Week 14 incl Ravens Report

[Mr Rattler]

The "It's a Trap" game of the week:

Philadelphia -1



The prevailing feeling is that Seattle has rounded back into Super Bowl shape. They have won 5 of their last 6 and have won 2 in a row. The odds makers set this week's line as a pick 'em at Philly, in essence saying that Seattle would be a 3 to 3.5 point favorite vs the Eagles on a neutral field.

I'm seeing 88% of the bets on Seattle and now Philly has been moved from a pick to a 1 point favorite ( wow, I can play Seattle +7 on a teaser! What a lock!?) With Mark Sanchez starting, Vegas could have made the Seahawks a 3 point road favorite and still have gotten 80% of the action on the Seahawks. So, how good are the Seahawks and how good are they on the road?


Let's look at the last 4 road games for Seattle:

11/27 win at San Fran 19-3. The 49ers are in offensive disarray. SF is going to have all kinds off trouble in Oakland this week.

11/16 loss at Kansas City 24-20. Seahawks lost the game despite being PLUS 2 in the turnover category!?

10/26 win at Carolina 13-9. Seahawks had to score a touchdown with 53 seconds left in the game to beat the shitty Panthers

10/1 loss at St Louis 28-26. They out gained the Rams 463 to 272 yards yet found a way to lose.

Last 3 wins at home?

11/23 vs a banged up Arizona
11/9 vs a shit Giants team
11/2 a huge 6 point win against the mighty Raiders

This Seahawk team is NOT as mighty as they may appear to be. They are going into Philadelphia in December. If you have never been to an Eagle home game in December during a playoff run, let me tell you, hostile is not the word.

Philly is undefeated at home this year. They are playing for a division, for home field and for a bye week. They have TONS of motivation. Sanchez is more than capable to control the game. He doesn't need to be outstanding, just efficient and not make mistakes.

The Eagles in their 6 home games are averaging 37 points a game!!
The Seahawks are 3-3 on the road. They are 1-2 vs winning teams on the road. This is their 2nd road game in a row on the road and are traveling 3400 miles to play.

Unique point of interest:
This is a San Fran sandwich game for Seattle, then they have Arizona on deck after the San Fran game.
This is a Dallas sandwich game for the Eagles.

Philly is in a "very good spot" this week coming home after a big win, Seattle is in a tough spot having to travel to the East Coast after an emotional divisional game and that what we look for when making a play.

 

[Old School]

that's tight work there...


:0074

very interested if Seattle can find a true passing game ..

they would need it to win ..

Philly will post 27 ...

or maybe more


gl/rat

 

[Mr Rattler]

Ravens Report

Losing Haloti Ngata is just the icing on the cake for this Ravens team. They are literally playing with a scrap heap secondary. The defense at least had a fighting chance only because the front 7 was good at stopping the run and could pressure the QB. The corners only had to cover for a few seconds. Now, the Ravens have lost arguably their best D-Lineman in Ngata.

Miami's defense is for real, especially at home. This team is battle tested at home. Wins at home vs San Diego (8-4), New England (9-3) and buffalo (7-5). Their 2 losses at home vs Green Bay (9-3) on a last minute score, losing by only 3 despite being minus 3 in turnovers that game. Miami's other home loss was vs Kansas City (7-5) in week 3. That's about as brutal of a home schedule there is and the Dolphins are 3-2. Very admirable. Now they get the 7-5 Ravens at home.

BUT!!!!

In Miami's 3 wins and covers at home, they won the rushing battle convincingly in all 3 games.
In Miami's 2 home losses at home this year, they gave up over 100 yards rushing and were out rushed in both games.

The Ravens are a rushing machine. They have cracked 100 yards in 6 of last 7 weeks, and cracked 150 yards in 3 of last 6.

I have been preparing myself all week for a Ravens loss in Miami. The team has been gloomy all week in practice since the Ngata announcement. It all looks so black and white to take the Dolphins, but my gut has been bothering me about this game all week. Taking Miami just doesn't feel right. I also couldn't understand why the line held at Miami -3 AFTER the Ngata suspension.

It's because:
The Ravens are going to be successful on the ground and the Dolphins do not fare well against teams that are successful running the ball.

I really put some study into this game and I have come around and did a complete 180.


Ravens +3 W

 

[Mr Rattler]

Remainder of 1pm Picks:

Wash +3 L

Rams playing good week, bad week, repeat. Have not won 2 in a row all year. Colt McCoy gets start and that's a good thing. Also, Vegas setting line of Rams -1.5 sounded like a trap to me. Could have easily made it -3 and got the same action on the Rams. St Louis getting around 70% of the action.


Bengals -3 L

Pitt not playing great ball on the road. Everything falling Bengals way this year. Big Ben really hurt his throwing had last week. That tough sum a bitch will play, but he would need superb game for the Steelers to win here

 

[Mr Rattler]

2 team 6.5 point teaser L
Saints -2
Houst +0.5

Saints in must win at home. Can they lose 4 in a row at home with the 4th being the Panthers?
Can Jacksonville win 2 in a row? Houston in MUST win game to keep playoff hopes alive



** back by 3:30pm with afternoon picks***

G/L to all

 

[Mr Rattler]

Afternoon Plays:

Philly -1 L posted earlier

San Fran -9 loser

Niners "get right" against a bad team.



2 Team 7 Point Teaser: win
Arizona + 9.5
Denv -2

Stanton plays well at home in Arizona. This will be close competitive game.
Bills 2-22 SU as a road dog of over 7. Denver 9-1 ATS and SU last 10 December games

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Remainder of 1pm Picks:

Wash +3

Rattler, love your writeups and your consistency on the MJ board the past few years!!


But I gotta ask ya, is there anyone that can buy the Redskins and get that lil troll of an owner out of DC? As long as Snyder has control of this team, this team will not win again.

I have met him in person and know him in person, but he's a real piece of work and he doesn't know who to trust or go to and allow total control of football operations to the GM and Head Coach. He's a mettler and he's competitive and he wants to win, but in football, he has no clue!!

Until the Skins get a GM and Coach with some control and not make this team a circus, the Skins will never win the NFCE, while Snyder is in the owners' chair!!

How long has it taken Jerr to see the Cowboys in the position they are in today?

Your feedback is appreciate and I apologize for hoggin up your thread!

GL today MAN! Hope you are doing well!

:0008

 

[Mr Rattler]

Rattler, love your writeups and your consistency on the MJ board the past few years!!


But I gotta ask ya, is there anyone that can buy the Redskins and get that lil troll of an owner out of DC? As long as Snyder has control of this team, this team will not win again.

I have met him in person and know him in person, but he's a real piece of work and he doesn't know who to trust or go to and allow total control of football operations to the GM and Head Coach. He's a mettler and he's competitive and he wants to win, but in football, he has no clue!!

Until the Skins get a GM and Coach with some control and not make this team a circus, the Skins will never win the NFCE, while Snyder is in the owners' chair!!

How long has it taken Jerr to see the Cowboys in the position they are in today?

Your feedback is appreciate and I apologize for hoggin up your thread!

GL today MAN! Hope you are doing well!

:0008

Thanks Bro-

I have never been a Redskins fan, even when we had no team in Baltimore for 14 years. However, you are dead on. Snyder needs to stay the fuck out of the football end of the business. Like you said, Jerry Jones has a good team on the field because he is delegating SOME of the football operations, but he may never get back to the Super Bowl again until he keeps his nose out, which will probably be when he dies.

Redskins will never be successful with Snyder unless he keeps his nose out completely. Unfortunately, that probably won't happen while he is still breathing.

What's it gonna take to revamp the Redskins? Probably a bullet.

 

[Mr Rattler]

San Diego +3.5


-Chargers 8-2 ATS last 10 as a dog of more than 3
-Patriots are 2-8 ATS last 10 games played on grass, incl 0-3 this year S/U and ATS
-Yes, San Diego has a beautiful brand new grass field
-San Diego 5-1 SU at home, 1-0 ATS as a home dog this year
-Patriots 3-3 On the road S/U and ATS