Week 17 Misc Analysis

[Senor Capper]

NFL forecast (T. Moss)
Cincinnati (7-8) at Philadelphia (13-2),

Sunday, 1:00 (Cincinnati -3)

Eagles fans that ponied up big bucks for those pricey seats at Lincoln Financial Field might feel a bit cheated this week, when Andy Reid puts most of his starters on lockdown for the second straight game as the team takes on the Bengals. Clearly, the Eagles' goals are less about providing entertainment value and more about reaching the Super Bowl, and to shoot for any less would be an even greater injustice to the team's supporters. If Philly fans get to their seats early, they can see quarterback Donovan McNabb play a series, as he did in Monday's 20-7 loss to the Rams. McNabb completed all three of his pass attempts for 36 yards and a seven-yard touchdown pass to Freddie Mitchell. McNabb then yielded to backups Koy Detmer (1-6 passing, 5 yards) and Jeff Blake (4-14, 41 yards), who worked poorly behind the second-string offensive line. Running back Brian Westbrook did not appear in the game, with Dorsey Levens (10 carries, 44 yards) getting most of the reps. Most of the Eagles starting defense will also watch from the sideline this Sunday, as Bengals QB Carson Palmer looks to return from a sprained left knee for the season finale. Jon Kitna (20-32, 186 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT), received his second straight start last week, leading Cincinnati to a 23-22 win over the Giants. Wideout Chad Johnson caught two touchdown passes in the game. If the Eagles take a similar personnel approach this week, I see no real reason that they'll be able to beat the Bengals. Cincinnati is playing for a .500 record, and they'll get it against a preseason-style Philadelphia club.

Bengals 24, Eagles 17.

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Cleveland (3-12) at Houston (7-8),

Sunday, 1:00 (Houston -10?)

The type of progress made by the Houston Texans over the past two years is exactly what the NFL expects from expansion teams. Houston was 4-12 in its inaugural season, improved to 5-11 last year, and with a win over dreadful Cleveland on Sunday, can post the first .500 campaign in team history. Believe me when I say that slow ascendance sits much better with the NFL suits than did the meteoric two-year rise to the Super Bowl exhibited by Carolina and Jacksonville in the mid-90s. The Texans stunned the Jaguars on the road last week, 21-0, with Domanick Davis rushing for 150 yards on 30 carries and the Houston defense limiting Jacksonville to six first downs and 126 total yards all day. Speaking of deficient offenses, Cleveland trotted its own out in a 10-7 loss to the Dolphins on Sunday night. The Browns, who have now scored 29 points in four games under interim head coach Terry Robiskie, turned the ball over four times and received another rookie-type performance from quarterback Luke McCown (9-16 passing, 161 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT). McCown should start this week, though Kelly Holcomb (ribs) could also be available. Lee Suggs was a bright spot for the Browns in the Miami loss, rushing 38 times for 143 yards in the game. Despite their offensive struggles, I think Cleveland can at least hang around with Houston in an effort to give Robiskie a win. If Holcomb plays, the Browns could even prevail. But I'll take the Texans, who are more of a sure thing at this stage and will be eager to give the home fans a positive moment to take into the offseason.

Texans 20, Browns 16.

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Detroit (6-9) at Tennessee (4-11),

Sunday, 1:00 (Detroit -3)

Win or lose this week, Tennessee's sudden fall from grace has to rank among the NFL's most stunning developments of 2004. The Titans were 12-4 and a heartbeat away from the AFC Championship game last year, and just one year later are in line for a top five draft pick. Injuries have so decimated the roster that many of the players taking the field against Detroit this Sunday were complete unknowns when the season began with a win over Miami. Tennessee quarterback Billy Volek (8-20 passing, 111 yards, 2 INT last week) left last week's 37-16 loss to Denver with sore knees, but is expected to start against the Lions in favor of third-stringer Doug Johnson (4-7, 26 yards). The status of running back Chris Brown (toe), who missed the Broncos game, is unknown. The Lions' personnel will be more certain, as quarterback Joey Harrington (15-30 passing, 166 yards, 1 INT last week) and running back Kevin Jones (25 carries, 123 yards, 1 INT) will be among those trying to build on the club's 19-13 win over the Bears last week. The victory was just the second in nine games for Steve Mariucci's crew, which started the year 4-2. The Lions are clearly the better and healthier team at this stage of the season, but I refuse to pick a dome team on the road in January (did I just tip off my Vikings/Redskins, Broncos/Colts, Seahawks/Falcons, and Panthers/Saints picks?). Jeff Fisher's crew will do what it takes to notch its fifth win of the year, but in narrow fashion.

Titans 21, Lions 20.

 

[Senor Capper]

Green Bay (9-6) at Chicago (5-10),

Sunday, 1:00 (Chicago -3)

If you had told Bears fans before the season that their team would be a three- point favorite over rival Green Bay heading into the final week of the year, with a chance to sweep the Pack in a home-and-home for the first time since 1991, they would have been pretty pleased. Too bad the Monsters of the Midway are only favored because Green Bay has nothing to play for, and too bad the Bears are suffering through yet another frustrating season. The Packers clinched the NFC North and the No. 3 playoff seed with a 34-31 come-from- behind victory in Minnesota on Christmas Eve. Brett Favre (30-43 passing, 365 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) was the offensive hero as usual, connecting 11 times for 162 yards and a touchdown with wideout Donald Driver. While Green Bay was breaking the Vikings' hearts, the Bears were busy having theirs broken in a 19-13 loss to the Lions. An apparent touchdown pass from quarterback Chad Hutchinson (20-35, 114 yards, 1 TD) to wideout Bernard Berrian in the closing moments was ruled an incomplete pass. The defeat overshadowed the best running performance for Thomas Jones (22 carries, 109 yards) since September. The Packers may have nothing to play for, but I think they'll be motivated by the prospect of exacting revenge for a Chicago win at Lambeau Field back in September. The Bears offense isn't good enough to move the ball much, even against Green Bay's second-string, and the home team will disappoint the Soldier Field faithful yet again.

Packers 16, Bears 13.

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Miami (4-11) at Baltimore (8-7),

Sunday, 1:00 (Baltimore -10)

Only eternal Ravens optimists could have much hope as their team heads into its regular season finale with the Dolphins. Sure, Baltimore is still alive in the wild card hunt, and should have little trouble dispensing with Miami, but also needs three of the AFC teams it is chasing to lose. Two of those teams, Denver (vs. Indianapolis) and Buffalo (vs. Pittsburgh), will be facing opponents with nothing to play for, and the other, Jacksonville (at Oakland), will match up with a 5-10 Raiders team that cleaned out their lockers in preparation for the offseason in about Week 12. But hope is hope. Brian Billick's team went to Pittsburgh and endured a 20-7 loss last Sunday, as running back Jamal Lewis (14 carries, 26 yards, 1 TD) was handled and Steeler rusher Jerome Bettis (27 carries, 117 yards) had his way. The Steelers rolled up 404 total yards, including 183 on the ground, against Baltimore's once- proud unit. The Ravens should have an easier time containing Miami, which will apparently give former third-string quarterback Sage Rosenfels the first start of his career. A.J. Feeley, who threw for 176 yards and a touchdown in last Sunday's 10-7 win over the Browns, is nursing sore ribs. The Miami defense, which allowed Cleveland's Lee Suggs to rush for 143 yards on 38 carries last week, will have to do a better job against Lewis. The Raven "D" generally feasts on weak offenses, and the Dolphins' attack is about as weak as they come. Look for Baltimore to force a wealth of turnovers, and to end its season on a high note.

Ravens 37, Dolphins 7.

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Minnesota (8-7) at Washington

(5-10), Sunday, 1:00 (Minnesota -4?)

Everything sets up for Minnesota pretty nicely this week, and yet, you still can't have a lot of confidence in the Vikings. Mike Tice's team will take on an inferior opponent in the Redskins, a foe that will be playing without perhaps its two top players, running back Clinton Portis and linebacker LaVar Arrington. Minnesota figures to play with intensity in what amounts to a must- win game, and since it last played on Christmas Eve, will be playing on a little more rest than will the Skins. Despite all the positive circumstances, everyone still has those "Dome team on the road in January" stats on the tips of their tongues, and also has visions of a Viking meltdown against Arizona under similar circumstances last season. The point is, what should be considered the **** of the week is anything but. Minnesota blew a late fourth- quarter lead to lose to Green Bay, 34-31, last Sunday, as the defense gave up 452 yards to waste a solid outing from quarterback Daunte Culpepper (16-23, 285 yards, 3 TD) as well as running back Michael Bennett (17 carries, 92 yards). The defense will have less of a task this week against Washington, as Portis is gone for the year with a torn pectoral suffered in last Sunday's 13-10 loss to the Cowboys. Ladell Betts (13 carries, 53 yards last week) should do most of the running against the Vikings, and quarterback Patrick Ramsey (19-29 passing, 158 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) will also be asked to step up. Even without Portis, I predict that the Redskins will be up to the task. The Vikings will find it difficult to move the football against a quality Washington defense, and Ramsey will make a number of big plays against the weak Minnesota defense. It will be close, but the Skins will pull the upset.

Redskins 21, Vikings 18.

 

[Senor Capper]

Harmon NFL forecast


Atlanta 24 *Seattle 20 - The Falcons should, but probably won't, take advantage of this last pre-playoffs chance to breathe some life into their passing offense against a weak secondary. Seattle outlasted Atlanta 30-24 in OT in 2002.

*Baltimore 22 Miami 6 - The Ravens, like the Falcons, are good on the ground but lousy through the air, though that's bad news for the Dolphins' pass-focused defense. Miami beat Baltimore in a kickers' battle in OT last year, 9-6.

*Carolina 27 New Orleans 17 - Desperation should liven this up: The Saints' passing offense can keep them in it, but their defense can't. John Kasay booted a team-record six field goals as Carolina cruised past N.O. in Week 13, 32-21.

Green Bay 21 *Chicago 14 - They put an end to the Packers' seven-game series streak in September, 21-10, but the Bears haven't swept G.B. in 13 years. If the Pack can't shut down Chicago's offense, though, it'll have wild-card trouble.

*Houston 26 Cleveland 13 - With a faltering passing attack, the Texans will have to beat the Browns on the ground, while Cleveland's hope of an upset is Houston's mediocre secondary. The Browns won their only previous matchup, in '02.

Indianapolis 25 *Denver 20 - If the Broncos' secondary can keep Peyton Manning from blowing things wide open, Denver has a chance here, because its offense can run Indy ragged. The Colts stomped the Broncos in last year's playoffs, 41-10.

Jacksonville 23 *Oakland 18 - Forced to rely on passing because they're the league's weakest running team, the Raiders have no way of surprising the Jaguars' defense. These teams have faced off only twice, most recently seven years ago.

Minnesota 24 *Washington 21 - The Redskins' D may make the Vikings look like postseason pretenders, or Minnesota may blow them out -- or Washington may score at will. In other words, who knows how their first matchup since '98 will go?

*New England 32 San Francisco 9 - As their horrific season ends, the 49ers can challenge the Patriots only through the air; otherwise they're thoroughly overmatched. For what it's worth, N.E. has beaten the 49ers only twice in nine tries.

*N.Y. Giants 17 Dallas 16 - The Giants were a different team in October, when they clubbed the Cowboys 26-10 and found themselves 4-1, matching their '03 win total. Twelve weeks later, for all the wrong reasons, this may be a great game.

N.Y. Jets 20 *St. Louis 17 - Pass-happy St. Louis is a useful pre-playoffs opponent for the Jets, whose secondary will have to be at the top of its game if they hope to advance. The Rams took their sixth in a row from N.Y. three years ago.

*Philadelphia 24 Cincinnati 18 - Facing a Bengals offense that's shown some recent improvement and with a week off to look forward to, the Eagles shouldn't ease up two weeks in a row. Philly got past Cincy 16-7 the last time they met, in '00.

Pittsburgh 14 *Buffalo 13 - This showdown of the AFC's top two defenses is a tossup, because the Bills know how much the Steelers depend on the run. Pittsburgh's 20-3 win three years ago was its fifth in the last six games of the series.

*San Diego 35 Kansas City 28 - Five weeks ago the Chargers and Chiefs cut loose for 31 points in the fourth quarter as S.D. outslugged K.C. 34-31, the Chargers' first victory in K.C. in eight seasons. The rematch looks just as entertaining.

Tampa Bay 16 *Arizona 14 - The Cardinals will be stuck on the ground against the Buccaneers' defense, but they're tough(er) to beat at home, and T.B. loses consistently on the road. The Bucs won last, tying their series at 7-7, in '97.

*Tennessee 20 Detroit 15 - A passing game that ranks in the top third of the NFL should be all the Titans need to get past the Lions, who rank in the bottom third in just about everything. Tennessee was a 27-24 winner three years ago.


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[Senor Capper]

NFL week 17 judgements


I don't know if the Buffalo Bills make the AFC playoffs, but I know they should. And they're in the right place at the right time to get there.

That would be next weekend ... in Buffalo ... against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Under normal circumstances I wouldn't recommend playing the Steelers to anyone, especially a club trying to beat the crowd to the finish line.


Think the Steelers will enjoy running against the combined 640 pounds of Pat Williams and Sam Adams? Now that's a laugh. (Getty Images)
But there is nothing normal about what's going on next weekend in Buffalo, and let me explain. Here's what I like about the Bills' situation:

1.) They're home, where they won their last five. A January game in frigid temperatures is as much an advantage to the Bills as it was to Minnesota when it played at The Met. Unfortunately for Buffalo, there is nothing frigid about next weekend's weather. The early forecast calls for temperatures in the 30s with a chance of rain.

2.) They're playing Pittsburgh. The Steelers clinched home-field advantage Sunday, which means they're in coast mode. A win means nothing to them; an injury could damage their Super Bowl chances. Look for coach Bill Cowher to run through the roster.

3.) Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hurt his ribs Sunday. That's yet another reason for Cowher to feature the scrubs. Expect Roethlisberger to get the day off, with Tommy Maddox running the offense. The Steelers are undefeated with Roethlisberger; they're 1-1 with Maddox.

4.) The Bills aren't hot; they're burning down the house. The club that scored 51 points its first four games -- all of them losses -- averages 38 points over its last six games, all of them wins. In that span they outscored opponents 228-89, for a winning margin of 23 points a game, and never produced fewer than 33 in any start.

So let's hear it for Buffalo. Teams that make the playoffs generally have momentum, and the Bills lead this year's class. They won nine of their last 11. Teams that make the playoffs also run the ball effectively, and Buffalo hammered San Francisco for 226 yards on the ground Sunday. Playoff teams generally play solid defense, too, and that may be the most overlooked aspect to Buffalo's game. Entering Sunday, the Bills were fourth against the run, third against the pass and third overall.

And that was before they held San Francisco to 189 yards and one touchdown.

Yes, I like the Bills' chances next week. I like them a lot. And if they make the playoffs -- with some help from the Jets and Broncos -- you better put the AFC on alert. They're the club nobody wants to play now.


Me-pinions or what we learned this weekend

1. No offense, Chad Pennington, but watching the New York Jets try to score points against the big boys is no privilege. In three games against Pittsburgh and New England, the Jets not only are 0-3 but have two touchdowns in 28 possessions. Tell me how they're going to get through the playoffs -- if, in fact, they make the playoffs -- when they can't find the end zone against the top two seeds.


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[Senor Capper]

2. The Chargers better fix their kickoff coverage before the playoffs. It victimized them against Kansas City a month ago, and it victimized them again Sunday. After the Chiefs' Dante Hall returned one kickoff for a touchdown and came this close to returning another -- fumbling at the San Diego 5 -- coach Marty Schottenheimer promised to get more involved. He better keep working. The kickoff coverage cost them Sunday, with the Colts' Dominic Rhodes -- a guy who averaged 22 yards a return entering the game -- hauling one in for a touchdown and taking another 60 yards. Prior to that, his longest return was 39 yards.




3. Question: Name the last time an NFL team went the entire season without both its starting wide receivers scoring touchdowns. Well, it could happen this year to the Giants. If neither Amani Toomer nor Ike Hilliard score next weekend -- and you have to like their chances of getting blanked based on the first 16 weeks -- they make history. Neither scored this year, and, yes, each played every game.

4. You watch Seattle running back Shaun Alexander and wonder how the Seahawks could expose him to the free-agent market. All he has done is set a club record for rushing (1,616) and touchdowns (19) and move Seattle into the playoffs. The Seahawks wouldn't be where they are without Alexander, whose contract expires after the season, and that makes for a tough decision in February. Seattle can exercise its franchise tag on one of three starters expected to become free agents -- Alexander, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck or tackle Walter Jones -- and you wonder how or why it can't be Alexander.

5. Well, let's see ... that loss to Dallas makes it 14 of the last 15 for poor Washington in the series. When Steve Spurrier took over the Redskins in 2001, he promised to beat the Cowboys, and he did -- once. Nobody else has since Norv Turner in 1997, and that tells me all I need to know about why Dallas coach Bill Parcells stuck with Vinny Testaverde. He and the Cowboys must have wanted this game badly. What do you bet we see Testaverde sit for the season finale?

6. The Denver Broncos knew what they were doing when they packaged cornerback Deltha O'Neal in a trade for the Bengals' No. 1 pick and turned the choice into linebacker D.J. Williams. The guy leads the Broncos in tackles and should finish as only the second rookie in club history -- and the first in 32 years -- to lead the team. The other? Tom Graham, a rookie out of Oregon, in 1972.

7. Too bad Hall waited so long to turn the clock back to 2003. He might've saved the Chiefs if he struck sooner. Hey, the defense stunk a year ago, and Hall pulled Kansas City through early in the season. This time the defense sank on its own until Hall started striking for touchdowns on kickoff returns. Over the Chiefs' last five games, he averages 30.8 yards a return -- with two touchdowns and one near miss. The Chiefs won four of them, and, yes, there's a correlation.

8. The NFL's attempt to increase scoring by officiating the passing game more carefully not only worked; it worked just as coaches and general managers thought it would. Entering this past weekend there were 644 touchdowns passing -- 72 more than at this time a year ago -- while scoring was at its second-highest average in 20 years. Oh, yeah, and we had Peyton Manning break Dan Marino's record for touchdown passes in one season, too.

9. Here's my problem with the Pro Bowl voting: Philadelphia's Jeremiah Trotter starts six games and makes it; Kansas City's Priest Holmes starts eight and does not. Now, Trotter's done an outstanding job since moving in as the starting middle linebacker, but, please, his choice is either a bad joke or a reflection of how bad the middle linebacker position is in the NFC. And Holmes? All he did in eight games was score 15 times -- a pace that, over 16 games, would have broken Holmes' record of 27 set last year. Yet he doesn't make the trip to Hawaii, and Trotter does.

10. San Diego quarterback Drew Brees almost certainly wins comeback player of the year. But what about Buffalo's Willis McGahee? He didn't play a year ago and has more than 1,000 yards rushing. Plus, the Bills are 9-1 when he starts. What about Carolina linebacker Mark Fields? He was sidelined by Hodgkin's disease last year; now he not only starts, but he's been outstanding lately -- with a sack against the Bucs on Sunday. And what about Carolina running back Nick Goings? The team's fifth back entering the season, he was thrust into the starting lineup when the others bowed out with injuries. Now he's run for 100 yards in five of his last six games, including Sunday's 127-yard effort against Tampa Bay. With 775 yards, he surpassed his three-year NFL total as well as the 469 yards he had in his best year at Pitt.


My top five
1. Pittsburgh ... Big Ben strikes 13
2. Philadelphia ... T.O. free for Desperate Housewives cameo
3. New England ... Club contacts Raymond Clayborn for tryout
4. Indianapolis ... Marino Watch over; writers more relieved than Peyton
5. San Diego ... I want to negotiate next paycheck for Drew Brees


My bottom five
1. San Francisco ... This is how you build support for a new stadium?
2. Cleveland ... Suddenly, Butch Davis looks like Paul Brown
3. Chicago offense ... Maybe Michael would like to try QB
4. Daniel Snyder ... Investments down since 1999, last winning season
5. Mike Tice ... Needs to read The Tortoise and the Hare



Proof that you can play in this league
Cleveland quarterback Luke McCown throws the ball high, and he throws it deep. He also throws it about 5 yards short of his target, Dennis Northcutt, and into the hands of Miami safety Arturo Freeman. OK, fine, but then Freeman tries to lateral to teammate Patrick Surtain as he's tackled. Surtain picks up the ball and, in turn, laterals to teammate Sam Madison, who subsequently laterals to Melvin Fowler. One problem: Fowler's on Cleveland, and he recovers the Madison fumble. Brilliant. Where the Browns were on their 40 on one play, they move to the Miami 34 the next. Mistakes like that should cost you ... unless, of course, you happen to play someone like Cleveland. The Browns wound up kicking a 43-yard field goal, but it doinked off the right upright -- and they wound up losing by three.


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[Senor Capper]

NFL week 17 recap

The playoffs start a week early this year.

When the New Orleans Saints play at the Carolina Panthers next Sunday, we'll essentially have a playoff game, an unlikely playoff game considering both these teams have come back from the dead.


The Panthers have won six of seven to rebound from a 1-7 start. (AP)
The Panthers have won seven of eight games to recover from 1-4, while the Saints have won three straight to recover from 4-8. The winner next week will likely get into the playoffs as the sixth seed, although the Saints could get to the No. 5 seed if the Vikings were to lose and they win and the Rams lose one more.

A month ago, the Saints were dead and buried. Their coach, Jim Haslett, was on his way out and their owner was comparing them to a high school team. Now they're one game away from the postseason.

Word is Haslett is playing his players against the world, and it's working. They are rallying behind their fiery coach. And with the way the offense is coming on, they could be a dangerous group come playoff time.

The same goes for Carolina. John Fox has done a great job coaching this team through a myriad of injuries.

If the Rams lose to the Eagles on Monday night, the winner of next week's Saints-Panthers game is in the playoffs. Period. Even without a Rams loss, the Saints can get in if they are in a two-team tie with the Rams since they beat them earlier this season.

It may not be the prettiest of December games when the Panthers and Saints get together, but it will have a playoff feel.

Win, and you may move on.

Who would have thought it with those two a month ago?

Recaps: Saints 26, Falcons 13; Panthers 37, Buccaneers 20


Prisco's Points



Although they lost the game, the Chargers showed well against the Colts in losing in overtime. They will not be an easy matchup for any team in the playoffs. San Diego is much tougher than people think. The offense is always moving the chains with LaDainian Tomlinson and short passes to tight end Antonio Gates. The defense has some weaknesses, but it's good enough. San Diego is for real. That said, their coach made a bad decision against the Colts. Leading 31-23 with just under 10 minutes left, the Chargers had a third-and-9 at the Indianapolis 25. A sack on third down -- that call could be questionable, too -- led to a fourth-and-18 at the Indianapolis' 34. The Chargers punted, and the ball went into the end zone for a net gain of 14. Why not try the field goal with rookie Nate Kaeding, who had already made one from 50? Does 14 yards really matter to Peyton Manning and the Colts offense? Marty Schottenheimer should have tried to go up 11? Bad move, and it's a reason they left Indy without a victory.

Recap: Colts 34, Chargers 31 (OT)

Take your hands, wrap them around you neck, and grab. That's what happened to the Jaguars against the Texans: A big, fat choke job. The Jaguars controlled their own destiny to get to the playoffs, but were shut out by the Texans 21-0, the first shutout since 1995 when the Jaguars were an expansion team. How they can beat Green Bay last week in a classic and not score against the Texans the following week is indescribable. Yes, Fred Taylor was out and Byron Leftwich suffered a mild concussion -- the way he played it looked much worse than mild -- but this is the type of game a playoff team wins no matter what. Say goodnight to those playoff hopes, Jaguars. The good news is at least you should be a contender next year. Recap: Texans 21, Jaguars 0

The Steelers seemed to physically brutalize the Ravens. Pittsburgh ran for 183 yards on the ground while holding Jamal Lewis to 26 yards on 14 carries. In the second half, Pittsburgh ran it right down the heart of the Baltimore defense. The bad news for the Steelers is that Ben Roethlisberger suffered a rib injury, although it's unlikely it will keep him out of the playoff games. He'll probably watch next Sunday when the Steelers play at Buffalo. Recap: Steelers 20, Ravens 7

Vinny Testaverde made a nice 39-yard throw for a touchdown with 30 seconds left against the Redskins for the winning points, but, really, what good is it for him to be playing now? The Cowboys are out of it, and he isn't going to be their starter in 2005. At least we don't think he will be. The Cowboys should be finding out about Tony Romo or Drew Henson. By not playing Henson, maybe coach Bill Parcells is telling us all we need to know. By the way, keep an eye on receiver Patrick Crayton, the player who caught the winning touchdown pass. The Cowboys believe he has ability to become a top-notch receiver. Recap: Cowboys 13, Redskins 10

Did you ever imagine a day when the 49ers would be this bad again? Dennis Erickson should get on the horn to LSU about Saban's job right now. Recap: Bills 41, 49ers 7

What the Patriots did to the Jets is what makes them a special team. Just when it appears they might be starting to reel a bit, losing at Miami last week, they come into Giants Stadium and dominate the Jets. That's what good teams do. They bounce back. The Patriots are a heck of a team, and still should be considered a strong Super Bowl contender. They won't go away. Here that, Pittsburgh? Recap: Patriots 23, Jets 7

Wonder if the Jets fans enjoyed the privilege of watching Chad Pennington throw two interceptions against the Patriots? Pennington should quit worrying about the media and start concentrating on throwing to his own players. Pennington is a good kid, so we'll give him a pass for last week's actions, but he has to start playing better for the Jets to be a real Super Bowl threat.

Willis McGahee is getting a ton of credit for the turnaround of the Bills, who can make the playoffs after starting 0-4. The Bills have won eight of nine games and if they beat the Steelers next week, they have a chance to make the playoffs. Buffalo is 7-0 in games in which McGahee has rushed for 100 or more yards, but this year's top pick, receiver Lee Evans, is also a reason why the Bills have scored 33 points or more the past six games. Evans had two touchdowns against the 49ers. His speed on the outside to compliment Eric Moulds is something that has been missing from the offense after Peerless Price was traded to the Falcons. Evans is proving general manager Tom Donahoe right again by taking him last April, despite his having major knee problems at Wisconsin.

The people who made that wild playoffs commercial for Wild-cherry Pepsi can't be too thrilled with the opening part of it. It features a couple of guys watching a game and the announcer calling a Donovan McNabb to Terrell Owens touchdown. Not this year. Owens, as we all know by now, is out for the playoffs with a broken leg and torn ligaments in his ankle. The Eagles say he could be back for the Super Bowl, but that's really pushing it.

 

[Senor Capper]

So Plummer isn't Jake the Fake. He looked sharp against the Titans. But that can be misleading since the Titans are starting an NFL Europe defense. I pity poor coordinator Jim Schwartz, a good coach handcuffed by his personnel. Recap: Broncos 37, Titans 16

The season is one game from being over, but the Raiders have to be happy with the play that Kerry Collins has given them the past six weeks. Collins has a big-time arm and has matured as a passer. Now comes the hard part for Oakland: Re-signing wide receiver Jerry Porter, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent. Porter can fly, and that's always a wanted commodity on the open market. He has indicated he would like to return to Oakland, but saying it now compared to when big money is being offered elsewhere are two different things. The way Al Davis loves deep speed, it would be hard to imagine Davis letting Porter get away. Recap: Chiefs 31, Raiders 30

The Chiefs changed their defensive coordinator in the offseason, going to Gunther Cunningham, thinking that it would improve that unit. It didn't. So now comes something they should have done last year, which is change the players. They need better people coming off the edge and in the secondary. The status quo isn't good enough. You can't make chicken salad out of chicken dunk.

Some people were speculating last week that the Titans would be OK if Steve McNair retired because of the emergence of Billy Volek. Think again. Volek is a nice backup, and he's done some good things this year, but he's not a 16-game starter. The Broncos exposed him some Saturday night before Volek was knocked out with a knee injury. If McNair retires, the Titans are in big trouble. Then again, with all their pending cap issues, they're in trouble even if he does come back. At least with McNair, they always have a chance.

The Vikings defense seemed to make strides early this season, but it has regressed as of late. The tackling is awful. Coordinator Ted Cottrell has not had the impact on the defense the Vikings would have hoped. The defense looked so hopeful in the preseason, but the reality is they are another draft away from having a quality 11. Recap: Packers 34, Vikings 31

Warren Sapp had a sack; Warren Sapp had a sack. That's about as believable as Santa really eating those damn cookies. But it's true. Sapp now has 2 1/2 sacks for Oakland. Oh yeah. He's also got a much bigger gut than old Santa.

The officials blew it on Bernard Berrian's 43-yard touchdown catch with 1:26 left for the Bears. It would have been the go-ahead score, but he was ruled out and then when the play was challenged, the ruling was upheld. Bad call all the way around. Berrian was in and the Bears should have scored the touchdown. Shouldn't replay right the wrongs? It didn't in this case. Recap: Lions 19, Bears 13

College football is a great thing. Bowl week is not. How many meaningless games can one person watch? It's time for a playoff, guys.

Speaking of bowls, wonder if Saban can talk Kirk Ferentz, his opposing bowl coach, into considering the NFL? The Cleveland Browns would be wise to try a strong play for Ferentz. Money talks. It lured Saban to Miami even though his wife didn't want to go. Moral of the story: With NFL money you work one year for every two you do in college. That's hard to pass up, especially when 43-year-old men like Reggie White are dying way too young. Recap: Dolphins 10, Browns 7
Player of the week: It's not because of what he did Sunday, but rather what he has done all season. Passing Dan Marino's single-season touchdown record gives this honor to Peyton Manning.

Flop of the week: It has to be the Jaguars. No points with a playoff berth on the line. Is that bad or what?


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[Senor Capper]

The one and only 'Soothsayer" NFL analysis



Bengals (-3) over EAGLES

This is the type of game you hate to have to predict. If this game meant something to the Eagles (13-2), they would be heavy favorites. But the Eagles, win or lose, have cinched the top seed in the NFC. Plus the Eagles are really spooked by the injury to Terrell Owens, so the starters will play no more than a quarter. The Bengals (7-8) are and up and coming team. They could be a force next season. They would love to finish at .500. Take the Bengals and give the points against the Eagles' junior varsity.


Packers (+3) over BEARS

Another game with a playoff team that may decide to rest players. The Packers (9-6) have clinched the NFC North and the #3 seed and there is no opportunity to improve that. Still, Green Bay is more likely than the Eagles or the Steelers to play their starters. Coach Mike Sherman wants to build some momentum and would feel better going into the playoffs at 10-6 instead of 9-7. The Bears (5-10) have not beaten Green Bay in Chicago in over a decade. Take the Packers and the points.


Vikings (-4) over REDSKINS

Here is a game with a team that needs to win to get into the playoffs. The Vikings (8-7) were in the same position last season, and they ended up blowing a big lead to the Cardinals. That game sent them home early and they will try to avoid repeating that mistake against the Redskins. Washington (5-10) had made some progress on offense, but they seemed to slide back last week, suffering a devastating loss to Dallas. Take the Vikings and give the points.


Saints (+7.5) over PANTHERS

This is nearly a playoff game for these two 7-8 teams. The winner will get a wildcard; the loser definitely goes home. The Panthers are one of the hotter teams in the league. They have won six of seven since rediscovering their offense. The Saints have been hot too, winning three in a row. The Saints have no defense, but they can score with the Panthers. Take New Orleans and the points.


RAMS (+.3.5) over Jets

The Jets (10-5) and the Rams (7-8) both need to win in order to get into the playoffs. The Rams would also need some help from Seattle of Minnesota. On paper the Jets are stronger, with a tough defense and strong running game. But their confidence has been shaken after losses to both Pittsburgh and New England in the past month. QB Chad Pennington is copping a major attitude and has not played well enough to back it up. Take the Rams and the points.


CARDINALS (-3) over Buccaneers

The Cardinals (5-10) will finish the season with a losing record for the sixth straight season. There have been some promising signs under Dennis Green, especially on the defense. They are 4-3 at home. The Buccaneers (5-10) are in the midst of a three game losing streak. QB Brian Griese is hurting and Chris Simms may get some playing time. For a team that doesn't run well, that will neuter their offense. Take the Cardinals and the points.


Falcons (+5.5) over SEAHAWKS

The Falcons (11-4) will be the second seed (with a bye) in the NFC no matter what happens in Seattle. Last week the Falcons rested several key players, including Michael Vick. The result was a loss to the Saints. You should see more regulars this week as a tune-up for the playoffs. The Seahawks (8-7) are in the playoffs as at least a wildcard. A win captures the NFC West and a home game in the first round. So you would think that the Seahawks are the choice. But... Seattle has been so inconsistent and has been very poor against good teams. Take the Falcons and the points.


Cowboys (+2.5) over GIANTS

Don't expect a lot of scoring in this game. The Cowboys (6-9) have not scored more than 13 points in the last three games. The Giants (5-10) have had their own offensive trouble during their current eight game losing streak. However, their offense has looked a little better the past two weeks, but they were still losses. Two-and-one-half points seems huge. Take the Cowboys and the points.


Browns (+11) over TEXANS

Despite their offensive shortcomings, the Browns are capable of playing a hard-htting brand of defense. While the Texans will likely come out on top in this game, we look for Terry Robiskie's team to keep it close, especially iof Kelly Holcomb can get under center.


Lions (-1) over TITANS

This game means nothing to these teams, other than defining their draft position. The Titans are banged up on offense while the Lions will look to end the season on a high note. We look for Harrington to air it out a bit to Roy Williams, so take the Lions on the road.


Ravens (-10) over DOLPHINS

If you liked the Dolphins with either Jay Fiedler or A.J. Feely at the helm, then you'll love them with Sage Rosenfelds at the helm. Needless to say, the Dolphins will be lucky to score a field goal in this game. The Ravens need a win and some help to get into the playoffs, so they should be bringing it. We like the Baltimore defense to not allow a TD and score one itself. Take the Ravens and give the points.


Steelers (+9) over BILLS

It is absolutely amazing that the 14-1 Steelers find themselves as 9 point underdogs to the 9-6 Bills. However, the Bills have been perhaps the NFL's most dominant team over the last five games, scoring over 30 points per game and destroying opponents on defense. Playing at home with a wildcard berth on the line, the Bills will be going all out; Pittsburgh is guranteed the #1 seed in the playoffs and will be without QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Jerome Bettis and (likely) Duce Staley. While we feel the Bills will win this one, the Steelers' defense is still very good and will keep the game close. Take the Steelers and the generous points.


49ers (+14.5) over PATRIOTS

This game will be a complete bore... the Patriots should handle the Niners with ease, who are trying to "earn" the #1 pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. The only question is whether or not the Patriots' scrubs can cover the spread after Tom Brady, Corey Dillon et al take a seat. Our guess is that the Niners manage to keep it within two TDs by playing keep away with RB Kevan Barlow. Take the Niners and the points.


Colts (+8.5) over BRONCOS

The Colts are locked into the #3 seed in the AFC and will likely sit the offensive starters after the first quarter-- thereby doing a huge favor for the Broncos, who need a to win to get into the playoffs. The Broncos will look to establish the running gane against a weak Colts' defense and keep the ball out of the hands of Peyton Manning and backup Jim Sorgi. However, in trying to win the game by virtue of their ground game, the Broncos will likely fail to cover the spread. Take the Colts and the points in this one.


Jaguars (NL) over RAIDERS

The Jags need for the Broncos to lose in the early game in order to have a shot at the playoffs. If the Broncos win, look for the Jaguars to mail it in. In either case, the Raiders are a tough matchup for the Jags, as QB Kerry Collins has finally begun to use his big arm to his advantage in Norv Turner's offense. WR Jerry Porter has finally come out of his season-long coma and posted fine back-to-back games. This game was taken off the boards by Vegas, so we'll treat this game as a Pick 'em and go with the Raiders at home.


Chiefs (+3) over CHARGERS

The Chiefs have been an offensive juggernaut the last month, scoring an average of almost 40 points a contest. RB Larry Johnson has finally lived up to his promise as a first-round pick, running for 82-452-7 in those four contests. The Chargers run defense has been outstanding all year, giving up just 82 yards a game. But the Chiefs' offense has been simply too hot down the stretch, and with Drew Brees and LaDanian Tomlinson likely sitting after the first quarter, the Chargers' prospects don't look too good in this one. Take the Chiefs and the points.


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[Senor Capper]

NFL analysis (G. Dulac, Pitt Post Gazette)



Steelers at Bills



Time: 1 p.m., Sunday at Orchard Park, N.Y.


Records: Steelers (14-1); Bills (9-6)


The skinny: The Steelers bring the league's best record and longest active winning streak (club-record 13) to Orchard Park, N.Y., to face the best team that might not make the playoffs. Buffalo has won six in a row and nine of 11 and is seeking to join the 1992 San Diego Chargers as the only teams in NFL history to make the playoffs after an 0-4 start. The Bills do not need any help internally. They have scored 228 points in their past six games -- Chicago (217) and Washington (219) haven't scored that many all season -- an average of 38 points per outing. But the Bills need some outside help to make the playoffs. They need to beat the Steelers and have the Jets or Broncos lose. It likely will happen.


Prediction: Bills, 21-20





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Dolphins at Ravens



Time: 1 p.m., Sunday at Baltimore, Md.


Records: Dolphins (4-11); Ravens (8-7)


The skinny: Not that it matters now, but do you think Miami might have discovered the problem with naming an interim coach? Jim Bates is 3-3 since inheriting the job from Dave Wannstedt and actually has won back-to-back games. Some of his players have campaigned for Bates to get the job on a permanent basis, a point that became moot when Nick Saban was hired as the new coach just days before the Dolphins beat Cleveland, 10-7. Will the Dolphins have a mutiny on their hands with the pro-Bates players? Hardly. But if they beat Baltimore, which still clings to slim playoff hopes, the Dolphins might feel a little sheepish telling Bates to make sure the door doesn't hit him on the way out.


Prediction: Ravens, 20-9




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Browns at Texans



Time: 1 p.m., Sunday at Houston


Records: Browns (3-12); Texans (7-8)


The skinny: The odds makers should not establish a line on this game as much as they should come up with odds on whether Cleveland will manage to score against Houston. In their past two games, the Texans have allowed just five points, and that was a field goal and safety to the Bears two weeks ago. Last week, they shut out what should have been an inspired Jacksonville team, which was in the playoff hunt, 21-0. Meantime, the most points the Browns have scored under interim coach Terry Robiskie is 15, and that was in his first game against New England, a 42-15 defeat. Since then, the Browns have scored 14 points -- total -- in three games.


Prediction: Texans, 23-0




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Bengals at Eagles



Time: 1 p.m., Sunday at Philadelphia


Records: Bengals (7-8); Eagles (13-2)


The skinny: Donovan McNabb played one series in Monday night's loss to the Rams, and Terrell Owens won't even get to play that much in the playoffs, however long Philadelphia survives without him. How much McNabb plays against Cincinnati remains to be seen, but the Eagles have nothing more to gain by beating the Bengals. That being said, the Eagles probably don't want to go into the playoffs on a two-game losing streak even though they have home-field advantage in the NFC. One thing's for certain. The road to the Super Bowl goes through Pennsylvania, either Pittsburgh or Philadelphia or both.


Prediction: Eagles, 23-13




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Saints at Panthers



Time: 1 p.m., Sunday at Charlotte, N.C.


Records: Saints (7-8); Panthers (7-8)


The skinny: Nobody thought this game would mean anything more than a month ago. In early November, Carolina was 1-7 and New Orleans was 3-5. But after a couple of robust comebacks, each team is in contention for a wild-card playoff spot, and the rules are very simple: The winner is in, the loser goes home. The Panthers, who have won six of their past seven, are trying to become the first team to start 1-7 and make the playoffs. The Saints have won three in a row since a 32-21 home loss to the Panthers and are trying to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2000, Jim Haslett's first year as coach. The Saints stayed alive with a 23-16 Vick-tory against the Mike Vick-less Falcons last week.


Prediction: Panthers, 28-21




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Packers at Bears



Time: 1 p.m., Sunday at Chicago


Records: Packers (9-6); Bears (5-10)


The skinny: Green Bay put an end to the ridiculous suspense in the NFC North with a 34-31 victory Christmas Eve against Minnesota that clinched the division title for the Packers -- their third under coach Mike Sherman. Chicago, meantime, had to endure the suspense of a controversial replay decision in a 19-13 loss in Detroit -- a game in which the Bears had an apparent winning touchdown negated by officials after the play was reviewed. The Bears won the first meeting with Green Bay, 21-10, Sept. 19, which was during the Packers' 1-4 start. The Bears haven't swept a season series from the Packers since 1991.


Prediction: Packers, 24-20




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49ers at Patriots



Time: 1 p.m., Sunday at Foxboro, Mass.


Records: 49ers (2-13); Patriots (13-2)


The skinny: C'mon, did you really think New England would lose two in a row? After an uncharacteristic last-minute loss in Miami, the Patriots came back to spank the Jets, 23-7, preventing the Jets from clinching a wild-card playoff spot. The Patriots have way too much character for that, which is why they beat every winning team they face ? with the exception of the Steelers. The victory against the Jets allowed the defending Super Bowl champions to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs for the third time in four years. Even if they rest some of their players against San Francisco, the Patriots are not about to lose to another team with just two victories.


Prediction: Patriots, 31-7




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Jets at Rams



Time: 1 p.m., Sunday at St. Louis


Records: Jets (10-5); Rams (7-8)


The skinny: Unlike the Patriots, the Jets can't seem to beat a team with a winning record. Their only victory against a team which had a winning record when they played it was against San Diego and that was back in Week 2 when the Chargers were 1-0. The Jets need a victory to secure one of the wild-card playoff spots. If they lose to St. Louis, which is 9-0 in December under Mike Martz, they can still get in the playoffs if Buffalo or Denver loses. The Rams stayed alive for the playoffs by beating a watered-down Eagles team Monday night. They still can win the NFC West with a victory against the Jets and a Seattle loss to Atlanta. And they also are still in position for a wild-card spot.


Prediction: Jets, 23-21




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[Senor Capper]

Lions at Titans



Time: 1 p.m., Sunday at Nashville, Tenn.


Records: Lions (6-9); Titans (4-11)


The skinny: Of statistical note is that Tennessee has scored 99 points in its past three games. Even more significant is that the Titans have allowed 126 points in their past three games and 208 in their past five, which is almost as many as they allowed in their first 10 games (212). Their plummet from one of the AFC's elite teams cannot be blamed on the injury to QB Steve McNair as much as a faulty defense. Even McNair's replacement, Billy Volek, is banged up, though he should play against Detroit. The Lions feel they were owed one after a botched snap on an extra point cost them in a one-point loss to the Vikings. They got it last week against the Bears.


Prediction: Titans, 28-27




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Vikings at Redskins



Time: 1 p.m., Sunday at Landover, Md.


Records: Vikings (8-7); Redskins (5-10)


The skinny: Despite losing to Green Bay in a divisional-title showdown, Minnesota remains in good position for a wild-card spot. All the Vikings have to do is beat Washington, which, for them, might be more difficult than it sounds. Overlooked in a season in which Peyton Manning set the league's all-time record for single-season touchdown passes is Daunte Culpepper, who has a club-record 37 touchdown passes and needs three to become only the fourth player in NFL history to throw 40 or more in a season. Washington's defense

(No. 2) continues to rank right behind the Steelers, but the Redskins don't have the offense to complement it. They have scored the second fewest points (219) in the NFL.


Prediction: Vikings, 21-10




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Buccaneers at Cardinals



Time: 4:05 p.m., Sunday at Tempe, Ariz.


Records: Buccaneers (5-10); Cardinals (5-10)


The skinny: There isn't a person outside of Seattle who wasn't rooting for Arizona to beat the Seahawks last week. If they had, the Cardinals, despite their anemic record, would still have had a chance to win the NFC West. Speaking of anemic records, Tampa Bay was still in the playoff picture up until last week, too, despite only five victories. But along came Carolina to put the Buccaneers out of their misery with a 37-20 victory. Since winning the Super Bowl, the Buccaneers are 12-19. Despite a coaching change, the Cardinals are just one victory improved from last season, when they were 4-12.


Prediction: Cardinals, 24-21




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Falcons at Seahawks



Time: 4:05 p.m., Sunday at Seattle


Records: Falcons (11-4); Seahawks (8-7)


The skinny: Seattle still isn't home free for the NFC West title, mainly because

St. Louis, which beat Philadelphia to remain a game behind, has the tiebreaker advantage on the Seahawks should the teams finish tied. But the Seahawks have clinched a least a spot in the NFC playoffs thanks to their 24-21 victory against the Cardinals last week. If they beat Atlanta, which has been guaranteed a first-round bye, the Seahawks will at least ensure getting a playoff game at home. The Falcons kept injured Michael Vick (throwing shoulder) out of their 26-13 loss in New Orleans, and it is unknown how much the richest player in the NFL will appear against the Seahawks.


Prediction: Falcons, 21-17




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Colts at Broncos



Time: 4:15 p.m., Sunday at Denver


Records: Colts (12-3); Broncos (9-6)


The skinny: It has not been an easy finishing stretch for Indianapolis, which has had to close with Baltimore, San Diego and Denver. So far, the Colts have made it through unscathed, stretching their winning streak to eight games, second longest in the league behind the Steelers. The Colts needed a Peyton Manning-led comeback against the Chargers before pulling out a 34-31 victory in overtime last week. The Broncos might be in trouble. Sure, they scored 37 points in last week's victory against Tennessee, but teams are averaging 41.6 points against the Titans the past six weeks. But they need a victory against the Colts to make the playoffs. Of course, all that will do is guarantee the Broncos a first-round playoff game against ? the Colts.


Prediction: Broncos, 24-17




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Jaguars at Raiders



Time: 4:15 p.m., Sunday at Oakland, Calif.


Records: Jaguars (8-7); Raiders (5-10)


The skinny: Jacksonville looked as if its season had ended when the Jaguars lost to the Steelers. Then, it appeared the Jaguars were nothing more than road kill after being shutout at home by the Texans, 21-0. But, believe it or not, the Jaguars still can make the playoffs as a wild card if they beat Oakland and the Bills and Broncos each lose. The chances are slim, mainly because the Jaguars don't look like a team capable of beating the Raiders. It's inexcusable for a team in control of the final wild-card spot to get shut out at home by a team with six victories. Expecting them to beat the Raiders is like expecting Ben Roethlisberger to play against the Bills.


Prediction: Raiders, 23-14




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Chiefs at Chargers



Time: 4:15 p.m., Sunday at San Diego, Calif.


Records: Chiefs (7-8); Chargers (11-4)


The skinny: Right now, if all goes according to plan and seedings, San Diego will be the Steelers' first playoff opponent at Heinz Field. The Chargers are guaranteed the No. 4 seed, no matter what happens against the Chiefs, so San Diego might want to rest some of their players for the postseason. Kansas City is taking a different approach. After a four-game losing streak, the Chiefs are streaking to the finish line, even though they are eliminated from the postseason. They have scored 30-plus points in their past five games, the longest such streak in franchise history. When these teams met last month, the Chargers won, 34-31, and had 498 yards offense.


Prediction: Chargers, 34-31




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Cowboys at Giants



Time: 8:30 p.m., Sunday at East Rutherford, N.J.


Records: Cowboys (6-9); Giants (5-10)


The skinny: One more reason why the networks want the flexibility to alter their prime-time schedule during the season. That won't occur until 2006, but surely ESPN would change this game if it could. New York has lost eight in a row after a 5-2 start. Dallas, which won 10 games a year ago, needed a last-minute touchdown pass from Vinny Testaverde to beat the Redskins last week. Giants coach Tom Coughlin has stuck with No. 1 pick Eli Manning, despite his 0-6 record. Bill Parcells, on the other hand, benched his young quarterback, Drew Henson, because he felt Testaverde gave the Cowboys their best chance to win.


Prediction: Giants, 24-17


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[Senor Capper]

Hank Goldberg article & selections



Playoff teams won't pay off in Week 17

By Hank Goldberg
you go boy
There are seven teams that are in the playoffs and six know when they will be playing.



So beware of New England, Indianapolis, San Diego, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Atlanta. We already know that the Eagles are resting their guys.
Seattle is the seventh team, but has some injury issues on offense.



Of all those, the Patriots could be the only safe pick. The opponent is San Francisco, and the Pats are laying 14. The terrible Niners on the road are a good go-against in Week 17.



Since it became known that Sage Rosenfels will quarterback Miami against Baltimore, the Ravens went from a 9 to a 12-point favorite. The Dolphins have failed to cover nine straight finales. They have coughed up the ball 38 times. Baltimore has 31 takeaways. Sage, meet Ray Lewis.



Carolina hosts New Orleans with the winner having a shot at the playoffs. The Panthers are laying more than a TD, yet are 4-10 as a home favorite. Their defense has given up 54 points the last two games. New Orleans has yielded only three TDs in its last three, all wins.



Jets quarterback Chad Pennington has not been the same since his shoulder injury. He is 2-6 against the spread his last eight on the road. Rams quarterback Marc Bulger is 18-2 in his last 20 starts at home.



Cleveland has lost nine in a row, and is on the road again following Sunday night's game at Miami. The Browns are about to slice 28 players from their roster. Houston is playing to hit .500 for the first time.



Arizona quarterback Josh McCown is 4-1 with the numbers in his last five starts, and the Larry Fitzgerald-Anquan Boldin tandem has five touchdowns the last two weeks. The Bucs are 1-6 spread-wise on the road, and can't see their season end soon enough.



Early picks:

New Orleans +8 at Carolina

St Louis +3? vs. Jets

Giants -2? vs. Cowboys

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL Underdogs: Week 17
Ryan Stetson

:shocked: I love Week 17. :liar:

It?s like preseason all over again - nobody has any idea what to expect. With so many teams already looking ahead to the postseason, it?s hard to know how much or little the big names are going to play or which clubs actually care about winning, what are in many cases, relatively meaningless games.

It?s quite a conundrum for the books and a crapshoot for dog lovers. And as those of you who have been following my picks this year probably figure, I?ll be more than happy to take those odds. Just push a wad on red square, so to speak, and hope for a big payday. More Stories
? Maddox, Scott back in Steelers' lineup
? Saints coach learns about survival, fans, expectations
? Tout loses $20,000 in failed 60 percent bid
? Smoot has 'gut feeling' he might not be back
? Manning's last try for a win in 2004




Might as well. It?s Week 17, after all.

Atlanta +6 at Seattle

So the Seahawks have won a few games and snuck into the playoffs. Good for them. That NFC West is ridiculous. Now Seattle?s seeing chalk against an 11-4 Atlanta club that not only has sewn up a first-round bye, but genuinely wants to win this game.

"We will play to win at Seattle," coach Jim Mora said this week. "That's a long break (with the bye), and we have to stay sharp."

That?s good news for Falcons backers and what?s better is that Mora also expects quarterback Mike Vick to return to the lineup after missing last week?s loss to New Orleans with a sprained left (throwing) shoulder.

"As I stand here today, it's my firm belief that he'll play," Mora continued. "Something would have to transpire with his shoulder that I don't foresee right now for him to stay off the field."

Vick might not be the only Falcon returning to the lineup, either. Mora?s hoping tight end Alge Crumpler, nose tackle Ed Jasper (broken left hand), cornerback Jason Webster (groin pull) and running back T.J. Duckett (minor left knee surgery) all play.

Seattle?s covered just two spreads since coming off its Week 4 bye. Can?t see that trend turning now.

Indianapolis +9 at Denver

It?s simple, really.

I?m jumping on the Colts while they?re getting points because I don?t know when I?ll see them pegged as pups again. Well, that and the fact that Peyton Manning will be taking the snaps for at least part of Sunday?s game.

"We're going out there to win," coach Tony Dungy said earlier this week. "I would like to win No. 13. We'd like to go (into the playoffs) with a nine-game winning streak. There are a lot of things that we want to do in terms of keeping that momentum and continuing to be sharp."

Dungy won?t say exactly how much his first-stringers will play, but word out of Indy is that they?ll see significant minutes.

I think that should be enough for Indy to keep this game within striking distance at the very least. Although the Colts are going to have to step it up against Denver's running game. The Broncos are rumbling for about 170 yards per game over the last three.

Dallas +3 at New York Giants

Eli Manning is slowly getting better and as a result, so too are the Giants. But it?s been a long year for New York.

Over the past few weeks, it?s become painfully obvious that Tom Coughlin has completely lost control of an already divided locker room.

"Guys absolutely hate Tom Coughlin," an unidentified player apparently told the New York Post last weekend. "He's not the type of coach we're going to put everything on the line for. Guys won't play for him; we play because we have to play and you're not going to win that way."

It?s the exact opposite situation in Dallas.

While the Cowboys have struggled through a rough year, too, they?re still playing hard for Bill Parcells. They?ve covered four of the last five spreads they?ve seen and have allowed just 22 points over the last eight quarters.

On offense, Vinny Testaverde gets what might turn out to be his final NFL start Sunday, but Drew Henson and/or Tony Romo will probably see some time as well.

I figure Parcells will make life difficult for Eli and the Cowboys will close out a disappointing season on a positive note.

 

[Senor Capper]

Fast Forward: NFL Week 17 breakdown



Throughout the NFL on Sunday, players, coaches and fans will be pivoting their attention from the game on the field to the out-of-town scores. No fewer than eight games have potential playoff impact.

Game of the Week 1
Jets (10-5) at Rams (7-8)

Two things about this game are hard to believe: the Jets might miss the playoffs and the Rams might make it.


Playing the Eagles second-stringers Monday, the Rams received the NFL equivalent of a bye. (Elsa / GettyImages)

If the Jets lose and the Bills and Broncos win, the J-E-T-S are O-U-T.

The Rams, meanwhile, will be closely monitoring the Redskins-Vikings score. If the Vikes lose, the Rams are in with a win. If the Vikes win, St. Louis will be reduced to needing a win and hoping the Falcons second string can beat the Seahawks in Seattle to deliver the Rams the NFC West title.

The Jets and Rams couldn't be coming off more different games. The Jets were pounded by the defending champion Patriots in the boo-filled Meadowlands while the Rams received the NFL equivalent of a bye at home against the Eagles scrubs.

Expect the Jets to demonstrate how much better a team on the AFC bubble is than one on the NFC bubble.


Game of the Week 2
Saints (7-8) at Panthers (7-8)

OK, let me get this straight: they play in the same division, both teams are 7-8 and Jim Haslett is on the hot seat and John Fox is a genius. Have I got that right?

The winner of this game looks likely to make the playoffs at 8-8.

If the Panthers win, they need only: A) a Rams loss to the Jets B) a Seahawks win over Atlanta or C) a Vikings loss.

It's a little tougher for the Saints, but still quite probable. New Orleans needs a win and a Rams loss or a win, a Seahawks win and a Vikings win.

Don't forget, the Panthers are defending NFC champs and playing as well as anyone in the conference.


Dog of the Week
Cowboys (6-9) at Giants (5-10)

I couldn't pass up one last chance to make fun of another ESPN Sunday night atrocity. I'm sure this looked like a winner in August.

But the Giants now seem intent on outdoing their collapse of last year. The G-men lost their last eight in 2003 and are now poised to drop their last nine this year.

With the emergence of Julius Jones the Cowboys are now at least one-dimensional, an upgrade from the no-dimensional attack they featured for much of the season.


Coaching Battle of the Week
Mike Tice vs. Joe Gibbs

It's simple for Tice and the Vikings: win and you're in. Only nothing is simple for this team or their embattled coach. It's funny how magnified every coaching decision is when you have a terrible defense.


It is pretty simple for Mike Tice and the Vikings: win and you're in.


Just when everybody was ready to rule Gibbs's comeback an unmitigated disaster, the Redskins started smacking people in the mouth. Sure, they've still been losing, but the Washington defense has been outstanding. They may not be playing for a playoff spot, but they are determined to finish first in the NFL in overall defense. Not exactly the unit you want to go up against when you are contending for a postseason slot.

Minnesota can still back into the playoffs with a loss, and the way the 'Skins have been playing D lately, they just might have to.


Individual Matchups of the Week
Kyle Turley v. Mike Martz

First we are denied the Bill O'Reilly phone sex tapes and now we may never know what was said between the lunatic offensive tackle and the world's most mentally challenged genius.


Rams coach Mike Martz questioned Kyle Turley's commitment to rehab.

I only hope if Martz questioned Turley's commitment to rehab, the big fella was able to work in a comment about clock management between threats on the coach's well-being.

Sage Rosenfels v. Terrell Suggs

Sage advice: duck. The Miami third-stringer gets to make his first NFL start against a Ravens team that needs a win (and lots of help) to make the playoffs. Suggs added Big Ben Roethlisberger to his long and distinguished hit list last week.

Bertrand Berry v. Simeon Rice

There might not be much at stake for the Bucs and Cards in the desert on Sunday, but Berry and Rice come in to the finale tied for the conference lead in sacks at 12.5 apiece. With Patrick Kerney, who is half a sack back with 12, unlikely to see much action in the Falcons meaningless game at Seattle, Berry and Rice will have 60 minutes to decide the NFC sack champ.


Joke of the Week
The Tennessee Titans defense. With so many outright sieves masquerading as defenses in the NFL ? the Chiefs, Vikings and Raiders immediately come to mind ? it's hard to believe that the once-proud Titans have surpassed them all as the worst defense in the NFL.

Despite the solid play of stars Keith Bulluck and Kevin Carter, Tennessee has allowed a staggering 208 points in its last five games, all losses, an average of 41.6 points per game.


Karmic Justice of the Week
When the Chiefs drafted defensive end Jared Allen in the fourth round out of Idaho State, the scouts weighed in with "must get stronger," "technically raw" and "doesn't have elite speed."

So here's hoping Allen gets his 10th sack this Sunday at San Diego to tie Derrick Thomas's club record for rookies.


Plea of the Week
To: the Rams and Colts
From: the Bills
Plea: Hook a brother up

It seems unlikely the locked-in No. 3 seed Colts will go into Denver and beat the Broncos, so the Bills playoff hopes may come down to the wildly inconsistent Rams beating the Jets. If the Bills get no help and close out their season with a win over the Steelers as expected, they may go down in NFL history as the hottest team ever to miss the playoffs. They have won six straight by an average of 23.2 points a game.


Lock of the Week
Bills ?9 v. Steelers

Any time you get a team that is playing for something against a team that is trying not to get anyone hurt you really can't put the line high enough. Look for the Bills to take care of their part of the equation and hope for either a Jets or Broncos loss.

Last week's lock: Depite their impressive rally, the Colts failed to cover against the Chargers, breaking my four-game winning streak. Season record: 9-7


This Week's Reason to Love the NFL
Come Sunday at around 7:15 p.m. EST, the playoffs will be here.

And we will be one step closer to the AFC champion's utter and total annihilation of the NFC champ in the Super Bowl. Not only would any of the AFC playoff contenders be favored to win the NFC, you have to figure the Chiefs would be too. The AFC still has a long way to go to make up for the 13-year spanking it endured from 1985 to 1997, but with victories in five of the last seven Super Bowls and another win likely on Feb. 6, the payback continues.


This Week's Reason to Hate the NFL
There is nothing that can be done about, but it's a real drag that the fate of some playoff hopefuls will be in the hands of teams that are just going through the motions and hoping to be healthy for the playoffs. I guess this a good argument for clinching a spot before Week 17.

 

[Senor Capper]

The line this week means nothing
Associated Press

When the line for Denver's home game against Indianapolis came out Sunday night, the Broncos were 5-point favorites, a surprise considering the Colts are 12-3.

By Tuesday, Denver was an 8-point favorite.

Anyone who watched the Rams beat the Eagles' junior varsity Monday night knows exactly what is going on.

The Broncos (9-6) need to beat the Colts to make the playoffs. The Colts need nothing except to stay healthy: They are locked in as the third-seeded team in the AFC and could very well be playing the Broncos again a week later in Indianapolis.

More Stories
? Maddox, Scott back in Steelers' lineup
? Saints coach learns about survival, fans, expectations
? Tout loses $20,000 in failed 60 percent bid
? Smoot has 'gut feeling' he might not be back
? Manning's last try for a win in 2004



So the line reflects the incentive factor, as it does in a number of games this final weekend of the NFL season.

``There are a lot of factors involved in how much they'll play or how long,'' Colts coach Tony Dungy says, referring to his starters, including Peyton Manning, who broke Dan Marino's record for touchdown passes in a season last week.

Dungy is a classy guy, but like all coaches of teams that have clinched all they can clinch, he has to think ``me first.'' Or at least ``us first.''

So maybe Manning will play long enough to throw his 50th touchdown pass. More likely he won't. He has his record; his top three wide receivers each has 1,000 yards; and the Colts prefer to keep everyone healthy for the playoffs.

BRONCOS, 27-6

Pittsburgh (plus 9) at Buffalo
Another glorified exhibition, except that Buffalo needs to win. Real line would probably favor the Steelers by 3 to 6.

BILLS, 20-6

Kansas City (minus 3) at San Diego
A 6-point swing here; the Chargers originally were favored by 3.

Same theory.

CHIEFS, 32-16

New York Jets (minus 3) at St. Louis
Surprise! A game that means something to both teams.

JETS, 24-20

New Orleans (plus 7) at Carolina
Ditto.

PANTHERS, 24-20

Minnesota (minus 4) at Washington
The Vikings need the win, the Redskins are out of it. But Washington will play hard.

REDSKINS, 18-17

San Francisco (plus 14) at New England
The Patriots could play Troy Brown at QB and win. Rohan Davey is more likely.

PATRIOTS, 31-3

Cincinnati (minus 3) at Philadelphia
Marvin Lewis gets his second straight 8-8 season.

BENGALS, 24-7

Miami (plus 11) at Baltimore
Jim Bates saved the little that was left of the Dolphins' season. He'll keep his finale close.

RAVENS, 17-13

Dallas (plus 2) at New York Giants
Eli finally gets over the top.

GIANTS, 20-19

Green Bay (plus 3) at Chicago
Another line-flipper: Packers were favored by 2 at the start. Favre will start to keep his streak, but ...

BEARS, 20-16

Jacksonville (off) at Oakland
Jaguars are still alive but realistically blew a playoff berth last week.

JAGUARS, 21-20

Tampa Bay (plus 3) at Arizona
And flip again _ Bucs were favored by 2.

CARDINALS, 19-14

Cleveland (plus 10) at Houston
Texans have their first .500 season on the line.

TEXANS, 28-7

Atlanta (plus 5) at Seattle
Michael Vick practiced this week. Will he play? Seattle tries to clinch the West.

SEAHAWKS, 24-16

Detroit (minus 3) at Tennessee
The Titans have few healthy bodies.

LIONS, 31-23

LAST WEEK: 7-8-1 (spread), 10-6 (straight up)

SEASON: 104-115-5 (spread), 147-77 (straight up)

 

[ScreaminPain]

Thanks for the time and effort you put into this thread, Senor. If makes for interesting reading.

If someone was "on the fence" before, they certainly can be confirmed after reading all the different opinions..... :142lmao: Week 17 is a "bitch" to 'cap, and this one is no different.

There seems to be a couple of decent wagering oportunities out there. I like Green Bay and Buffalo and a couple of totals, but mostly saving my $ till a game where both teams are trying.

Good Luck on your action this week.

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL Game Day Buzz: Week 17
Ryan Stetson

Start ?em or sit ?em?

Nobody really know how much or little some of the NFL?s premier players are going to be on the field this week, regardless of what their respective coaches say. But here?s quick look at what you can expect.

Pittsburgh: Bill Cowher says he wants Sunday?s game against Buffalo, but he isn?t about to take any chances with some of his banged up starters. Tommy Maddox will start at quarterback for Ben Roethlisberger after Big Ben took a nasty shot last week against Baltimore.

Meanwhile, Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis will also be watching from the sidelines. Cowher says he?s going to substitute the rest of the offensive starters in and out to keep everyone fresh.

More Stories
? Watered-down Colts to determine Denver's playoff future
? Shaun Rogers signs six-year deal with Detroit Lions
? Atlanta and Seattle will suit up their best
? Seattle RB and his mates target NFL rushing crown
? Clark wants to spoil Jaguars' playoff hopes



The books have the Steelers pegged as 9 ?-point underdogs.

New England: It looks like Tom Brady will probably play about a half against the lowly 49ers before Rohan Davey takes over. The Pats are set as 13 ?-point favorites.

Indianapolis: Tony Dungy has said all week that Peyton Manning and the rest Indy?s big guns will see some significant playing time against Denver, critics be damned. Still, it?d be surprising to see Manning taking snaps in the third quarter. The Colts are set as 9-point dogs.

Green Bay: If Brett Favre had his way, he?d take every snap Sunday against the Bears, but Packers coach Mike Sherman will probably have something to say about that. Sherman?s staying tight-lipped about how much his starters will play, but has reiterated the importance of Sunday?s game all week.

?If (Green Bay?s losing), I wouldn?t be surprised if the starters stayed in there so we can win the game,? backup quarterback Craig Nall told reporters this week.

?We?re not that good to sit guys and say we?ll be ready next week,? Favre added.

Atlanta: Not only will Mike Vick play Sunday against Seattle, but depending on how the game turns out, he may end up taking all of the snaps. As long as he?s in there for a while, Atlanta looks great at +205 on the moneyline.

Philadelphia: Philly isn?t messing around. The big names will probably get about as much time as they did last week and hit the showers. The Eagles are getting 3 ?, but by the sounds of things, they should be getting at least a major.

Cover-2 killing Vikes

Joe Gibbs is a smart guy.

That?s why you shouldn?t be surprised if his Redskins, who normally play a ton of man-to-man defense, throw enough cover-2 formations at the Vikes to make Mike Tice?s head spin.

Last week Minnesota torched Green Bay?s secondary, which was using mostly man-to-man coverage in the second quarter. The Vikings shredded the Packers for three passing touchdowns in consecutive possessions and went into the break up 21-17.

Then Green Bay went into the cover-2 and Minnesota offense stalled and was kept off the scoreboard the rest of the way, falling 34-31 as a 3-point chalk.

"When you have guys like Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper, you can only run so much man before they make a play," Washington cornerback Shawn Springs told reporters this week. "You have to do something to slow them down."

I?m thinking the 41-point total might be a bit high. This one might turn out to be a lot closer than most expect.

It?s now or never for Pennington

Chad Pennington may have had a point when he fought back against the New York media last week, but now he?s in a bind. If he doesn?t win Sunday at St. Louis, he?s never going to hear the end of it.

I like the Jets ?3 1/2 here, but it doesn?t have much to do with Pennington. New York?s going to pound the ball all day against St. Louis? suspect rush defense.

More pigskin problems in the Big Apple

Speaking of trouble in New York, how ?bout the pickle Tom Coughlin has himself in?

Right now the only coaching situation in the league the rivals Coughlin?s mess is Dennis Erickson?s tenure in San Francisco. That?s bad.

It?s gotten so bad that the Giants appear to be completely blocking out their head coach. The whole situation could have been avoided if Coughlin had taken his post more as a human being than a dictatorial robot, but that?s beside the point.

Right now the Giants could be getting four touchdowns and I?d still have second thoughts at the ticket window.

 

[Senor Capper]

Sport:NFL - Football
Gameittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills on Jan 2 2005 1:00PM
Predictionittsburgh Steelers
Reason:This is just a terrible line. The prospect of Pittsburgh resting players and Buffalo with their backs to the wall has everyone thinking the Bills should win. However, that overwhelming sentiment has sent this pointspread through the roof. Remember, the Bills don't have to win by 10 to make the playoffs, they just have to win. And I can tell you that if Buffalo gets any sort of lead at all, it will be in their best interest to get conservative and they won't get much fight out of Pittsburgh for that. Remember too, some of the Pitt backups, including Tommy Maddux, began the season as starters and are quite capable in their own right. I think Buffalo can use the home field to get the win, but don't expect a blowout. Buffalo 20, Pitt 14. Take Pittsburgh

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL Analysis (SF Examiner)
Saints-Panthers winner needs help to make playoffs

The Saints and Panthers take identical 7-8 records into Sunday's game knowing that with a little help, a win will result in a playoff berth.

Defending NFC champion Carolina has regrouped from a 1-7 start and a brutal string of injuries. New Orleans has put together its first three-game win streak since 2002, persevering despite rumors about coach Jim Haslett's job status.

Together, they represent what's good and bad about the conference this season. Mediocrity, parity, whatever word you choose, everyone agrees it will make for an exciting finish as the Saints try to avenge a 32-21 loss.

The Saints' defense ranks last or close to it in nearly every defensive category, but during the last three weeks it has played better than the numbers would suggest. New Orleans has held its last three opponents under 20 points and has not allowed more than 300 yards of offense during that stretch.

Carolina will provide a challenge to keep the string intact. Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme threw a career-high four TD passes Sunday -- two to Muhsin Muhammad -- as the offense continues its late-season resurgence.

Muhammad, who has 87 catches for 1,310 yards and 15 TDs, has become the focal point of the Panthers' offense.

These are the scenarios:

- Carolina can clinch a playoff berth with a win over New Orleans and one of the following -- a Minnesota loss to Washington or a St. Louis loss or tie to the New York Jets, or a Seattle win or tie against Atlanta.

- New Orleans can get in with a win over Carolina and one of the following -- a St. Louis loss or tie or a Seattle win or tie plus a Minnesota win or tie.

GREEN BAY (9-6) at CHICAGO (6-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

THE SKINNY: Despite starting 1-4, the Packers won the division for the 3rd consecutive year. The Bears represent the other end of the spectrum in the NFC North. They are headed for their 2nd last-place finish in 3 seasons. Expect Green Bay to rest most of its starters.

EXAMINER PREDICTS: PACKERS 21, BEARS 10

MINNESOTA (8-7) at WASHINGTON (5-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

THE SKINNY: The Redskins are missing key players on both sides of the ball. RB Clinton Portis (torn pectoral) and CB Fred Smoot (kidney bruise) are the latest to be sidelined. Again, the Vikes have faded late. But a win or a tie gets them into the playoffs.

EXAMINER PREDICTS: VIKINGS 30, REDSKINS 17

PITTSBURGH (14-1) at BUFFALO (9-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

THE SKINNY: The Steelers seek to become the 4th team in history to go 15-1. They'll have to do it while resting QB Ben Roethlisberger (ribs). They need a win and some help, but the Bills could become just the 2nd team to start 0-4 and make the playoffs.

EXAMINER PREDICTS: BILLS 28, STEELERS 21

DETROIT (6-9) at TENNESSEE (4-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

THE SKINNY: The Titans, who have lost 5 straight, are headed for the franchise's worst finish in 10 seasons. The outlook isn't much brighter in Detroit, which started 4-2, then lost 7 of 9 prior to last week's win. Lions RB Kevin Jones is 62 yards short of 1,000.

EXAMINER PREDICTS: LIONS 26, TITANS 10

N.Y. JETS (10-5) at ST. LOUIS (7-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

THE SKINNY: With their win over Philly on Monday night, the Rams revived their playoff hopes. If St. Louis can beat the Jets and Seattle loses to Atlanta, the Rams will win the NFC West. The Jets have lost 6 straight to the Rams, dating back to 1986.

EXAMINER PREDICTS: JETS 17, RAMS 10

CLEVELAND (3-12) at HOUSTON (7-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

THE SKINNY: The Browns are the AFC's worst team. The Texans are coming off consecutive wins and haven't allowed a TD in 11 quarters. Cleveland will need another big game from RB Lee Suggs, who set a franchise record by carrying the ball 38 times last week.

EXAMINER PREDICTS: TEXANS 28, BROWNS 13

CINCINNATI (7-8) at PHILADELPHIA (13-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

THE SKINNY: The Eagles have nothing to lose but momentum in the regular-season finale. The Bengals would love to short-circuit Philly's postseason plans a bit. By finishing 8-8, Cincy would post its 1st consecutive non-losing seasons since 1989 and '90.

EXAMINER PREDICTS: EAGLES 20, BENGALS 13

MIAMI (4-11) at BALTIMORE (8-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

THE SKINNY: Miami has hired LSU's Nick Saban but interim coach Jim Bates would love to depart by winning 3 straight. To make the playoffs, the Ravens must win with Buffalo losing to Pittsburgh, Denver losing to Indianapolis and Jacksonville losing to Oakland.

EXAMINER PREDICTS: RAVENS 17, DOLPHINS 14

ATLANTA (11-4) at SEATTLE (8-7)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

THE SKINNY: The Seahawks are nearing the NFC West title but they'll have to clip the Falcons' wings first. Atlanta will be boosted by the return of QB Michael Vick after a 1-week absence. Seattle is likely without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck (elbow).

EXAMINER PREDICTS: FALCONS 35, SEAHAWKS 21

TAMPA BAY (5-10) at ARIZONA (5-10)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

THE SKINNY: There's nothing to play for but pride and a paycheck when the Bucs pay a visit to the desert. Tampa WR Michael Clayton has delivered a superb season (78 catches, 6 TDs). The Cards will counter with WR Larry Fitzgerald (55 catches, 8 TDs).

EXAMINER PREDICTS: CARDINALS 13, BUCS 7

KANSAS CITY (7-8) at SAN DIEGO (11-4)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

THE SKINNY: The Chargers clinched the AFC West title 2 weeks ago but the Chiefs are on a roll, having won 4 straight to get within a game of .500. San Diego has won 8 of its last 9 games and seeks to finish 12-4 for the 1st time since 1979.

EXAMINER PREDICTS: CHARGERS 28, CHIEFS 13

INDIANAPOLIS (12-3) at DENVER (9-6)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

THE SKINNY: Indy has a chance to set a franchise record for wins. The Broncos have a chance to clinch a playoff spot. Be assured the Colts are not going to mail it in. Coach Tony Dungy insists that they're going to Denver with plans to win.

EXAMINER PREDICTS: COLTS 35, BRONCOS 31

DALLAS (6-9) at N.Y. GIANTS (5-10)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

THE SKINNY: Were the Giants really 5-2? An 8-game losing streak has rendered it a hazy memory. RB Tiki Barber needs 94 yards rushing to break Joe Morris' single-season team record of 1,516 yards. The Cowboys will go after scatter-armed QB Eli Manning (3 TDs, 8 INTs).

EXAMINER PREDICTS: COWBOYS 20, GIANTS 9

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL analysis (DJ Boyer)
Miami Dolphins (4-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-7)

Line: Dolphins +10



The Dolphins are 4-0 against the Ravens in their career during the regular season. The only loss they suffered against the Ravens was in the 2001 playoffs when the Ravens waxed them 20-3. The Dolphins are riding a two game winning streak but the Ravens are hungry and need this game. Ed Reed gets two interceptions and leads the Ravens to a win and they cover the spread.



Straight: Ravens

Spread: Ravens





Pittsburgh Steelers (14-1) at Buffalo Bills (9-6)

Line: Steelers +8



You aren?t seeing things, the Bills are 8-point favorites. These are the two hottest teams in the AFC and if the Bills win and make the playoffs it will be a great story. The Bills win but I think they will be on the outside looking in once Denver is victorious. The Bills win as the Steelers rest their starters but they keep it close enough to cover.



Straight: Bills

Spread: Steelers





New Orleans Saints (7-8) at Carolina Panthers (7-8)

Line: Saints +7



Who would have thought that the Saints and Panthers in week 17 would be the marquee matchup? The Panthers win this game but the Saints keep it close and exciting.



Straight: Panthers

Spread: Saints





Green Bay Packers (9-6) at Chicago Bears (5-10)

Line: Bears +2.5



This is another game where starters will be rested for a playoff team. The Packers let Brett Favre and the starters play for a drive or two and then let them take a seat. The Bears win and start building for next season.



Straight: Bears

Spread: Bears





San Francisco 49ers (2-13) at New England Patriots (13-2)

Line: 49ers +14.5



This may be the largest line we have seen all season. Even though New England is locked in to the #2 seed and have nothing to play for they will win this game and cover the point spread. That should speak volumes about the state of the 49ers.


Straight: Patriots

Spread: Patriots





Cleveland Browns (3-12) at Houston Texans (7-8)

Line: Browns +11



The Browns stink, there is no other way to put it. The Texans are pumped about the possibility of having their first season in franchise history that is not a losing one. 8-8 would be a great stepping-stone and I expect them to reach that mark.



Straight: Texans

Spread: Texans





Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)

Line: Eagles +3



This is the game I predicted the Eagles would lose a week ago. I thought the reserves would have a little more for the Rams but it turned out I was wrong. I will go against the Eagles but I still think they will be ready for the playoffs.



Straight: Bengals

Spread: Bengals





New York Jets (10-5) at St. Louis Rams (7-8)

Line: Rams +4



The Rams are back in the playoff chase. The bad news for St. Louis is they have played Buffalo, Miami and New England this year and every game ended in a loss. The Jets will complete the sweep for the AFC East and the Rams will ponder whether or not to finally fire Mike Martz.



Straight: Jets

Spread: Jets





Minnesota Vikings (8-7) at Washington Redskins (5-10)

Line: Redskins +4.5



With Fred Smoot and Clinton Portis likely out of action this looks like a game the Vikings have a shot to win. But the Vikings always seem to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Go with the Redskins.



Straight: Redskins

Spread: Redskins





Detroit Lions (6-9) at Tennessee Titans (4-11)

Line: Titans +1



Can we just hit the fast forward button for this game? When the Lions win and see their 7-9 record they could become very upset when they realize how many winnable games they squandered during the season.



Straight: Lions

Spread: Lions





Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-10) at Arizona Cardinals (5-10)

Line: Cardinals +2



Speaking of the fast forward button, can we use it on this game as well? Take the Buccaneers although anything can happen when the Cardinals play at home.



Straight: Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers





Atlanta Falcons (11-4) Seattle Seahawks (8-7)

Line: Falcons +5.5



The Seahawks win the NFC West as the Falcons rest their team to prep for the playoffs.



Straight: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks





Indianapolis Colts (12-3) at Denver Broncos (9-6)

Line: Colts +5.5



The Colts have little to play for and I think they will let Peyton Manning throw his 50th touchdown pass and then let him rest. If The Broncos win they are in the playoffs and most likely will have the 6th seed. Their first round opponent would be the #3 seed which would be?The Indianapolis Colts. I don?t think the Colts want to give too much away when it comes to their game plan so their starters will be out very early in the football game.



Straight: Broncos

Spread: Colts





Kansas City Chiefs (7-8) at San Diego Chargers (11-4)

Line: Chargers +3



Another case where we have a team that has little to play for. San Diego has had many weapons banged up throughout the year so any additional rest here is more than welcomed. Take the Chiefs.



Straight: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs





Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11) at Oakland Raiders (5-10)

Line: Raiders +1.5



You never know what to expect when the Raiders are playing. I say take the Jaguars as they fight to get back into the playoff picture.



Straight: Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars





Dallas Cowboys (6-9) at New York Giants (5-10)

Line: Cowboys +1



This has to be considered a big letdown for the networks as we have a Primetime game involving a pair of teams out of playoff contention. This should make for a football game where we see these division rivals ?let it all hang out?. I think Bill Parcells still gets up for playing the Giants and Eli Manning has yet to win a game as a starter for New York so I will stay with the trend. Take the Cowboys on the road.



Straight: Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL Analysis (V. Iyer)
Who would have thought, with all the parity in the NFL, that so many teams would have had playoff positioning wrapped up before kickoff this Sunday? There still is parity -- it's just on two different levels: elite contenders and probable pretenders.

Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis and San Diego are locked in 1-to-4 in the AFC. Philadelphia, Atlanta and Green Bay are 1-2-3 in the NFC.

The Eagles and Falcons already got it started last week in resting key players, pretty much allowing the underachieving Rams and Saints much easier paths to victory. You can bet the Panthers, who lost key games to the full-strength Eagles and Falcons in previous weeks, weren't too thrilled by the good fortunes of their hottest wild-card competition.



The Broncos (hosting the Colts), the Bills (hosting the Steelers) and the Seahawks (hosting the Falcons) all are set to become beneficiaries of teams "with nothing to play for" this week.

If I were a coach, I would do the same; but I am a fan, so I want to see competitive NFL football for every week of the regular season. But if it means sacrificing one week to make sure all the league's best teams are at their healthiest and most competitive for what should be a very exciting postseason, I don't mind it. I'll just hope that some of the weekend's college bowls go into quadruple overtime.

GAME OF THE WEEK

New York Jets at St. Louis. Why this game? This is only one of two games on the week's slate that have do-or-die playoff implications for both teams involved. And the result of this game will greatly affect the first-round matchups in both conferences.

The Rams could actually host a 4-5 wild-card game against Seattle -- if they win and the Falcons win at Seattle. They also could sneak in as the sixth seed and travel to Green Bay, where they were throttled on a Monday night.

The Jets are trying to prevent a major collapse. If they win, they will travel to San Diego, where they already have won this season. If they lose, they had better hope for great performances from Pittsburgh and Indy's second-stringers.

The Rams shocked the world last week by running 10 straight times on their opening touchdown drive. But with Steven Jackson banged up and Marshall Faulk slowing down, odds are they will go more to the air this week with Marc Bulger looking often for Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce against a burnable New York secondary.

Like Bulger, Chad Pennington wears No. 10 and went to college in West Virginia, but the Jets' QB relies more on play-action passing for his success. That means the Jets will look first to pound Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan between the tackles against St. Louis' sieve-like front seven, with an eye on getting the elusive Santana Moss downfield for big plays later.

Defense will be the difference in the second half. The Jets (+17) usually win the turnover battle and tighten their grip on opponents as games progress, while the Rams give it away often (-21) and tend to wear down over four quarters. Jets 24, Rams 23.

THAT OTHER GAME OF THE WEEK

New Orleans at Carolina. If the Rams lose, the Vikings would snag one of the final two NFC playoff berths, which would make this game "the final NFC qualifier." And even though these teams have identical records, this one is a no-brainer for me.

The Panthers have the better, more proven coach in John Fox. No quarterback is riding a hotter streak than Jake Delhomme. Nick Goings and Muhsin Muhammad keep having big games. The teamwork that Carolina has shown in rebounding from a 1-7 start has been remarkable, and the team certainly has great experience from last year's Super Bowl run.

I'll give credit to the Saints for their late surge, but it will be a stark contrast from playing a resting Falcons team one week and a hungry, fiery Panthers team the next week. I simply have more trust in Fox and Delhomme to win a big game over Jim Haslett and Aaron Brooks. Panthers 34, Saints 24.

REMATCH OF THE WEEK

Green Bay at Chicago. The Packers looked bad in a loss to the Bears at Lambeau Field in Week 2. Now the big question for the Pack is, can they live with resting their regulars for the playoffs at the cost of being swept by their archrivals?

They won't need to answer that, because with their offensive line play, their backups can control the point of attack and dominate time of possession against the Bears, who are without middle linebacker Brian Urlacher. It's not like the Bears' already backup-heavy offense does too much with its possessions, anyway. Packers 24, Bears 21.

SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

Kansas City at San Diego. Of all the teams with playoff positions clinched, the Chargers might go with their starters a little more. Whether it's the motivation of Marty Schottenheimer showing that his current young offense is better than that of his old team's or keeping that current young offense clicking going into the postseason, Drew Brees and LaDainian Tomlinson should see enough action to stay in a groove.

If LT sits early, the Chargers still have a very capable backup in big Jesse Chatman running behind their underrated young line. They also have some speedy wide receivers, including untapped talent Kassim Osgood.

The Bolts' defense will be eager to close out this game, something it couldn't do against Indy's offense last week. Former Chief Donnie Edwards, the Chargers' high-impact inside linebacker, will help them enter the playoffs on a high with a big play late. Chargers 31, Chiefs 27.