Week 2 NFL Plays

[Nick Douglas]

Just finished my handicapping for week 2. I will post analysis with these plays on my page in tomorrow's update. As always any comments or questions are appreciated. Good luck.

INDIANAPOLIS -2 1/2 over Miami 2*

JETS -1 over New England 2*

BALTIMORE +3 1/2 over Tampa Bay 2*

Jacksonville +4 over KANSAS CITY 2*

Cincinnati +4 over CLEVELAND 2*

 

[Roger]

niccccee job last week nick!

 

[Nick Douglas]

Thanks, Rog. Noticed you did a fine job in the contest yourself. GL.

 

[Blitz]

Nick, there's a little room left on the New England Bandwagon, hop on fast before it's full... someone once told me to never bet against streaks! :nono: I'm gonna ride the Pats!!!

 

[Billy]

#1....nice work week one...
#2....you don't waste any time, do you....
#3....beantown says your skills are nadda......:Yep:
#4....we affta yo ass..............:toast:

 

[Nick Douglas]

Blitz,

Whoever told you not to bet against streaks must have forgotten to tell me not to play the Panthers last week . In all seriousness, I think the Jets are a pretty special team this season and they should have a big edge with a home game and an extra day to prepare.

Billy,

Thanks for the compliment. I don't worry about beanie too much, I must say. I know people have to be gunning but I like to get my handicapping done early and get my plays set by Tuesday or Wednesday. Helps keep me from being wishy washy later in the week. GL this week.

 

[gardenweasel]

can`t wait

can`t wait

to hear your rationale on tampa-b`more....i am from b`more and i can`t see them beating tampa this week....i know the public will be all over tampa(i got it at 3...i actually doubled my wager on this and philly feeling that the public will drive the line up,and then i will off my excess and try middling it)).... tampa up to -3.5 and philly went from -1.5 to 3 already....but,back to tampa...they follow this game with st louis and could very easily be 0-3 to start the season if they lose here...b`more allowed brad hoover and nick goings to average over 5 yards per carry each....and believe me,carolina used one of the most vanilla game plans i have ever seen....the ravens started one new corner and 2 new safeties(not to mention 2 new lb`s and a new defensive line) and they made a ton of mistakes....many other teams would have rang them up.....forget b`more`s pedestrian offense,their defense is in disarray....i understand the contrarian point of view,but,sometimes you have to step back and take a hard look.....this is a mismatch and the new orleans loss by tampa was just icing on the cake.....ditto washington-philly...everybody pegged arizona in week one...i was looking at philly in week 2....the loss to the titans was also a bonus....philly lost a similar opener last year by 3 to the rams and bounced back to pound seattle in seattle 27-3......the best secondary in football,puts the clamps on the fun and gun,and the best road team in football handles an over-rated skins team(at least they are over-rated this early in the season)....arizona moved the ball pretty well last week...the excellent skins "d" has yet to jell....sorry for being so long winded in your thread...i like these 2 alot(also a dallas lean-the public should bet this through the roof-hope to get 4).....g.l. and enjoy your write-ups.

 

[Neemer]

WOW!!!!!!!.......I'm leaning the complete opposite way! YOU ought to be in REAL good shape next week!

 

[Billy]

Just razzing your ass Nick........I turn 49 tomorrow and since
I can't feel real good about my B-day tomorrow getting chit
faced today..........

 

[JEFF]

I like NYJ and Cincy as well. Good luck Nick and great job last week.

 

[Nick Douglas]

weasel,

This is not a contrarian play. I think Baltimore is in a great spot here. I looked at the gamebook for the BAL/CAR game (I only watched maybe 20 plays of the game live) and Baltimore was able to drive the ball consistently. Carolina did have a nice yards per carry and total rushing yards but as you said, that was against a new defense playing their first game on the road.

This week we have Baltimore at home and with a real life game under their belts. Tampa really got worked by the 3-4 defense last season vs. Pittsburgh. What I like even more is that Redman looked very comfortable to me in the time I saw him. Johnson, on the other hand, looked lost until a nice fourth quarter comeback. Also remember that Billick is a good coach and the type of guy that will have the Ravens in every game this year despite the holes in that team. There is also no way he will allow the number of tough penalties that plagued them last week.

Billy,

Happy birthday. GL next week.

JEFF,

Glad to hear it. I even played Cincy early today at +4 1/2 because I have a feeling that they may be a public play. GL.

Neem,

Dunno what to say other than yet again your post gets a chuckle out of me. And anyway, you should know the best way out of this predictament: TEASERS!!!

 

[gardenweasel]

nick

nick

thanks for the response....but,redman will struggle here vs a veteran defense...that was the first touchdown they scored with redman this year...even though tampa laid an egg,i don`t think tampa and carolina are comparable....with the disappointing loss as motivation and st louis on deck,i think the overwhelming talent and experience gap shows here and tampa comes in focused ..we`ll agree to disagree...best of luck...

 

[Hooks]

T.B. better keep the minds on the Ravens. Coming into this season, I thought Balt. would be a good DOG. especially at home.

 

[Wolftaz]

Love your plays Nick, the only one that scares me is Cincy. I still think Cincy will be a winning team this year, but the San Diego game brings up a lot of questions. What did Lebeau do in training camp with his players? He obviously forgot about conditioning and gave the players too much responsibility by relying on them to be in shape. Poor game plan by Cincy... they could do nothing against the Chargers on offense or defense. What were the coaches doing all preseason, obviously not getting a gameplan ready for the Chargers.......The only bright spot is Dillon's success against the Browns defense over the past few years. I am leaning towards Cincy, but I am wary of a vary angry Browns team who will be out to prove a point in stopping Dillon. But then again, maybe Lebeau will have his players ready to prove last week was a fluke?:shrug:

 

[Nick Douglas]

Wolftaz,

In the early weeks, I still think you have to look at preseason handicapping just as strongly, maybe more strongly than results. The Bengals were dominated but I think they will come out more prepared this week. They definitely have the personnel to beat the Browns and I think they will get the job done. Maybe I will end up looking like a fool, but I strongly believe that you will see the real Bengals this week. GL.

 

[Wolftaz]

Nick,

I really hope that you are right. I will be at the game Sunday, so I will see first-hand. I agree that the Bengals have the personnel, I think that it is a matter of coaches preparation for the game. I believe Lebeau will crackdown this week and hopefully have his boys ready to play. :grins:

 

[icon009]

brother nick


Nice picks last week Now i realized my picks are exactly opposite That's what separates the big boys from the learners that's why i'm a junior member and your a senoir

at least i'm with you on the colts,:toast: other than that good luck in week two. :toast:

 

[Nick Douglas]

icon,

Don't get too down just because another handicapper is on the opposite side that you are. If it put a doubt in your mind just go back and make sure you handicapped the game as well as you could. We all have our moments being right and wrong. GL on the Colts this week, I think it's a goodie.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Just want to give my two cents on Dallas vs. Houston since there is a lot of talk about this game.

First of all, I never bet a team that covered vs. a team that failed to cover in week 2. Just a general principle of teams getting overvalued and undervalued based on a single performance. Also we have the problem of Tennessee coming off a home performance while Dallas played on the road. Now those roles are reversed and in the NFL home field is generally a huge boost.

If you were to have predicted a line for this game before the season, I would think a majority of bettors would have found value in Dallas getting 3 points in their home opener. Now after a single game the entire world is saying that Tennessee on the other side is a virtual lock.

I generally look contrarian if anything when gauging the public, so perhaps I am biased a bit. I am starting to wonder a bit, though, if I didn't miss something in Dallas with what seems like a good home dog this week.

Forgetting all of this and just comparing the teams, the one thing that stands out is Carter. Is he reliable in the least? Certainly he looked terrible last week, but that *is* only one game playing in a hostile environment where he trailed from the time he stepped on the field. When I handicapped this game, I basically tossed Dallas as a possible bet because I don't trust Carter. Generally I think reasoning like that is short sighted but in this case it may very well be justified.

Other than Carter, you could easily argue that Dallas has a good edge. Their defense is very impressive and remember that Philly tore Tennessee a new one in the first half of the week 1 game.

As tempting as it is for me to tack on Dallas as a sixth selection this week, I will pass. For those of you thinking of going with Tennessee, I say be very, very careful. A large percentage of NFL games are decided by 3 points or less and it is awfully hard to cover that on the road at another team's sold out home opener one week after opening your own season at home with a comeback victory. GL.

 

[CrazyHorse]

Baltimore just moved to +4 at canbet