Week 13 plays

capping-guru

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ASU +3 for 2 Units
Devils have the better D of the 2 teams by far. That is what this game will come down too as we know both can put up points on offense.
 

capping-guru

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Sorry no time for write-ups......family stuff. Back mid-afternoon with a few more plays and write-ups then.

Arky +11 for 2 Units
UW -13 for 2 Units
 

capping-guru

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CU +24 for 2 Units
Not sold on Utah especially on the road. I really think CU does enough to stay inside the number on Senior Day!
 

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USF/Cincy o50 for 4 Units
Both teams don't play much defense and USF is good at letting it all hang out on offense! Cincy at home has scored 34, 27, 23, 52, 49, 35 and 3. With this new QB I expect an air show!!
 

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ND -5 for 5 Units
Plain and simple, USC is nowhere near as good as the media made them out to be. They turn the ball over, can't tackle on defense, get outcoached on numerous occasions and now they don't have their starting QB. Take a look at who USC has beat this year -

Hawaii, Syracuse, Cal, Utah, UW, Colorado and ASU. ASU might be their most impressive win, with UW pushing for that title lol. In USC's last 4 games, 3 of which were losses, they gave up 39, 62 and 38 pts. in those losses.

ND on the other hand have been stellar on defense all year and are very balanced on offense averaging over 200 yards in the air and 200 yards on the ground each game. I believe only 3 teams in college football this year have done that.

When you have one of the top defenses against a freshman QB, give me the veteran team all day long!!
 

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Rutgers u43.5 for 2 Units
RU has been nails all year and even more so on the road when it comes to their D! I look at their body of work and they have allowed 3, 10, 26, 13 and 12 pts. on the road......tempted to go bigger as Pitt runs the ball alot and has a turnover machine in Sunseri at QB.
 

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ND -5 for 5 Units
Plain and simple, USC is nowhere near as good as the media made them out to be. They turn the ball over, can't tackle on defense, get outcoached on numerous occasions and now they don't have their starting QB. Take a look at who USC has beat this year -

Hawaii, Syracuse, Cal, Utah, UW, Colorado and ASU. ASU might be their most impressive win, with UW pushing for that title lol. In USC's last 4 games, 3 of which were losses, they gave up 39, 62 and 38 pts. in those losses.

ND on the other hand have been stellar on defense all year and are very balanced on offense averaging over 200 yards in the air and 200 yards on the ground each game. I believe only 3 teams in college football this year have done that.

When you have one of the top defenses against a freshman QB, give me the veteran team all day long!!

I tend to agree with you on all points here, and want to drop the hammer on ND. The line drop with the betting seemingly on ND is the only thing giving me pause. The only way ND loses is if they beat themselves. The pressure of everything on the line with a freshman under center is interesting. I can't wait to watch this one. I hope ND rolls, and I am getting closer to betting that way.
 

capping-guru

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I tend to agree with you on all points here, and want to drop the hammer on ND. The line drop with the betting seemingly on ND is the only thing giving me pause. The only way ND loses is if they beat themselves. The pressure of everything on the line with a freshman under center is interesting. I can't wait to watch this one. I hope ND rolls, and I am getting closer to betting that way.

I have tried figuring out lines like this throughout the season. Many times when the line drops like this during the week, the line creeps back up with sharp money. I find when lines get hammered down 2 or 3pts. on gameday you always take the line points......great example was Stanford last week.....sat at 20.5 and then on gameday dropped to 18!

Golson has 11 games under his belt now and the USC QB has completed fewer passes than games started by Golson!

GL man!
 

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UConn u45.5 for 2 Units
Another road team that struggles to score when they leave home. Huskies have scored 24, 24, 3, 10 and 6pts. The first 2 games they scored 24 twice but the last 3 road games they just cant do anything on offense! UConn runs the ball alot and loves to play great D in hopes of hanging around to get a win. UL has a great D and off the bye. They will be fresh and ready for a banged up UConn team.

UL -10.5 for 2 Units
With the Cards on Senior Day off the bye week at such a great time in the season, I see them rolling to an easy win!
 

capping-guru

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I tend to agree with you on all points here, and want to drop the hammer on ND. The line drop with the betting seemingly on ND is the only thing giving me pause. The only way ND loses is if they beat themselves. The pressure of everything on the line with a freshman under center is interesting. I can't wait to watch this one. I hope ND rolls, and I am getting closer to betting that way.

Lets not forget, ND has been incredible on the road. A different team away from home and all the distractions! Just take a look at their average margin of victory on the road compared to at home. At home they win by an avg. of 10pts and that shot up alot with the 38pt. win last week over WF. Road avg. margin of victory is 25pts. plus!
 

capping-guru

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Michigan +4 for 1 Unit
It keeps coming up as a play for me, but going small as I dont feel confident in it. OSU has no defense so that should definitely Michigan. Again, just a small play on them.
 
A

azbob

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Nice call on Arkansas.

I'm with you on ND for a larger play as I also think they will open up the offense against an accepting USC team.

Am on FSU -4 in the 1H...I do like the under but, will hold off on a side for the game.

We were up 28-10 in Washington and they started counting their winnings. I guess we made up for in in Arizona (hope you saw that) as that was a very satisfying and needed win. I also followed Hawkeye on the over so it couldn't have worked out better for all of us as I see you cashed the 1H under.

OreSt is +6 for the 1H and I think that is worthy.

I'm going for a medium play on Mississippi -2 versus MSU. Don't like the rivalry games but, state seems to have struggled more each successive week. I also think Missouri +21 will hang around with A&M.

Most of my games are in action now including Rutgers (now 0-7). They have been very strong in the 2H this year and if they hang here, that will be a reinforcing wager for me.

Good luck today.
 
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