Yeah, I got more Phishhead...
...and I guess the positive thing about being a .500 poster is that a losing day can be reasonably expected to be followed by a small winner... kurby
Green Bay @ Jax over 45.5
League: 13-1 over (Av. total 44.0...av. score 53.2) any away fav, off an ats loss as home 3+ fav with <26 mins TOP, if opp is off an ats loss, total is 42.5+ [GB]
USCMD was spot on with his summation of the Jags last week, but I'll give them one more chance here, at home against a GB team allowing over 28 ppg on the road.
Packers having no trouble scoring away from home either, topping 21 in 5 of 6, with only a game @ Tenn producing less...not to mention a Jax D that has allowed 23+ in each of their last 4.
San Fran @ Miami under 41.5
Miami have gone over this number just 3 times all season! Just aren't a big scoring team at all, despite some decent offensive numbers, they av. just on 20 ppg.
SF playing some solid D...allowig just 3.8 ypc, and have held 3 of their last 4 opponent's to 16 or less.
I still think they'll struggle to score against the 'Fins, who've only given up 20 points one time in their last 7 games.
Pits @ Baltimore under 602.5 offensive yards (1.80)
Unfortunately ths bet had a relatively low limit, otherwise I would have loaded up. (5000 unit GOTY for sure! :0corn )
Not really sure how they even came up with the number?! The number 1 and 2 D's in the NFL, both allowing right around 250 yards per game.
The first meeing produced 43 points, with only 480 yards!
Ravens home games av. 507, wth just one going over this number...609, when they topped 375 themselves v. a terrible Oakland D.
Steelers have played 2 top 5 D's on the road, had 450 total @ Wash, and 440 @ Philli...as well, as 480 v. Balt (2) and 531 v. NYG (6)
so...
Pits v. Baltimore under 34.5
League: 4-16 under (Av. total 34.4...av. score 29.7) any dog, total <36, off an ats win as any home fav with <30 mins TOP. [Pit]
0-7 (Av. score 28.0) if last meeting went over.
Ravens have been scoring big, but mostly from D/ST's...under 250 yards in both their games v. Philli (4th ranked D) and Washington (5th)...now face the number 1 D, allowing just 14 ppg, and have given up more than 13 just once in their last 6!!
Of course, the Balti D is solid as ever, allowing just 10 ppg at home on the season.
This could just about be the square play of the week, but it does look like a hard hitting, defensive battle is on the cards.
Washington @ Cinci under 37 (1.83)
Bought the 1/2 here, but not sure where the points are coming from.
Cinci are an absolute disaster, scoring just over 11 ppg! Have scored more than 14 just 3 times all season!!
Washington have topped 20 just one time in their last 8 games, and Detroit hardly counts.
That Detroit game is the only one in that time span tht has topped 37, and they are are a 8-0-1 under run.
Offensive line problems, unhappy RB problems, a QB that just can't throw the ball down the field. :shrug:
SD @ KC under 45 (2.00)
More of a weather pick than anything else...25+ mph winds are forecast should make throwing the ball downfield difficult...
...of course KC's run D has been their major problem this year, but as I said last week, LT is far from his best...has had more than 4.0 ypc just twice all season!...even against some of the very worst run D's (Oak, Atl, Indi, Denver)...not to mention the 20-19 game last meeting, Tomlinson held to 78/22, and obviously the game went under easily.
Thigpen's offense has come back to earth in the last 2...just 17 last week and really only 10 @ Oakland against 2 bad D's.
Teaser: Carolina -1.5, NYG +9, Houston +9.5 (2.80)
League: 21-0 SU (Av. win 12.0) home 7+ fav off a 7+ ats win as home fav with <30 mins TOP. [Caro]
Panthers a "sneaky" 7-0 at home, handled a solid Tampa D last week...they should have a huge game on the ground against this Denver D, control the clock, and go 8-0.
League: 9-0-1 (Av. WIN 4.3) Div dog, off a 10+ ats loss as a fav with <26 mins TOP, if opp lost ats with 30+ mins TOP. [NYG]
Dallas are, well, rubbish aren't they! Even with Romo, they have wins of more than 4 against Cleveland, GB, Cinci, SF and Seattle...the best record on that list is 5-8!
Giants had a bad one last week, but will be up for this one with a chace to knock Dallas out of the playoff race.
League: 14-2-2 (Av. WIN 5.1) home Div 3+ dog, off a SU win as away 3+ dog with 34+ mins TOP. [Houst]
10-0-2 (Av. WIN 8.4!) if total is 40+ (inc. Tex 20-22 Indi @ +7 last year)
Titans with a host of defensive injury problems this week...Vanden Bosch and Hayesworth both not 100%, and both starting CB's unlikely to play...could be bad news against the Texans, av'ing over 27 ppg at home this season.
First meeting was a lot closer than the score suggests...Houston just 26 less yards, and over 29 mins TOP...Slaton had 116 on the ground...
...Houston chance for the upset here, imo...suddenly thinking 'over' now too... kurby
Good Luck all
