thru wk15:2025 NFL: 133-223-7 -4363.45
Can't keep a good man down.
Can't keep a bad man up.
Highlight last week was hitting a small profit on player props despite going 2-9 on 'em. Lowlights included TNF (again) and one or three other double-doinks.
NFL week 16
===========
(current conference playoff seed;W-L/avg. for-against/opponent passer rating/team rankings predictive power rating/espn's fpi/nfelo power rating)
===========
thurs 8:15 rams(1;11-3/30-18.6/85.6--/+9.4/+7.2/+7.7)@Seahawks(5;11-3/28.9-17.3/77.1++/+7.9/+4.6/+6.6)
--Adams(dbt)&Nacua(in); Stafford 6-0 as Ram vs Seat(3-0 there)
--likely rain; medium wind
sat 5pm eagles(3;9-5/22.8-19.3/75.6++/+4.5/+4.5/+4.3)@Commanders(e;4-10/20.8-26.8/107.3+/-3.5/-3.5/-4.2)
sat 8:20 packers(7;9-4-1-/24.8-20.1/91.7--/+4.0/+4.8/+4.4)@Bears(2;10-4/26.1-24.1/88.8+/+0.5/+0.1/+0.6)
--opposing teams 3-10 after facing Broncos(gb); gb crap red zone O lately(past 4 games;4th worst O grade-PFF)
--cold; medium wind
sun 1pms:
bills(6;10-4/29.3-23.1/82.2/+5.5/+3.4/+4.7)@Browns(e;3-11/16.1-23.7/91.5/-7.6/-11.3/-6.6)
--cold & windy
jets(e;3-11/19.7-28.3/104.9-/-8.2/-8.3/-9.7)@Saints(e;4-10/16.1-23.7/96.5++/-7.4/-5.0/-6.1)
vikings(e;6-8/20.6-21.9/90.2++/-0.1/-2.1/-2.4)@Giants(e;2-12/21.4-28.3/98.6-/-5.2/-1.6/-4.7)
--medium wind
buccaneers(4;7-7/23.3-25.3/96.2/-0.4/-1.0/-2.5)@Panthers(9;7-7/18.8-22.6/88.9/-4.1/-4.3/-4.2)
--Baker 5-0 career vs Panthers (2-0 road); bucs O & D dispute post-last collapse--no pressure without blitzing, a la KC
chiefs(e;6-8/23.4-19.1/92.1/+5.3/-0.3/-0.1)@Titans(e;2-12/16.1-28.1/106.2-/-8.4/-8.6/-7.7)
--Slight Chance Rain Showers
chargers(5;10-4/22.5-20.3/71.3+/+1.3/+1.6/+0.3)@Cowboys(10;6-7-1/29.1-30/109.1/-1.3/0.0/-0.5)
bengals(e;4-10/22.4-31.2/104.1/-4.8/+0.3/-2.4)@Dolphins(e;6-8/21.1-23.1/102.3+/-3.3/-3.0/-3.3)
--Slight Chance Rain Showers
4:05 falcons(e;5-9/20.1-24.3/92.1/-3.7/-3.9/-2.6)@Cardinals(e;3-11/21.6-27.7/95.4--/-3.0/-4.3/-4.9)
4:05 jaguars(3;10-4/26.8-20.8/81.4++/+4.2/+1.6/+1.5)@Broncos(1;12-2/24.4-18.6/79.2/+3.2/+3.0/+2.5)
--Jags vg run D; Den struggling to run
4:25 steelers(4;8-6/24-23.3/90.3/+0.5/-0.4/+0.1)@Lions(8;8-6/30.5-24.6/94.0/+5.9/+5.0/+4.8)
--Lions RB David Montgomery out
4:25 raiders(e;2-12/14-25.9/99.3-/-8.9/-8.2/-7.1)@Texans(7;9-5/23.1-16.3/72.4/+6.7/+3.9/+2.9)
8:20 patriots(2;11-3/27.3-19.7/96.3/+2.2/+0.9/+1.8)@Ravens(9;7-7/23.9-22.8/87.3/+2.3/+3.4/+2.2)
--NE bad in red zone both ways
--Slight Chance Snow; medium wind
mon 8:15 49ers(6;10-4/24.5-20.9/101.1+/+3.1/+3.3/+2.5)@Colts(8;8-6/28-21.6/86.2/+3.9/-2.3/+1.9)
-----
1H rams +110 100/110
rams +114 200/228
eagles -6.5 -106 106/100
1H Bears -110 110/100
Bears -104 208/200
Saints -4 -106 159/150
Panthers +142 100/142
Broncos -3 -110 110/100
Ravens -3 +100 150/150
49ers -6 -109 109/100
=1352(10)
T3/10 rams +11 / Bears +9 / Texans -4.5 -130 130/100
T3/10 rams +11 / bills pk / Texans -4.5 -130 130/100
T3/10 rams +11 / Panthers +13 / Broncos +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 Bears +9 / Cowboys +9 / Ravens +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 bills@Browns un52 / Texans -4.5 / Ravens +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 Saints +6 / Texans -4.5 / 49ers +4 -130 65/50
T3/10 chargers@Cowboys un59.5 / patriots@Ravens un58 / 49ers@Colts un56 -130 65/50
=585(7)
P2 eagles -286 / Cowboys -129 <+139> 50/69.79
P2 eagles -286 / Ravens -157 <+121> 50/60.46
P2 Saints -227 / Cowboys -129 <+155> 50/77.86
P2 Saints -227 / Ravens -157 <+135> 50/67.90
=200(4)
Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +250 50/125
Rams Davis Allen anytime TD +600 50/300
Bears D'Andre Swift 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +800 50/400
Panthers Tetairoa McMillan to score 2+ TDs +1100 25/275
---
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov53.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Bears D'Andre Swift ov52.5 rushing yards -118 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov65.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 /
/ Dolphins De'Von Achane ov116.5 rushing & receiving yards -115 <+245> 50/122.70
P3 Rams Blake Corum ov38.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Saints Chris Olave ov5.5 receptions +105 /
/ 49ers George Kittle ov59.5 receiving yards -115 <+616> 25/154.13
P3 Seahawks Rashid Shaheed ov35.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Saints Chris Olave ov65.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Dolphins De'Von Achane ov82.5 rushing yards -115 <+553> 25/138.37
P3 Seahawks Rashid Shaheed longest reception ov18.5 -118 /
/ Eagles Jalen Hurts anytime TD scorer +105 /
/ Panthers Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD +155 <+865> 25/216.44
=350(9)
Rams employed 13 personnel, with 3 tight ends in the game, quite a bit this year, especially when they were without top WR Nacua. Key red zone target Adams is likely out so I'm expecting one or more RZ targets for one of these bad boys TE's to take while rumbling into the end zone.
Other player prop notes:
--Rams Kyren Williams has gone over the rush+recepts line (65.5) in 6 of past 7 & 12of14 overall, with failures reaching 48 & 65; he's topped the rushing number, alone (53.5), in 7 of past 8 and 12 of 14 overall
--Rams Blake Corum has gone over his rushing total (38.5) in 3 straight & 5 of last 7
--Bears D'Andre Swift has gone over 52.5 rushing yards in 3 straight, 5of6, and 7of9
--Dolphins De'Von Achane has topped listed 82.5 rush yards in in 5 of last 6 at home; gone over last 4 of 5 overall; he's topped 116.5 rushing & receiving yards in last 4 of 5 at home, and 3 of last 5 overall
--Saints Chris Olave topped listed 65.5 receiving yards in 3 of last 4 at home, missing once with 63); he's topped his reception total (5.5 at beauty +105) in 8 of 14 overall; 7 of 7 in home games!
--49ers George Kittle has topped 59.5 receiving yards in 5 straight
The dark ate the rest of my memory notes. I hope it eats Monday for dessert.
The dark bite of the soul.
en.wikipedia.org
Good Luck
Can't keep a good man down.
Can't keep a bad man up.
Highlight last week was hitting a small profit on player props despite going 2-9 on 'em. Lowlights included TNF (again) and one or three other double-doinks.
NFL week 16
===========
(current conference playoff seed;W-L/avg. for-against/opponent passer rating/team rankings predictive power rating/espn's fpi/nfelo power rating)
===========
thurs 8:15 rams(1;11-3/30-18.6/85.6--/+9.4/+7.2/+7.7)@Seahawks(5;11-3/28.9-17.3/77.1++/+7.9/+4.6/+6.6)
--Adams(dbt)&Nacua(in); Stafford 6-0 as Ram vs Seat(3-0 there)
--likely rain; medium wind
sat 5pm eagles(3;9-5/22.8-19.3/75.6++/+4.5/+4.5/+4.3)@Commanders(e;4-10/20.8-26.8/107.3+/-3.5/-3.5/-4.2)
sat 8:20 packers(7;9-4-1-/24.8-20.1/91.7--/+4.0/+4.8/+4.4)@Bears(2;10-4/26.1-24.1/88.8+/+0.5/+0.1/+0.6)
--opposing teams 3-10 after facing Broncos(gb); gb crap red zone O lately(past 4 games;4th worst O grade-PFF)
--cold; medium wind
sun 1pms:
bills(6;10-4/29.3-23.1/82.2/+5.5/+3.4/+4.7)@Browns(e;3-11/16.1-23.7/91.5/-7.6/-11.3/-6.6)
--cold & windy
jets(e;3-11/19.7-28.3/104.9-/-8.2/-8.3/-9.7)@Saints(e;4-10/16.1-23.7/96.5++/-7.4/-5.0/-6.1)
vikings(e;6-8/20.6-21.9/90.2++/-0.1/-2.1/-2.4)@Giants(e;2-12/21.4-28.3/98.6-/-5.2/-1.6/-4.7)
--medium wind
buccaneers(4;7-7/23.3-25.3/96.2/-0.4/-1.0/-2.5)@Panthers(9;7-7/18.8-22.6/88.9/-4.1/-4.3/-4.2)
--Baker 5-0 career vs Panthers (2-0 road); bucs O & D dispute post-last collapse--no pressure without blitzing, a la KC
chiefs(e;6-8/23.4-19.1/92.1/+5.3/-0.3/-0.1)@Titans(e;2-12/16.1-28.1/106.2-/-8.4/-8.6/-7.7)
--Slight Chance Rain Showers
chargers(5;10-4/22.5-20.3/71.3+/+1.3/+1.6/+0.3)@Cowboys(10;6-7-1/29.1-30/109.1/-1.3/0.0/-0.5)
bengals(e;4-10/22.4-31.2/104.1/-4.8/+0.3/-2.4)@Dolphins(e;6-8/21.1-23.1/102.3+/-3.3/-3.0/-3.3)
--Slight Chance Rain Showers
4:05 falcons(e;5-9/20.1-24.3/92.1/-3.7/-3.9/-2.6)@Cardinals(e;3-11/21.6-27.7/95.4--/-3.0/-4.3/-4.9)
4:05 jaguars(3;10-4/26.8-20.8/81.4++/+4.2/+1.6/+1.5)@Broncos(1;12-2/24.4-18.6/79.2/+3.2/+3.0/+2.5)
--Jags vg run D; Den struggling to run
4:25 steelers(4;8-6/24-23.3/90.3/+0.5/-0.4/+0.1)@Lions(8;8-6/30.5-24.6/94.0/+5.9/+5.0/+4.8)
--Lions RB David Montgomery out
4:25 raiders(e;2-12/14-25.9/99.3-/-8.9/-8.2/-7.1)@Texans(7;9-5/23.1-16.3/72.4/+6.7/+3.9/+2.9)
8:20 patriots(2;11-3/27.3-19.7/96.3/+2.2/+0.9/+1.8)@Ravens(9;7-7/23.9-22.8/87.3/+2.3/+3.4/+2.2)
--NE bad in red zone both ways
--Slight Chance Snow; medium wind
mon 8:15 49ers(6;10-4/24.5-20.9/101.1+/+3.1/+3.3/+2.5)@Colts(8;8-6/28-21.6/86.2/+3.9/-2.3/+1.9)
-----
1H rams +110 100/110
rams +114 200/228
eagles -6.5 -106 106/100
1H Bears -110 110/100
Bears -104 208/200
Saints -4 -106 159/150
Panthers +142 100/142
Broncos -3 -110 110/100
Ravens -3 +100 150/150
49ers -6 -109 109/100
=1352(10)
T3/10 rams +11 / Bears +9 / Texans -4.5 -130 130/100
T3/10 rams +11 / bills pk / Texans -4.5 -130 130/100
T3/10 rams +11 / Panthers +13 / Broncos +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 Bears +9 / Cowboys +9 / Ravens +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 bills@Browns un52 / Texans -4.5 / Ravens +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 Saints +6 / Texans -4.5 / 49ers +4 -130 65/50
T3/10 chargers@Cowboys un59.5 / patriots@Ravens un58 / 49ers@Colts un56 -130 65/50
=585(7)
P2 eagles -286 / Cowboys -129 <+139> 50/69.79
P2 eagles -286 / Ravens -157 <+121> 50/60.46
P2 Saints -227 / Cowboys -129 <+155> 50/77.86
P2 Saints -227 / Ravens -157 <+135> 50/67.90
=200(4)
Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +250 50/125
Rams Davis Allen anytime TD +600 50/300
Bears D'Andre Swift 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +800 50/400
Panthers Tetairoa McMillan to score 2+ TDs +1100 25/275
---
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov53.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Bears D'Andre Swift ov52.5 rushing yards -118 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov65.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 /
/ Dolphins De'Von Achane ov116.5 rushing & receiving yards -115 <+245> 50/122.70
P3 Rams Blake Corum ov38.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Saints Chris Olave ov5.5 receptions +105 /
/ 49ers George Kittle ov59.5 receiving yards -115 <+616> 25/154.13
P3 Seahawks Rashid Shaheed ov35.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Saints Chris Olave ov65.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Dolphins De'Von Achane ov82.5 rushing yards -115 <+553> 25/138.37
P3 Seahawks Rashid Shaheed longest reception ov18.5 -118 /
/ Eagles Jalen Hurts anytime TD scorer +105 /
/ Panthers Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD +155 <+865> 25/216.44
=350(9)
Rams employed 13 personnel, with 3 tight ends in the game, quite a bit this year, especially when they were without top WR Nacua. Key red zone target Adams is likely out so I'm expecting one or more RZ targets for one of these bad boys TE's to take while rumbling into the end zone.
Other player prop notes:
--Rams Kyren Williams has gone over the rush+recepts line (65.5) in 6 of past 7 & 12of14 overall, with failures reaching 48 & 65; he's topped the rushing number, alone (53.5), in 7 of past 8 and 12 of 14 overall
--Rams Blake Corum has gone over his rushing total (38.5) in 3 straight & 5 of last 7
--Bears D'Andre Swift has gone over 52.5 rushing yards in 3 straight, 5of6, and 7of9
--Dolphins De'Von Achane has topped listed 82.5 rush yards in in 5 of last 6 at home; gone over last 4 of 5 overall; he's topped 116.5 rushing & receiving yards in last 4 of 5 at home, and 3 of last 5 overall
--Saints Chris Olave topped listed 65.5 receiving yards in 3 of last 4 at home, missing once with 63); he's topped his reception total (5.5 at beauty +105) in 8 of 14 overall; 7 of 7 in home games!
--49ers George Kittle has topped 59.5 receiving yards in 5 straight
The dark ate the rest of my memory notes. I hope it eats Monday for dessert.
The dark bite of the soul.
Dark Night of the Soul - Wikipedia
Good Luck
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