2-1
Pittsburgh -9.5
League: 12-4 ats (Av. Win 018.0) 7+ fav, off a 21+ ats win as away fav, with 34+ minutes Time Of Possession. [Pits] (Team av?s 32.6 ppg)
8-1 (Av. Win 23.3!!) if opp was last a ?dog. (Team av?s 35.7 ppg)
League: 2-9-1 (Av. Loss 18.3?the push was @ -17!) away 7+ dog, off a 1-3 ats win but SU loss, if opp last won ats as away fav. [Buff] (Team av?s 9.3 ppg)
Buffalo were extremely lucky to even be close to Denver this week. 13-23 FD?s. 72-299 passing yards! 112-171 rushing yards?7 of their points came from a punt return, and Denver missed 2 FG?s.
Losman threw for <5 y/pass (and a pick) against what looks to be a weakened Denver D, so not sure how they?ll get anything going at all here.
Sure, the Steelers got a fair bit of help from an inept Browns?, but they controlled the game, gaining nearly 5 y/rush and had the ball for 12+ more minutes.
Steelers are 7-0 SU as home 7+ favs since 2005, with an av. win of 18.6 ppg.
Houston +6.5 (2.02)
League: 12-4 (13-3 this no?av. WIN 3.6! (9-7 SU!)) away 3+ dog, off a 14+ ats win as home fav of 3 or more, if opp won ats as any dog. [Houst]
11-1 (12-0 this no?av. WIN 8.5!! (9-3 SU)) if they had 30+ mins TOP last game.
League: 2-7-2 (0-11 this no!...av. LOSS 2.3 (6-5 SU)) any fav, off a 14+ ats win away with the line -3 to +3, with 34+ mins TOP if opp last won ats as a fav. [Caro]
Just a simple case of one team being over-rated, and one not getting the credit they deserve.
Houston were solid if not spectacular this week. KC offense was never going to do much, but I think their D is under-rated, so to rack up over 300 yards was a good effort, imo.
Are the Panthers a better team than Houston? Likely yes, but will a team who is just 6-12 at home since 2004 as 3+ favs (av. just 19.3 ppg) win by 6 or more?
I don?t think they will. (Besides, always handy for a 50/50 'capper like myself to get better than evens
)
TB v. NO under 42
League: 1-9-1 under (push @ 34?av. total 39.2?av. score 30.8) home dog, off a 7+ ats loss as a 3+ dog, if opp also is off a 7+ ats loss as a dog. [TB]
(SF 9-3 Min last season @ 42.5!)
League: 2-9 under av. total 39?av. score 31.2) away with the line b/w -3 and +3, off a 14+ ats loss as away dog, if opp is off a 7+ ats loss. [NO]
Amazingly there is only 1 common game in that lot, so a combined 3-17-1 under situation.
A hell of a lot of teams this season will get burnt by Indi?impossible to see Tampa going on a similar rampage!! Esp. with Williams out.
They had just 13 FD?s and 2 FG?s this week at Seattle, now face a NO D with a whole lot to prove!
NO didn?t look great offensively either with their running game shut down completely, they struggled to move the ball and their offense failed to get a TD.
TB should be solid enough defensively to keep them in check again, and anything over 41 looks a reasonable under total to me.
Miami v. Dallas over 39.5
League: 21-8-1 over (Av. total 42.1?av. score 48.3) away 3+ fav off a 10+ SU (and ats) win as home 3+ fav, with <28 mins TOP. [Dal]
9-2 over if last game went over by more than 10.
League: 9-2-1 over (Av. total 39.6?av. score 45.5) home 3+ dog, off any OT game as away -3 to +3. [Mia] (The push was last year, Tenn 24-17 Jax)
I think the first stat is the most telling?Dallas knocked up 45 points in less than 28 minutes with the ball!!
Nearly 5 y/rush?Romo 4 TD?s at over 14 y/pass?let?s be fair, Dallas could get 40 on their own again. Miami allowed Washington 400 yards of offense with Campbell at QB, inc. nearly 5 y/rush and over 10 y/pass, so there?s every chance Dallas score big.
Always tough to take road favs in the NFL?esp. to a team who allowed over 400 yards and 35 points themselves, so I think the total is the better option here.
Cinci @ Cleveland over 41
League: 18-5 over (21-2 over this no..av. total 44.5...av. score 51.0) away 3+ fav, total 40.5+, off a 7+ SU (and ats) winas home fav, if TOP <28 mins. [Cinci]
2-0 last season...Phil 24-27 NO @ 46.5, Chic 42-27 SL @ 41)
and...
...8-2 over (9-1 over this no....av. total 43.2...av. score 52.7) regardless of TOP, if they were a 3 point or less fav, and opp is off a 14+ ats loss
(1-0 last season...Indi 24-27 Tex @ 47)
Again, somewhat amazingly, there's only 1 common game there, so a combined 25-7 over that's 29-3 @ this particular total.
There's not much doubt about Cinci's ability to score, but they did allow over 300 yards to a suspect Baltimore, and were a "lucky" play away from giving up 27 points.
Anderson at least got the ball downfield (and on the scoreboard!) last week...and let's be honest, who won't be surprised if we see Quinn get a run sometime in the second half.
I guess the real danger is another 30-0 blow-out like last year, but history suggests that the Brownies might surprise with some points here...
...and if not, they should only need about 10 anyway!
Good Luck all
Pittsburgh -9.5
League: 12-4 ats (Av. Win 018.0) 7+ fav, off a 21+ ats win as away fav, with 34+ minutes Time Of Possession. [Pits] (Team av?s 32.6 ppg)
8-1 (Av. Win 23.3!!) if opp was last a ?dog. (Team av?s 35.7 ppg)
League: 2-9-1 (Av. Loss 18.3?the push was @ -17!) away 7+ dog, off a 1-3 ats win but SU loss, if opp last won ats as away fav. [Buff] (Team av?s 9.3 ppg)
Buffalo were extremely lucky to even be close to Denver this week. 13-23 FD?s. 72-299 passing yards! 112-171 rushing yards?7 of their points came from a punt return, and Denver missed 2 FG?s.
Losman threw for <5 y/pass (and a pick) against what looks to be a weakened Denver D, so not sure how they?ll get anything going at all here.
Sure, the Steelers got a fair bit of help from an inept Browns?, but they controlled the game, gaining nearly 5 y/rush and had the ball for 12+ more minutes.
Steelers are 7-0 SU as home 7+ favs since 2005, with an av. win of 18.6 ppg.
Houston +6.5 (2.02)
League: 12-4 (13-3 this no?av. WIN 3.6! (9-7 SU!)) away 3+ dog, off a 14+ ats win as home fav of 3 or more, if opp won ats as any dog. [Houst]
11-1 (12-0 this no?av. WIN 8.5!! (9-3 SU)) if they had 30+ mins TOP last game.
League: 2-7-2 (0-11 this no!...av. LOSS 2.3 (6-5 SU)) any fav, off a 14+ ats win away with the line -3 to +3, with 34+ mins TOP if opp last won ats as a fav. [Caro]
Just a simple case of one team being over-rated, and one not getting the credit they deserve.
Houston were solid if not spectacular this week. KC offense was never going to do much, but I think their D is under-rated, so to rack up over 300 yards was a good effort, imo.
Are the Panthers a better team than Houston? Likely yes, but will a team who is just 6-12 at home since 2004 as 3+ favs (av. just 19.3 ppg) win by 6 or more?
I don?t think they will. (Besides, always handy for a 50/50 'capper like myself to get better than evens
)TB v. NO under 42
League: 1-9-1 under (push @ 34?av. total 39.2?av. score 30.8) home dog, off a 7+ ats loss as a 3+ dog, if opp also is off a 7+ ats loss as a dog. [TB]
(SF 9-3 Min last season @ 42.5!)
League: 2-9 under av. total 39?av. score 31.2) away with the line b/w -3 and +3, off a 14+ ats loss as away dog, if opp is off a 7+ ats loss. [NO]
Amazingly there is only 1 common game in that lot, so a combined 3-17-1 under situation.
A hell of a lot of teams this season will get burnt by Indi?impossible to see Tampa going on a similar rampage!! Esp. with Williams out.
They had just 13 FD?s and 2 FG?s this week at Seattle, now face a NO D with a whole lot to prove!
NO didn?t look great offensively either with their running game shut down completely, they struggled to move the ball and their offense failed to get a TD.
TB should be solid enough defensively to keep them in check again, and anything over 41 looks a reasonable under total to me.
Miami v. Dallas over 39.5
League: 21-8-1 over (Av. total 42.1?av. score 48.3) away 3+ fav off a 10+ SU (and ats) win as home 3+ fav, with <28 mins TOP. [Dal]
9-2 over if last game went over by more than 10.
League: 9-2-1 over (Av. total 39.6?av. score 45.5) home 3+ dog, off any OT game as away -3 to +3. [Mia] (The push was last year, Tenn 24-17 Jax)
I think the first stat is the most telling?Dallas knocked up 45 points in less than 28 minutes with the ball!!
Nearly 5 y/rush?Romo 4 TD?s at over 14 y/pass?let?s be fair, Dallas could get 40 on their own again. Miami allowed Washington 400 yards of offense with Campbell at QB, inc. nearly 5 y/rush and over 10 y/pass, so there?s every chance Dallas score big.
Always tough to take road favs in the NFL?esp. to a team who allowed over 400 yards and 35 points themselves, so I think the total is the better option here.
Cinci @ Cleveland over 41
League: 18-5 over (21-2 over this no..av. total 44.5...av. score 51.0) away 3+ fav, total 40.5+, off a 7+ SU (and ats) winas home fav, if TOP <28 mins. [Cinci]
2-0 last season...Phil 24-27 NO @ 46.5, Chic 42-27 SL @ 41)
and...
...8-2 over (9-1 over this no....av. total 43.2...av. score 52.7) regardless of TOP, if they were a 3 point or less fav, and opp is off a 14+ ats loss
(1-0 last season...Indi 24-27 Tex @ 47)
Again, somewhat amazingly, there's only 1 common game there, so a combined 25-7 over that's 29-3 @ this particular total.
There's not much doubt about Cinci's ability to score, but they did allow over 300 yards to a suspect Baltimore, and were a "lucky" play away from giving up 27 points.
Anderson at least got the ball downfield (and on the scoreboard!) last week...and let's be honest, who won't be surprised if we see Quinn get a run sometime in the second half.
I guess the real danger is another 30-0 blow-out like last year, but history suggests that the Brownies might surprise with some points here...
...and if not, they should only need about 10 anyway!
Good Luck all
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