NFL YTD: 5-5, (-0.5 units)
Already in:
Indy -1? & Under 46?: This looks like a good spot for Indy's new defence to gel. Both D's should be much better than last week. Miami won't be giving up "who cares" TD's after building a 35-point lead this week, that's for sure. No way Miami puts up the pts they did last week against that high school team from Detroit. I like betting against teams who are going from one extreme to the other (in this case, Mia going from playing a terrible team @ home to a very good one on the road). Home opener...good time for the Colts to shine.
Atlanta -2?: Michael Vick seriously impressed me last week, and giving less than a FG looks very nice. (BTW this line is still available as of this writing at Oasis). Bears D definitely has some holes in it, esp in the secondary. I'm looking at the Falcons to contend for the division title, and you don't get there by dropping games like this. Another situation where a team (Chi) beats a weak team at (sort-of) home, and then hits the road to play against a better team.
NYG/StL Under 48: (Again, this line is still available at Oasis). I've yet to see the Rams get their O in gear, be it preseason or in Week 1. I'm suspecting there are some deep-rooted problems on this team that are just beginning to become noticeable. In the meantime, the line is still being set as if this was the old Rams. At least, that's my gut feeling. This game will go a long way to proving or disproving that theory. The Giants could cause them some problems. NYG have had 10 days to prepare for this game, and they know if they want to stay in it, they can't get into a shootout. I think NYG has the weapons to keep the Rams O in check. Giants aren't going to put up a ton of points though. Giants could actually give up 30 pts and this game could still go Under. I don't think StL scores 30.
Buffalo +5: Bledsoe, Moulds & Price could rip up this team. Chicago doesn't exactly have an offence that strikes fear in opponents, and they put up 27 against these Vikes last week. Buff's O is better than Chi's and can exploit the weaknesses more effectively I think. Bills coming off a painful OT loss...a scenario I like as a "Bet On" situation.
Waiting/hoping for line moves on:
New Orleans +?: If it hits +3 I am on it. If it doesn't, I will probably go NO +ML instead. Only fear here is a letup by the Saints after a big divisional win last week. Still, I see no other reason why the Pack should be a road favorite here. Saints very underrated at this point and should be a profitable bet for the near future until the lines catch up. Pack overrated too I think.
TB -?: I doubt I will get -3, but it doesn't hurt to hope. Not 100% sure I will take it if I have to give more than 3. Good bounceback spot for Bucs vs a downtrodded Ravens team that are have too many question marks at key positions.
On the fence/considering:
Jax/KC Over 45: I think this line is going to rise this morning, so best to jump on it early or forget it. Not much D from either team here. Still, not 100% sold on it at this point.
NYG +13: For the reasons mentioned in the Under pick above. My concern with this one is how much the Giants will score. It should be enough to cover this very large # though.
Good luck everyone.
Already in:
Indy -1? & Under 46?: This looks like a good spot for Indy's new defence to gel. Both D's should be much better than last week. Miami won't be giving up "who cares" TD's after building a 35-point lead this week, that's for sure. No way Miami puts up the pts they did last week against that high school team from Detroit. I like betting against teams who are going from one extreme to the other (in this case, Mia going from playing a terrible team @ home to a very good one on the road). Home opener...good time for the Colts to shine.
Atlanta -2?: Michael Vick seriously impressed me last week, and giving less than a FG looks very nice. (BTW this line is still available as of this writing at Oasis). Bears D definitely has some holes in it, esp in the secondary. I'm looking at the Falcons to contend for the division title, and you don't get there by dropping games like this. Another situation where a team (Chi) beats a weak team at (sort-of) home, and then hits the road to play against a better team.
NYG/StL Under 48: (Again, this line is still available at Oasis). I've yet to see the Rams get their O in gear, be it preseason or in Week 1. I'm suspecting there are some deep-rooted problems on this team that are just beginning to become noticeable. In the meantime, the line is still being set as if this was the old Rams. At least, that's my gut feeling. This game will go a long way to proving or disproving that theory. The Giants could cause them some problems. NYG have had 10 days to prepare for this game, and they know if they want to stay in it, they can't get into a shootout. I think NYG has the weapons to keep the Rams O in check. Giants aren't going to put up a ton of points though. Giants could actually give up 30 pts and this game could still go Under. I don't think StL scores 30.
Buffalo +5: Bledsoe, Moulds & Price could rip up this team. Chicago doesn't exactly have an offence that strikes fear in opponents, and they put up 27 against these Vikes last week. Buff's O is better than Chi's and can exploit the weaknesses more effectively I think. Bills coming off a painful OT loss...a scenario I like as a "Bet On" situation.
Waiting/hoping for line moves on:
New Orleans +?: If it hits +3 I am on it. If it doesn't, I will probably go NO +ML instead. Only fear here is a letup by the Saints after a big divisional win last week. Still, I see no other reason why the Pack should be a road favorite here. Saints very underrated at this point and should be a profitable bet for the near future until the lines catch up. Pack overrated too I think.
TB -?: I doubt I will get -3, but it doesn't hurt to hope. Not 100% sure I will take it if I have to give more than 3. Good bounceback spot for Bucs vs a downtrodded Ravens team that are have too many question marks at key positions.
On the fence/considering:
Jax/KC Over 45: I think this line is going to rise this morning, so best to jump on it early or forget it. Not much D from either team here. Still, not 100% sold on it at this point.
NYG +13: For the reasons mentioned in the Under pick above. My concern with this one is how much the Giants will score. It should be enough to cover this very large # though.
Good luck everyone.
