Oakland +7 (1.99)
League: 7-17-1 (av. LOSS 7.4!) away, off a 3- ats loss as away 7+ dog. [Oak]
(0-4-1 as a fav)
1-10 SU!! (Av. LOSS 12.7!!) if total is <37.
It's extremely hard to bounce back from a close ats loss as a big 'dog when on the road again...esp. as a fav...and I don't think this KC team just isn't good enough to buck a very solid trend.
Motivation? Well, Green Bay had everything to play for today against a Minni team that obviously didn't care, and barely scraped a SU win, failing to cover the spread.
NO had to win to wrap up their Div last week against a team that had mailed it in weeks ago...lost SU at home as -10 favs.
The Oakland players will be plenty motivated anyway, after Shell was sacked this week...many of them will be playing for their careers!
KC won the first meeting 17-13 at home...lost ats as -9 favs...now they are a 4 point better team on the road?
In that game they out-gained KC, and held Green to 92 yards passing!...and the Chiefs won with a TD in the last 2 minutes.
Oakland have been pretty brutal in the last 7 weeks, but they have scored at least 10 in 5 of those games, and really, they won't need to score much more to cover given KC have topped 10 only twice in 7 road games...@ Arizona and @ Cleveland...2 very ordinary defenses!...in fact 3rd and 2nd WORST total defenses respectively. Oakland are 4th best.
Like I said, history suggests that Oakland will win this one SU...but realistically, odds of ~3.60 aren't great for a 2-12 team!...but the 7 points will come in very handy indeed, imo.
New England SU (~2.40) and under 37
League: 2-10 SU (Av. LOSS 2.2) home 3- fav, if total 37 or less, off an upset SU loss as away fav. [Jax]
(2-0 this season. KC 10-20 Balt (-3) & Pits 20-31 Denver (-3))
Jacksonville are 6-1 at home, but really haven't had a lot of opposition. Houston, Indi and Tenn are 3 of the bottom 4 for y/play allowed. Jets are 5th worst for y/game allowed and the Giants are in the bottom half for both. They've played just one team in the top 10 in total defense @ home, Pits, who they scored 9 against! (NE are 6th overall D).
Of course the one thing they do very well at home is play defense. They allow just 9.1 ppg and haven't given up more than 17 all season.
Taylor likely out hurts the Jags running game (although Jones-Drew did a good job last week), but they wouldn't like Gerrard to throw the ball 30+ times against this NE D.
I think the under is the right play @ 37, but can't ignore the strong trend and good price for NE to cause the 'upset'.
Buffalo -4 (will buy 1/2 if necessary)
League: 1-9-2 (Av. loss 9.7) away 7- dog, off a 10+ ats win as home 7- dog, if opp is also off a 10+ ats win. [Tenn]
Wow. 2 of the most in-form teams in the NFL! Tenn riding a 6 game SU and ats winning streak, and Buff on a 7 game ats streak, winning 5 and losing 2 games by a combined 4 points!!
But I think the line here is being a little generous to the Titans, who have done most of their damage at home, beat a petty poor Houston in OT and won @ Philli in a game where they had 2 defensive TD's and it was the game where McNabb went down and out.
Again, Tenn have had a pretty soft defensive road schedule...they've only topped 13 @ Washington, Houston (4th and 6th worst in y/play allowed)...and Philli with the 2 defensive TD's...(Young threw for just 101 yards on 8/22...Henry ran for 143 yards on 18 carries, but 70 of that came in one go)...throw in a game @ Indi (2nd worst y/play allowed).
Miami, Jax and SD all in top 10 and Tenn scored 10, 7 and 7. Buff are 12th best.
Buffalo have score 21+ in 6 of their last 7, and that really should be enough to get them the win and cover at home.
Good Luck all
League: 7-17-1 (av. LOSS 7.4!) away, off a 3- ats loss as away 7+ dog. [Oak]
(0-4-1 as a fav)
1-10 SU!! (Av. LOSS 12.7!!) if total is <37.
It's extremely hard to bounce back from a close ats loss as a big 'dog when on the road again...esp. as a fav...and I don't think this KC team just isn't good enough to buck a very solid trend.
Motivation? Well, Green Bay had everything to play for today against a Minni team that obviously didn't care, and barely scraped a SU win, failing to cover the spread.
NO had to win to wrap up their Div last week against a team that had mailed it in weeks ago...lost SU at home as -10 favs.
The Oakland players will be plenty motivated anyway, after Shell was sacked this week...many of them will be playing for their careers!
KC won the first meeting 17-13 at home...lost ats as -9 favs...now they are a 4 point better team on the road?
In that game they out-gained KC, and held Green to 92 yards passing!...and the Chiefs won with a TD in the last 2 minutes.
Oakland have been pretty brutal in the last 7 weeks, but they have scored at least 10 in 5 of those games, and really, they won't need to score much more to cover given KC have topped 10 only twice in 7 road games...@ Arizona and @ Cleveland...2 very ordinary defenses!...in fact 3rd and 2nd WORST total defenses respectively. Oakland are 4th best.
Like I said, history suggests that Oakland will win this one SU...but realistically, odds of ~3.60 aren't great for a 2-12 team!...but the 7 points will come in very handy indeed, imo.
New England SU (~2.40) and under 37
League: 2-10 SU (Av. LOSS 2.2) home 3- fav, if total 37 or less, off an upset SU loss as away fav. [Jax]
(2-0 this season. KC 10-20 Balt (-3) & Pits 20-31 Denver (-3))
Jacksonville are 6-1 at home, but really haven't had a lot of opposition. Houston, Indi and Tenn are 3 of the bottom 4 for y/play allowed. Jets are 5th worst for y/game allowed and the Giants are in the bottom half for both. They've played just one team in the top 10 in total defense @ home, Pits, who they scored 9 against! (NE are 6th overall D).
Of course the one thing they do very well at home is play defense. They allow just 9.1 ppg and haven't given up more than 17 all season.
Taylor likely out hurts the Jags running game (although Jones-Drew did a good job last week), but they wouldn't like Gerrard to throw the ball 30+ times against this NE D.
I think the under is the right play @ 37, but can't ignore the strong trend and good price for NE to cause the 'upset'.
Buffalo -4 (will buy 1/2 if necessary)
League: 1-9-2 (Av. loss 9.7) away 7- dog, off a 10+ ats win as home 7- dog, if opp is also off a 10+ ats win. [Tenn]
Wow. 2 of the most in-form teams in the NFL! Tenn riding a 6 game SU and ats winning streak, and Buff on a 7 game ats streak, winning 5 and losing 2 games by a combined 4 points!!
But I think the line here is being a little generous to the Titans, who have done most of their damage at home, beat a petty poor Houston in OT and won @ Philli in a game where they had 2 defensive TD's and it was the game where McNabb went down and out.
Again, Tenn have had a pretty soft defensive road schedule...they've only topped 13 @ Washington, Houston (4th and 6th worst in y/play allowed)...and Philli with the 2 defensive TD's...(Young threw for just 101 yards on 8/22...Henry ran for 143 yards on 18 carries, but 70 of that came in one go)...throw in a game @ Indi (2nd worst y/play allowed).
Miami, Jax and SD all in top 10 and Tenn scored 10, 7 and 7. Buff are 12th best.
Buffalo have score 21+ in 6 of their last 7, and that really should be enough to get them the win and cover at home.
Good Luck all
