, Tampa and Washington.
Tennesee @ Houston under 43
League: 0-6-1 (Av. 29.4!) home 3- dog off 3- SU loss as home 7- dog. [Houst] (The push was @ 41)
When a team is a home dog 2 weeks in a row, it's a very good under situation for some reason.
Besides that, I don't really see how these teams put any decent score on the board.
Houston haven't scored over 20 since Wk.5....and Tenn have done it only once in a weird-ass last quarter v. Cinci.
Tenn only allowing 28.6% 3rd conversion (only Miami better), and both teams av. around only 1 in 3.
Houston have no running game, Tenn no great passing threat (or running game if Brown no good).
43 does seem a stretch.
Also reckon I'll be playing Cleveland +6 (don't ask!).. NO team total under 18.5....and will be interested to see a Miami/SF total.
Good luck this week guys.
