Week 2 plays....

[taoist]

I played a couple of Sat. games earlier in the week, but my notes are at home and I'm not, so I'll update this later....

...just a couple of small plays for now.


Played these tonight on the Smurf Turf....

Beavers +7' (4/5 unit) Looks like I was a little late pulling the trigger....
Beavers ML +265 (1/5 unit) :scared

Beavers have a bye week next week and should go all out for the *slight* upset.... I know that Boise is tough on that freaking blue carpet, but this is a TV game and both teams should be fired up to get some national exposure.

I realize that you can usually find *some* statistics to support whatever position you take in a game, but I thought this one was interesting.

Boise St. is 1-10 SU and 2-6-1 ATS vs PAC 10 opponents all-time.

...and if anyone cares about my opinion on the total, I think that the defenses step up tonight and we go under the steep (58') number.

Best of luck out there, fellas. :SIB

 

[treynolds]

I agree, good luck

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on the plays tonight...played it "safe" with the tease, but looking at the beavers as a possible pool play...have to decide soon though...congrats on eclipsing 6k posts....and to answer your question from last week...dont know where Joe De is...hope he shows up soon or we might need Jack to send an email to him...

 

[Cie]

FWIW, I like both. GL this week:weed:

 

[amich1]

Boise St. has a new coach too.

 

[AR182]

good luck taoist..

 

[Irish]

With you on the beavers, GL

Cheers
Irish

 

[Hashish]

Go Beavers and GL all!

 

[taoist]

...should have known better than to play against Boise on that Blue carpet. Oh well....onward to tonight.


Try the doggie again.... Never have like Pitt coach...and wouldn't lay road chalk with him. Cincy is not much better, but as others have pointed out, they do return 10 on Defense and they are at home. I look for a low scoring affair.

Cincy +8 (4/5 unit)
Cincy ML +270 (2/5 unit)

p.s. Does anyone think (like myself) that these clock changes are really causing QB's and coaches problems early this season?

:SIB

 

[Blackman]

Always down with a good Wanny fade, good luck this weekend.

 

[kneifl]

I'll be tailing some of those picks this season Taoist

I'll be tailing some of those picks this season Taoist

Because you're a damn good capper.

kneifl

 

[wareagle]

on cinncy myself tonight Tao!

have a great weekend!

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

good luck today bud

 

[Hashish]

I'm on board with Cincinatti. Not sure how a team who didn't win a road game last year is a 8 point favorite. Pitt also hasn't covered the spread as a road favorite of -7.5 to -14 since 1992. Good luck Taoist!

 

[AM2kidz]

I like the Pick

I like the Pick

I really like the Cincy Pick Taost... I'm leaning towards Texas and LSU, what do you think??
thanks am2kidz

 

[taoist]

...well, not a good way to start off the 2nd weekend. :142smilie


...guess it's a good thing that I play small for the first few weeks. I made a small profit last week and hopefully can manage to dig myself out of this hole and post another profit this weekend. I won't be around for most of the day, so I'll put all of my cards on the table this morning.


Played some of these earlier in the week, so if the line seems off, then you'll have to make your own adjustments. I will say that I have decided once again this week to not buy any of my earlier plays back. I just hope we don't have another Houston debacle. :scared


Here's where my darts hit the paper this morning...and yes, I played WAYYY too many games.

Miami, OH +17'
Vandy +16'
N. Ill -15
Syr +19'
ND -7'
Toledo -10'
Illinois +11
Mizzou -9'
Oregon -3

CAL -8
Indiana -3'

edit: Shit, I left out a couple of plays.... LOL (...like I needed anymore!) I also have a few parlays with the games listed above with some others not listed added in....


To one of my handicapping mentors - Thanks for the conversation this week via e-mail....


Eleven games.... Maybe I can manage 7-4 or better. :shrug:

Best of luck this weekend, fellas. May the football gods smile on your card.

 

[taoist]

...almost forgot, thanks for the well wishes fellas and sorry about that Cincy loss last night. Thought we were looking good until that pick right before halftime.

AM2kidz, I normally don't like to play the "high profile" games for anything more than pizza money, but if you want my humble opinion, gun to my head, I'd take Texas and LSU, both at home...and both with chips on their shoulders. :SIB

 

[thom24ad]

Good luck to taoist...I'm not sure why but I just don't trust ND yet...any thought about that game?...thanks...

 

[taoist]

FWIW - to me it's just what you're thinking that makes this play have some value. What I mean is that ND was a media darling pre-season.... A TD favorite against GT on the road....

...then ND's highly praised offense played poorly last week (on the road), but no one has commented much that Ga. Tech might have a good defense. :shrug:


...now, Penn St. (known for that "tough defense") is coming into South Bend. ND has "dropped" in the polls, which won't sit well with the alumni...and yet, are still about a TD favorite, but this time at home. If this game would have opened at 6' - that would concern me, but seeing it at 7' or 8 makes me think the oddsmaker is baiting the public to take the road doggie. There's only 2 things that scare me.... Midgets and public road dogs.... :scared

Weis should score plenty this week in front of the home crowd.... Penn St. has the receivers to keep up, but I think that ND tries to make a statement this week. I have the game going over with ND pulling away by 13-16. BOL whatever you choose. :SIB

 

[thom24ad]

Midgets and public road dogs.... :scared

:mj07:

thanks taoist, you make a lot great points but I'm just not sold on that Irish defense eventhough they were able to shut down Ball and Johnson last week...and your absolutely right about the public road dog...its a scary thing...I'm still pretty torn between this game which means I should just pass...your opinions and insights are always respected and appreciated thanks for the response...good luck to you...