Week 3 opening line report

soul train

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Jan 10, 2005
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Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

If it weren?t for the Raiders and the Titans, making NFL lines wouldn?t be so treacherous.

Fortunately for bookmakers, the Raiders are off this week. But the Titans are in action, traveling to Miami. Those betting at Pinnaclesports.com immediately got involved in the Titans-Dolphins matchup.

?This game has seen the most movement and highest volume (of bets) of any game so far,? a Pinnacle spokesperson said early Monday morning. ?The sharps seem to believe the Dolphins are ready to get into the win column and cover for the first time this season, moving the game from Miami opening -8 to where it currently stands at -10 ?.?

Let?s get this straight: Daunte Culpepper doesn?t look right, the Dolphins? offense line seems to have seriously regressed and the team just lost by 10 points at home to a bad Bills squad? and Miami is a double-digit favorite.

Just how bad does that make Tennessee?

?It?s a situation where you can?t make a number high enough (on Tennessee),? said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. ?As bad as the Dolphins have looked, they still have to be double-digit favorites.?

Scary but true. I tried stepping in with the Titans against San Diego this past Sunday, figuring Tennessee had respectable front-line players on defense and solid leadership under head coach Jeff Fisher.

But the Titans are practically unbettable. Their defense isn?t nearly as good as it looks on paper and the offense is way out of sync. They?re going to have to get rookie quarterback Vince Young on the field more in order to maintain a semblance of interest from their fans, even though Young isn?t nearly ready.

Then again, just about anybody could look better than Kerry Collins, including Billy Volek.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Which team do you make the favorite in the battle of disappointing 0-2 NFC South Division teams, Carolina or Tampa Bay? Seba would make the Bucs -1 ? with home-field advantage if Steve Smith misses a third straight game. If Smith plays, Seba would make Carolina a 1 ?-point favorite.

Wise guys must think Smith is finally going to be on the field because they bet the Panthers up from -1 to -3 at Pinnacle.

Washington Redskins at Houston Texans

Another early wise guy move was on the Washington-Houston game betting the Redskins down from -4 ? to 4.

?Sharp bettors love home dogs and this is no exception,? the Pinnacle spokesperson said about this matchup. ?Washington?s offense has done nothing to impress thus far and that may be the reason behind support being put behind the Texas.

?The line has moved to Houston +4. We wouldn?t be surprised if the game moves off the +4 very soon.?

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

I?m a little surprised to see New England as high as -6 ? hosting Denver in the Sunday night game. The Patriots do have double-revenge, but they have not looked impressive trailing the Bills by 10 at halftime and giving up 17 unanswered points to the Jets in the second half.

Not that Mike Shanahan would panic, but if the Broncos were to make a quarterback switch from Jake Plummer to Jay Cutler the line would shoot up.

?There would be a 2 ? to 3-point difference in the line,? Seba said. ?As good as Cutler might be, there?s a huge learning curve.?

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Seba made the Bills -4 ? against the Jets. That game currently is Buffalo -6. Seems like too many points, especially with Buffalo?s injuries on defense and the ineffectiveness of J.P. Losman.

?The Jets hang in there,? Seba said. ?They don?t quit. Buffalo doesn?t have the talent to be a touchdown favorite.?

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is -4 ? hosting St. Louis. The line is more a reflection on the Rams rather than how good the Cardinals are. The Rams? Week 1 victory against Denver seems less impressive. The Broncos failed to score a touchdown in barely nipping the Chiefs at home in overtime.

?The Rams lost to San Francisco twice last year and they couldn?t beat them this year,? Seba said. ?I just think the Rams are very average on both sides of the ball.?

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Then there?s the Monday night game, which could be one of the most emotional ever with the Saints returning to the Superdome where they last played in 2004 after being displaced last year because of Hurricane Katrina.

LVSC made Atlanta -3 against New Orleans for this game. That?s the current number and it probably will stay there.

?I think 3 is the right number,? Seba said. ?If we made it 3 ?, we?d have a lot of people taking the underdog.?
 
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