Week 3 Card (Sept 11th-13th)

Irish

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Saw these and grabbed them early

Kansas (+3.5) over South Florida
South Florida showed a lot of weakness last week against central Florida. The most obvious one was not taking advantage of mistakes. The bulls had over 500 yards of offense, CF gave them over 170 yards in penalties and this game still went into OT. Selvie is a great defender but know that he is the focus of the line he is seeing a lot of double teams and against CF he did not record one sack. Also the offense has shown that it is all us to Grothe to make it happen on important downs of they are in trouble. Grothes ability to scramble and make things happen has allowed the Bulls to recover in bad situations. It was all up to Grothe because Mike Ford was out last weekend and his bad ankle might not be up to the challenge this weekend. The SF defense has shown they are a good unit but how will they handle a team that has won their first two games by over 30 points. SF have been giant killers at home over the past few seasons but Kansas has a very effcient offense and a good enough defense to win this game which I think they will. The question for Kanssas is in the running game and in this the third game the line needs to play better to open up holes. With such a strong passing game their is not reason the O-line cannot get off the ball and open some lanes for Crawford or Sharp. This will be a good game but in the end I think Kansas has the passing attack to exploit a secondary that was hit hard by the draft and graduation. The over aggressive defensive line for SF will try everything to get to Reesing and the screen should be a great play to keep them off balance. With the SF special teams being unreliable in field goals and the poor kick coverage the jayhawks might be able to make something happen in that department. I think Kansas has an underratted defense, after all they have to be pretty good because they practice against that unit everyday. Still they need to get to Grothe, use a spy and LB gap blitzing to keep him contained. Force him to pass and he will make mistakes. Then the offense can take advantage and get ahead, by getting ahead the SF offense will lose the ability to run the ball and grothe running for his life will struggle to be accurate.

GT (+7) over Virginia Tech
Seriously, a TD? I do not care if this is in blacksburg. It was 3-0 to FURMAN at half. VT has zero going in the department of offense. They have holes in the defense against the run and GT's triple option should be a serious problem. I mean it could not get uglier for GT against BC yet they were able to make it happen when they needed a play. Thee reason the yellowjackets were in thae game was because of the defense. That is very good news for GT backers considering Glennon cannot move in the pocket and when rushed he freezes. Sean Glennon completed 54% of his passes and has 3 picks verse 1 TD, yet Beamer has stuck by him. My WORRY.... the second half of VT verse furman. Taylor took 17 snaps to Glennons 8, that is not what the "splitting snaps" would have dictated. Does this mean Glennon will be pulled early for the more effective Taylor, which could be a bad thing for GT backers. Taylor rushed for a team-high 112 yards, and the team scored two of its three touchdowns. I like the GT speed to be able to handle Taylor a little better than Furman but he is a very skilled players and could make a big impact. What I LIKE... against Furman the hokies ATTEMPTED THIRTEEN PASSES and Glennon threw a pick. So GT has to know VT is not going to come out slinging the ball threw the air. They lost their top three recievers from last year and the best WR option for VT is a converted qb. So GT has to play run and scramble all afternoon. Using that strong defensive front and get to the QB or running back in the backfield. GT cannot allow VT to run the ball and the hockies will have a very tough time scoring points. The have an offensive co that is very run oriented and with his play calling and the lack of a passing attack I see no reason for GT not to know what the hokies will try to do. The yellowjacks can score, the VT defense is extremely aggressive and the triple option will eat that up and then the hokies will struggle on offense. All of those facts make it very easy for me to grab GT with a TD lead.

Cheers
Irish
 

Godzilla 1

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Irish...

I love reading your writeups... I love wasting my money on these dam +12 Games :0corn

Any 4 of these stand out?

Sorry..
 
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Irish

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Godzilla 1... not sure what your post means, but if you have any questions please let me know. I do not have problems with someones opinion even if it is different than mine. If it is in regard to a loss you had tailing one of my posts, all I can say is if I post it I play it. So I am just as pissed at the outcome.

Mizzou (-26.5) over Nevada
The wolfpack just lost by 16 at home against Texas Tech. Tech's defense limited Nevada to four field goals until the 4th quarter. This Tech defense is not nearly as strong as the Mizzou defense and Nevada should struggle to move the ball in this game. The tigers need to key on one guy and that is the Nevada QB. Kaepernick completed 24-of-35 passes for 264 yards and ran for another 92 yards on 13 carries. He does have a tendency to get tunnel vision but his ability to move with the ball forces routes to be hard to cover. Mizzou should get pressure with the front 4 and the LBs need to stay in contain. The safeties can read and react to Kaepernicks eyes and make plays on the ball. Harrel was off in every sense of the word. He completed 19 passes and had 2 picks. Even though he completed 19 the Texas Tech qb accumulated 297 yards. That makes me think Daniels should be throwing for huge gains and moving the chains at will. After all Dainels threw for 323 in a win against Ill and until late bombs from Juice williams that game was way out of reach. Nevada features the nation's fifth-best rushing offense at 325.0 yards per game BUT they lost Lippincott and that is a big blow for the Nevada offense. He was a good weapon on 3rd down and his lost showed a problem in the redzone and short yardage considering they went 3-for-16 on third downs. This is where the tigers can get an advantage, they can limit what nevada does in the running game the lineman can rush with no abandoned, pin their ears back. Mizzou has too many weapons at home and should out run this team on offense. It is a lot of chalk but the tigers can cover and they have nothing on deck to take their focus. Being overly confident might be a problem but they have a coaching staff that wants to score on every posession and it is possible on saturday.

Cheers
Irish
 

Blackman

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Best of luck this week and thanks for the info. Looking into Kansas and GT pretty deeply for many of the reasons you cited.

Appreciate the writeups.
 

Irish

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Cal (-14.5) over Maryland
Will Cal be looking two week ahead to Ariz St when they travel to Bryd stadium. In week one the spartans showed a nice game plan to win the game. The ability to score and score counter punches when ever they have the oppertunity. Winning 42-3 against Wash state the Bears were still looking for blood and finally the intensity was just tapped out and it was not effective as it could be. The bears do it with a lot of balence and a good o-line. The offensive line has let Best rush for 155.5 yards per game and average 8.18 per carry. While Best and the other runningbacks have take the pressure off the QB Riley, so far he is 23 of 38 for 253 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Not great but with that running game he does not have to beat you through the air. The Bears will need to show up on defense, they give up 284.5 yards per game. But the terps only average 14 points per contest. But seriously... struggling with Deleware and lossing to MTS. Turner and Steffy have throw 5 picks and only 1 TD. The unability of maryland to be effective on offense might make it hard for them to keep up with Cal. If Cal gets ahead, how can the Terps air it out effectivly enough to stay on pace. Maryland's offense is averaging 377 yards per game but they cannot score. Cal will be its own enemy and even if they come out less than inspired they still should score and I am not sure I can say the same for the terps. The terps are not used to this type of play, they have no energy and feel like all plays are run poorly, no confidence and playing a team that is hot should be too much. The bears should get ahead and not look back, they are aggressive and will want to burry this team. Once ahead the lack of confidence should cause the terps to fold. Cal needs only one thing, ball posession. The bears keep the ball they will get into the endzone, if the terps are not in the game... they won't try to get in it.

Cheers
Irish
 

Godzilla 1

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Irish...Sorry about posting that very long post. I deleted the main post Info.. i read you each week and i love what you have to offer....

I also love to play these +12 pts 4 team teasers.. Grant it you need all 4 to win...I just can't pass up the 12 pts. i figure you with you expertise you would be able to wonderfull with these.

All I wanted to know was if you had 12pts and the spread to work with what 4 games this week would you go with.

Thanks.. Godzilla :SIB
 

Shifty Mac

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Irish, been looking and following some of your posts for years, you know that, but i gotta disagree with you on that kansas game..any time its a thursday night primetime game and the "worser" ranked team is favored, I almost always take it, also a reverse line movement working for south florida...have found this strategy works very often

love the other games though...:00hour
 

Irish

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Shifty Mac... Don't get me wrong, I am not saying it is foregone. Hell SF beat a very good Auburn team on the road. The bulls have talent but thats why I played it early because I think that hook might come into play. Plus I like the ability of the Kansas offense to exploit the weakness SF has in its secondary. HAHA... worser, what can I say... "I am not a smart man Jen-ney, but I do know what love is.."

Godzilla
If I was looking to spread 12 on top of the lines out currently you want to look at teams that should win but are high favs. You don't want to say hit a close game because it could go one way or the other and there is a blown parlay. If I was looking at 4 teams adding 12 I would think about these teams:
Texas (-24) now (-12)
Mizzou (-26.5) now (-14.5)
Cal (-14.5) now (-2.5)
Penn St (-26.5) now (-14.5)

Because they are all heavy favs with really nothing on the door coming up. Like Ariz St (-22) now (-10) would be nice but they might be looking at georgia.

Just my 2 cents, good luck.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Oregon (-7) over Purdue
Purdue showed last week they can score. Oregon over the past two weekends showed scoring is not a problem. But both the ducks games were at home, will they be as confident on the road. One bad problem for the ducks is the loss of RB johnson to yet another injury. Still they have a nice stable of backs and I really like Blount to shine in that offense. The JUCO transfer has showed he understands the offense and can make huge plays when given the oppertunity. So with a good running attack and very aggressive o-line the ducks have allowed their QB's to grow with each game. Roper is a nice leader and can make plays in the passing game. I think a big mismatch for Purdue is the speed of the orregon WRs compared to the Purdue secondary. With the lack of returning starters in the Purdue defense I do not think against a wide open offens they are ready to play like a well oiled unit. The question is how Painter will do considering the Oregon secondary has not seen a QB with his ability to throw accurately. Still this is a good Duck defense and they have the ability to make big plays in the secondary, it will come down to the ducks front four to get in their and force the tempo to get those missed throws. Bellotti really like this defense compared to years past, they have good LBs and a fast secondary lead by Chung. Chung is the signal caller back their and he is able to read formations and make good calls getting his players in the right place. With the big advantage for the Ducks in speed I just do not think Painter has the weapons to stay point for point with them. The boilermakers lost a lot of talent and just like when Oregon went into Michigan last season the Ducks will look to be efficent and get some east coast media attention. Remember the boilermakers were only wining by 14 at half against a poor team last week. They have a veteran QB and a good coach but I think Oregon has a good coach and far more talent. Just like the biggest question about USC/OSU is can the bucks stay with the USC speed the boilermakers cannot stay with the Ducks.

Cheers
Irish
 

thebsmanofkent

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Irish, you may be right about the Ducks covering.
But it isn't so much Chung on the D, it's there corners; Thurmond and Byrd are studs....very
physical and it opens up their front 7, and DE
Reed is flushing out the pocket and Paysinger can
shoot the gaps. Solid D. The CB's make it all
happen. Don't get me wrong Chung is a player,
in my opinion just not the reason for the D's
play.
 

Irish

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PSU (-26.5) over Cuse
Cuse just got hammered by Akron, PSU is coming off beating Oregon St. If anything, that game showed me the lions defense should be all over the Cuse QB. Cuse lost to Norwester by 20 and Akron by 14. They do not have their best weapon in Williams and they just do not have a bit of confidence in what the coaching staff is trying to do. Akron gave up big yards against the orange which made it easier on firts time starter Dantley. That will not be the case in this game. The Cuse offense has not been good and they have not even faced a good defensse. This will be an extremely tough task for them to score more than 10 points. On the other hand the Cuse defense has not been able to cover run or pass and have not seen a team with the talent size and speed of PSU. Cuse just cannot tackle on defense and PSU should be able to run right over this team. PSU had a 35-7 lead over Org st at half and then eased of the gas a bit and the lions when focused and ready should have every advantage in this contest. Temple on the doorstep means they should not really be looking ahead in this their first away game. Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll but that should not hurt them in this game because it should be all PSU offense against Cuse lack of offense. PSU has the match up on the O-line by a big margin. They should move the Cuse front where ever they want and open a ton of running room of buy time for the passing attack. PSU has questions on defense in depth and playing experience so they will not take any game lightly because they need to get ready for later games. That defensse all trying to earn starting spots or continued playing time should motivate the. The offense will push the orange around. Considering the lions have won by an average of 43 points they should not have a problem with a team that struggles to score against Northwestern and could not prevent a score against Akron.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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UNC (+4) over Rutgers
Again another season where the tarheels need to find their running game. With Nicks and Tate on the outside the heels have a nice group of running backs. Moving stud WR recruit Little to running back needs to pay off considering the knights are weakest up the middle. The Heels gave up 391 yards to NcNeese, with 152 of that coming on the ground. That is not good considering the inside of UNC d-line was considered the best part. The weakness for UNC is in the secondary and Teel needs to exploit it if Rutgers wants the win. The question is can he, he has never been the most accurate passer and with Rice their in the past he has been able to lean heavy on the run game to take the pressure off him. That is no longer the case and the Tarheels secondary needs not to look into the backfield and play the rutgers WR straight up. That will put them in the positon to make plays on poorly thrown balls. The big key will be how the NC LBs cover the underneath routs. Underwood loves the crossing routs to get his speed on a short catch and break it out. Carolina must have the LBs stay deep enough to cover the zones. That means the d-line has to get pressure on their own. This is a big game for both teams, Rutgers must rebound from a hard loss before falling to fall and UNC needs this win to show they are on the right path under Davis. It will be a hard fought game, the coaches know each other and there are some big time players involved. Yates needs to get the ball to Tate and Little needs to make some big runs if Carolina hopes to win this game. I would think Davis wants to see his guys play a lot better than what was showed in week one and I think UNC will show a lot of improvement.

Ohio St (+10.5) over USC
Can OSU match the USC speed. USC had a nice bye week to get ready for this game and had no worries against UVA. I think the bucks took last week off and escaped a gritty Ohio bunch. USC has a very good defense, they have the speed and the talent but I like the Bucks to want this game more since in the big games they have no really posted well. I think Tressell will use Pryor and a different look and Well getting a week off should get him back enough to move the ball. The OSU defense is tough but can they contain the speed of the trojans. That is my biggest worry, because we all know USC is very fast. OSU... get to Sanchez, as much as possible, get him uncomfortable and he will struggle. OSU has the ability to win this game but they cannot let USC set the pace. If SC gets on top early this might be a very bad game for OSU but if the bucks stay in it they have every shot to win. This will be a very good game and I think OSU has something to prove in this big game. Wells, Boekman, Hartline and Robiski all need to step up and make plays. They have a good defense but they cannot just sit back and let the defense play to win. One thing I like is the OSU o-line against the USC defensive front. For as good as USC is at LB and secondary the Bucks might be able to open some holes.


Smaller plays
Georgia (-7.5) over SC - SC defense is tough against the run, Georgia has weakness on o-line but I think the georgia defense will not allow Smeeley or Beecher to go without a few picks. SC does not have reliable WR and the drops and INTs will add up. Georgia can shut down the running game and IMO the bulldogs are deeper and more talented to beat SC matchups.

Wash (+20.5) over Okie
Yes Okie is good but they are on the road. Locker is a good QB and the Cincy game made me think the Okie defense is not as tough as some may think. I believe this is too much chalk on the road for the sooners to spot. Okies offense will score with ease but I like the huskies fight.

Mich (-2) over ND
Anyone that watched the ND SDS game, saw how bad ND really is this season. I know it was their first game but it was SDS with a new QB and young team at south bend. If it was not for the defense ND would have lost that game by a pretty big margin. Mich is not great but I think they are a better team than ND and in this battle of once great teams now rebuilding I will go with the team that showed some life so far this season.

Miss St (+10.5) over Auburn
Look ahead to LSU on the road in the division, I'll take 10. The cow bells will be ringing and the Tigers did not look very good last week. Miss St is not great but they play hard at home and I am just not sold on the tigers as a great team and if they are they will be looking to prove it next week not this week.


Mich St (-17) over Fla Atl
The spartans showed the offense last week and in week one that will be hard for the owls to stop. At home Mich will play tougher on defense and the owls will not be up to the test. Fla Atl won a barn burner with UAB to get a win but they got pounced on the road against Texas. The only thing that bugs me a bit is ND is on deck but I still think the focused on the Irish will be enough to keep Fla Atlantic in this game.

Wisky (-2) over Fresno
Just a play on who I think the better team is, even though fresno is a tough out. Run, run and run more for the big badgers lineman. That will be key, get Hill the ball a lot and then clamp down on the bulldogs running game. Sophmore standout had a great game against rutgers so isolate him and force the QB to beat the secondary.

Might post again tonight before I head out for the weekend tomorrow. Good luck to you all.

Cheers
Irish
 

Corley1011

Hail State!
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Ill will be at the Miss St game with cowbell in hand!!! Yeah we havent played well so far but everyone on campus believes we can win... Hell we did last year! :00hour
 

Irish

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small play
UNC/Rutgers OVER (7.5) 1st quarter
The halftime line is 23.5 and if thats what they think is the area then the first would have to produce a little more.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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UNC (+5) over Rutgers 2nd half
The tarheels need to test the knights deep more and the LB's are doing a good job on the crossing routes, they need to keep it going.

Cheers
Irish
 
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