week 16

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thru wk15:2025 NFL: 133-223-7 -4363.45

Can't keep a good man down.
Can't keep a bad man up.
Highlight last week was hitting a small profit on player props despite going 2-9 on 'em. Lowlights included TNF (again) and one or three other double-doinks.

NFL week 16
===========
(current conference playoff seed;W-L/avg. for-against/opponent passer rating/team rankings predictive power rating/espn's fpi/nfelo power rating)
===========
thurs 8:15 rams(1;11-3/30-18.6/85.6--/+9.4/+7.2/+7.7)@Seahawks(5;11-3/28.9-17.3/77.1++/+7.9/+4.6/+6.6)
--Adams(dbt)&Nacua(in); Stafford 6-0 as Ram vs Seat(3-0 there)
--likely rain; medium wind
sat 5pm eagles(3;9-5/22.8-19.3/75.6++/+4.5/+4.5/+4.3)@Commanders(e;4-10/20.8-26.8/107.3+/-3.5/-3.5/-4.2)
sat 8:20 packers(7;9-4-1-/24.8-20.1/91.7--/+4.0/+4.8/+4.4)@Bears(2;10-4/26.1-24.1/88.8+/+0.5/+0.1/+0.6)
--opposing teams 3-10 after facing Broncos(gb); gb crap red zone O lately(past 4 games;4th worst O grade-PFF)
--cold; medium wind
sun 1pms:
bills(6;10-4/29.3-23.1/82.2/+5.5/+3.4/+4.7)@Browns(e;3-11/16.1-23.7/91.5/-7.6/-11.3/-6.6)
--cold & windy
jets(e;3-11/19.7-28.3/104.9-/-8.2/-8.3/-9.7)@Saints(e;4-10/16.1-23.7/96.5++/-7.4/-5.0/-6.1)
vikings(e;6-8/20.6-21.9/90.2++/-0.1/-2.1/-2.4)@Giants(e;2-12/21.4-28.3/98.6-/-5.2/-1.6/-4.7)
--medium wind
buccaneers(4;7-7/23.3-25.3/96.2/-0.4/-1.0/-2.5)@Panthers(9;7-7/18.8-22.6/88.9/-4.1/-4.3/-4.2)
--Baker 5-0 career vs Panthers (2-0 road); bucs O & D dispute post-last collapse--no pressure without blitzing, a la KC
chiefs(e;6-8/23.4-19.1/92.1/+5.3/-0.3/-0.1)@Titans(e;2-12/16.1-28.1/106.2-/-8.4/-8.6/-7.7)
--Slight Chance Rain Showers
chargers(5;10-4/22.5-20.3/71.3+/+1.3/+1.6/+0.3)@Cowboys(10;6-7-1/29.1-30/109.1/-1.3/0.0/-0.5)
bengals(e;4-10/22.4-31.2/104.1/-4.8/+0.3/-2.4)@Dolphins(e;6-8/21.1-23.1/102.3+/-3.3/-3.0/-3.3)
--Slight Chance Rain Showers
4:05 falcons(e;5-9/20.1-24.3/92.1/-3.7/-3.9/-2.6)@Cardinals(e;3-11/21.6-27.7/95.4--/-3.0/-4.3/-4.9)
4:05 jaguars(3;10-4/26.8-20.8/81.4++/+4.2/+1.6/+1.5)@Broncos(1;12-2/24.4-18.6/79.2/+3.2/+3.0/+2.5)
--Jags vg run D; Den struggling to run
4:25 steelers(4;8-6/24-23.3/90.3/+0.5/-0.4/+0.1)@Lions(8;8-6/30.5-24.6/94.0/+5.9/+5.0/+4.8)
4:25 raiders(e;2-12/14-25.9/99.3-/-8.9/-8.2/-7.1)@Texans(7;9-5/23.1-16.3/72.4/+6.7/+3.9/+2.9)
8:20 patriots(2;11-3/27.3-19.7/96.3/+2.2/+0.9/+1.8)@Ravens(9;7-7/23.9-22.8/87.3/+2.3/+3.4/+2.2)
--NE bad in red zone both ways
--Slight Chance Snow; medium wind
mon 8:15 49ers(6;10-4/24.5-20.9/101.1+/+3.1/+3.3/+2.5)@Colts(8;8-6/28-21.6/86.2/+3.9/-2.3/+1.9)
-----

1H rams +110 100/110
rams +114 200/228
eagles -6.5 -106 106/100
1H Bears -110 110/100
Bears -104 208/200
Saints -4 -106 159/150
Panthers +142 100/142
Broncos -3 -110 110/100
Ravens -3 +100 150/150
49ers -6 -109 109/100
=1352(10)

T3/10 rams +11 / Bears +9 / Texans -4.5 -130 130/100
T3/10 rams +11 / bills pk / Texans -4.5 -130 130/100
T3/10 rams +11 / Panthers +13 / Broncos +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 Bears +9 / Cowboys +9 / Ravens +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 bills@Browns un52 / Texans -4.5 / Ravens +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 Saints +6 / Texans -4.5 / 49ers +4 -130 65/50
T3/10 chargers@Cowboys un59.5 / patriots@Ravens un58 / 49ers@Colts un56 -130 65/50
=585(7)

P2 eagles -286 / Cowboys -129 <+139> 50/69.79
P2 eagles -286 / Ravens -157 <+121> 50/60.46
P2 Saints -227 / Cowboys -129 <+155> 50/77.86
P2 Saints -227 / Ravens -157 <+135> 50/67.90
=200(4)

Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +250 50/125
Rams Davis Allen anytime TD +600 50/300
Bears D'Andre Swift 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +800 50/400
Panthers Tetairoa McMillan to score 2+ TDs +1100 25/275
---
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov53.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Bears D'Andre Swift ov52.5 rushing yards -118 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov65.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 /
/ Dolphins De'Von Achane ov116.5 rushing & receiving yards -115 <+245> 50/122.70
P3 Rams Blake Corum ov38.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Saints Chris Olave ov5.5 receptions +105 /
/ 49ers George Kittle ov59.5 receiving yards -115 <+616> 25/154.13
P3 Seahawks Rashid Shaheed ov35.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Saints Chris Olave ov65.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Dolphins De'Von Achane ov82.5 rushing yards -115 <+553> 25/138.37
P3 Seahawks Rashid Shaheed longest reception ov18.5 -118 /
/ Eagles Jalen Hurts anytime TD scorer +105 /
/ Panthers Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD +155 <+865> 25/216.44
=350(9)

Rams employed 13 personnel, with 3 tight ends in the game, quite a bit this year, especially when they were without top WR Nacua. Key red zone target Adams is likely out so I'm expecting one or more RZ targets for one of these bad boys TE's to take while rumbling into the end zone.

Other player prop notes:
--Rams Kyren Williams has gone over the rush+recepts line (65.5) in 6 of past 7 & 12of14 overall, with failures reaching 48 & 65; he's topped the rushing number, alone (53.5), in 7 of past 8 and 12 of 14 overall
--Rams Blake Corum has gone over his rushing total (38.5) in 3 straight & 5 of last 7
--Bears D'Andre Swift has gone over 52.5 rushing yards in 3 straight, 5of6, and 7of9
--Dolphins De'Von Achane has topped listed 82.5 rush yards in in 5 of last 6 at home; gone over last 4 of 5 overall; he's topped 116.5 rushing & receiving yards in last 4 of 5 at home, and 3 of last 5 overall
--Saints Chris Olave topped listed 65.5 receiving yards in 3 of last 4 at home, missing once with 63); he's topped his reception total (5.5 at beauty +105) in 8 of 14 overall; 7 of 7 in home games!
--49ers George Kittle has topped 59.5 receiving yards in 5 straight

The dark ate the rest of my memory notes. I hope it eats Monday for dessert.
The dark bite of the soul.

Dark Night of the Soul - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Good Luck

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edit 1: dessert has 2 snakes
edit 2: David Montgomery is NOT out (zero clue my source of that brain cramp)

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[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm not sure if "being on the right side" is a real thing if you lose, but that last TNF was worth the price of my mistakes. +11's were solid, 1H fluke cashed, and mixed bag on the player props (Williams and Corum not in question, but Rashid Shaheed as kick returner somewhat explains his limited targets). Down 240 from TNF, or a little better than recent openers.

Running out of blue Sundays, and not attracted by Saturday's sun, but this weekend has some killer games. I like lots but need to see what's still alive post-Saturday night's fights.

---
T2/6 eagles -1 / Lions -1 -110 110/100 (moneyline parlay about -152)
T2/6 bills -4.5 / Lions -1 -110 55/50
T3/6 Saints pk / Lions -1 / 49ers pk +160 50/80 (3ml pays app. +145)
T4/6 bills@Browns un47.5 / jaguars@Broncos ov41 / Lions -1 / Texans -8.5 +260 50/130
=265(4)

Dolphins Greg Dulcich anytime TD +600 25/150
Patriots Kayshon Boutte anytime TD +300 40/120
49ers Kyle Juszczyk anytime TD +725 20/145
---
P2 Bears D'Andre Swift anytime TD +125 /
/ Eagles Saquon Barkley anytime TD -115 <+320> 50/160.33
P3 Eagles A.J. Brown anytime TD +125 /
/ Packers Luke Musgrave ov20.5 receiving yards -110 /
/ Patriots TreVeyon Henderson ov54.5 rushing yards -118 <+693> 25/173.39
P2 Eagles Dallas Goedert anytime TD +180 /
/ Falcons Tyler Allgeier anytime TD +135 <+558> 25/139.50
P3 Eagles Dallas Goedert ov40.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Vikings Jordan Mason ov46.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Steelers Kenneth Gainwell ov34.5 rushing yards +100 <+599> 25/149.76
P3 Eagles Saquon Barkley anytime TD -115 /
/ Vikings Jordan Mason anytime TD +175 /
/ Buccaneers Mike Evans anytime TD +150 <+1185> 25/296.33
P3 Eagles Jalen Hurts anytime TD scorer +100 /
/ Saints Juwan Johnson ov37.5 receiving yards -110 /
/ Ravens Lamar Jackson anytime TD scorer +300 <+1427> 25/356.82
P2 Saints Chris Olave ov64.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Dolphins De'Von Achane ov82.5 rushing yards -115 <+249> 50/124.76
P2 Panthers Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD +150 /
/ Steelers DK Metcalf anytime TD +155 <+537> 40/215
=350(11)

More expected from the Lions, this season, than Steelers, no doubt, but I'm mildly convinced that the Steelers are in as much disarray as said Lions, as I'm sure that Steelers are done but not quite sure where the Lions are...should score a-plenty, at least.

Limited excuse for the player prop irrational exuberance includes:
--Patriots TreVeyon Henderson has gone ov54.5 rushing yards in 7 straight
--shit...didn't include Bengals Chase Brown, yet, but he's topped listed 78.5 rushing + receiving yards in 7 of his past 8
--Packers TE Luke Musgrave has achieved ov20.5 receiving yards in 3 straight, becoming more relied upon post-Tucker Kraft injury
--Saints should rock and Juwan Johnson has made ov37.5 receiving yards in 4 of past 5 & past 6 of past 8
--Steelers Kenneth Gainwell has been more productive, lately, than Jaylen Warren, who has dropped off the charts in yards/attempt over past 4 games
--Ravens Lamar Jackson appears to have gravity working in his favor, as his leg injury has moved from knee to ankle to foot and maybe poof; Patriots much-needed lesson is mid-stream; Vrabel will not be on the field

Some of that worked. Numbers are "real".
I am still cursed. Caveat emptor.

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[EXTRAPOLATER]

Last second too good to be true player props from chopped legs.


P3 Vikings Jordan Mason ov46.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Saints Juwan Johnson ov37.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Bengals Chase Brown ov76.5 rush + rec yards -115 <+553> 50/276.73

tunes if stand ups

Good Luck

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Apparently, FanDuel has a forgiveness rule for player props when a player gets injured in the first quarter. Straights only, not parlays (similar to mgm's Second Chance on anytime TDs). Not playing at FanDuel, and wouldn't have saved my Jordan Mason plays regardless; needed a TD from him for juicy pay as Mike Evans and Saquon Barkley both scored.

Too much action justified by "not the arrival, but the journey" nonsense.
The Gainwell looks a gimme. Despite my go Lions sentiments.

P2 Steelers Kenneth Gainwell ov31.5 rushing yards -118 /
/ Patriots TreVeyon Henderson ov49.5 rushing yards -115 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Steelers Kenneth Gainwell ov31.5 rushing yards -118 /
/ Ravens Derrick Henry ov80.5 rushing yards -118 <+241> 50/120.65

Monday will not come.
Abracadabra. Hocus Pocus.

Good Luck

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[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm threatening to turn a plus, dagnabbit.
Beware demons of hell that pursue.

T2/7 Lions -0.5 / Texans -7 -150 300/200

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