Another ho-hum week...the plays went 11-11 last week. Took 5 losses on those Cleveland Browns. What a difference one game makes. Had that won the record for the week would be 16-6 instead. 
But it didn't. Minnesota DID in fact go off as a dog last week, that was a bit of a surprise.
There are two games without lines at this point. For a short time Tenn was favored by 6 or 6? vs Buffalo, so I'll assume the line is somewhere in that range. As for Hou/TB ... well, if Jax was favored by 9, and covered that easily....and Houston's injury situation gets no better... then I guess it stands to reason TB will be somewhere in the range of a 10 or 11 point favorite? Sounds a litttle crazy to me, but Jax -9 sounded crazy to me too, and it wasn't enough. :shrug:
At this point in the season I'm a little less-confident in these plays. I think some teams have definitely packed it in for the season. Arizona has stunk it up something fierce in recent weeks to name one. I just could not put a bet down on them at this point in the season, even though at one point they were covering the spread. At least they are at home this week. On the road... ugh...
No huge play this week...unless we get some line movement. We have a TON of "if" situations this week, so this report is kind of cluttered. Basically, just hope Baltimore and Carolina get bet up above -7, because then that makes Oakland and Arizona plays on a number of systems.
Miami comes up on a couple of the Monday Night systems that lost last week on Cleveland. Three teams come up on the 90-point system, one of my favorites.
There's one play on Washington for sure unless the game is a Pick....because one system requires them to be the favorite, and another requires them to be the underdog.
============================================
Here's what we have on deck this week:
System #1 - Play on a home dog that allowed 40 or more points last week (40-17, 70.1% since '87).
Play on: Arizona
System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).
Play on: San Diego
System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).
Play on: New England
System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).
Play on: Washington (if favored)
System #9 - Play on the home dog on Monday Night football (58-36, 61.7% since '83).
Play on: Miami (if they become the dog)
System #12 - Play on a Monday Night home team that was on the road last week if their opponent was at home last week (84-46-2, 64.6% since '80).
Play on: Miami
System #13 - Play on a Monday Night home team whose opponent won it's last game SU @ home (60-34-2, 63.8% since '85).
Play on: Miami
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-98-5, 59.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**
Play the Under on the games involving: Dallas, Houston, Seattle, Carolina
System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (76-45-1 ATS, 62.8% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Arizona
System #21 - Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (51-32 ATS, 61.4% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Miami (if they become the dog)
System #25 - Play on a home dog of 7? to 14 pts after a loss by 14+ pts. (32-15 ATS. 68.1% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Oakland, Arizona (in both cases only if line is +7? or more)
System #28 - Play against a road fav of 7? to 14 pts after gaining 150 yds or less passing in previous game. (14-1, 93.3% since '92).
Play on: Oakland (only if line is +7? or more)
(By the way, Carolina only had 153 yds passing last week, so Arizona is an "almost-almost" play here too, since the line would also have to be +7? or more. For comparison's sake, Baltimore had 147 yards passing which makes Oakland a potential play, and that's not a whole lot different than 153 yards passing. Did you follow all that? :brows: )
System #32 - Play on home dogs of 7+ who are outscored by 10+ pts/game on average. (10-1 ATS, 90.9% since '00)
Play on: Arizona (you guessed it...only if a dog of 7 or more...)
System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (41-21, 66.1% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Washington (if they are the dog), Oakland (wow, a pick I don't have to qualify by saying "if ______" )
System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: NY Giants
(Note: The past two weeks the Giants came up as an "almost" play on this system, being bang on 30 pts / 3 games...and in neither case did they cover their next game. This week however they truly qualify as a play, having scored 27 in their past 3. Is this the week they finally get it together on offence??)
System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: Seattle, Oakland, Miami
There you have it. Good luck.
But it didn't. Minnesota DID in fact go off as a dog last week, that was a bit of a surprise.There are two games without lines at this point. For a short time Tenn was favored by 6 or 6? vs Buffalo, so I'll assume the line is somewhere in that range. As for Hou/TB ... well, if Jax was favored by 9, and covered that easily....and Houston's injury situation gets no better... then I guess it stands to reason TB will be somewhere in the range of a 10 or 11 point favorite? Sounds a litttle crazy to me, but Jax -9 sounded crazy to me too, and it wasn't enough. :shrug:
At this point in the season I'm a little less-confident in these plays. I think some teams have definitely packed it in for the season. Arizona has stunk it up something fierce in recent weeks to name one. I just could not put a bet down on them at this point in the season, even though at one point they were covering the spread. At least they are at home this week. On the road... ugh...
No huge play this week...unless we get some line movement. We have a TON of "if" situations this week, so this report is kind of cluttered. Basically, just hope Baltimore and Carolina get bet up above -7, because then that makes Oakland and Arizona plays on a number of systems.
Miami comes up on a couple of the Monday Night systems that lost last week on Cleveland. Three teams come up on the 90-point system, one of my favorites.
There's one play on Washington for sure unless the game is a Pick....because one system requires them to be the favorite, and another requires them to be the underdog.
============================================
Here's what we have on deck this week:
System #1 - Play on a home dog that allowed 40 or more points last week (40-17, 70.1% since '87).
Play on: Arizona
System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).
Play on: San Diego
System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).
Play on: New England
System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).
Play on: Washington (if favored)
System #9 - Play on the home dog on Monday Night football (58-36, 61.7% since '83).
Play on: Miami (if they become the dog)
System #12 - Play on a Monday Night home team that was on the road last week if their opponent was at home last week (84-46-2, 64.6% since '80).
Play on: Miami
System #13 - Play on a Monday Night home team whose opponent won it's last game SU @ home (60-34-2, 63.8% since '85).
Play on: Miami
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-98-5, 59.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**
Play the Under on the games involving: Dallas, Houston, Seattle, Carolina
System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (76-45-1 ATS, 62.8% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Arizona
System #21 - Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (51-32 ATS, 61.4% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Miami (if they become the dog)
System #25 - Play on a home dog of 7? to 14 pts after a loss by 14+ pts. (32-15 ATS. 68.1% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Oakland, Arizona (in both cases only if line is +7? or more)
System #28 - Play against a road fav of 7? to 14 pts after gaining 150 yds or less passing in previous game. (14-1, 93.3% since '92).
Play on: Oakland (only if line is +7? or more)
(By the way, Carolina only had 153 yds passing last week, so Arizona is an "almost-almost" play here too, since the line would also have to be +7? or more. For comparison's sake, Baltimore had 147 yards passing which makes Oakland a potential play, and that's not a whole lot different than 153 yards passing. Did you follow all that? :brows: )
System #32 - Play on home dogs of 7+ who are outscored by 10+ pts/game on average. (10-1 ATS, 90.9% since '00)
Play on: Arizona (you guessed it...only if a dog of 7 or more...)
System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (41-21, 66.1% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Washington (if they are the dog), Oakland (wow, a pick I don't have to qualify by saying "if ______" )
System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: NY Giants
(Note: The past two weeks the Giants came up as an "almost" play on this system, being bang on 30 pts / 3 games...and in neither case did they cover their next game. This week however they truly qualify as a play, having scored 27 in their past 3. Is this the week they finally get it together on offence??)
System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: Seattle, Oakland, Miami
There you have it. Good luck.
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