Week 2 Fri/Sat

[Toledo Prophet]

YTD: 6-2.

Got the week off with a nice win on Vandy. Extra Kudos to whomever pulled the ML trigger......Double Two, I am looking at you my man!! :00hour

I'll post my weekend plays and write ups in this thread. And, I like the game tonight, so here goes:

Navy +7 over Ball State. See a lot of Cardinal love, and whats not to love. They have what seems to be a high octane offense and should be able to exploit Navy's weak pass defense all night long. But, this line surprises me as I really dont think Ball St is so obviously even the better team in this game.

During this recent Renaissance, Navy has been thumping MAC teams whenever they've played, scoring more than 31 points in all six games. Not to mention similar high scores in three games against Temple as the Owls transistioned into the league. Ball State did win at Navy 34-31 last year, but my whole point with this line of agrument is that the Middies aren't really overmatched from a talent standpoint in this one.

While their D may not do much to slow down BSU's Nate Davis, their best D will be their O. Despite a new coach, I see their triple option stull being more than effective tonight. Navy always losses players and replacing departed starters, but their style of O keeps churning out yards and wins. They rolled over 500 yards of rushing offense out of Ball State last year. Do we really think that cant roll up and down the field again against the Cardinals? They will hang point for point with the Cards.

Dont we talk a lot on this board about how underdogs who outrush their opponent cover the spread at a high rate? Its hard to ID those spots ahead of time, but I think we have one here.

Navy is 14-4 ATS as a road dog the last six years with covers the last two seasons at Stanford, UConn, ND, Pitt and AF. They won all those five outright. The only time Navy has reall been smoked in recent years has been when playing an upper level team from a BCS league. I dont put BSU on that level. Navy has been a team I've enjoyed playing the last several seasons and I dont fear the coaching change. I'm willing to spend a unit in their first lined game--in a role they usually excell in--on that confidence.

Good luck!! :weed:

 

[Cie]

Nice info. I looked very little at this matchup, and will likely tail you here. GL this week:weed:

 

[Cie]

I missed kickoff, so you will likely cash. GL:weed:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Thanks Cie. Luckily you missed the kick. Navy left a lot of points on the field. Feel sorry for the guys that took the over. They had no business losing. I'll still take Navy in that role as the season goes on.

On to today:

Georgia Tech +7 (-120 w/ a 1/2 pt buy) over BC. I took a chance on Paul Johnson's old team last night. Today, I'll take a unit flier on his new team. Lets hope it works out better. What I saw last night was a Navy team that missed its meastro play caller in key situations. Everyone talks about Johnson's system, but lets not forget how important his play calling is. I think he'll have the BC coaches on their heels all day. The Eagles are not only breaking in a new QB but they're replacing a 'face of the program' type of figure. You have to doubt BC will be able to respond consistenly enough to the GT attack to score enough to win, let alone cover. The Techsters are 9-3-1 ATS as a road dog and Johnson was on a 14-4 ATS stretch as a road dog when he left Navy. I said in my post above that I have been a happy Navy backer in the PJ era. Obviously, a storyline for me personally this year will be how will PJ do at GT and how will Navy respond without him. I really feel, despite last night, Navy will remain a money maker, but I feel strongly that GT will improve immediately with PJ and finally do something more than a boring 7 wins year in, year out. I just have a lot of faith in him and love his team getting a healthy TD head start against a program thats also in a state of transition.

UB +14 over Pitt. Several years back I learned of various systems to play on or against when you have a team playing a game after losing outright as a double digit favorite. The basic premise: Take that team in their next game if its on the road and fade that team in their nexrt game if its at home. Of course, thats just the basic meme, I would not follow just that. Here's this system with a layer peeled back as its relevant to this game: If a team off an outright loss as a double digit favorite is playing in its next game as a home favorite of -14 or less and not playing with revenge they are just 25-48 ATS since 1980. Thats a nice fade number and a situation we find Pitt in later today.

A couple things: That record is not up to date. It only goes through 2004. I cant find my notebook that has some of these updated through the start of the year. But, these teams only went 3-5 ATS last season, so the above mark did improve and you made money last year by playing against teams in this role. Also, the parameters are easy to explain. The cap at -14 keeps you away from playing against a power team or a mismatch or both. And, the revenge thing is because teams in this spot are dizzy with defeat, but coaches can get them to respond better and focus if their next foe is someone who tarred them a year ago. At least, thats how I analyze it.

UB will be a player in the MAC this year. I really do feel they could be like KU last year in this league. After winning with them last week vs UTEP, I figured I would lay off them until they got into more even games against league foes. But, they come up today in this 'fade Pitt' scenario. So, the matchup might not look good on paper, but look at this way: I am betting against Wanny. And, if Pitt throws an incomplete pass on its first drive or its defense gives up a nice play early on, expect many boos and a toxic situation for the home team.

There are so many other games I can make a case for. But, I am going to stick with a system thats worked for me and a coach who has worked for me. Its a long season, after all. I'm going to the game in AA, but will back in time to revisit the night games and maybe add a play or two.

Good luck with whatever you play!! :weed: