Week 14.

[MrChristo]

9-2 last week was slightly over-budget! :SIB

58-27 all up and a couple of game over .667 to spare... :00hour

Chicago @ Washington over 37

League: 17-3-1 over (Av. total 38.9...av. score 46.1) home fav off a 1-3 SU loss as home 3+ fav, but with 30+ mins TOP. [Wash]

When a team that controls the clock but loses SU it's usually a knock on their defense, and I think that's the case again.
They gave up 100 yards rushing at 5.0 and 257 yards passing, including 2 x 60+ yard drives in the last quarter to surrender the lead.
It was lucky for Washington they held the Bills to FG's or things would have got messy sooner.
The Washington D has given up at least 17 in each of their last 8, and they allow over 21 at home as it is.
And, speaking over over-rated defenses...the Bears have the 5th worst run D in the NFL, allowing 4.4 y/rush, given up 20+ in 7 of last 10 and give up nearly 23 ppg on the road.
Washington have had a couple of low scorers v. solid defenses and poor attacks (Garcia got knocked out of the TB game aswell...), but Portis and Cambell should have a big day here.
you can just about guarentee that Grossman will see one go back the other way, and with Hester there's always a chance for a Special Teams TD...or at the very least short fields all day long.


'Zona @ Seattle under 45

League: 4-19 under (1-20-2 this no! Av. total 40.5...av. score 32.4) 7+ fav, off a SU win as away 3+ dog with -2 TO ratio, and opp is off an ats win. [Seattle]
(0-1 2007. Tenn 20-13 Atl @ 40.5.
0-2 2006. Indi 17-16 Buff @ 44, NYG 17-3 TB @ 39)

(0-5 (Av. score 30.0!) if they had <30 mins TOP.
...and 1-10 (0-9-2 this no...av total 44.3...av. score 35.5) if total is >40.

League: 3-16 under (Av. total 44.1...av. score 34.4) away 3+ dog, off a SU and ats win as home (-3 to +3), with 30+ mins TOP and a -3 TO ratio if total is >40. [Zona]
(0-2 2006. Balt 7-13 Cinci @ 43.5, SF 17-20 SL @ 44.5)
0-6 (Av. score 28.1!) if opp last won ats.

Clearly this one is all about hanging on to the ball!!
The Cards got real lucky last week with a 77 yard pick 6, and 17 of their points came from drives which started in their own half!!
Seattle too...their first 2 TD's came from a grand total of 26 yards!!...all their scoring drives started on their 47 or better, and their entire score came in 11 plays!!! :scared ...obviously the other 52 didn't go far!! :shrug:
Seattle have the 4th best D when it comes to stopping scores, and allow just 14 ppg at home!!
Both coaches will be stressing ball control in this one...plenty of running and safe throws.


Looks like a quiet week ahead for me...better start going to look for some player props to see me through! :00hour

Good luck all

 

[Ronnie]

Impressive record man! I hope you continue your success.

 

[raledet]

Record

Record

Just curious. What was your record last year in the NFL?

 

[Hooks]

Mr. Christo... :hail I would love to see where you get these stats. It's just something I love to get into.
You are doing a great job this year and wish you continued success.
Being a Redskin, my 1st thought after the terrible way they lost was, if they can't win that game, they're done the rest of the year.
After more thought, I feel they're embarrassed, shameful, and pissed off at themselves they didn't get the win for Sean.
This is a shitty situation they find themselves in, however, i feel they'll come out this time with FIRE in their eyes and will get the job done vs. a mediocre Bear team at home again Thurs.
My 1st thought was Skins and OVER, so thanks for the OVER buddy, we're on the same page, Hooks

 

[MrChristo]

I honestly couldn't tell you, raledet.

I've had a couple of recent HD/computer upgrades and got rid of a heap of stuff thought I didn't need...previous season records being amongst it all...

I seem to remember breaking slightly over even, after a couple of BAD weeks early...or maybe that was the year before.

...Nowhere near as good as this season tho, if that's what you're getting at! :SIB

[I can tell you that I'm slighty over 1 unit up in NBA this season...none of wich has been posted here, so I'm happy I haven't wasted the last month of anyone's valuable time here!! ]

Hooks, hey mate, feel free to get in contact at any time... :00x1


Got 2 quite strong, but totally seperate situations in Denver...

League: 17-5 over (Av. total 35.6...av. score 40.6) home 3+ fav off a 14+ ats loss as away 3+ fav, if total is <38. [Denv]
(1-0 2006. NE 40-7 Tex @ 38)
13-1 if it's a Div game!...and 8-0 (Av. score 46.5) if last game went over.

League: 3-15 (Av. loss 16.3) away 3+ dog, off a 7+ ats loss as home 3+ dog with >32 mins TOP. [KC]
(0-2 2007. Det 10-42 Min last week, Caro 7-20 Tenn @ +5)

...the problem for the 'over' is that if the total is <38 here, the team (KC) is 0-4 ats...but also 0-4 under with scores of; 3-17, 3-14, 0-34 & 7-20...

Not sure where to go with this one...

Might go 1/2 on each and hope not to go 0-2! :shrug:


Oh, and if anyone is thinking about the Divisional Home Dog on a Monday Night angle...there is one...and it's bad!

League: is 10-21 ats (Av. loss 11.6) as a home 3+ Div dog on a Monday Night since 1989

 

[Cie]

Just curious. What was your record last year in the NFL?

If you're interested, I would think you can search the last week of the regular season to locate Mr Christo's thread:shrug:

Keep it rolling, MC:toast:

 

[AR182]

mr c...

really impressive record....keep up the good work...

 

[MrChristo]

Oh, you gotta love hitting an over when with under a minute to play in the 1st half the score is 0-0, there's been 3 missed FG's, and the 2 starting QB's have been knocked out of the game...3 times!! :mj07:

Ryan Grant over 105.5 rushing (+125)

Grant's last 6...well, only 6 really...

94/14 @ Dallas (4th in rpg, 7th ypc)
101/15 @ Det (15th, 10th)
88/20 v. Carolina (17th and 3rd!)
119/25 v. Minni (1st and 2nd!!)
55/19 @ KC (21st, 21st)
104/22 @ Denver (30th, 32nd)

I guess the main concern there is the Chief's, but it was on the road...

Oakland are 30th overall @ 148 per game, and dead last in rpc @ 4.8.

On the road their run D is a disaster...allowed;
150/31 @ KC (Kolby Smith!)
164/22 @ Min (Taylor)
133/25 @ Tenn (White)
198/24 @ SD (LT)
134/15 @ Mia (Brown)
128/26 @ Denver (Henry)

You'd think he'd only need 20 carries to top this...given Favre has a sore elbow he might (maybe! :mj07: ) be a bit more conservative...
...but either way, as double digit favs, they figure to be up late (esp. with Oakland a chance to go with a rookie QB), so he should see at least that much action.

Looks a very gettable number at a very juicy (juice-free even!) price. :toast:

Hey, thanks ar...hope all's well in your neck of the woods.

Don't suppose you'll have any Bowl plays for us NCAA nuff-nuff's who just want some action at this time of the year? :SIB

 

[MrChristo]

Houston +3

League: 2-16 (Av. LOSS 3.6) away fav, off a SU win as a 3+ dog, with >34 mins TOP, if opp is off an ats loss. [TB]
(0-2 2006. Atl 14-30 Det @ -5. Dal 19-22 Wash @ -3)
0-10 (Av. LOSS 7.3) if total is 40+

Can only assume the Texans are starting home dogs because of Shaub being out?!...but Rosenfels has been just as good, if not better in the games he's played.
Houston won just 3 of their last 10...and I know I said last week how they've only beaten crap teams, but their recent schedule has been very tough! Just 2 home games in their last 7, and 2 games (both of which they won SU and ats) v. losing teams in the same time!!
You can't fault there home form at all...just one loss by more than 2, that was to Indi in a game were they had just 2 less FD's and over 29 mins TOP.
They throw at 7.7 y/pass, which is 5th best in the NFL (even better at home!), and I firmly believe this Bucs D is over-rated given the games they have played.
And, the Texan's poor run D is over 40ypg better at home (over 1.2 ypc!), so can an injured Garcia, or McCown carry the ofense for two straight weeks?
I don't think there's much between these teams, I think TB are being totally over-rated off last week and laying a FG on the road here seems a bit extreme.

 

[Emersonboozer]

Nice. I had the Skins -3 last night and I should have made it a parlay with the over but I chickened out. Good call

 

[escarzamd]

Nice call........looked like an under until the starting QBs went out:mj07:

 

[Hooks]

Mr. C, how can I contact you so we can talk shop ? :shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

Well Hooks, if you're ever in town, my home address is...

Get my email addy from Jack...which, now I think about it, could well be an old one...

mrchristo@hotmail.com will do fine for the time being. Fire away.

Denver -6.5

League: 3-15 (Av. loss 16.3) away 3+ dog, off a 7+ ats loss as home 3+ dog with >32 mins TOP. [KC]
(0-2 2007. Det 10-42 Min last week, Caro 7-20 Tenn @ +5)
0-4 (Av. loss 18.0...av. team score of 3.2 ppg!!) if total is <38.

KC have just been cut down by injuries...
[A big thanks to Mully and Destructor D for info in the O-Line injury thread. :toast:

...Not to mention the 'skill' positions...Obviously Kolby Smith is their last string RB, Huard looks to be out, and Croyle isn't 100% anyway!

So, we've got a team who held the ball for over 32 mins, yet allowed 24 points, on the back of some big plays, but a low total, suggesting that the team itself won't score much...given thay've scored 11, 10, 17 and 10 in the last 4 I think that's fair enough!
Denver D has been terribble all season too, but I don't see how this KC team can take advantage. They've scored more than 17 just 3 times all season!!...av. just 13.0 ppg on the road, and lost at home to Denver 11-27 a month ago...and 2 of those points came from a blocked punt/safety.
I can't see KC scoring much, and trust Denver to get enough on the board to cover the TD.

 

[MrChristo]

Cleveland -3

A massive thanks to Hooks here for pointing this out...

...that Jets are 0-18 since 1989 before going to NE! :scared

and, so with further digging...

League: 2-11-1 (av. loss 8.9) any home dog, off a 21+ ats win away with 3+ fewer TO's. [Jets]
(0-1 2006. NO 21-31 Caro @ +2.5)
0-8-1 (Av. loss 10.7) if opp was last away.

Not too sure what to say about this one now! Cleveland are clearly the better team...only TO's killed them last week...Jets being over-rated off a win v. a winless team, still with the help of 5 TO's...
Brownies only losses in their last 9 have been at Pits (by 3), NE by 17, but was far closer in reality...and last week...
...in a flat out race to win the Div with a Pits loss on the cards, this is a huge game for the Browns...who happen to be 5-0 as favs this season.

I didn't really want to get involved in this game, give I have the Brownies to win the Div, and I hate doubling up...
...but a good play is a good play! :shrug:

Thanks again Hooks :toast:

 

[Axle]

Great job MC, keep on rollin' on the river....:thumb:

 

[nagrawa]

Great day. Thanks for the picks

 

[njdboy]

thanks MC I tailed you on all 5 and your 4-1 day bailed me out and put me in the green. Much kudos!

 

[baby johnson]

mc, which sportsbook do you use, mine never has player props... thanks

 

[MrChristo]

Keep posting lads...I can get used to all these semi-naked chicks in my thread! :00hour

I get my player props from Centrebet (Australian) and Labrokes (UK), bj.

Not sure if that helps, I've noticed a lot of them now don't allow US citizens to join.

[sorry if those aren't allowed Jack...obviously delete names if you see fit.]

Yeah, 5-1 it is for the week....got more than a bit lucky with the Brownies, but not much stress involved in the other 4.

[And thanks again to the couple of guys who helped out. :toast: ]

YTD: 63-28 :drinky:

 

[escarzamd]

And still rollin' along:burnout

Anyone out there seen a better season??