Week 3/HSF & College Foots

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Hi Gang...

To Date:

College Football : 11-7 (+6.4 units)
High School Degen : 12-9-1 (+/-0 unit)
For Thursday : 9/15

Need to get back on track with my HSF picks, as I took a small hit last week. I simply don't have time to write up every play as there are too many games on Saturday that require attention. I apologize, but trust that I have researched each play.... Here we go!

HSF Degen.....

1. Chatfield, CO - 13 @ Wheat Ridge (1 unit) (-120)..... WIN.... Chatfield rolls 57-7.....*I'm backing the better team here, and think it could get out of hand. Chatfield moved up a division this year to 4A. Their offense has been on fire scoring 103 points in 2 games, going 2-0. RB tandem B. Frenette and D. Keene have accounted for 8 TDs on the ground. They are currently ranked #1 in their division.

Wheat Ridge Farmers has started the year 1-2 getting clobbered 55-21 to in state Pueblo South in week 1. They are pretty young, Some improvement since week 1,however, there is a common opponent. Farmers won against Palmer, CO 36-28, while Chatfield won handily 53-7.

Im on the hotter team and think they will cover the 2 td spread.

2. Columbine, CO/Bear Creek, CO Over 54'.....LOSS.... Final was 38-14.....missed by 3.....Columbine opened the season going to Florida where they lost a close game. This team has become a state power thanks to HC who has been there since 1994 (yes, if your keeping track, he was there for the tragedy that took place in 1999. Since the horrifying day they have managed to go on and Win 5 state championships. They have 100 wins in past 10 seasons. This is actually considered a rebuilding year since the team lost 20 graduating Seniors. This was from a team that was undefeated in 2015, before losing in the semi-finals of state play-offs.

Bear Creek is also rebuilding but haven't won a game thus far. Doesn't appear to be happening tomorrow either as Columbine is a 20 point fav. Still, this team does have some offensive weapons, and 54'is a reasonable number for the over.

3. Liberty / Roosevelt Over 44'.. 1 unit..... *I was surprised this number was so low. Patriots are averaging 42 points per game. Rough Riders average 25. Liberty could go over by themselves, so I will take my chances.

 

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College 9-15

1. Cincinnati +7' over Houston..... 3 units..LOSS . *I like the Bear Cats at home to play the Cougs tough. Houston is no doubt a great team with Heisman hopeful QB Greg Ward Jr all rested as he didn't take a snap against laugher Lamar. Houston is ranked 6th in Nation and no doubt that Coach Herman's will have Cougars attention this week. Last year Houston came away with a 33-30 victory. And there lies the rub.

Cinci Coach Tommy Tuberville has his offense moving the ball well with Soph QB Hayden Moore having the keys. They beat an improved Purdue team lw 38-20. They are also 2-0. Cincinnati D had 5 picks lw. Important, Moore is a dual threat rushing for 71 yards and 2 TDs on the ground, while throwing for 510 yards and 5 scores. The last time Houston came to Cincinnati they lost in 2014.

Houston is 10-5 SU and 13-1 ATS in 15 road games since 2013 season. However, they are only 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS against the Bearcats.

Give me the points and some home cooking. Gl

 

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Sorry I'm running late...

Played:

1. Alcorn St/Arkansas Pine-bluff Under 59....3 units.... (-120)
LOSS... Damn game goes to OT
*Alcorn St is by far the better team here, and won lys match 64-l4. The Braves have a new head coach, who was promoted from Assistant and QB Coach. The Braves are trying to complete a 3rd straight SWAC Championship.

Pine-Bluff Golden Lions finishing last season with 2 wins. This year doesn't appear to be much better. They lost last week against Oklahoma Pan Handle when they had the lead 16-7 in the 4th quarter, but gave up back to back scores to lose.

Both teams want to run the ball. I don't trust Alcorn to want to run up much of a score as they are off a 5 day turn around. Pine-Bluff will attempt to slow the game down. Oline for Alcorn is young, which should help Pine-Bluff get some stops. I played the under as both teams may come in a bit frazzled. Gl

 

[hawkeye]

Chat is better and so is Colu-but Bear Creek might surprise u? gl

 

[Riff-Raff]

Chat is better and so is Colu-but Bear Creek might surprise u? gl

Thanks for the input. I played the over because I couldn't get a read on Bear Creek. Hopefully they'll both score. I'm working on the Long Beach Poly /Mission Viejo game tomorrow.

Note: I was surprised that pine-bluff already scored 14 points... Yikes

 

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Well unfortunately I drank the punch everyone else was drinking with Cincinnati going up in flames. Also, not sure what got into Pine-bluff tonight, but they managed to tie the score up and send the game to OT, which sent my wager to Hell.

Add in :

9-16: 2 HSF Degen plays...

1. Long Beach Poly +17 over Mission Viejo... 1 unit.... (-120) *Another California match-up I wouldn't mind seeing. Poly Jackrabbits come into 2016, from a very pedestrian 4-6 record. The reason was Poly had to forfeit 4 games due to playing a illegal player. Poly is 1-1 on the year, losing to last year's State Champ Narbonne Harbor. Their Coach almost retired after lys mess, however, the team got together and texted and phoned and made video all coercing Coach Antonio Pierce (of the NFL) to come back. The team also put together a summer player only practices and work outs. Poly is lacking a true 5 star athlete on this team, but they do return 10 starters with college scholarship offers. The team runs with 2 of the states best RB tandems, with RB Aaron Shamokin heading to Washington St and Mike Leach. The teams strength is a very fast and athletic Defense that is grounded by outstanding Lbs that are Coached by Pro Football and Penn St standout Lavar Arrington. Special teams are also strong.

Mission Viejo Diablos come in 3-0 and have been body slamming opponents. Last year's team went undefeated on their way to a State Championship in Div 1-AA. Currently, they are on a 31 game winning streak. The QB Matt McDonald is completing 68% of his passes and has 8 TDs through the air thus far. Mission is also very physical on D and has a lock down Corner who is only Soph, Akili Arnold, who plays like a Senior.

These 2 teams haven't played since 2012 in which Poly walked away with a win in the state play-offs. I think Mission probably wins the game, however, the line was 15 early in the week, and is now 17'...i jumped on the 17, as I think Poly Defense will keep it close. Both teams play lights out D so give me the Under 56' for 1 unit too!


2. Archbishop Wood +16'@ St. Joseph Prep.... 1 unit.... (-120)*Another great match up coming from Pennsylvania.

St Joseph Prep was 7-3-1 ly, but are 2-0 this campaign and just upended New Jersey Powerhouse Don Bosco Prep 35-24 last week. They are currently ranked #1 in the state,averaging 42 points a game. Prep is the best 2 time PIAA Class 4A Champions,although they fell ly in the League Championship. The teams offense is motored by Senior RB D'Andre Swift, who had 1,029 yards with 12 TDs. He is the States #1 ranked recruit, who just committed to Georgia. PREP has another 4 Star Receiver, Darryle Simmons.

Archbishop Wood limps in 0-1-1, but should be noted the loss last week was to New Jersey Powerhouse Bergen Catholic, falling 34-16. Wood also features a 4 Star Receiver Mark Weber and their QB is a dual threat. *Note- Weber is actually cousins with Swift from Prep. Archbishop has tremendous history too, and last won state in 2014.

Archbishop Wood is too storied a program not to compete and I think they can hang close and stay within the chalk.

Be back with College plays...

 

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Sometimes it bothers me when I lean to all of the favorites eating chalk but what are you going to do?

1. Utah St - 6 (1st Half).... 3 units. Utah St got straight out bitch-slapped against a pissed off Trojan team. They only managed 13 first downs. Still, RB D. Mays averages an eye popping 8.9 yards per carry. Utah St dominated Weber St 45-7 in their opener.

The Red Wolves return 13 starters from a team that won the Sun Belt Conference Championship. They have owned the Sun Belt finishing first the last 4 out of 5 years. Unfortunately I the Defense has been exposed giving up 631 yards of offense per game. They rank last out of 128 FBS schools in defense. They are dismal in other categories too. They rank 117 in total offense,only averaging 12 points per game. The one bright spot is they don't turn the ball over. Something Utah St is proficient at.

In Utah St last 36 games, they have 11 defensive tds. Arkansas St will see better days, however, a heavy dose of Mays should control the clock and scoreboard.

2. ASU - 21....... 4 units......(line opened at 19)..*I was a bit surprised to see ASU traveling for this game. The Alamodome is notorious for home field. Perhaps that's why it's only a 3 TD spread.

ASU is coming off a huge shoot-out out lasting Texas Tech last week, and their confidence is soaring. ASU is currently ranked 9th in the nation in Red Zone proficiency, something they struggled at last year. Rbs Kelen Ballage and Demario Richard had huge games last week. Ballage tied the NCAA record for scoring with 8 Tds. Sun Devils are ranked 6th nationally in scoring with 56 points per game. The QB has a 75% completion rate.

I have tried to make a case for UTSA but even last weeks game scoring 14 against a bad Colorado St team is cause for concern. UTSA has given up more sacks than all but 5 FBS teams. ASU will be teeing off, as they are a Blitz happy squad anyway.

This game probably goes Over, but I'm going to trust that they again score at will putting the hammer down and winning by 30+.

 

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Rhode Island +31 over Harvard... 2 units... *I'm putting a little on Rhode Island to stay within the number at home. No doubt Harvard is the better team and are again favored to win the Ivy but both teams are relatively young on both sides of the ball, and the - 31 was the spread from ly in which Harvard prevailed 41-10. Harvard has to replace too many missing pieces to be such a heavy favorite on the road, and their first game. Don't get me wrong the Rams are pitiful, but I think Harvard having to replace the leading QB, leading RB, leading Wr, and several other key positions on both offense and defense is too much to ask...... WINNER..... Better to be lucky than good.

 

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Just added

ASU TT Over 41.....3 units..... I think they score at will... LOSS......ASU decided to take a break first half.

 

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Saturday Additions:

1. Akron/Marshall Over 56..... 4 units... I expect Thundering Herd to score often with a suspect Akron Defense. Zips should be able to get you 20,and if they do, this goes over easy.

2. Western Michigan /Illinois Over 53'...5 units.... My top rated total. WMU D is ranked #122 in S&P Rankings. I have the total in the 60's. I have great respect for Lovie but me thinks this could be a shoot-out.

3. Hawaii /Arizona Over 63....4 units.... Bow D is just what the Dr ordered for a Rodriguez offense that has stumbled out of the gate. Think Bows will get their's too.

4. North Dakota St +16 over Iowa.... 3 units.... Gone is Carson Wentz, however, his replacement will probably be playing on Sundays too. NDSU have won the FCS National Title 5 consecutive times. They are currently ranked #1. State won't be intimidated and have made a living upsetting larger schools from power conferences. No doubt K. Ferentz is a hell of a coach and has Iowa playing great D. There could be a small residual hang over from last weeks rivalry. I think they can hang within the number.

2. Oregon +3 over Nebraska...... 5 units..... My upset special. Not sure Cornhuskers can keep up with vaunted Duck attack. I think the wrong team is favored. Oregon should set the pace.

3. Tulane +6 over Navy... 4 units... Another game that appears the wrong team is favored. Both schools will grind it out. I had the game as a pick.. So I will grab the generous points.

 

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Add:

South Dakota +4' over No Dakota.... 3 units.... (-120)...Feel like the wrong team favored, but hey, you never know with a rivalry.

Butler - 18 over Who? Taylor? Ummm yeah.. 3 units... (-120)