2-3...man...my second losing week of the season...
...although I did take the Cleveland under, 1) I didn't post it (so that's the end of that!
) ...and 2) We really should show the books some respect when they are willing to post a total when the word "blizzard" appears in the forecast!! :scared
Right...early ones...
Dallas @ Carolina under 44..
League: 3-17 under (Av. total 44.0...av. score 36.9) away 7+ fav, off a SU loss as a 7+ fav. [Dal]
0-12 (Av. score 30.0) if they lost SU as a 10+ fav.
You struggle to score one week, you struggle the next? You crack the shits, play some defense and make god-damn sure it doesn't happen again?! :shrug:
It's a Pathers game for a start...they've scored over 17 just twice in their last 11!!! Now with Moore at QB, they really don't figure to get much on the board here.
Dallas really got beat up by Philli, and if the Eagles running game can give them trouble (Philli kept the ball for nearly 34 minutes), then there's no reason why the Panthers can't do the same...the 1-2 punch of Foster and Williams went for over 100 this week and held the ball for over 35 minutes!
Charlotte don't have a big play left in them...Dallas may or may not fare better this week offensively, but either way they are unlikely to run up a score against a Conf rival on the road.
Just a big total when one team can't score.
Philli @ NO under 47
League: 4-13 under (1-16 this no!...av. score 34.2) away 3+ dog, off a SU win as away 10+ dog. [Phil]
0-10 (Av. score 30.3) if opp is off an ats win.
And...speaking of teams that can't score...the vastly over-rated Eagles, and their 18 ppg!...17 or less in 9 games this season!
I know the NO defense sucks, but 47?! Philli still playing decent D, allowing just 16 ppg on the road, and obviously holding Dallas to just 6 this week...11 FD's, 26 mins TOP...
NO have scored big on two crappy defenses last 2...Bush "hoping" to play this week (doubt it very much), but this Philli D will feast on a pass happy Brees.
Maybe I'm way off, but 47 looks a hell of a lot here!
Oakland @ Jax under 39.5
League: 1-14 under (Av. total 38.1...av. score 30.4) 7+ fav, inside the Conf, off a 10+ ats win as away dog, if opp won ats as a 7+ dog. [Jax]
Kinda wish the "system" would stop throwing up Jag unders...but I'll give it one more shot just because of their opp this week.
Unikely Culpepper will play again, Fargas out...Rhodes (why didn't Jordon get a carry this week anyone??)...Either way, Jax can be run on, allowing over 4 ypr since Stroud has been out, and Oakland knocked up almost 150 v. Indi, who actually allow less per carry than the Jags.
Given neither McCown or Russell can throw the ball forward, it all adds up to a large amount of ticking clocks (well, just one, but that'll do!).
Oakland have the 7th best pass D in the NFL...and they didn't give up an offensive TD until less than 5 minutes to play last week v. Indi. (And 14 of the GB's 38 came from D/ST the week before)
Oakland struggle to move the ball and score against a Jags D allowing 15 ppg at home...and Jax don't run up a big score because they don't need to!
Will be all over a Fred taylor prop if I can find one, but in the meantime, with about 50% more runs than throws, I don't think either team hs time to score big here.
Pittsburgh @ St. Louis under 43.5
League:1-12 under (Av. total 42.4...av. score 31.4) 7+ fav, off a SU loss as home fav, with <28 mins TOP.
0-7 (Av. score 28.8!) if they had <26 miins TOP.
An old coach once said to me, "Dude, you can't score if you haven't got the ball"...actually that isn't true at all (the coach bit)...but when I'm an old coach (probably not of NFL tho)...oh, ffs, you get the idea!!
Basically, the Steelers got run on last week big time, giving up over 200 yards on 37 carries. Enough has been written around the place of their stupidly easy schedule...they've allowed just 3.8 ypc, but Jackson got 143/24 last week v. a reasonable GB run D, and has run for 90+ yards in 5 of his 6 games back from injury @ over 4.5 ypc.
St. Louis gained over 350 yards last week and held the ball for over 36 mins!!...The Steelers just don't have the ability of Favre and the Packers to hurt quickly the other way.
Hoping for the miracle Rams win (Go the Brownies!! :00hour )...which isn't out of the question!!...but I do think there will be some big, long, time consuming drives, and I doubt that at least one of these teams will pass 17.
That should get the under in.
Giants -2.5
League: 12-2-1 (14-1 @ this no...av. win 11.0) away fav, off a 10+ ats loss as a home 3+ fav, if total is <38, and they had >30 mins TOP. [NYG]
5-0 (Av. win 15.0...and 5-0 over...av. score 52.6!!...team av's 33.8) if they are off a 14+ ats loss.
Well, history suggests the Giants will score BIG here...not too sure about that, but I think they will win by a FG at least.
5-1 away for the season....5 straight since their first 2 losses of the season.
The key to NY's game is their running...make no mistake, if the ground game gets stuffed, Eli is under pressure too make plays...and, well...Eli!...
...But, no reason why Jacobs won't have a monster game here to keep things rolling.
In 7 games this season, his lowest yardage is 70 (first week back off a hamstring)...he av's over 102 ypg (healthy!), @ 5.17 ypc!
NY need one more game to clinch a play-off spot, and with NE at home on the horizon, they will be really wanting this one!...
...I personally hate that logic!...but i do think they win it anyway!
...Just for the record the Bills' wins this season have come v. the Jets, Balti, Jets, Cinci, Miami, Washington, Miami...Not one team above .500...combined record: 24-74!! :scared (unless someone wants to check my math )
...Indi also in a very solid WIN spot, so will be looking to tease/ML them, depending on what the rest of the games throw up.
Good luck all
...although I did take the Cleveland under, 1) I didn't post it (so that's the end of that!
) ...and 2) We really should show the books some respect when they are willing to post a total when the word "blizzard" appears in the forecast!! :scared Right...early ones...
Dallas @ Carolina under 44..
League: 3-17 under (Av. total 44.0...av. score 36.9) away 7+ fav, off a SU loss as a 7+ fav. [Dal]
0-12 (Av. score 30.0) if they lost SU as a 10+ fav.
You struggle to score one week, you struggle the next? You crack the shits, play some defense and make god-damn sure it doesn't happen again?! :shrug:
It's a Pathers game for a start...they've scored over 17 just twice in their last 11!!! Now with Moore at QB, they really don't figure to get much on the board here.
Dallas really got beat up by Philli, and if the Eagles running game can give them trouble (Philli kept the ball for nearly 34 minutes), then there's no reason why the Panthers can't do the same...the 1-2 punch of Foster and Williams went for over 100 this week and held the ball for over 35 minutes!
Charlotte don't have a big play left in them...Dallas may or may not fare better this week offensively, but either way they are unlikely to run up a score against a Conf rival on the road.
Just a big total when one team can't score.
Philli @ NO under 47
League: 4-13 under (1-16 this no!...av. score 34.2) away 3+ dog, off a SU win as away 10+ dog. [Phil]
0-10 (Av. score 30.3) if opp is off an ats win.
And...speaking of teams that can't score...the vastly over-rated Eagles, and their 18 ppg!...17 or less in 9 games this season!
I know the NO defense sucks, but 47?! Philli still playing decent D, allowing just 16 ppg on the road, and obviously holding Dallas to just 6 this week...11 FD's, 26 mins TOP...
NO have scored big on two crappy defenses last 2...Bush "hoping" to play this week (doubt it very much), but this Philli D will feast on a pass happy Brees.
Maybe I'm way off, but 47 looks a hell of a lot here!
Oakland @ Jax under 39.5
League: 1-14 under (Av. total 38.1...av. score 30.4) 7+ fav, inside the Conf, off a 10+ ats win as away dog, if opp won ats as a 7+ dog. [Jax]
Kinda wish the "system" would stop throwing up Jag unders...but I'll give it one more shot just because of their opp this week.
Unikely Culpepper will play again, Fargas out...Rhodes (why didn't Jordon get a carry this week anyone??)...Either way, Jax can be run on, allowing over 4 ypr since Stroud has been out, and Oakland knocked up almost 150 v. Indi, who actually allow less per carry than the Jags.
Given neither McCown or Russell can throw the ball forward, it all adds up to a large amount of ticking clocks (well, just one, but that'll do!
).Oakland have the 7th best pass D in the NFL...and they didn't give up an offensive TD until less than 5 minutes to play last week v. Indi. (And 14 of the GB's 38 came from D/ST the week before)
Oakland struggle to move the ball and score against a Jags D allowing 15 ppg at home...and Jax don't run up a big score because they don't need to!
Will be all over a Fred taylor prop if I can find one, but in the meantime, with about 50% more runs than throws, I don't think either team hs time to score big here.
Pittsburgh @ St. Louis under 43.5
League:1-12 under (Av. total 42.4...av. score 31.4) 7+ fav, off a SU loss as home fav, with <28 mins TOP.
0-7 (Av. score 28.8!) if they had <26 miins TOP.
An old coach once said to me, "Dude, you can't score if you haven't got the ball"...actually that isn't true at all (the coach bit)...but when I'm an old coach (probably not of NFL tho)...oh, ffs, you get the idea!!
Basically, the Steelers got run on last week big time, giving up over 200 yards on 37 carries. Enough has been written around the place of their stupidly easy schedule...they've allowed just 3.8 ypc, but Jackson got 143/24 last week v. a reasonable GB run D, and has run for 90+ yards in 5 of his 6 games back from injury @ over 4.5 ypc.
St. Louis gained over 350 yards last week and held the ball for over 36 mins!!...The Steelers just don't have the ability of Favre and the Packers to hurt quickly the other way.
Hoping for the miracle Rams win (Go the Brownies!! :00hour )...which isn't out of the question!!...but I do think there will be some big, long, time consuming drives, and I doubt that at least one of these teams will pass 17.
That should get the under in.
Giants -2.5
League: 12-2-1 (14-1 @ this no...av. win 11.0) away fav, off a 10+ ats loss as a home 3+ fav, if total is <38, and they had >30 mins TOP. [NYG]
5-0 (Av. win 15.0...and 5-0 over...av. score 52.6!!...team av's 33.8) if they are off a 14+ ats loss.
Well, history suggests the Giants will score BIG here...not too sure about that, but I think they will win by a FG at least.
5-1 away for the season....5 straight since their first 2 losses of the season.
The key to NY's game is their running...make no mistake, if the ground game gets stuffed, Eli is under pressure too make plays...and, well...Eli!...
...But, no reason why Jacobs won't have a monster game here to keep things rolling.
In 7 games this season, his lowest yardage is 70 (first week back off a hamstring)...he av's over 102 ypg (healthy!), @ 5.17 ypc!
NY need one more game to clinch a play-off spot, and with NE at home on the horizon, they will be really wanting this one!...
...I personally hate that logic!...but i do think they win it anyway!
...Just for the record the Bills' wins this season have come v. the Jets, Balti, Jets, Cinci, Miami, Washington, Miami...Not one team above .500...combined record: 24-74!! :scared (unless someone wants to check my math
)...Indi also in a very solid WIN spot, so will be looking to tease/ML them, depending on what the rest of the games throw up.
Good luck all
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