Week 2 Thursday BIG TREND PLAY

[Mr Rattler]

** This excerpt is taken form my post last year when this trend went 3-1 ATS going against NFL Rookies making their 1st road start. Stats are updated as of today**

The side selection is based on an undeniable NFL trend: ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS ARE TERRIBLE THEIR 1ST NFL ROAD START. Rookie QBs are a combined 4-18 straight up (82% Against) and they are only 8-13 ATS (62% against) since 2007. Since then only RG3, Koepernick, Mark Sanchez and Andy Dalton have been able to win their very 1st NFL road start. R. Wilson, A.Luck, V.Young, Leinart, Edwards, Ryan, Flacco,Stafford, Freeman, Bradford, Clausen, McCoy, Newton, Gabbert and Pounder ALL WENT DOWN IN DEFEAT. That is an incredible trend that really makes sense. It must be an absolute harrowing experience popping your cherry on the road in the NFL. The crowds know your a rook and they let you have it, HARD! Fighting through communication issues with all new teammates, a hostile home crowd screaming for your immediate death and dismemberment along with the technical aspect of running the offense for real for the 1st time are all major challenges for a Rookie QB.

**The Big Underdog Rookie QB**

Rookie QB's are 1-11SU (92% against) when their team is more than a 7point dog!!! Also Rookie QBs are a mere 3-8 ATS (83% against) when getting over a TD against the spread during their first start on the road (73% Against).
The Jets and Gino Smith are getting 11.5

Also, Since Bill Belichick became coach, quarterbacks making their first NFL start against the Patriots are 24-64 SU.

Quite simply.....

PATRIOTS -11.5

7-1 NFL ATS sides last week. One day I will learn to never take another total

 

[pel7]

Sounds pretty solid to me. First half might be a good bet too.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Great stuff - I took Pats for the first quarter and the Jets team total under for the game. The Jets have only scored once in the first quarter in their last five visits to Foxboro, and hopefully their offensive struggles will continue with a rookie at the helm. And although it is a small sample, home favorites that are playing on Thursday coming off a road win cover at a rate of 75%, with an average MOV of over 12 points, holding teams to 12.6 ppg.

Cheers and good luck

 

[Mr Rattler]

Great stuff - I took Pats for the first quarter and the Jets team total under for the game. The Jets have only scored once in the first quarter in their last five visits to Foxboro, and hopefully their offensive struggles will continue with a rookie at the helm. And although it is a small sample, home favorites that are playing on Thursday coming off a road win cover at a rate of 75%, with an average MOV of over 12 points, holding teams to 12.6 ppg.

Cheers and good luck

I like it!

 

[KsYaS]

Great stuff - I took Pats for the first quarter and the Jets team total under for the game. The Jets have only scored once in the first quarter in their last five visits to Foxboro, and hopefully their offensive struggles will continue with a rookie at the helm. And although it is a small sample, home favorites that are playing on Thursday coming off a road win cover at a rate of 75%, with an average MOV of over 12 points, holding teams to 12.6 ppg.

Cheers and good luck

The patriots didnt cover on the road last week

 

[Happy Hippo]

The patriots didnt cover on the road last week

I never said they did.



Get 'em next time, Mr. Rattler.

 

[eeeerock]

Great stuff - I took Pats for the first quarter and the Jets team total under for the game. The Jets have only scored once in the first quarter in their last five visits to Foxboro, and hopefully their offensive struggles will continue with a rookie at the helm. And although it is a small sample, home favorites that are playing on Thursday coming off a road win cover at a rate of 75%, with an average MOV of over 12 points, holding teams to 12.6 ppg.

Cheers and good luck

Love your informative posts,to bad I missed it,don't look at every single post,need to find a way to have an alert for a post from you!!!!You are a great asset an love your plays whether you give a reason or not,I would follow you blindly