The plays continue to be hot. Either 15-5-2 last week if you count Atlanta as a loss, or 15-2-5 if you count it as a push. I counted it as a loss in my records, even though I know there were a fair number of +7's available out there by kickoff.
Anyways, I really can't see these plays staying this hot; it's just impossible. We've had 4 straight weeks where dogs have outcovered favorites, which in itself is going to help simply because most of the plays are on dogs. We've also had eleven teams in the past two weeks cover the spread without winning the game. That helps a hell of a lot too!! There were only 14 teams in the previous ten weeks who covered without winning...and now eleven of these in two weeks?? I think we're getting some bounces going our way.
Use caution - don't go crazy on these.
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No really huge play this week, but...
San Diego comes up twice.
Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and NY Jets all come up "up to" twice (depending on what the lines are).
The only potential play for Thursday is on Detroit, if they go as high as +7?, which doesn't seem likely.
St Louis and Minnesota both come up as system plays this week but play against each other.
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System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89).
Play on: St Louis
System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).
Play on: Indianapolis
System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).
Play on: Pittsburgh (if line stays at Pitt -3 or less)
System #9 - Play on the home dog on Monday Night football (58-36, 61.7% since '83).
Play on: NY Jets (if they are the dog)
System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62% since 1983).
Play on: Jacksonville (if line = +3 and total stays = or < 37)
System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (28-4, 87.5% since start of '02, including 15-3, 83.3% when the team in question was favored on the road). **updated**
Play on: Minnesota, San Diego
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 60-95-5, 61.3% Unders --- O/U 30-50-3, 62.5% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**
Play the Under on the games involving: San Francisco, Cincinnati, New England, New Orleans, Tennessee
System #21 - Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (50-31 ATS, 61.7% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Carolina (if they become the dog), NY Jets (if they continue to be the dog)
System #24 - Play on the home underdog when both teams have winning records, or both teams have losing records (~70% since ???)
Play on: Jacksonville
System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (14-2 ATS, 87.5% since '02) (same as System #16 except this must be a road fav) **updated**
Play on: San Diego
System #28 - Play against a road fav of 7? to 14 pts after gaining 150 yds or less passing in previous game. (14-1, 93.3% since '92).
Play on: Detroit (if line reaches +7? or more)
System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (41-20, 67.2% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Oakland
System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: Pittsburgh, Cleveland
And one that isn't a play, but I found it kind of funny...
System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games.
(Both Buffalo and NY Giants have scored exactly 30 pts in their past three games, and now play each other)
Good luck everyone.
Anyways, I really can't see these plays staying this hot; it's just impossible. We've had 4 straight weeks where dogs have outcovered favorites, which in itself is going to help simply because most of the plays are on dogs. We've also had eleven teams in the past two weeks cover the spread without winning the game. That helps a hell of a lot too!! There were only 14 teams in the previous ten weeks who covered without winning...and now eleven of these in two weeks?? I think we're getting some bounces going our way.
Use caution - don't go crazy on these.
===========================================
No really huge play this week, but...
San Diego comes up twice.
Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and NY Jets all come up "up to" twice (depending on what the lines are).
The only potential play for Thursday is on Detroit, if they go as high as +7?, which doesn't seem likely.
St Louis and Minnesota both come up as system plays this week but play against each other.
===========================================
System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89).
Play on: St Louis
System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).
Play on: Indianapolis
System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).
Play on: Pittsburgh (if line stays at Pitt -3 or less)
System #9 - Play on the home dog on Monday Night football (58-36, 61.7% since '83).
Play on: NY Jets (if they are the dog)
System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62% since 1983).
Play on: Jacksonville (if line = +3 and total stays = or < 37)
System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (28-4, 87.5% since start of '02, including 15-3, 83.3% when the team in question was favored on the road). **updated**
Play on: Minnesota, San Diego
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 60-95-5, 61.3% Unders --- O/U 30-50-3, 62.5% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**
Play the Under on the games involving: San Francisco, Cincinnati, New England, New Orleans, Tennessee
System #21 - Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (50-31 ATS, 61.7% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Carolina (if they become the dog), NY Jets (if they continue to be the dog)
System #24 - Play on the home underdog when both teams have winning records, or both teams have losing records (~70% since ???)
Play on: Jacksonville
System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (14-2 ATS, 87.5% since '02) (same as System #16 except this must be a road fav) **updated**
Play on: San Diego
System #28 - Play against a road fav of 7? to 14 pts after gaining 150 yds or less passing in previous game. (14-1, 93.3% since '92).
Play on: Detroit (if line reaches +7? or more)
System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (41-20, 67.2% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Oakland
System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: Pittsburgh, Cleveland
And one that isn't a play, but I found it kind of funny...
System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games.
(Both Buffalo and NY Giants have scored exactly 30 pts in their past three games, and now play each other)
Good luck everyone.
