Week 15.

[MrChristo]

Hard to believe all the fun is about to come to an end...

YTD: 63-28

Pittsburgh v. Jax under 37.5

(I didn't want to take the 39.5 'cause I was holding out for a 40...then next time I log on it's 37 just about accross the board!! :com: )

League: 3-18-1 under (Av. total 39.4...av. score 30.2) home fav, off a 7+ ats loss as a 7+ dog with >30 mins TOP. [Pit]
0-8 (Av. score 23.7!!) if opp is off an ats win.

The Jags are on a massive over run, but I think it all comes to an end this week. Steelers allowing just 9.1 ppg at home this season!...but more to the point this Jags D is the best that they will have faced for a long time! (Well, since NE last week! )...of course, they scored 13 in that game, and before had played v. Cinci, Miami, Jets, Cleveland, Balt, Cinci, Denver...in terms of points allowed, those teams rank (in order); 28, 31, 25, 32, 24, 28, 29!!!
Jax allow just 17.6 ppg which is 6th overall.
Last years meeting (in Jax) was 9-0...and some nasty weather forecast won't help scoring much.


Chicago @ Minni over 43

League: 22-3 over! (Av. total 44.0...av. score 54.4) home 10+ fav off a 10+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [Min]
11-1 (12-0 this no...av. score 60.5!) if opp last lost ats.

Probably should leave this one, which could be likely to fall as Orton is rumoured to get the start...but I don't think it matters!
Best running team against one of the worst run D's...Minni score big here. They've scored 29, 41, 42 and 27 in the last 4 weeks as it is, and of course dropped 34 on the Bears in the first meeting this season, rushing for over 300!
Minni still have the worst pass D in the NFL tho, so therre's no reason why Chicago can't hit a decent score...they've only scored less than 16 3 times all season...inc. 31 last meeting.
Then you've got the Hester factor, so either a kick/punt return, or short kicks making for short fields all night.
Chicago are in a 6-0 over spot of their own based on the longer than usual week rest...
...the last meeting went 64, and I don't think a lot has changed!

I've got 2 more definates, but the lines seem to be helping me out atm, so I'll wait...

...for the saddists amongst us (come on, we know you're out there!)...
...League: 18-6-1 away 10+ dog, off a 1-3 ats loss as home dog...
...10-1-1 if the total is >40....Jets anybody!?! :scared :00hour

...and the good news for my Brownie Div bet is that they are in a 26-2 (17-0) SU situation, so anyone looking for a ML parlay, or teaser leg... :SIB

EDIT: Stuff it...I'm playing the...

Jets +24 (1.87)

Good situation...crap weather forecast (30 mph winds with sleet and snow)...just too many points!
NE have won just 3 games all season by more than 24...won the last meeting by 24 with a 108 yard kick return, and beat Miami by only 21!
In any case, if the weather does develop, the line shuld drop a decent amount by gametime for a possible buy back.

 

[CornHunka]

MrC, love the Jags/Steelers under and am seriously looking at the Jets if the weather forecast stays the same.

BOL

 

[bake2252]

Almost to the magical 70% clip Mr. Christo, keep it up!

 

[Sarassin]

any thoughts about tonites game?

 

[MrChristo]

I should have stuck with last week's thought , that Houston are a decent home team who've had a tough schedule...

Carolina v. Seattle over 37

League: 10-2-1 over (Av. total 44.8...av. score 48.5) away 7+ fav off a 10+ ats win as home 7+ fav with <30 mins TOP. [Seattle]

5-0 (Av. sore 54.2!) if it's a non-div game.
(1-0 2007. SD 17-35 Min @ 41.5)

Seattle are officially rolling offensively! Haven't scored below 24 in their last 7...and after even more having said publicly that they want to pass more, and give up on their stalling rush attack.
Carolina's defensive numbers are ok, but pretty sure they've had enough having allowed 20+ in 6 of last 7 (only held SF to less).
Seattle get 24 at least...They've allowed <19 just once on the road, so surely the Panthers can get 2 TD's.
24-17 to bust the cover?

San Fran +9.5 (1.85)

League: 0-10 (Av. LOSS 4.2) away 7+ fav, off a 1-3 ats loss as any 7+ fav. [Cinci]
0-6 SU! (Av. LOSS 5.3) if hey were home 10+ favs!

and...League: 134 (Av. loss .9) home 7+ dog, off a 10+ ats loss as home 3+ dog. [SF]
4-0 (Av. WIN 5.2) if they were a 7+ dog.

A few things here...Cinci are rubbish!! How on earth are they 9 point road favs over anyone?! :scared 1-5 SU way from home with a D that allows over 27 ppg...
SF were actually ok last week...17-11 FD's, and 31.47 TOP...Hill (or Weinke) are both far better ptions than Dilfer, who has the arm strength of a wet roll of paper, and has allowed teams to stack the run all season...
...plus, they've actually had a pretty tough schedule against some good run stuffing teams.
SF have played just 3 games all season against teams outside the top 16 for run D!!
SL (23rd @ ypc)...Gore ran for 81/20 in a win.
SL again, had a shocker, but it was a 9-13 loss...and didn't play v. Atlanta...in what was still a 16-20 loss.
Cinci are ranked 20th @ 4.2.
I think the 49ers can control this game...finally a dwnfield threat, and finally a crap run D, Gore should have a big one...and I really think they are a chance to win this game SU.
Either way, getting more than a TD (9 even!) at home looks far too many against a team with just 2 more wins!! :shrug:

 

[ThomasJ]

MrChristo, the year went fast indeed, I'm sure when your winning at the remarkable clip you are it's going WAY too fast, lol.

Continued success down the stretch you've been a pleasure to read this season.

Tom

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

awesome record sir, keep up the good work!
you're an asset to this forum!

thanks

 

[TiltBoy20]

pitts

pitts

seems like there is a bunch of defensive players injured on both pitt and jax.i read troy polamalu is doubtfull and de aaron smith is out by far pitts best 2 defensive players and for jax de marcus stroud bad ankle and they been playing with out there mlb,plus im not sold on pitts "home defense" ifyou look closer the teams they have played home rank on the bottom of the league in total offense buff#28 49ers#32 sea#11 now but was strugglin at that time Miami#30 Baltimore#25 the best team they played at home was cleveland and they put up 28 so i sa there suspect.would like to here your thoughts mr christo cuss i will be tailing.

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks for the kind words gentlemen...but in reality I'm just a guy with too much time on his hands who would rather look at numbers/figures all day than do any kind of real work! :00hour

I totally agree with you about Pits opp TiltBoy...and I guess it's a concern if Jax get rolling.
But like I said, I think this is the best D that the Steelers will face all season, so if Jax wanna win 24-10 that's fne by me! :SIB

Weather looks like it's also goig to be a factor here...20+ mph winds with rain and snow...

Having said that, I'm happy I got a 37.5...I'm not sure I'd be so keen at 36 and falling.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I can honestly say I never thought I would see "rubbish" used in a post on Mad Jack's. Well played! Next you'll start throwing out "nutter" on us. :mj07:

Kidding Christo. GL with your plays and AWESOME season!

 

[TiltBoy20]

browns

browns

mr christo i was wondering how you feel about cleveland this week?buffalo playing a team that can expose there defense plus buff is now 2-18 ats after they play miami any input is appreciated ty and good luck this week.

 

[MrChristo]

...and the good news for my Brownie Div bet is that they are in a 26-2 (17-0) SU situation, so anyone looking for a ML parlay, or teaser leg... :SIB

Got them to win the Div, so won't 'double up' on them this week, but yeah, think they win at least...
...cover? :shrug:

(Go Jags!! :drinky: )

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

terrific job MrChristo, keep up the great work !!!:toast:

BOL this weekend !!!


vicc

 

[77sticks]

BOL Mrchristo.

An amazing season.

I am sure I will be tailing on something tomorrow.

 

[yanno]

buff is now 2-18 ats after they play miami .

Buffalo and Miami used to be a HUGE rivalry. They hated each other in the days of Kelly and Marino and the Superbowl runs. Of course they would build up to their games and it would wear them out.

This is irrelevant now since there is no rivalry and and has not been for some years. Miami is not even a real team this year. Perfect example of a stat that you have to look behind to see if there is anything there. In this case, there is not.

If anything, Pats became the rivalry, but that is now irrelevant also since NE is sooooo superior.

They may still lose for the reasons stated, but not because they ran all over a bad Miami team.

Interesting observation, tho. All such info is good.

 

[Altgator]

Great record!!

Great record!!

continued success on a great season!