Week 12.

[MrChristo]

44-23 now...

Jumped on a couple early yesterday, and very happy I did when I saw today's lines!!!

The game was over a week away when I bet it, but...

Pittsburgh v. Miami under 43

League: 4-13 under (2-15 this no...av. total 40.0...av. score 34.9) away 7+ dog, off a 7+ SU loss as away 7+ dog, if opp is off a 10+ ats loss. [Mia]
(0-3 2006. Tenn 10-13 Mia @ 35. Cleveland 17-13 TB @ 41. TB 3-20 Pits @ 40.5
0-1 2007. St. L. 6-33 Seattle @ 40)

2-10 under (0-12 this no...av. score 32.7) if opp was last away.

Right... Can Miami score 10?
Since Brown's demise in Wk. 7, they've scored 10, 10 and this week with Beck at QB (9/22 109) the offense went scoreless!
9 FD and very nearly more return yards than combined offense! :scared
Now they travel to Pittsburgh, who give up 10.8 ppg at home as it is!
I think this week's game showed that the Steelers have a few problems too...11 sacks in the last 2 weeks, and Parker got nothing going against a crappy Jets D...what can they do against a Miami D that clearly hasn't given up just yet...allowing 13, 13 and 17 in the last 3 weeks?
Either way, a score of 38-3 still sees this one under

Indi @ Atlanta under 42

League: 0-9 under (Av. total 41.6...av. score 34.0) away 10+ fav, off a 7+ ats loss as a 7+ fav. [Indi]

Indi have really stumbled in their last 2...in fact they've av'd just 18 ppg in their last 3...coincidence that they are 0-4 under with Harrison?? :nono:
Their defense has been fantastic all season tho, in the top 5 for every major stat, and allowing just 15.9 ppg.
Again, not sure how the Falcons do anything much here...av. just 14.2, and have only topped 20 once...
...in fact, they've only had one game all season that has seen more than 42 points.

San Fran +10.5

League: 8-17-2 (Av. win 8.8) as a 10+ fav, off a 10+ ats win as a dog. [Zona]
(0-2 2006. Indi 17-16 Buff @ -12. SD 21-14 Oak @ -13)
0-5 (Av. win 3.2) if they had <30 m ins TOP.

League: 14-4-1 (Av. loss 5.7) 10+ dog, off a 1-3 ats loss as home 3+ dog. [SF]

This could well be one of my sillier plays for the year, but how did the Cards become 10+ favs over anyone??
Sure, they're 5-5, but their wins have been by an av. of just 6 ppg, and none more than 10.
They needed 14 defensive points and a +5 TO ratio just to wsin by 8 last week v. one of the worst D's in the NFL!!
I know SF have the worst offense in football, but their D is still playing very well, they held the resugent Rams to just 15 FD's and 155 passing yards last week...
The Cards have not held a team to under 14 points all season...and have only scored 23+ in 3 games, against 3 pretty bad D's (St. L., Cinci and Det at home) SF allowed 24+ just 3 times @ 22 ppg.
Surely a 14-24 scoreline would surprise no-one... :shrug:

Good Luck all

(Still a few more to come, sometime between now and next Sunday! :00hour )

 

[MrChristo]

Baltimore +9.5

League: 28-12-2 (Av. loss 7.5) away 7+ dog, off a 1-3 ats loss as home dog. [Balt]
(1-0 SU 2006. Wash 16-10 NO @ +9.5)
16-3-2 (Av. loss 5.1) if opp is off an ats loss.
12-0-1 (Av. loss 4.5) if this game and last game were both insde the Conference.

League: 3-17-1 (Av. win 2.4) home 7+ fav, off an ats loss as a 3+ dog with <30 mins TOP, if opp is off an ats loss as home dog with <30 mins TOP. [SD]

I missed the peak at 10, but I think the Ravens are a decent shot to win this game SU!
SD are so over-rated imo...4 of their 5 wins have come against terrible run D's... 4 of the 6 worst run D's in the NFL!! All allow 4.5 y/rush or more.
Baltimore are the best run D @ 2.7 y/carry.
An extremely lucky win v. Indi, and a home loss to KC...you shut down the SD running game, and Rivers simply can't carry the load.
Of course, the Ravens have been far from steller themselves, going 1-9 ats so far!...But I'll take Boller over McNair anytime, and I think he'll have some success on this Charger D, with their 25th ranked pass D, and 7th worse run D @ 4.5 ypc.
Basically two crap offenses, but one team can play D, the other can't.
Pretty sure they cover here, and tempted to have a little dabble at the ML... :SIB

 

[Emersonboozer]

Against the Jets everyone was on the over with Pitt and the game went under so this week against the offensless Dolphins and thier better than average Defense Joe Public will also be on the under. Add to that the Steelers having a down week offensively it doesnt set up well for me as they may score 40 themselves. Just giving a heads up and goodluck.

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks E-b, but I prefer to let the players play the game and leave the mafia to smuggle the hooch, shoot the blind tiger, jerk suds on the side...(or whatever it is they really do these days

Dallas v Jets under 48

League: 2-14 nder (0-15-1 this no...av. score 27.6!!) as a 7+ dog, off a SU win as a 7+ dog, if their game went under, but opp's game went over. [Jets]

...also 0-9 under this number on the road off a SU win in OT as a 7+ dog.

Big total for a Jets game who av. just 17 ppg. Dallas have given up 20 or less in 6 of their 10 this season, and only more than 24 twice.
Despite giving up some big yardage numbers, Jets have allowed less than 20 in 6 games aswell.
Dallas figure to attack the Jets on the ground which will tick off some time, and I don't think the Jets will be able to have the same success offensively as Washington last week.
The 'Skins game was a bit out of the ordinary givenn so many quick, late scores...and the Jets numbers have been bolstered by having two OT's on the trot.
And, despite their big numbers, Dallas are 3-12 under in their last 15 v. losing teams.

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

playing that under as well MC !! hope u are having a great Thx giving !!! :toast:

BOL this week !!


vicc

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks Vicc! :toast:

Have yourself another great w'end, buddy.

Brees under 275.5 yards passing

Brees is 3-7 under this number all season...Had 2 monster games v. dodgy secondary's Jax and SF, where he threw for 9.1 and 8.6 y/pass...
...and he topped this number v. Houston last week, but had to throw 49 times (ran just 19) playing catch-up all game.
Carolina have allowed more than this nhumber just once...away @ Atlanta.
They allowed just 254 to Indi( 14/30), 218 to Favre (23/30) and 252 (29/47 in a 13-16 loss) @ NO in first meeting.

Carolina are unlikely to get too far infront at any stage in this one, so hopefully the run ratio will be a little better than last time!...
...but either way the Panthers will play a short, ball control type game and limit the amount of plays NO will have.
Positive: Carolina are 0-11 under inside the Div at home since 2004...allow just 194 passing.
This season they allow just 208 y/game @ 6.6 y/pass...
Negative: Last year Brees here threw for 349!!...However he did throw for 134 in the last quarter (86 on his last pass even!!) which somehow turned into a back and forth shoot-out.
Can't see that happening this time around with Carr/Vinny T. under centre.

Think it's about 20-30 yards too high... :shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

Denver @ Chicago over 42

League: 11-2-1 over (Av. total 41.2...av. score 48.2) as a dog, off a 7+ ats win as ome (-3 to +3) with < 26 mins TOP. [Denv]
7-0-1 (8-0 this no...av. score 51.9) if they won by 10+ ats.
(1-0 2006. SF 24-38 Phil @ 42)

Quick scores is what Denver have been all about last 2 weeks, scoring 27 and 34...Chicago looked to have their defense back on track, but Philli and Oakland all struggle to score, Detroit just had a shocker.
Denver should be able to run all over this Bears D, There's always plety of holes in this Denver D...and with Grossman throwing there's always a chance of scores either way.

 

[escarzamd]

5-2.......and still rollin' :burnout