Week 2 Line Moves that Stink

[WhatsHisNuts]

The following games meet the following criteria:
1. Favorite is getting 70% or more of the money
2. Line is going down (against the money)

Central Mich +1 vs Akron
Ohio U +15.5 @ Rutgers
Wyoming +7.5 vs Boise St
Michigan +6 @ Notre Dame
TCU +1.5 vs Tex Tech
New Mexico +13.5 vs Missouri
Colorado St +2 @ Nevada

All of this info is from SportsBook so I'm only using one source and it's still is early.

Not sure how many of these I will play, but I'll probably take at least 3 of these and see what happens.

Leans:
Michigan
CMU
TCU

EDIT - Nevada and CSU were flipped fav/dog, so I fixed it.
EDIT2 - Changed title to reflect week 3 not week 2.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Thanks for the #'s gmroz... interesting stuff....

I always like looking at this stuff...

 

[soul train]

Akron opened up a 3.5 fav......

Since have dropped to -1 with 70% of the public
on there side


Central Michigan looks like a good play at +1

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

You're welcome Jayhawk.

I think the Michigan and CMU picks are the ones to go with right now. ND is going to get pounded by the public and the fact that the casino is trying to drive more action that way is about as big a green light as I can get. Also, CMU is a scary pick but I'll take the house side and hope for the best.

BTW: I used my NFL brain to title this (week 2) so I'll change that to week 3.

 

[Cie]

CMU is a scary pick but I'll take the house side and hope for the best.

CMU may not be that scary if you consider Akron playing 3rd straight on road and just off of a huge W.

Thanks for posting. GL:weed:

 

[poperebel]

Add this one....

Rutgers to down to 15.5 from -17. 83% of the money is on Rutgers.

 

[Captain Armani]

based on other writeup' as well, having nothing to do with the consensus, im loving the CMU pick.

This should be a weekly thread, lines that stink.

 

[AR182]

The following games meet the following criteria:
1. Favorite is getting 70% or more of the money
2. Line is going down (against the money)

Central Mich +1 vs Akron
Ohio U +15.5 @ Rutgers
Wyoming +7.5 vs Boise St
Michigan +6 @ Notre Dame
TCU +1.5 vs Tex Tech
New Mexico +13.5 vs Missouri
Colorado St +2 @ Nevada

All of this info is from SportsBook so I'm only using one source and it's still is early.

Not sure how many of these I will play, but I'll probably take at least 3 of these and see what happens.

Leans:
Michigan
CMU
TCU

EDIT - Nevada and CSU were flipped fav/dog, so I fixed it.
EDIT2 - Changed title to reflect week 3 not week 2.

the rutgers game really has me stumped....teams have a history of coming in flat after pulling a major upset....i'm debating whether to buy back ohio...

does anybody have the winning % of going against these "line stink moves" ?

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Agree this should be a weekly thread, if you can put in the time.

Nothing more reliable in sports gambling then the house trying to get people to take a certain side.

Will probably play CM too. GL.

 

[stagger lee]

AR

just my 2 cents on Rutgers/Ohio

Watched Rutgers last week (was on Illini) and as game progressed my early thought was public was going to be on Rutgers no matter who they played (also counting in factor of Week 1 win at NC), thus the line would more than likely be inflated vs. Ohio.

Looks like Knights are becoming bit of media darling (following years of past futility ? not counting last year)

When lines opened saw Ohio and almost started drooling, especially since I consider Ohio to be a ball control team that can grind out yards and kill clock.

But as the week has progressed (and reading your post ? thanks for all the info you provide) I am laying off the side, but played the first half under (got it at 24.5 at the Greek Thursday and now see it?s at 24). Hoping that both teams try to establish ground game to run down clock (esp with new rules)

 

[AR182]

stagger lee...

thanks for you commenting on the game. you're probably right that people fell in love with rutgers after seeing them dismantle illinois.

thinking about buying back my bet & trying for a middle.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

CMU may not be that scary if you consider Akron playing 3rd straight on road and just off of a huge W.

Thanks for posting. GL:weed:

Thanks for the info. I will definitely be on this game...just not sure how heavy.

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

Hey gmroz... can you give the %'s on the Toledo/KU game?

I am curious about something... also... can you see if percentages change throughout the week, or do you just get the total percentage?

Thanks man.

 

[vinnie]

sportsbook.com


Kansas 36%
Toledo 64%

 

[Jayhawk_Thor]

sportsbook.com


Kansas 36%
Toledo 64%

I don't get the line movement at all then... Maybe I shouldnt care...

But the line went from 5.5 to 3.5 with 55% of the public on the favorite. Now, just because a higher percentage of the public is on Toledo, the line jumps back up?

What does that even mean? :shrug:

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Hey gmroz... can you give the %'s on the Toledo/KU game?

I am curious about something... also... can you see if percentages change throughout the week, or do you just get the total percentage?

Thanks man.

It ended up with Toledo 65 and KU 35.

You'd have to track the percentage changes yourself if you want that info. It provides current status only. It does show opening line vs current line, and that info is good enough for what I'm up to.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

If anyone cares for the results, these games went 5-2.

 

[The Sponge]

Gmroz i have been around a very long time and unless you know how to read a line u need to be sure these percentages are accurate. These books are not in the business to help us out. The ND game for example was easy to figure but i have saw from time to time percentages way off from what reality was. What i do is check out a site that has no agenda like theone every knows about. then i look at the percentage. You will get a much better reading. Good luck.

 

[pt1gard]

i do about 5xs better in nfl, but one phenomenon I noticed a # years ago was that when a cfb line moved 4 or more pts early in the year it was a great fade (take value pts) ... as the seaosn went along it seemed to go other way or even out ... I have no idea if that was coincidence but I did track it a few years ... in week one this year there was a 4 pt move, i forget the game, Ive been writing too much to follow cfb very closely, but that game bit PUB in ass too

the ND game huge example of pub all over ND yet line still drops a lot ... then they get embarrassed ... games like those you slap your head and say, why didnt i bet the back 40?!!

GM22, keep posting this stuff, I for one have always been intrigued, thanx

all my best
gregg