Week 17

[hogman14]

Well folks, for better or for worse, we all trudged through 16 weeks of trying to beat the man. Don't post on here a ton, but appreciate everyone's hard work throughout the year. Great forum to share some opinions, and have some fun. I myself had a good run for a while, followed by some pretty bad weeks.

Overall thoughts:
I feel as if it was a little more predictable this year as opposed to the past few. I'm generally a dog player and I have been taking a bath the past few years. Seems to have corrected itself a little bit.
Teams that kind of folded up the tent still have some fight in them (ie. Cincy outright over SD).

The last week, thanks to some scheduling changes which all divisional games for a change, is traditionally a difficult week to cap. A couple lines have caught my eye though...

Cleveland +5.5
Seattle +2.5
Washington +4

Will be back with writeups, of course.

 

[hogman14]

Washington +4

Washington +4

Tough spot, and tough to back a Redskins team that has been a grease fire all year. Only big win at home was over GB. Played Indy tough the following week. Won in Philly, won in Chicago. On the other side, embarrassed at home in Philly on MNF. After two straight road games, and what was a pretty big win at Jacksonville (although we'll see the Jags' true colors this week, in my opinion), they return home to avenge a 31-7 drubbing at the hands of their division Rival.

The Skins have only scored 30 once this year, but rank 10th in overall pass offense. Rushing is 3rd to last at 29th in the league. This, coupled with the worst defense yardage wise on paper leaves them at 6-9.

Enter the Giants, who are losers of 2 straight, and were just lit up by the Packers, following a tough home loss against the Eagles. Call them a paper tiger, call them what you will, but the team has put up impressive numbers offensively, 3rd total yards, 9th in passing and 5th on the ground. On the other side of the football, they are 6th in yards allowed.

THE BIG QUESTIONS:

Is this line an overreaction to the Washington win at Jacksonville, and the perceived unraveling of the Giants? Will the Giants just come in and steamroll the Skins, and we'll look back as this being one of the easier bets of the year backing NY? I tend to disagree. I think this is in a smaller scale a line that is trying to entice backers of Big Blue. In week 11, the Colts lost to the Patriots. Week 12, they were 2 point favs at home vs. the Chargers, and beat 36-14. The following week, they were a 5.5 point home choice, and lost outright to the Cowboys. Backers of the Ponies those weeks, and even the following week after at Tennessee lost a lot of money with the mindset that "The Colts CAN'T lose 2, 3, games in a row." I see this as a similar situation.

We know Washington's secondary is lousy. Will Carriker be able to come outside Chris Snee and bring pressure from the right side?

Kevin Boss on Rocky McIntosh may be a crucial matchup in the game as well.

Will Rex be able to manage the game enough and not turn the ball?

Can Santana Moss make a few big plays? If the Redskins can get a lead, the Giants may roll over...

All in all, I like the points, I like the home dog, and I think the revenge factor is key in this division matchup. The Skins would like nothing better to keep the Giants out of the playoffs this year. Granted they'd need a lot of help, but the Gmen must win this game. And, they've kind of proven this year to be pretty weak against playoff opponents. 1 win over the Bears, and a win at Seattle who may make the playoffs, ditto for Jacksonville, but they're also on the outside looking in.

Washington +4 gets the call.

Good luck!

 

[hogman14]

Seattle +2.5

Seattle +2.5

Definitely a tough game for the Seahags. Blown out at home vs. KC, ATL, NYG. Wins at Chicago, and beating SD week 3 are the only nice notches for them in their belt this year. All this, and they're only grabbing 2.5 at home.

Enter the Rams, who are much improved, but 2-5 on the road. No real impressive wins for them this year, although they did also beat the Chargers.

Both teams statistically are not very good. Rams are decent against rush, and Long has really helped out.

What we need to figure out is...

Will Whitehurst be able to lead Sea. to victory?

Can Marshawn Lynch break the big play?

I think Seattle's defense is the key to this game. If they can come to play, they may force Bradford to make some mistakes. That's not to say that Charlie Whitehurst is John Elway either.

I hate betting on a Pete Carroll coached team. But I'm going with my gut here and taking the Seahawks. Home field is going to be huge in this case, and I think Sea. wins outright.

Good luck.

 

[hogman14]

Cleveland +5.5

Cleveland +5.5

This line opened at 6, and was bet to 5.5

The skinny:

Pitt must win. They will clinch the AFC North, and a first round bye by doing so.

I was on the Brownies last week, and they came up short. I still think they have some fight to them. Only 7th this year in points allowed, and Mangini won't let these guys quit. Especially with a division rival coming to town.

Pitt is coming off extra rest after hammering Carolina. They have traveled well, beating Baltimore, and TB on the road. Their defense, statistically is one of the best in the league.

Pittsburgh has been very successful in "doing what they do." This has one a lot of games for them. They run the ball well, they are tough and physical on defense, and they break off some big plays. However, they can be outschemed/outcoached sometimes. Teams with good defensive minds tend to get the best of the Steelers. (See BB, and RR) I'm not calling Mangini Vince Lombardi, but he's a pretty sharp planner, and I think he'll be ready for the matchup this time.

Browns +5.5, and gimme some ML. I think they pull the upset! :box2:

Good luck folks, and Happy New Year to everyone.