thru wk14:2025 NFL: 120-196-7 -3757.24
latest:wk14: 5-22-1 -1287.
Doesn't get much worse than that. Been a little distracted by reality, but that's little excuse. I generally don't believe in curses, and other voodoo shit, but I've been wrong before. Evidence up top.
I'm going to work with the following information, get a better sense of injury reports, and continue to push my luck, or curse.
Info for each team is the following:
(W-L/avg.points for-against/opponent passer rating/team rankings/espn's fpi/nfelo)
The last 3 numbers, for each, are some predictive power rankings, just to get a sense of what the lines are in comparison. Instead of my previously adjusting these for proposed lines or edges, I've left each as is so me--and anyone insane enough to view this (fade ahoy; easy money)--can fuck around and decide on their own adjustments for home field and other factors.
-----------
NFL week 15
-----------
(W-L/avg.points for-against/opponent passer rating*/team rankings/espn's fpi/nfelo)
*+ after OPR indicates significant improvement last 3 games, - for significant decline
(significant=around a 10-point or more disparity, generally, on the OPR)
thurs 8:15 falcons(4-9/19.4-24.1/92.3/-4.0/-4.6/-3.1)@Buccaneers(7-6/23-25/94.1/-0.1/-0.9/-1.9)
sun 1pms:
cardinals(3-10/21.7-26.7/92.6-/-2.6/-3.8/-4.6)@Texans(8-5/21.7-16/69.8+/+6.1/+3.4/+2.2)
raiders(2-11/15.1-25.5/95.9/-8.2/-6.3/-7.0)@Eagles(8-5/22.2-20.8/77.3/+3.7/+3.6/+3.6)
--medium wind/Lane Johnson?
jets(3-10/19.7-26.8/101.2+/-7.4/-8.3/-7.7)@Jaguars(9-4/25.2-20.9/83.3+/+3.5/+1.3/+0.3)
browns(3-10/17.1-23.1/89.8/-6.6/-8.6/-5.5)@Bears(9-4/25.7-25.7/94.0/-0.5/-0.5/-0.3)
--very cold/medium winds
bills(9-4/28.9-22.5/83.5/+5.4/+3.6/+4.1)@Patriots(11-2/27-18.5/94.6+/+2.6/+0.9/+2.6)
--Slight Chance Snow/cold
ravens(6-7/23.9-24.6/89.9/+1.4/+2.9/+1.8)@Bengals(4-9/24.1-31.7/103.3/-3.9/+1.1/-1.3)
--cold
chargers(9-4/23-20.8/73.0+/+0.7/+1.3/+0.1)@Chiefs(6-7/24.2-19.4/92.7/+5.6/+6.1/+3.5)
--cold
commanders(3-10/20.1-27.2/109.7/-4.0/-1.4/-4.7)@Giants(2-11/21.4-28.2/98.1-/-4.9/-1.4/-4.2)
--Slight Chance Snow
4:25 colts(8-5/28.9-21.9/86.3/+3.6/-2.2/+1.4)@Seahawks(10-3/29.7-17.4/77.3+/+8.0/+5.0/+7.0)
--Chance Rain
4:25 packers(9-3-1/24.7-19/88.3/+4.4/+5.2/+5.0)@Broncos(11-2/23.7-18.1/80.1/+3.0/+2.7/+1.9)
4:25 panthers(7-6/19-22.8/87.4+/-3.8/-4.2/-3.9)@Saints(3-10/15.8-24.2/96.5+/-7.6/-6.7/-6.4)
4:25 lions(8-5/30.3-23.4/93.3/+6.0/+5.0/+5.0)@Rams(10-3/29.1-17.4/83.3/+9.2/+6.9/+7.5)
4:25 titans(2-11/15.4-27.4/103.7/-8.5/-9.3/-7.8)@49ers(9-4/23.6-20.7/101.1+/+3.1/+3.6/+2.4)
8:20 vikings(5-8/19.6-21.6/90.8+/-0.8/-2.6/-3.0)@Cowboys(6-6-1/29.3-29.7/109.1/-0.8/+0.4/+0.2)
mon 8:15 dolphins(6-7/21.6-22.7/100.2+/-2.9/-2.7/-2.8)@Steelers(7-6/23.7-23.9/89.0/+0.2/-0.7/-0.1)
--Chance Rain/cold
---
===
Weather notes are early, if noted, and what I'm seeing today. I might add other shit but any fade selections will have to wait until I locate some round shit. I confess to liking Rams at -5.5, if such holds, and maybe road packers at -2, and/or Pats at better than evens. Saints if it hits +3 and I locate better drugs.
Good grief.
Good Luck
latest:wk14: 5-22-1 -1287.
Doesn't get much worse than that. Been a little distracted by reality, but that's little excuse. I generally don't believe in curses, and other voodoo shit, but I've been wrong before. Evidence up top.
I'm going to work with the following information, get a better sense of injury reports, and continue to push my luck, or curse.
Info for each team is the following:
(W-L/avg.points for-against/opponent passer rating/team rankings/espn's fpi/nfelo)
The last 3 numbers, for each, are some predictive power rankings, just to get a sense of what the lines are in comparison. Instead of my previously adjusting these for proposed lines or edges, I've left each as is so me--and anyone insane enough to view this (fade ahoy; easy money)--can fuck around and decide on their own adjustments for home field and other factors.
-----------
NFL week 15
-----------
(W-L/avg.points for-against/opponent passer rating*/team rankings/espn's fpi/nfelo)
*+ after OPR indicates significant improvement last 3 games, - for significant decline
(significant=around a 10-point or more disparity, generally, on the OPR)
thurs 8:15 falcons(4-9/19.4-24.1/92.3/-4.0/-4.6/-3.1)@Buccaneers(7-6/23-25/94.1/-0.1/-0.9/-1.9)
sun 1pms:
cardinals(3-10/21.7-26.7/92.6-/-2.6/-3.8/-4.6)@Texans(8-5/21.7-16/69.8+/+6.1/+3.4/+2.2)
raiders(2-11/15.1-25.5/95.9/-8.2/-6.3/-7.0)@Eagles(8-5/22.2-20.8/77.3/+3.7/+3.6/+3.6)
--medium wind/Lane Johnson?
jets(3-10/19.7-26.8/101.2+/-7.4/-8.3/-7.7)@Jaguars(9-4/25.2-20.9/83.3+/+3.5/+1.3/+0.3)
browns(3-10/17.1-23.1/89.8/-6.6/-8.6/-5.5)@Bears(9-4/25.7-25.7/94.0/-0.5/-0.5/-0.3)
--very cold/medium winds
bills(9-4/28.9-22.5/83.5/+5.4/+3.6/+4.1)@Patriots(11-2/27-18.5/94.6+/+2.6/+0.9/+2.6)
--Slight Chance Snow/cold
ravens(6-7/23.9-24.6/89.9/+1.4/+2.9/+1.8)@Bengals(4-9/24.1-31.7/103.3/-3.9/+1.1/-1.3)
--cold
chargers(9-4/23-20.8/73.0+/+0.7/+1.3/+0.1)@Chiefs(6-7/24.2-19.4/92.7/+5.6/+6.1/+3.5)
--cold
commanders(3-10/20.1-27.2/109.7/-4.0/-1.4/-4.7)@Giants(2-11/21.4-28.2/98.1-/-4.9/-1.4/-4.2)
--Slight Chance Snow
4:25 colts(8-5/28.9-21.9/86.3/+3.6/-2.2/+1.4)@Seahawks(10-3/29.7-17.4/77.3+/+8.0/+5.0/+7.0)
--Chance Rain
4:25 packers(9-3-1/24.7-19/88.3/+4.4/+5.2/+5.0)@Broncos(11-2/23.7-18.1/80.1/+3.0/+2.7/+1.9)
4:25 panthers(7-6/19-22.8/87.4+/-3.8/-4.2/-3.9)@Saints(3-10/15.8-24.2/96.5+/-7.6/-6.7/-6.4)
4:25 lions(8-5/30.3-23.4/93.3/+6.0/+5.0/+5.0)@Rams(10-3/29.1-17.4/83.3/+9.2/+6.9/+7.5)
4:25 titans(2-11/15.4-27.4/103.7/-8.5/-9.3/-7.8)@49ers(9-4/23.6-20.7/101.1+/+3.1/+3.6/+2.4)
8:20 vikings(5-8/19.6-21.6/90.8+/-0.8/-2.6/-3.0)@Cowboys(6-6-1/29.3-29.7/109.1/-0.8/+0.4/+0.2)
mon 8:15 dolphins(6-7/21.6-22.7/100.2+/-2.9/-2.7/-2.8)@Steelers(7-6/23.7-23.9/89.0/+0.2/-0.7/-0.1)
--Chance Rain/cold
---
===
Weather notes are early, if noted, and what I'm seeing today. I might add other shit but any fade selections will have to wait until I locate some round shit. I confess to liking Rams at -5.5, if such holds, and maybe road packers at -2, and/or Pats at better than evens. Saints if it hits +3 and I locate better drugs.
Good grief.
Good Luck
