imo a tough week of games. i've looked at the games that i thought i'd find an edge, and came away with nothing. jax/mia, buff/kc, jets/tb, sf/sea. only game of the those i think i may play is sf on monday night, but that's a maybe. jets look way too easy, but can't pull the trigger.
then i looked at the heavy chalk and came up with a play.
have to go back to baltimore this week. 6-6 baltimore has gotten through the meat of their schedule, imo the toughest 12 games any team has played this year. beginning of the year i had them at 9 wins on the season. they have det, chi, @ pitt, @ oak left. this game is their season and looking at their remaining games, you have to think they have a shot to go 4-0.
this game just reeks of blowout. the motivation of pitt's loss to clev, and a game at home against the leagues worst pass defense. this game will be built around re-establishing flacco's confidence in the air (which will be enabled by a successful run game) and a defensive statement which will set the tone for the last 4 games. i know, it sounds like a lot of crystal ball bullshit, but the stats are there to back it up.
culpepper will start for detroit, who has all of 65 pass attempts this season. detroit is 0-3 ats on grass this season, while baltimore is 3-0 ats as a favorite of 10 or more points.
i know balt is coming off monday night and reed and clayton probably won't play, but i just don't think it matters.
BALT -13.5 3*
4-1 posted plays + 1010
3* 3-0 +900
1* 0-1 -110
1* ML 1-0 +220
good luck to all.
then i looked at the heavy chalk and came up with a play.
have to go back to baltimore this week. 6-6 baltimore has gotten through the meat of their schedule, imo the toughest 12 games any team has played this year. beginning of the year i had them at 9 wins on the season. they have det, chi, @ pitt, @ oak left. this game is their season and looking at their remaining games, you have to think they have a shot to go 4-0.
this game just reeks of blowout. the motivation of pitt's loss to clev, and a game at home against the leagues worst pass defense. this game will be built around re-establishing flacco's confidence in the air (which will be enabled by a successful run game) and a defensive statement which will set the tone for the last 4 games. i know, it sounds like a lot of crystal ball bullshit, but the stats are there to back it up.
culpepper will start for detroit, who has all of 65 pass attempts this season. detroit is 0-3 ats on grass this season, while baltimore is 3-0 ats as a favorite of 10 or more points.
i know balt is coming off monday night and reed and clayton probably won't play, but i just don't think it matters.
BALT -13.5 3*
4-1 posted plays + 1010
3* 3-0 +900
1* 0-1 -110
1* ML 1-0 +220
good luck to all.
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